Base Hits: Russ Smith is a Tool, What Have They Done For Us Lately and B-Rob Again.

Russ Smith wrote a poorly supported article on why the Orioles are not looking at the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel. I was going to go on a rant but Kevin Lomax did a very good job over at Eutaw Street Hooligans. Besides, he's willing to curse in print.



Also, Shysterball linked to the story and the comments do a fair job of poking holes in Smith's assertions too.



Only two new things to add...



1) Why do some fans/analysts (like Smith) think they can observe ballplayers' mannerisms in the field and draw conclusions about their mood/dedication/love of the game? They're professional ballplayers, not wildlife.



2) As much as I like Brad Bergesen, anybody who sees Brian Matusz's stuff and polish and concludes that he does not have a better chance at being very good than Bergesen just isn't a bright guy.



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Roar from 34 continues to be the source for all things Eutaw Street as he notes that Luke Scott, in less than two seasons, is closing in on Rafael Palmiero as the Oriole leader in launching homers that reach the boulevard that runs in front of The Warehouse.



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Since August 1st:

* Melvin Mora is hitting .291/.334/.437 with 4 homers.

* Matt Wieters is hitting .243/.292/.333 with two homers, 7 walks and 30 strikeouts. I've got to admit that, hype aside, I expected Wieters to be hitting better by this stage of the season. Not particularly worried, just resetting my expectations for his learning curve.

* Oscar Salazar is hitting .395/.442/.632 with 2 homers. Granted, this is only over 38 at bats but the Padres are starting to see some usefulness in the guy beyond pinch hitter and he has gotten a few starts over the last couple weeks.

* Cla Meredith is posting a 5.94 ERA in 16.1 IP with 10 walks and 11 strikeouts. So far, he is what we thought he was. Didn't we already get this kind of production from Matt Albers? Were we that sure Salazar couldn't platoon at 1st/3rd/DH next season? Really sure?

* Jeremy Guthrie is 3-4 with a 3.83 ERA. I fully expected Guthrie to rebound a bit next season but he's managed to turn it around in August. Make no mistake, Guthrie will be a big part of this team's fortunes over the next two seasons.

* Felix Pie is hitting .321/.391/.605 with 6 home runs. He's not this good but he's pretty damned good and finally starting to show it.

* Luke Scott is hitting .206/.314/.363 with 3 home runs. This season notwithstanding, Scott can't hit lefties and his success against southpaws in '09 is a fluke. I think he makes an intriguing platoon partner with Ty Wigginton (Wiggy has a career .846 OPS against lefties) which is a moot point since Dave Trembley seems very averse to L/R platoons.

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Finally, a good piece on Brian Roberts by Jeff Zrebiec in The Baltimore Sun. Zrebiec mentions Roberts' streakiness but I've never considered Roberts a streaky hitter. Which gets me thinking...hmmmmm.....

Base Hits: 7/20/2009

I posted this rant over at Camden Crazies in response to some tweets by frostking. I figured I'd repost some of that here...

OK, so this trade in a vacuum is 31-year old Salazar for 26-year old middle reliever. But in this case I don’t care how old Salazar is because he is a) cheap and under control (not even a full season of MLB experience yet) and b) the Orioles have a need for a bat at both corner spots in the infield, certainly this year and even more so in 2010.

The Warehouse will not pick up the option on Mora and will probably not resign Huff unless Aubrey is ready to take a big paycut. That leaves Ty Wigginton to play third base and…who’d on first? Salazar could have filled that need and given Brandon Snyder (who is not exactly tearing up AAA) more time to develop. It’s cheap offense and buys time for one of our few position player prospects. That’s value.

People act like the only choice was to trade either Salazar or Pie. There was another. Cut Melvin Mora. MacPhail seems to understand the concept of a sunk cost and with only $3 million still owed to Mora, it would have been fairly easy to do. Even with Salazar’s poor defense at third, he would still more valuable than Mora. Shift Wiggy to third and let Salazar get ABs at first, the defense is even less of an issue.

