Sharing all info: December 2009

Thursday, December 31, 2009

Base Hits: Rumors, Recaps and Rebounds

The year would not be complete without Wayward O's 2009 Recaptacular! Unmissable reading.

*****

SI's Jon Heyman reports today that the Orioles are still indeed interested in signing Matt Holliday even though Andy MacPhail vehemently denied similiar reports from Fox Sports yesterday.

"The Orioles are laying in the weeds on this," according to a person familiar with Baltimore's thinking...

A report that the Orioles offered Holliday $130 million over eight years was denied by Orioles president/GM Andy MacPhail in The Baltimore Sun. However, MacPhail did not deny interest in the three-time All-Star...

I would still tend to believe MacPhail on this because, as John Sickels laid out nicely last offseason, Heyman is often a media mouthpiece for Scott Boras.

But if Heyman turns out to be correct, MacPhail and The Warehouse take a huge credibility hit.

*****

At The Bleacher Report, someone calling himself the Baseball Professor lays out the case for a rebound season for Nick Markakis, at least in the fantasy baseball sense.

*****

Mike Bordick is returning to Baltimore as a minor league offensive coordinator. At first glance, I would rather have Bordick working with guys on infield defense (which he says he may do as well)...

Bordick, 44, will be responsible for working with the club's prospects on offensive fundamentals such as base running, bunting and situational hitting.

Bordick was a pretty good baserunner and bunter (from what I cann recall) but I hope this is not indicative of the Trembley philosophy of "hit and run" and "agressive baserunning" spreading to the whole organization.

*****

Dave Mc at Weaver's Tantrum offers some thoughts on the "lukewarm" Hot Stove season for the Orioles.

*****

An entertaining excercise as Dan of Camden Crazies tries to quantify just how bad a major league player he would be.

*****

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

The Crystal Ball '10: Matt Wieters

I was at MASN's Blogger Night at Camden Yards the night that the decision to call Matt Wieters up to Baltimore was announced. The mood was electric. It is rare, in these dozen years of losing, to see that kind of excitement among Oriole fans and it was easy to see the crushing expectations that were placed on the shoulders of the young catcher.

Many fans were disappointed in Wieters 2009 debut and many national baseball writers are significantly lowering expectations.

Did those expectations get to him? Maybe but I doubt it. It may seem like Wieters marched through the minor leagues like a hot knife through butter but the reality is that at each level he struggled for a time, then destroyed the league. Outside of A+ Frederick, he has to make adjustments at every level.

I predicted it would take Wieters a full two months of games to adjust to major league pitching.



                      G    AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS    HR
May 29th-July 28th    39   .273   .322   .388   .711     3
July 29th - EOS       57   .298   .352   .428   .780     6

Those end of the season numbers include a torrid September/October where Wieters hit .333/.395/.486 with 4 homers.

Wieters was just short of being a league average hitter (97 OPS+) and as an American League catcher that was good enough for the third-best hitting catcher in the league. Not bad for a rookie.

So enormous expectations aside, it was a very solid rookie season for Matt Wieters. His defense improved as well and projections show that he will be above average in blocking pitches and by the end of the season his Caught Stealing numbers were right around average for a catcher not named Laird.

And the fact that he improved as the season went along gives me hope that he's making the necessary adjustments to succeed in the majors. I expect big thing from Wieters in 2009. Look, he OPS'ed 1.014 in the minors, I think it's doubtful that his power just disappeared. Besides, 5 of his 9 homers were to the opposite field. He even hit a homer off of Chad Bradford! You know how hard that is? Big power in that bat.

If you've seen my WAR projections, you know I expect Wieters to OPS .825 in his sophomore season with a chance for a quantum leap to even more. Relax, Orioles fans. our savior is here.

*Keith Law photo courtesy of Matt Wieters Facts

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Climate Change Photoshopped

Michael Fumento has been taking on the Hysteria Mongers for much of his writing career. His book "The Myth of Heterosexual Aids" debunked the political campaign to make the American public believe the risk of getting AIDS was widespread and deserving of the billions channeled to research for finding a "cure" when the "at risk" population was much much smaller.

