With Brian Roberts in Limbo, A Way to Cushion the Blow

With Brian Roberts in and out of the lineup this spring, you can't help but be concerned for the offensive prospects of the Orioles this season. There are plenty of mistakes to be made when considering who to bat leadoff should Roberts not be available for the regular season.

Unfortunately, many managers overvalue speed and base running ability when choosing a leadoff hitter. They seem to forget that none of that means much unless the leadoff man.

Can you imagine the team batting Cesar Izturis in the leadoff spot for a significant portion of the season and how damaging that would be to the offense? Before you start to think that batting Izturis leadoff is so ridiculous that no manager would do it, consider this breakdown of Izzy's career and where he and his career .296 OBP have hit in the lineup:

He has hit leadoff more than he has hit 9th or 8th individually. And he's batted 2nd quite a lot too. There are enough managers out there with big league jobs who looked at Izzy and said, "That's a guy I need at the top of my lineup." It has happened and can happen. When you lose a player who embodies the classic leadoff hitter like Roberts, there is an enormous opportunity to do something stupid.

And it can lead to disaster. To demonstrate, using the Lineup Analysis tool at Baseball Musings, I created a probable and pretty traditional lineup with Brian Roberts at the top of the order.

That lineup will score you 5.127 runs per game or 830 runs over the course of the season.

Now, place Cesar Izturis in the leadoff spot and you get 4.877 runs per game or 790 runs per season. In 2010, that difference would have been enough to drop your offense from second in the American League to sixth.

Here's a quick list of the internal "traditional" options and what happens when each of them bats leadoff:

R/G   Total Runs
Izturis   4.88      790
Andino    4.90      795
Hardy     4.92      797
Harris    4.95      801

(In the Hardy leadoff scenario, Izturis is also batting 9th...)

However, leave Izturis in the lineup (he is the most likely to play second base if Roberts can't, at least to start the season) but try a different configuration.

I have recently become more strident in my assertion that Nick Markakis has the skills to be a prototypical leadoff hitter. Let's give him a shot here. And instead of a guy in the 2 hole who "is a good bunter" or "can move the runner along", let's put a decent hitter there. A guy like Luke Scott who can get on base at a fair rate and actually drive in the leadoff man.

That lineup will get you 805 runs for the season. Even choosing the worst possible offensive option at second base, with Markakis and Scott at the top of the lineup, it beats every other option available.

The loss if Roberts will still hurt but it can be mitigated if you assess the skills of the players in your lineup correctly and construct your lineup accordingly...it doesn't have to be a disaster. Now we'll see if Buck can navigate his way through the pitfalls.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Nick Markakis

In what has become tradition, the Nick Markakis' hit chart from the 2010 season. The light blue dots are singles, next shade darker are doubles, etc. (image courtesy of katron.org): 

It's always a thing of beauty. He hits to all fields and still hits with a bit of power.

I have given up on waiting for Markakis to blossom into a star but he's still a very good hitter. And although he's never developed the power I had hoped, he still strokes a ton of doubles:

Rk           Player  2B   Age
1     Matt Holliday 217 26-30
2     Robinson Cano 206 23-27
3     Nick Markakis 206 22-26
4    Miguel Cabrera 203 23-27
5     Albert Pujols 199 26-30
 

And while I don't think the extra protection in the lineup will help him that much, there is one thing it is likely to do...keep him in the #2 spot in the order. For his career:

          Split   G  GS   PA  BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
    Batting 2nd 186 184  846  94 122 .324 .400 .530 .930
    Batting 3rd 445 443 1966 199 289 .286 .360 .444 .804

It probably doesn't mean much. But I've watched Nick hit 2nd and also further down in the order. He seems more patient and willing to wait for his pitch or take the walk. When he bats lower, he seems to press a bit to try to drive in runs. Some guys alter their philosophy a bit based on where they hit in the order and I think Nick's one of those guys. If things turn out the way the should, Markakis may hit second for most of the season, a spot in the order that complements his strengths as a hitter. And maybe, just maybe, that's the thing that will help him take a step forward in his career.

Or this may all be wishful thinking.

I still can't believe that Markakis is an .800 OPS level hitter. I think (or hope) he will OPS closer to .850 than .800 this season.

Three Things I Learned from the Bill James Handbook

If you haven't caught on yet, I got the 2011 Edition of the Bill James Handbook this week. Here's some nuggets from 2010 I've uncovered.

1. Nick Markakis Has a Very Specific Set of Skills

While I have given up on Markakis becoming a star player, he does still do many good things at the plate. Persusing the AL leader boards, Markakis is in the top ten in hits (5th with 187), doubles (tied for 4th with 45) and singles (tied for 9th with 127).

He also hit .338 with runners in scoring position (7th in the AL). Oddly enough, he was 2nd in batting average against left handed pitching (.361), 4th in OBP against lefties (.415) and, not surprisingly, had the 2nd highest OPS for a lefty versus lefty pitching (.906). That is really not typical for Markakis who usually makes his hay against RHP, as you would expect.

He was also 5th in the AL in pitches seen and 10th in lowest first swing percentage.

He may not be a star but he's still a pretty good hitter.