Cla Meredith is bad away from PETCO and against AL competition:

http://dempseysarmy.blogspot.com/2009/07/oscar-salazar-gone-to-san-diego.html

The splits are ugly and he may contribute absolutely nothing to the team.

A team like Baltimore needs to be creative in filling holes. They can’t attract top free agents quite yet. Who’s going to play third base next year? Or first? Retreads, has-beens or “good field, no-hit” types. Seems to me Salazar would have been at least a shot at filling the spot cheaply and maybe even produce on a regular basis. His major league OPS is .880 . His last two years in Norfolk he’s had an OPS well over .900 . Worth a shot, I think.

Now maybe MacPhail has irons in the fire that will garner Baltimore a 1B or 3B for next year. But I gave him the benefit of the doubt with the rotation this year and they really didn’t have a great plan in place for that deficiency. On the face of it, I’m calling this trade shortsighted.

I'd say this is my last word on the subject but I know if Salazar starts tearing up the NL West I'll be back here stamping my feet like a petulant child...

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A few loosely related things...

I finally got around to reading the Sports Illustrated Earl Weaver "Where are they now?" article.

I've toyed with the idea of writing an article about how easy it is for an Oriole fan to get on board with basic Sabermetric principals because Earl was employing them years before they had a name. But I'm not that talented a writer and Tom Verducci basically did it here.

Semi-related, former Oriole farmhhand Steve Dalkowski is being inducted into The Shrine of the Eternals. Read all about the amazing career (or lack thereof) at The Baseball Analysts and via links at Roar From 34.

So, regarding the Earl Weaver/Sabermetrics link, there was this about former Oriole manager Paul Richards:

As a manager, Richards was thrown out of games more frequently than anyone else....

He was the first manager known to enforce pitch counts to protect young arms from injury. Previously undiscovered documents reveal that Richards tracked his hitters' on-base percentages before that statistic even had a name and decades before it became a cornerstone of baseball analysis. He computed catchers' earned run averages years before the sabermetric community thought of it.

So the roots of statistical analysis (and evidently hot-headedness) run deep in Oriole managerial history.

Also, this nugget about Dalkowski:

However, to the extent that this card has any value whatsoever, it is solely due to the legend that is Dalkowski, the inspiration for Nick LaLoosh, the character portrayed by Tim Robbins in "Bull Durham."

Ron Shelton, who wrote and directed the 1988 movie classic, will introduce Dalkowski at tomorrow's induction ceremony. Shelton was a minor league second baseman for the Orioles during the '60s, yet, according to George Vecsey in an article in today's The New York Times, he and Dalkowski have surprisingly never met.

I had forgotten all about the Dalkowski's Nuke La Loosh connection and that Ron Shelton had been an Oriole farmhand. Makes me love that movie even more...

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Some new developments of note for Oriole Spring Training...Sarasota has cleared a major hurdle in luring the Orioles to Sarasota for Spring Training. The City of Sarasota has approved a measure to turn the stadium complex over to the city for $1 allowing the county to make a $31 million bid for the team. County officials and the Orioles report they are close to an agreement.

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So I switched from Sirius to XM so I could listen to baseball on the radio. It's nice.

Anyway, I was listening to MLB Home Plate and Aubrey Huff was scheduled to join the network for an interview during the 11 o'clock hour but he never showed up.

If I was a conspiracy theorist, I would imagine that it is because he is on the verge of being traded and the club doesn't want him talking to the media. If I was...

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Screech is tearing up the International League. Jeff Fiorentino in Norfolk:

               AVG   OBP   SLG   2B   3B   HR   K   BB
Fiorentino    .317  .388  .527   18    4    7  44   28
 
 

Not too shabby. That gives him a MLE OPS of .793. Maybe he could be trade bait? Maybe he's finally breaking through? A long shot but worth thinking about. And good for Jeff.

Oscar Salazar Gone to San Diego!

Oscar is gone and in return we receive a mediocre (at best) reliever. Awesome.

First, good luck to Oscar and here's hoping he gets more playing time on the west coast than he did here. Salazar should have been taking at bats from Aubrey Huff and (especially) Melvin Mora, two players who are not going to be back with the club anyway. Instead he rotted on the bench and was brilliant in his limited opportunities at the plate.

