Mark Reynolds Coming to Baltimore

The Orioles have acquired 27-year old 3B Mark Reynolds from the Arizona Diamondbacks, reportedly for RP David Hernandez and RP Kam Mickolio.
I am not really sure how I feel about this deal. Really, it depends on how the rest of the offseason goes. But even Reynolds, in a vacuum, leaves me conflicted.

If you have read my blog for even a little bit, you know how much I love power bats. Love 'em. It's why I keep banging the drum for Luke Scott. It's why I was pimping Adam Dunn for Baltimore this offseason and in the 2008 offseason. It's why I love the potential of Adam Jones and Matt Wieters. Power. Power makes the offense go. It's a game changer and the Orioles don't have nearly enough.

Reynolds brings power in spades. Over the past three seasons, Reynolds has an ISO .247. That's 9th in baseball over that span, ahead of guys like Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun and Dan Uggla. On top of that, nobody ahead of him on that list plays anything other than DH or first base. According to HitTrackerOnline, the True Distance of his average homer was 415.6, tops among the leading home run hitters in baseball. If you can get that kind of power from your third baseman, you take it. Anytime. Sick, sick power. 32 homers in 2010...that was a down year.

Of course, I'm leaving out the downside. Reynolds hit .198 last season. .198...that's it. I don't care much about batting average by itself but when you hit .198, it's really tough to build enough good on top of that to make the overall offensive numbers look respectable.

Not that Reynolds didn't try. His walk rate was 13.9% in 2010. That was 9th in baseball. He has a good eye, something his 200+ strikeouts in each of the last three seasons seems to contradict. I don't care much about strikeouts either...but 200+ consistently is enough to raise anyone's eyebrow. That and the fact that his K rate has risen in each of the last three seasons too. And his Line Drive rates have dropped.

But his walk rate has increased over that span too. And he was hampered by a bad hammy late in the season and the Diamondbacks, in an effort to cut down on the strikeouts, started tinkering with his swing mid-season. And even with all this working against him, he put up an OPS of .754 (98 OPS+) Those are serviceable numbers, even with a .198 average.

The O's are only committed to him for 2 years. Maybe he gets healthy and Jim Pressley (the new Oriole hitting coach) sees a way to get him back on track. But I think he's going to turn me into a manic-depressive every at bat as I experience ecstasy everytime he launches one into the leftfield seats and despairing when he strikes out four times in a game.

As for the guys Baltimore sent to the desert, losing David Hernandez is a bit of a blow. I think Hernandez will be, someday, a successful major league pitcher. However, his path is almost certainly that of a reliever at this point and you shouldn't hesitate to part with relief arms to improve the club. Hernandez did manage to increase his K rate to something close to his minor league rate in 2010 but he was still essentially a flyball pitcher and figures to do better in Arizona. I have little doubt that he may have success going forward but he won't be as valuable as Reynolds has the chance to be.

Kam Mickolio is another story. Mickolio was a top relief prospect coming into the 2010 season. He's got a live fastball and was seen by many as a future closer. But he has struggled with wildness, struggled a bit during brief stints in the majors and will be 27 next season. Again, he may develop into a top notch reliever but there's no guarantee. And he is, after all, just a relief prospect.

I have no idea how all of this will work out. As you can see, I'm back and forth on Reynolds. I don't even know if this means the end of Josh Bell either since Reynolds could be moved over to first base. But there's a lot of upside here and the O's didn't give up any of their core building blocks. I'm cautiously pleased.

How Berken and Hernandez Emerged From the Crucible

Last season, the Oriole rotation was so suspect that you had to expect that some young pitchers were going to be thrown to the wolves. And they were. One was 25-year-old Jason Berken, a right handed pitcher with a total of 5 AAA starts under his belt and another was 24-year-old David Hernandez (who only had 11 starts in Norfolk), another righty. Neither was on any top prospect lists. There were no expectations.

Hernandez posted a 5.42 ERA (6.61 FIP, 5.60 xFIP) over 101.1 innings and Berken posted a 6.54 ERA (5.34 FIP, 5.10 xFIP) over 119.2 innings. It wasn't pretty and it appeared that the Orioles were fine with using these two "non-prospects" as cannon fodder.

