How Baltimore Can Win The East '09: The Case Against the Rays

I don't have 5 points in my case against Tampa Bay because the pitfalls for the Rays lie in three broad areas.

1. A Defensive Regression?

The Rays had the AL's worst Defensive Efficiency Ratio in 2007 and the best in 2008. I am doubtful that they can continue to be that good in 2008. Jason Bartlett's UZR has declined every season and he was only average last year. Ditto for Iwamura at second. Longoria is a plus defender. The outfield is a good defensive unit assuming Carl Crawford stays healthy this year.

But it doesn't look like a team that can lead the league in DER again. They may be fine but I'm looking for a regression. Which dovetails into...

2. A Mediocre Offense

Pitching and defense masked this problem in '08 but when the Baltimore Orioles outscore you, you can't really call your offense championship caliber.

The only significant addition was Pat Burrell who represents a modest upgrade from Cliff Floyd at DH (when you adjust for Burrell's switch from the NL to the AL). It may be better but outside of Longoria there is nobody on that team that will strike fear into opposing pitchers. Without some improvement, the Rays will have a hard time repeating.

3. Kazmir/Garza/Shields

More than any other factor, as these guys go, so go the Rays. David Price will start the season in the bullpen. Hammel and Sonnanstine will be average at best. The hopes of the 2009 Rays season rest on the health (no guarantee of that for Kazmir) and effectiveness of those arms.

Conclusion

The Rays will be formidable in 2009. They have many young arms, should have a nice bullpen and won't embarass themselves at the plate. But they had a ton of things go just their way last year and the best they can hope for is an 86 win season. Formidable, but not overwhelming.