Anyhoo...

Andy MacPhail gives this quote from Roch's blog:

Meredith, 26, is a submarine-stylist who was described by Andy MacPhail, president of baseball operations, as a "poor man's Chad Bradford."

"He gets a lot of ground balls and can pitch every other day," MacPhail said. "The ground ball ratio becomes more important later in the summer in our ballpark."

Well, he does get a lot of grounders. Even this year when he seems to be off his game he is inducing grounders at a 62.2% clip. And I like submariners too. But is he anything like Chad Bradford, even a poor man's version?

Bradford has only given up more than 1 home run in a season twice. He gave up 5 his rookie season and gave up 3 in 2008. All but one season was in the American League. Cla "Who stole my Y?" Meredith gave up 6 in each of the last two seasons pitching in an extreme pitcher's park in San Diego against inferior National League hitters. (To be fair he has only given up one homer this season...)

Now the disturbing splits:

                  W    L    ERA    K    BB    HR   OPS
Cla - Home 2009    2    1    2.89  12     4     1  .707
Cla - Away 2009    2    1    5.50   8    10     0  .790

Meredith takes full advantage of his home park. Is OPACY a hitter's park or a pitcher's park? How does this one look to play out?

More:

                         W   L   ERA   K   BB   HR   OPS
Cla - Interleague 2009    0   1  5.68   1    2    0  .613
Cla - Interlegue Career   0   4  5.25  14    7    3  .845

Great. AL batters hammer him too.

So he's best when he's facing NL hitters at his home park which just happens to be an extreme pitcher's park.

Maybe Rick Kranitz sees something is Meredith's delivery he thinks he can work with. Maybe MacPhail thinks that AL batters haven't seen much of Meredith so he can have some success his first time through the league and the O's can flip him in the offseason.

But I don't think so. I think the O's made a move out of desperation and don't have to guts to release the shell of Melvin Mora that is our current third baseman. This trade is as epic a fail as you can make when you trade away a bench player.

Base Hits: 7/8/2009

This story was somewhat troubling to me. Pie and Salazar, two guys I have championed, are drawing interest from other teams in terms of trades.

Obviously, the merits of trading either of them would depend on who they got in return. If the O's got less back for Pie, I would be OK with that. The starting outfield positions are set and the Orioles have internal options for 4th outfielders in the organization (Lou Montanez, Joey Gathright, even Jeff Fiorentino). Better to get something for Pie than lose him on waivers. Salazar is another matter. I think he's already a better option at third than Melvin Mora (a player who will not be back next year) and I don't know why you would move a guy who provides some depth at the corner infield positions when that need will be glaring in 2010. Salazar provides a good bat and flexibility as he can play the corner outfield spots, third and first.

Hopefully, Salazar sticks here. If someone has to go, Pie makes the most sense.

Of course, someday we may be looking back at this and wondering why we were in such a rush to bring back Cesar Izturis in the first place. Robert Andino has displayed much better range in the field and is cheaper to boot. The only reason Izturis is starting at short for this team is the roughly $7.5 million he is owed for the rest of his contract.

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B.J. Ryan was released by the Blue Jays today. The Jays are not released from their financial obligation however and will have to pay Ryan about $15 million to finish out his contract. That's $47 million for 75 saves.

The Orioles were criticized as being cheap when they let him go to Toronto but sometimes it's just a smart move not to pay the big money.

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Replays? We don't need no stinking replays?

Dave Trembley on the edge of madness after last night's ejection.

Evidence that Dave Trembley is a cyborg:

1) He hasn't slept in a week.
2) He can replay all the team's plays in his head.
3) That odd resemblance to T.J. Hooker.
4) The built-in lie detector. Once he determined that Nolan Reimold was telling the truth about being past second base during the errant throw in the first, he really went ballistic.

Classic Trembley quote:

"You laugh, you think I'm funny. You have no idea what I've gone through. No idea. I can't talk for a week now, my hat is a mess."

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Who is Eric Crozier?

