Pat and Joe in Dead heat? Not Really

The headline sez:

Polls show Toomey and Sestak locked in dead heat

But the story actually makes fun of the polls because they are all over the place. So how to make sense of them? You average them out, like they do at Real Clear Politics.

As of this morning, Toomey leads Sestak by an average of 3.2 percentage points. That's within the margin of error you say, fair enough. But the bad news for Sestak supporters is that Toomey has consistantly led by a little or a lot throughout the entire campaign. The only poll that has Joe ahead is a wildly unreliable PPP poll that is bought and paid for by Democrats.

RCP Average 10/17 - 10/26 -- 46.2 43.0 Toomey +3.2

Morning Call Tracking 10/23 - 10/26 457 LV 46 41 Toomey +5
CNN/Time 10/20 - 10/26 823 LV 49 45 Toomey +4
Reuters/Ipsos 10/22 - 10/24 400 LV 46 46 Tie
Franklin & Marshall 10/18 - 10/24 489 LV 43 36 Toomey +7
Rasmussen Reports 10/21 - 10/21 750 LV 48 44 Toomey +4
PPP (D) 10/17 - 10/18 718 LV 45 46 Sestak +1

This race isn't a dead heat. It isn't really within the margin of error. If Sestak is going win he is going to have to overcome being behind in the last few days of the campaign. He is also going to have to overcome GOP enthusiasm, anti-Democratic disgust and get a big turnout in Philadelphia. That's a pretty tall order.