Berken and Hernandez will always be linked in my mind. They were called up around the same time, they both were rushed, they both struggled mightily...and they both showed a lot of guts in the process. These guys got absolutely shelled in 2009 but they never seemed to get discouraged. There were no slumped shoulders or Daniel Cabrera-style implosions when things went badly. They stuck to the plan, kept working and did the best they could.

Neither were locks to make the team out of spring training but they both made the team; Berken in the bullpen and Hernandez in the rotation. Hernandez struggled again as a starter but has joined Berken in the pen to form a nice 1-2 late inning combo.

Berken has a 1.66 ERA (3.09 FIP, 3.93 xFIP) over 43.1 innings. His strikeout rate is up, his walk and home run rate is down. Hernandez has a 2.11 ERA over 12.1 innings since moving to the pen and his strikeout rate has doubled. They look to be big pieces of the Oriole bullpen in the years to come.

We certainly know they have the makeup to handle the assignment.

5 Things To Watch - Spring Training 2010 (Final)

1. Chris Tillman - I didn't see this happening but Tillman did not win the 5th spot in the rotation, losing the job to David Hernandez. Tillman will start the season in Norfolk which isn't the end of the world but hopefully he's down there to work on the cut fastball. In terms of dominating AAA, the guys already done it.

2. The Bench - The only shock to me is that Ty Wigginton is still on the club. I felt sure that he would be traded before Opening Day and the team would carry Michael Aubrey or Scott Moore. Perhaps the Brian Roberts injury kept Wigginton on the team.

Justin Turner played well. Robert Andino will start the season on the club but Turner may play his way to Baltimore and push Andino out of the organization. Andino has hit better this spring but still doesn't walk and looked shaky in the field. Turner has a better bat and he looked good at short for Norfolk, at least the two times I saw him.

3. Health - Brad Bergesen and Will Ohman look to be fully healthy . Nolan Reimold is recovering (and admittedly, he has looked like he's moving well, better than I expected at this point) but is not 100%. Felix Pie will be the starting left fielder on Opening Day but Reimold will avoid the DL. Koji Uehara has hurt his leg yet again and may not be ready for Opening Day.

4. The Battle for the Backup Backstop - Chad Moeller did nothing to lose the job but lost it anyway. In a mild upset, Craig Tatum wins the backup catcher job. Not sure how I feel about that but for the first time in the last four years, the team went with the younger upstart rather than the steadier veteran.

5. Shaking Out The Pen - Mike Gonzalez, Jim Johnson Mark Hendrickson will be joined by Cla Meredith who seems to have recaptured his pre-2009 form. Will Ohman pitched himself into the left specialist role and showed that his arm is healthy. Jason Berken got lucky that David Hernandez beat out Chris Tillman and opened a spot for a second longman in the Oriole pen. Berken has not been good this spring but he'll go north. Matt Albers had a decent spring but got lucky that Uehara will start the season on the DL.

David Hernandez Has Won a Rotation Spot?

Saw this from Oriole beat reporter Britt Ghiroli's Twitter account:

Hernandez smiled secretly when I bugged him about the 5th starter spot. Safe to say he's gonna be the #orioles fifth guy.

That's a shocker to me. Even though Dave Trembley has said all spring that there is an open competition for the 5th spot in the rotation, I certainly didn't believe him. But given Trembley's annoying tendency to take Spring Training performances way too seriously (see Alfredo Simon 2009), I guess I should have seen this coming.

David Hernandez has struck out 20 over 15 innings this spring and only walked 3. A strikeout pitcher in the minors, I suppose that the Oriole brass may believe he has figured it out again after only striking out 68 over 101.1 innings in 2009. I like Hernandez's makeup. Even when he was getting shelled last season, he never seemed to lose his composure. I just wasn't sure he was cut out for the rotation.

Chris Tillman has nothing left to prove in terms of performance in AAA. He dominated the International League and was the best pitcher in the league not named "Tommy Hanson". The only reason they might be sending him down would be to work on his control. He has walked 9 in 16 innings this spring and when I saw him, he was running deep into counts even when he was doing well. This was always a concern for Tillman and if that's why they are sending him down, I guess I can live with that.

To recap, not crazy about this move but you can make the argument. I just wonder if the Orioles are making that argument or just making a snap decision based on Spring Training stats.