Eric Crozier is a former 41st round pick of the Cleveland Indians. He had a cup of coffee with the Blue Jays back in 2004 but he has bounced around the minors since and in 2008 he signed with the independent Atlantic League team, the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs. In the cultural and baseball purgatory that is Waldorf, MD, Crozier posted an .856 OPS hitting .265 with 13 homers. Hardly the stuff of legend.

This year, however, Crozier hit .314 with 8 homers in 50 games for the Blue Crabs and an OBP north of .400. The Orioles came to take a look and about three weeks ago, signed him and put him on the Baysox. In 18 games, Crozier has destroyed Southern League pitching slugging .574 and OPSing .959. Interesting "depth signing" for the Orioles and an interesting player to keep an eye on.

Could The Orioles Switch Leagues? Please?

Isolated in the mountains of north Georgia all weekend, there is little better than coming back to civilization to find a Oriole sweep of the world champion Phillies waiting for me.

You know, I didn't see any of the games but can we get Oscar Salazar some more at bats? Every time he gets a shot to play, he gets a hit. OK, while Aubrey Huff is still here you can't cut into his playing time but Salazar can play third and Melvin Mora's bat stinks.

Mora's OPS by month:

          OPS
April    .940
May      .647
June     .583
 

I'm not a Mora basher but he's 37, he's in decline and the club is not going to exercise his option for 2010. Time to give Salazar some of his at bats (and Ty Wigginton too, since we're discussing it...).

Big weekend for Brian Roberts:

                     AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   RBI
Roberts at Philly   .385  .400  .693 1.092    5
 

Where's those people who want to trade him now? Look at our shortstops. Nice gloves but no offense. It's a real luxury to have a good bat at one of the middle infield positions.

Nolan Reimold: another home run, OPSing 1.016 last week and .973 for the month of June.

Jeremy Guthrie gives up another home run but managed to outduel Cole Hamels on Sunday. That's 17 homers surrendered by Guthrie in 15 games and he is on pace to shatter the Oriole record.

Most home runs surrendered by a Baltimore pitcher in a season:

                 HR   GS
Sidney Ponson    35   32
Scott McGregor   35   33
Robin Roberts    35   35
Scott McGregor   34   34
Mike Cuellar     34   40
Kris Benson      33   30
Bruce Chen       33   32
Ken Dixon        33   33
 
 

I was surprised to see Scott McGregor on this list twice. Not really surprised by anyone else (Cuellar had to make 40 starts to make this list.) If Guthrie stays healthy, he should make 33 starts which puts him on pace for 38 homers surrendered.

(I probably don't plug this enough but I compiled this list using the fantastic BaseballReference.com Play Index. Subscribe or sponsor a page today! I use the site nearly everyday and use the Play Index for blog posts all the time...)

But Peter Angleos should lobby Bud Seling to switch leagues; The Orioles would go to the NL East and the Nats would come AL East. Baltimore would actually contend!

Anyway, more NL East play to come, down to Miami for three against the Marlins and back home this weekend for three with the Nats. Enjoy the wins while they last!

Oscar Salazar Needs a Place to Play

Oscar Salazar is rotting on the bench. I imagine he and Felix Pie are getting to be quite chummy.

Rumors are swirling about trades involving Aubrey Huff and I can't begin to decide if they're true...but they should be. The Orioles have an adequate replacement for Huff sitting on the bench. Sure, he'll soon be 31. He's certainly no prospect. But Salazar is ready to play and can serve as a nice bridge to Brandon Snyder in a year or two.

Aubrey Huff 2009:

       G  AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   2B   HR
Huff  63 .266  .330  .444  .774   14    9
  

These numbers are a far cry from Huff's career 2008 where he OPSed .912 but they are far closer to what kind of player he really is at this point in his career.

Conversely, Salazar in 2008:

              G   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   2B   HR
Salazar '08  34  .284  .372  .506  .879    3    5

 

Salazar in Norfolk this year:

              G   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   2B   HR
Salazar AAA  50  .372  .408  .618 1.027   17   10
 

 

According to MinorLeagueSplits.com his Major League Equivalent (MLE) stats for his 2009 Norfolk stats:

                   G   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   2B   HR
Salazar 2009 MLE  50  .337  .366  .545  .911   15    9
 

These are pretty good indicators that Salazar is ready to take a real shot at holding down a regular position in the majors. He certainly will be able to hold his own and may be able to put up better overall numbers than Huff would anyway.