History has proven him right.

Now, he takes on the global warmists. In the most recent Forbes he writes:

The cover of Al Gore's new book, Our Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis, features a satellite image of the globe showing four major hurricanes--results, we're meant to believe, of man-made global warming. All four were photoshopped. Which is nice symbolism, because in a sense the whole hurricane aspect of warming has been photoshopped.

Most interesting to me was Fumento's later reference to a 2005 "study" predicting much greater hurricane activity along America's coasts.

For many millions of American homeowners, the 2005 tempest tirade was hardly just academic. Half a year later, a company called Risk Management Solutions (RMS) issued a five-year forecast of hurricane activity predicting U.S. insured hurricane losses would be 40% higher than the historical average. RMS is the world leader in "catastrophe modeling," and insurance companies use those models to set premium rates charged to homeowners as well as by reinsurance companies and others.

With four years of data in, losses are actually running far below historical levels and at less than half the rate that RMS predicted. A lot of individuals and a lot of companies have grossly overpaid.

This made me recall one of the things Pennsylvania DEP boss John Hanger told the Daily Times editorial board this fall. Specifically, that insurance companies were increasing their rates due to evidence of global warming. It seems he was quite right, they were. But only because these insurance companies happily relied on this "study" that turned out to be incredibly WRONG!. The insurers profited mightily. Homeowners paid through the nose.

Hanger was brought to us by Rep. Greg Vitali who continues to push stricter state government mandates for more expensive "clean" energy. Here's my column about that meeting. I wish I'd known more about the RMS forecast and the gouging of the insurance-buying public at that time.

The Empty Suit Presidency

Shelby Steele's parable for Obama's America: The Emperor's New Clothes.

America's primary race problem today is our new "sophistication" around racial matters. Political correctness is a compendium of sophistications in which we join ourselves to obvious falsehoods ("diversity") and refuse to see obvious realities (the irrelevance of diversity to minority development). I would argue further that Barack Obama's election to the presidency of the United States was essentially an American sophistication, a national exercise in seeing what was not there and a refusal to see what was there—all to escape the stigma not of stupidity but of racism.

Barack Obama, elegant and professorially articulate, was an invitation to sophistication that America simply could not bring itself to turn down. If "hope and change" was an empty political slogan, it was also beautiful clothing that people could passionately describe without ever having seen.

Good stuff.

And so is his comparing Obama to Reagan:

The nature of this emptiness becomes clear in the contrast between him and Ronald Reagan. Reagan reached the White House through a great deal of what is called "individuating"—that is he took principled positions throughout his long career that jeopardized his popularity, and in so doing he came to know who he was as a man and what he truly believed.

He became Ronald Reagan through dissent, not conformity. And when he was finally elected president, it was because America at last wanted the vision that he had evolved over a lifetime of challenging conventional wisdom. By the time Reagan became president, he had fought his way to a remarkable certainty about who he was, what he believed, and where he wanted to lead the nation.

Mr. Obama's ascendancy to the presidency could not have been more different. There seems to have been very little individuation, no real argument with conventional wisdom, and no willingness to jeopardize popularity for principle. To the contrary, he has come forward in American politics by emptying himself of strong convictions, by rejecting principled stands as "ideological," and by promising to deliver us from the "tired" culture-war debates of the past. He aspires to be "post-ideological," "post-racial" and "post-partisan," which is to say that he defines himself by a series of "nots"—thus implying that being nothing is better than being something. He tries to make a politics out of emptiness itself.

As usual, Steele insightfulness provokes and enlightens. But many of Obama's most "sophisticated" fans will continue to oooh and ahhh over their hero's "new clothes."

Al Qaeda, Al Schmaeda

In the aftermath of the failed airline bombing attempt, Holman Jenkins doesn't think airport security is nearly as bad as everyone is saying.

