5 Keys To The Season Revisited: July

OK, the second half has officially begun. let's see if the O's were able to meet any of their preseason goal, arbitrarily assigned by Yours Truly.

1. The O's lower their ERA by a full run this season.

Team ERA as of today: 4.46. The target: 4.35. Leo Mazzone has done wonders patching together a starting rotation at this point but even some of those smoke and mirrors are wearing off. If not for the enormous bullpen struggles, Baltimore might be exceeding this goal but as it is, they haven't improved enough to contend, even before calculating in the woeful offense.

2. Markakis hits 25.

He's only 23. He's only 23. He's only 23....

I have to keep telling myself that. Nick's having a fine year for a player of his experience but it's easy to get a bit impatient when you see the talent he flashes. He's "only" slugging .435 while I was hoping for something north of .450 and he's only on pace for 16 HR on a team that could sorely use more power. His average, slugging and on-base percentage are all down from last year but I keep telling myself....He's only 23. He's only 23. He's only 23...

3. Increased production from LF

Our leftfielders are OPSing .640, hitting .248 with 2 homeruns. It's worse than last year and I didn't think that was possible.

How bad is it? We would get the same production if we put Jerry Hairston, Jr. out there full time! Or Howie Clark. Or Abraham Nunez.

The CF position is even worse (OPS of .627). Corey Patterson needs to go and since he's already under contract, put Jay Payton in center.

Again, outside of Markakis, the outfield is an offensive black hole.

4. Melvin Mora circa 2004....or at least 2005.

Mora has been better than last year (especially in power production) but well short of his 2005 numbers. In fact, his OPS is almost exactly in the middle of his 2005 and 2006 numbers. These aren't bad numbers but they aren't the numbers we would expect from Mora. At 35, this is probably what we can expect from him for the rest of the contract.

5. Health

We haven't had it. Case closed.

So at this point in the season, none of these goals that the O's could have reasonably hit, have been met.

Sigh.

Can The Bullpen Be Fixed?

O's fans, there's no sense in getting upset when the Baltimore bullpen coughs up a lead this season. The season is lost and it's now open auditions for the bullpen spots. It's time to find out if anybody on this team can stabilize the 'pen in preparation for next year.

Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker are exempt from this conversation. They signed for big money in the offseason and have pitched well. Look for them to share the seventh and eighth innings, trading off as the setup man for the rest of the year. Who else?

Chris Ray

Some rate stats for Ray comparing last year to this year

       FIP    K/9   BB/9   HR/9

2006  4.87    7.4    3.9   1.44

2007  4.14    9.0    3.6   1.19

Ray has blown 4 saves this year this year compared to 5 all of last year but in
most important categories he is actually pitching better than last year. The
problem? A lot of balls are finding holes this year where last year the defense
bailed him out a bit more. I think Ray will have things go more his way in the
second half and he should remain the closer next year.

Danys Baez

He reluctantly signed with the O's to setup for Ray but failed to do so effectively and now the O's may be reluctant to bring him back next year. Most peripheral stats (WHIP, K/9) are consistent with his career numbers but he just gave up way too many homeruns to remain effective. It's hard to say what his role may be until he comes off the DL. He certainly needs to put together a strong second half to have a good shot to make the club next year.

Paul Shuey

Shuey's been a nice story but the results haven't been good in the majors do far. He hasn't struck out that many but he's walked just as many as he's punched out which is not a good combination for a reliever. He's also got a WHIP close to 2.00. He'll get a chance to pitch until Baez gets healthy but I don't think he's much more than a mopup guy anymore.

John Parrish

Parrish was a nice story early in the season and it would probably be a bit unfair to judge him on this season's performance given the workload Sam Perlozzo laid on him. Except for one thing. It's a dirty little secret that Parrish walks batters at vintage Daniel Cabrera type rates. You can get away with that if you go 7 innings on a regular basis, not as a reliever. He has to go.

Kurt Birkins

I really want to like Birkins. His K rates and walk rates in the minors are impressive but he has yet to translate that into major league success. He gives up a lot of hits, even in AAA. He has the talent to pitch around those hits in Norfolk but he sure doesn't have the talent to pitch around them in Baltimore. Maybe he will be useful one day but I don't see it anytime soon.

Rob Bell

The journeyman, mostly in the minors, has been a strikeout ace in the minors but, like Birkins, hasn't translated it into big league success...until now. The O's are the first team to give Bell a significant look out of the bullpen and the 2.89 ERA is misleading (he has only 6 K's and 7 BB in his six games this season) and he may not get a chance to sort himself out in Baltimore but he's an intriguing possibility for long relief.

Cory Doyne

I like relievers who were closers in the minors, even if they never end up closing for the big club and Doyne has already saved 26 at midseason (setting a new record for the Tides franchise) and is posting a K/BB ratio of over 3 to 1. I like his chances to break with the club out of Spring Training next year and maybe even begin playing a pivotal role in the bullpen starting in August.

Jim Hoey

Hoey dominated the Eastern League, saving 14 games, appearing in 20 and posting a 0.00 ERA! His ERA in Norfolk has been 1.65 up to this point but he is striking out batters at an even higher rate and the International League is only batting .151 against him. It's just a matter of time before his talent begins to translate against big league hitters. The 24 year old is dominant and should be in the O's pen next year.

Brian Burres

I like Burres but I think his future is in the pen, not in the rotation. Assuming he's not forced into the rotation again, he'll be the primary long man next year.