ZIPS projection for the rest of the season for Salazar:

               AB   AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   2B   HR
Salazar ZIPS  243  .284  .326  .457  .782   15    9
 

Then you can trade Huff away for some useful players who will be around when the rebuilding effort begins to bear fruit.

I keep hearing that the Orioles don't have any candidates to take over at first base if Huff is moved. I respectfully disagree. Not only do they have a replacement, they may have an upgrade.

So I don't know what will happen at the trading deadline with Aubrey Huff but I do know what should.

Base Hits: 1/29/2009

Some transaction news:

SS Brandon Fahey has signed a minor league deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. It's the end of the Fahey era... Fahey seemed like a good guy and a team player but he couldn't hit his way out of a wet paper bag and his glove wasn't nearly as good as advertised. In fact, he was surprisingly bad in the field. Good luck to Toronto as they try to find value in another one of our cast-offs.

Oscar Salazar cleared waivers and was invited to Spring Training. I'm not sure why so man fans thought some other team was going to swoop in and claim a soon-to-be 31 year old career minor leaguer but I think the fact Salazar cleared waivers speaks volumes on his ability.

Non-roster invitees to watch: Jake Arrieta, Brad Hennessey, Chris Tillman, Adam Donachie, Matt Wieters, Blake Davis, Chris Gomes, Donnie Murphy and Brandon Snyder. More on this later...

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Cal Ripken, Jr gives Texas SS cum 3B Michael Young advice about making the switch to the hot corner.

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An article on former Oriole first-rounder Adam Loewen and his quest to switch from pitching to hitting this season. To quote Silky Johnston, "I don't even know you, but I hate you. I hate your guts. I hope all the bad things in life happen to you and only to you. "

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It's been pretty standard to be critical about the Baltimore Orioles' lack of focus on being "fan-friendly" under the Peter Angelos regime and admittedly most of it has been valid. But I can't say enough about the Junior Orioles Dugout program. I have signed my son up for this for the last 4 years and their customer service for this program is top notch. They always have the information available shortly after New Year's Day (if not sooner), the price is reasonable (especially compared to similar programs run by other teams) and my son looks forward to getting his package every year. A very well run program.

Even though fan relations have changed for the better under Andy MacPhail, this is a program that was well-run before he got here.

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Seattle may soon have two former Oriole lefties in their rotation. The Cubs sent recently acquired Garrett Olson and IF Ronny Cedeno to Seattle for RP Aaron Heilman.

Heilman was acquire at the winter meetings in a three team trade that sent J.J. Putz to the Mets. Let's break it down...

Seattle traded RP J.J. Putz, RP Sean Green, IF Luis Valbeuna and OF Jeremy Reed for OF Endy Chavez, IF Mike Carp, OF Franklin Gutierrez, OF Ezequiel Carrera, SP Maikel Cleto, IF Ronny Cedeno and SP Garrett Olson. That trade looks a bit better for the Mariners now.

The Cubs ultimately traded OF Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno for...Aaron Heilman and Class A RP Henry Williamson. Wow. All that for Aaron Heilman? OK....

On another note, the trade is great for Garrett Olson. He'll have a better shot at making the starting rotation and Safeco Field is a pitcher's park. If Olson is ever going to develop into an effective major league starter, there are worse places to pitch than Safeco.

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Koji Uehara is reportedly hard at work developing new pitches, including a changeup. (If you can't read Japanese, click here...) In Japan, Uehara got by mainly with his fastball and fork ball, with the occasional cutter and "shuuto" (whatever that is). He is working on a changeup and has reportedly developed a new "spike-curvey" pitch, a curve that he throws while gripping the ball with his middle finger only. Perhaps he should call it The Bird?

Uehara is working out with Houston infielder Kaz Matusui, trying to adjust to the MLB strike zone, adjusting to the MLB ball and working on his stamina. It doesn't appear that Uehara will fail due to lack of preparation...