Al Qaeda may be incapacitated, but its leaders aren't dumb. So what if their hapless messengers only embarrass themselves and burn their legs? Al Qaeda can still count on the sizeable damage we will inflict on ourselves through an airport security apparatus that specializes in expensive political displays of barn-door closing that seldom have any real security payoff.

Read it all.

The Worm Pleads

Only 17 to 35 years for Worman?

At least he's serving it concurrently with the 120 years he got in his federal case.

Anyone who doubts that monsters live among us should read the details of his crimes.

Pastor Shoots, Kills Son

This doesn't sound like your typical shooting.

Prediction: Father will do time. But charges will be significantly reduced.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

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Revising my Initial WAR Projections for 2010

I'm a one trick pony these days but it's the slowest part of the offseason...so another WAR post as we try to peer into the murky future...

My initial WAR projections projected the Orioles to possess a Win Talent of 83. Others, whose opinion I respect, thought that my projections were too optimistic given the pitching staff Baltimore would field. (Keep in mind, I was quite pessimistic last season compared to most...)

I then decided to scale back my projections a bit. I decided to use CHONE projections which tend to be less optimistic than Bill James in general and revisit the pitching projections with a more critical eye.

Hitters

I did CHONE projections straight down the line except for playing time. I adjusted Adam Jones' playing time down (450 PA) because he has yet to play a full season and I wanted to be reasonable about the possibility of injury. Before changing my pitching and with only two minor tweaks to the batters, this still left my Win Talent at 81.6.

The tweaks: Nick Markakis is NOT a sub-.850 OPS player. Sorry, I don't buy it. So I nudged his numbers up to an .850 OPS. Also, I do not believe Matt Wieters is a sub-.800 OPS hitter in 2010. I adjusted his offensive numbers up to an equivalent of .825 OPS. (BTW, ZiPS predicted an .827 OPS for Wieters before the 2009 season, comparing him to Johnny Bench. This season, ZiPS has him at at .773 OPS. What changed? 385 PAs in the majors? I think we have to take projections on rookies and young players in general with a grain of salt...)

Here is the lineup with rough batting lines:



            PA    AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS
C 
Wieters     550   .289  .350   .475   .825
Moeller     145   .240  .300   .330   .630

1B
Wigginton   550   .269  .323   .446   .769
Atkins      145   .257  .326   .410   .736

2B
Roberts     645   .275  .355   .430   .785
Andino       50   .244  .299   .365   .664

SS
Izturis     600   .261  .306   .342   .648
Andino       95   .244  .299   .365   .664

3B
Atkins      500   .257  .326   .410   .736
Wigginton    50   .269  .323   .446   .769
Bell        145   .231  .299   .362   .661

LF
Reimold     500   .275  .355   .477   .832
Pie         150   .267  .327   .421   .748
Scott        45   .256  .335   .469   .804

CF
Jones       450   .283  .338   .472   .810
Pie         245   .267  .327   .421   .748

RF
Markakis    695   .304  .369   .481   .850

DH
Reimold     245   .275  .355   .477   .832
Scott       400   .256  .335   .469   .804
Wigginton    50   .269  .323   .446   .769

The Pitching

I went back over my pitching with a fine toothed comb looking for holes. Here's what I came up with for the rotation, all ERA's are in terms of FIP.

I have Jeremy Guthrie penciled in for 190 innings, fewer than he had last season. Guthrie has pitched more innings each season in the majors, even when he has struggled. (He pitched 200 innings in '09.) I can't imagine he will be as bad as he was last year, nor quite as good as his first two seasons. I bumped his FIP up to 4.80 but left everything else alone.

My Kevin Millwood projection makes sense. I only have him down for 165 innings figuring he will break down a bit during the season. 4.80 FIP was what he had last season and is the highest he has had for a full season. It's reasonable to think that projection is sound.

Matusz doesn't seem to be the kind to get hurt...just not that kind of pitcher. Still, I only have him down for 170 innings...guess I could bump that to 165 and bump his 4.00 FIP up a quarter run, well above fan projections, Bill James and his performance last year. The guy is "pitcher" in the truest sense of the word...I see him improving, not backsliding.