Predicted O's bullpen for 2008:

Chris Ray - Closer

Chad Bradford - Setup

Jamie Walker - Setup

Brian Burres - Long Relief

Jim Hoey - Relief

Cory Doyne - Relief

That could be a dominant 'pen.

Back In Town...

OK, no more travel for the foreseeable future. In the last 5 weeks I've been in 15 states! Anyway, on to the O's...

So on Monday, I was at a Durham Bulls game (in Durham...against the Toledo Mudhens...how cool was that?) when I noticed that there was a guy playing for the Bulls named Chris Richard. Hmmm...checking my program I found that it was indeed that Chris Richard, the one who played for the O's in 2001 and hit 15 homers. (Wow, we could use some of that production now...) We traded Mike Timlin to St. Louis for him and then traded him to the Rockies a couple of years later for "Stumblin' " Jack Cust. Timlin's still pitching effectively for the Red Sox, Cust is now getting a second chance with the A's and Richard has been battling injuries and playing in Oklahoma City and Indianapolis the last two years trying to get back to the majors. That night, Richard went 3-3 with a double and and 2 RBI batting cleanup for Durham and won that night's game MVP. Just one of the many reasons I love minor league baseball; you never know who you're going to get to see on a given night...

Who are the two best offense players for the O's? Brian Roberts is clearly the best but I wonder how many of you would pick Kevin Millar as number two? I will and he clearly is. He's OPSing .828 and despite having to split time with the struggling Jay Gibbons for most of the first two months, he's having a really nice year. Under Perlozzo, Millar produced but was banished to the 7 hole. (only when Sam got desperate in his last days did Kevin get as high as 5th in the batting order.) Dave Trembley has moved him up in the order and has been playing him more regularly to good results. This past week, Millar was hitting in the 3 or 4 slot exclusively. Yeah, it'd be nice to have a 30+ HR guy in one of those slots but part of being a good manager is knowing what you have and what you don't and maximizing the potential of your lineup. Here's to hoping Millar can continue to produce until some of these more heralded Baltimore bats wake up...

The O's have parted ways with Scott Williamson, presumably to give some of their young arms a look out of the 'pen. Williamson did a decent job this year when healthy and that was the real issue in letting him go. Good luck to Scott Williamson, I've always been a fan. I was working on a post about the bullpen and how the rest of the season will be open tryouts for next year and the O's have shown that that's the way they feel too. I'm all for giving the kids a shot, we have a lot of good young relievers in a farm system that seems bereft of anything else...

Congratulations to Brian Roberts for making the All-Star team. Outside of Roberts, the only O you could make an argument for was Jeremy Guthrie but there are too many AL starters having big years to get in the door for him. The irony here (on many levels) is that Roberts shouldn't even be here and we have Peter Angelos to thank. Here's how the other players the O's would've received for Roberts are doing so far:

Marcus Giles: .251, 4 HR, 7 SB, .668 OPS

Adam LaRoche: .235, 11 HR, 48 RBI, .741 OPS

Honestly, I would've made that trade before the start of this season. For once, Angelos made the right call...

Don't look now but the O's are 5-4 in their last nine games. Not earth-shattering but a marked improvement over the late-Perlozzo era. After tonight's game with Chicago, here are the upcoming series for July: at Texas, White Sox at home, at Seattle, at Oakland, Tampa Bay at home and Yankees at home. Outside of Oakland, there's not a team on the schedule that is not beatable. The schedule is setting up very favorably for Dave Trembley's job prospects...

Welcome to the majors Garrett Olson. We fans are happy to see you up, we need all the help we can get...

As I said last week, Daniel Cabrera needs to stay with Baltimore, even if this is the best he'll ever be but I still think he's just having a bit of an off year. All his peripheral numbers are in line or better than his career numbers except two: His homeruns allowed and his strikeout rate. He is giving up homers at a rate nearly twice what would be normal for him and is posting a strikeout rate that will be his lowest since 2004 (6.8/9 IP). His walks per 9 is at it's lowest rate of his career and he leads the team in innings pitched. I know it can be frustrating to watch him as a fan but I think any team could use a guy who can pitch 200 innings and be occasionally brilliant. That's enough reason to keep him. And I may be crazy but I just think he's a bit off this year and will be better next year. (I know, I know...)

Improved version of Visual UDC by MagnaView - in September 2007

At the UDC Seminar in June 2007, MagnaView, a Dutch company, announced that a special UDC-version of their solution for visual browsing of UDC would be released on 1st July. MagnaView has decided to postpone this release until 1st September 2007 to further improve this version.

Erik Jan van der Linden's presentation "Visual Universal Decimal Classification?" and a summary of his talk can be

Improved version of Visual UDC by MagnaView - in September 2007

At the UDC Seminar in June 2007, MagnaView, a Dutch company, announced that a special UDC-version of their solution for visual browsing of UDC would be released on 1st July. MagnaView has decided to postpone this release until 1st September 2007 to further improve this version.

Erik Jan van der Linden's presentation "Visual Universal Decimal Classification?" and a summary of his talk can be

Presentations from the UDC Seminar now available on the UDCC web

Presentations and paper abstracts - from the UDC Seminar that took place on 4-5 June 2007 at the UDC Headquarters in The Hague are now linked and available for download from the Seminar's Programme.

Presentations from the UDC Seminar now available on the UDCC web

Presentations and paper abstracts - from the UDC Seminar that took place on 4-5 June 2007 at the UDC Headquarters in The Hague are now linked and available for download from the Seminar's Programme.