I just left county Democratic Chairman Cliff Wilson at party headquarters in Media where he predicted Joe Sestak will beat Arlen Specter, possibly by as many as 10 percentage points.
Furthermore, he said he never understood why national and state party leaders ever thought Specter would be a better Democratic candidate than Sestak in the fall against Republican Pat Toomey.
Specter's primary problem is that though he won the votes of numerous Democrats in general elections over the years, he was never popular at all with the party's core primary voters. Wilson's analysis makes perfect sense because I agree with it.
I think Specter loses big in the fall if he wins the primary. But I think Sestak has his own problems. The rest of the state is not a liberal as he is. And admiral or no admiral he voted with a Democratic agenda in Washington that is not at all popular right now.
The question in the fall will be, if Sestak wins, which candidate can paint the other as the more radical. Sestak, for instance, gets an F from the NRA for his postions on gun control. And he's a down the line liberal on other issues as well. If he can convince voters he's really a moderate because of his military service, despite his very liberal voting record, then he will have a good chance to win. If however, Toomey can successfully hang Sestak's voting record around his neck, less so.
Anyway, here's Cliff, who said while the nasty weather may depress some turnout, especially in areas where people have to walk to the polls, he doesn't see it necessarily helping either candidate much. A few months ago he said he thought turnout could hit 50 percent. Now he won't be surprised if its as low as between 25 to 33 percent.
No comments:
Post a Comment