Chris Tillman struck me as the likeliest candidate for injury and/or struggles. Not sure exactly why I feel that why but he looks like he overthrows at times and he will be just 22 next season. I knocked down his innings and bumped up the FIP.

Brad Bergesen is a poor man's Rick Porcello. He may not be as good as last year but I don't think he's going to go the Josh Towers route either. He's a groundball machine and he walks virtually nobody. I bumped the FIP up a bit but I think he pitches his fair share of innings at the back of the rotation.

That's a pretty solid rotation, a bunch of guys who, barring injury, have the opportunity to stay in the rotation all season despite any struggles they may have. All will pitch 140+ innings with guys like Jake Arrieta, Troy Patton, Jason Berken and David Hernandez ready to take the mound in case of injury. No one should get rushed up from Norfolk or Bowie this season.

The addition of Mike Gonzalez makes the core of the Oriole bullpen much better. We could debate the merits of Baltimore paying a premium for a "closer" this offseason but adding Gonzalez to Jim Johnson, Koji Uehara and Kam Mickolio makes a formidable core. Add Cla Meredith, Mark Hendrickson, David Hernandez and Matt Albers and you have a solid, if not great relief corp. And I think that the O's have some intriguing arms in Norfolk this season like Jim Miller, Alberto Castillo, Armando Gabino and Wilfrido Perez.

Projections for primary rotation and relief:



            IP     ERA
Guthrie     190    4.80
Millwood    165    4.80
Tillman     140    5.50
Matusz      165    4.25
Bergesen    170    4.40

Gonzalez     65    3.50
Johnson      70    4.20
Uehara       50    3.85
Mickolio     50    4.50
Hendrickson  70    4.75
Meredith     45    4.22
Hernandez    60    5.25

Now, take a look back at all those projections. What's your impression? Optimistic? Unrealistic? Pie in the sky?

I think not. I think they're fairly pessimistic if anything. And I still get...80 wins.

Obviously, injury is always a concern. The Orioles are not very deep and a rash of serious injuries lands Baltimore back in the basement chasing 100 losses again. But if the young core holds and improves even modestly, this team will at least flirt with .500 this season.

Of course, we'll adjust this as the Orioles get closer to Opening Day and the roster comes into focus.

My updated 2010 WAR Spreadsheet is here.

Monday, December 28, 2009

Looking Back at My WAR Predictions for 2009...

I was preparing my WAR spreadsheet for 2010 and took a look at my 2009 sheet. I won't go over every gory detail but thought I would list a few I got right and a few I got really, really wrong.

Best Predictions for Hitters:

Matt Wieters

Predicted: 2.0 WAR
Actual: 1.9 WAR

I tempered my enthusiasm and basically got this right. A slow start but a furious finish is pretty much what I expected.

Cesar Izturis

Predicted 1.2 WAR
Actual: 1.3 WAR

He was who we thought he was. Flashy glove and not much else.

Brian Roberts

Predicted: 3.6 WAR
Actual: 3.4 WAR

Another steady year from Roberts. Pretty easy to figure this one.

Worst Batter Projections:

Aubrey Huff

Predicted: 1.7 WAR
Actual: -0.4 WAR

I thought Huff would take a big step back from 2008 but I didn't see the utter collapse. Ouch.

Nick Markakis

Predicted: 6.1 WAR
Actual: 2.2 WAR

I predicted, loudly and often, that Markakis would have a breakout year in 2009. Instead, he took a step back.

Ryan Freel

Predicted: 0.7 WAR
Actual: -0.2 WAR

I didn't expect big things from Freel but thought he would add some value (mostly defensive) up the middle. No chance.

I won't even bother doing the pitchers. Sure, I got Uehara's value right but the rest of the rotation and bullpen was such a mess, there was no way to predict who would be pitching by the time September rolled around.

If you want to see more, my 2009 WAR Spreadsheet is here.

Sunday, December 27, 2009

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Saturday, December 26, 2009

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