Oriole Hurlers In Review

Just some random observations about our rotation...

Brad Bergesen

The rookie keeps impressing. He still needs a bit better strikeout rate (something closer to 6.0 K/9 would make me feel better) but he's doing all the other things a pitcher with his skill set needs to do to compete at the major league level. He's killing worms (49.9% ground ball rate), he's not walking guys (2.32 BB/9) and he's keeping the ball in the park (0.85 HR/9). You've got to love the attitude, the guy doesn't quit or get shell shocked. His strikeouts are a bit lacking (4.56 K/9) but he looks to have the skills to be a legitimate back of the rotation starter.

David Hernandez

Another guy who keeps succeeding on pure will power at this point. Hernandez came to Baltimore with a rep as a guy who could pile up the strikeouts but that hasn't happened yet (so far he's only striking out guys at Bergesen levels...). He has kept the ball in the park (0.80 HR/9) but is giving up fly balls at a 55% rate...so that HR rate is bound to rise and his ERA with it.

But give credit to Hernandez. He's not able to strike guys out at a rate that he's used to but he's worked around that, kept his head about him and battled the best he could. Hernanadez may not ultimately succeed but it won't be because of his makeup.

Jeremy Guthrie

Guthrie gave up his 23rd home run of the season on Saturday, one short of his career high...and it's not even August.

Guthrie is on pace to surrender 37 home runs, surpassing Sidney Ponson, Scott McGregor and Robin Roberts for the club record. According to HitTrackerOnline.com, damn near all the homers given up by Guthrie are legitimate, almost none of them are counted as lucky shots.

Here's hoping that Guthrie's just having a bad year. Better for him to return to form in 2010 than in 2009 in my opinion.

Rich Hill/Jason Berken

With the impending promotion of Chris Tillman, the fates of Hill and Berken are linked in competition to remain with the club.

Jason Berken really doesn't have the resume to be in the majors at this point. He was promoted to AAA due to a lack of arms and then promptly to the majors for the same reason. He can be a useful arm in the future but could use some more seasoning in an environment where he's not getting shelled every start. The one plus for Berken...he has a FIP of 4.76 versus his actual ERA of 6.55 which indicates that he may have been pitching better than the surface results. But I'm guessing that's small consolation to Berken.

Hill is not good. There's no doubt about it. A 7.64 ERA and a 5.13 FIP. But there are two guys struggling in the rotation and only one Chris Tillman to call up from Norfolk. If you're asking me to pick a guy for cannon fodder, I'll take the veteran and save the psyche of the kid. Fans can be angry about Hill taking the mound every 5 days but the eye has to be on 2010 and 2011. Let Berken go work things out in Norfolk/Bowie. Hill can fall on his sword for the next two months.

Chris Tillman

His stats in Norfolk:

                W-L   IP    ERA   K   BB   HR
Tillman - AAA   8-6  96.2  2.70  99   26    5

   

His last outing was not good but I imagine he'll be better than most of what we already have.

Keep Your Eye On The Ball

Last night's loss to the Yankees (via a walk-off Matsui homer) was a bummer. No doubt. But where's the sense of perspective? The blogs, forums and comments on various sources for venting spleens are full of angst, bitterness and lots of self-pity.

But let's keep our eye on the ball Oriole fans. We trotted out a rookie pitcher who didn't have his best stuff but battled and scratched his way through 6 innings all the while holding arguably the best lineup in the league to one run. 3 hits, 3 walks, 4 strikeouts. To paraphrase the song, if you can pitch there, you can pitch anywhere.

And our rookie catcher went 1-3 with a walk.

Losses still suck but let's keep in in perspective. Last night was a win for the Orioles in many ways.

Koji...See You In September

Koji Uehara is out for 8 weeks with a partially torn tendon in his elbow.

I keep beating this drum but...man, The Warehouse did a lousy job building a viable rotation this winter.

Good news for David Hernandez. Dave...it's your time. You're about to get an 8-start audition to show you can strike out major league hitters. Don't let us down!

With Rich Hill, Jason Berken and David Hernandez as 3/5 of the rotation...it could get ugly quick. All Baltimore fans need to desperately hope thise guys improve.