2. Getting On Base Against Jeremy Guthrie is Really Hard

Batters only got on base at a .298 clip against Jeremy Guthrie in 2010. That was 10th best in the AL and puts him in a top ten that includes David Price, Justin Verlander and Dallas Braden. This prompted me to see who was the best at preventing runners from getting on base over the past four seasons:

              Opponent OBP
R. Halladay       .289
C. Lee            .294
C. Sabathia       .297
J. Weaver         .301
F. Hernandez      .304
J. Beckett        .306
S. Baker          .308
J. Verlander      .308
J. Guthrie        .310
J. Shields        .310

That's pretty good company. And it probably explains a lot about how Guthrie is able to outperform his peripherals every year.

3. The Orioles' Two Best Fielders Probably Aren't Who You Think They Are

In terms of Runs Saved, the best showing from a regular fielder was...Felix Pie. This is not a surprise to some but the "Felix Pie looks lost in left field" reputation has been tough for him to shake. But Pie was credited with 6 Runs Saved, good for 5th among all left fielders in baseball, in only 70 games. Double that for 140 games and the 12 Runs Saved would put him right behind the likes of Brett Gardner (13) and Carl Crawford (14). He's one of he best fielding outfielders in baseball. It's time to retire the notion that he's not.

The best fielder in terms of John Dewans' +/- system was...Brad Bergesen. Brad scored +6 on that system among all pitchers and on the list of 3-year leaders, Bergesen scores +13, just two points behind the leader, Jake Westbrook...and Brad only played a year and a half of those three years. 

Bergesen needs to do all the little things to succeed in the majors and when it comes to fielding his position, he certainly does.

Preseason Predictions Revisited

As the season heads into its final week, it seemed like a good time to revisit my preseason predictions. As it turns out, they were fairly optimistic so they were also largely wrong. Here we go.

* Garrett Atkins won't be a regular with this team by June 15th. Somebody has to come to their senses. Nice clutch hitting in Tampa but that can't last.

Done and done. He was released before the end of June.

* Nick Markakis...breakout! Enos Slaughter for the new millennium. I recycling this from last season.

Yeah. Maybe someday but I'm done expecting anything more than average production from Nick at this point. Wrong.

* Brian Matusz....breakout! Don't be surprised if Matusz is having Tim Lincecum-type success (without the gawdy strikeout totals...but damn good ones) by the second half of the season.

Second half stats from Matusz and Lincecum over their first full season:

K/9    BB/9    K/BB   WHIP   HR   ERA
Matusz         7.0     3.2    2.19   1.30    8  4.27
Lincecum       8.6     4.0    2.15   1.30    5  3.38

Matusz has certainly improved as the season has gone along but not quite to the level I had expected. Close though. The walks are down, the strikeouts are up. Things are moving in the right direction.

* Matt Wieters...breakout! I'm going with the Keith Law prediction of "well over .300 with 20-25 homers" for his sophomore season.

Really wrong on this one. Wieters has actually taken a step back. Not a good sign.

* Adam Jones....no breakout! It would be hard to call this a breakout since he was pretty good last year but I expect that this is the year Jones starts to show people that Adrian Gonzalez is not necessary because the Orioles already have a bat as good in centerfield. Look for an average around .300 with something approaching 25 homers.

Not exactly. If you take away his hideous April, he looks like a guy who can hit at those levels. But he has basically held steady on his production from last year. Wrong.

* 80 wins. That's my guess. And with a little luck...you never know.

You wonder what would have happened if Buck Showalter was managing back in April. But the Orioles were lucky to avoid 100 losses. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

* Ben McDonald becomes a surprise hit on MASN.

He's been fine but no better than Brady Anderson.

* Kevin Millwood 2010 = Rick Sutcliffe 1992

It started out that way but certainly didn't end up there. Sutcliffe finished 1992 with 3.1 WAR for the Orioles. Millwood has 0.9 WAR. Millwood almost met the minimal expectations: league average pitching and eating innings. He pitched 180+ innings, which was good, but a 5.29 ERA is only good for an ERA+ of 80, which is not so good. Wrong.

* Felix Pie forces something this summer...a trade, a position change....something.

Pie has kind of made himself the forerunner for the LF job in 2011 since his return from injury earlier in the season. But a batting line of .274/.304/.401 isn't going to lock it down for him. Thus, I doubt the team makes any moves assuming that Pie will be the man. Not so much on this one.

That was kind of depressing. Anyone ready for 2011?

Nick Markakis and Arbitrary Standards

I'm not above beating a dead horse. This blurb from Phil Rogers column in the Baltimore Sun just got to me...

The Orioles' Nick Markakis remains one of the best hitters no one notices. He entered the weekend with 43 doubles, making him only the third player in history to have four consecutive seasons of at least 43 doubles. The other two were Joe Medwick and Tris Speaker.


OK. On the surface that seems kind of impressive, accomplishing something that only two other players have done in the entire history of baseball and keeping some company with Hall of Famers while you're at it.


But a closer look shows otherwise. A cumulative comparison of the four consecutive seasons of 43 doubles or more for each player:

                    AVG    OBP   SLG   OPS+   2B   HR
Markakis '07-'10   .297   .370  .462   120   180   71
Speaker  '20-'23   .377   .467  .578   169   209   39 
Medwick  '35-'38   .351   .390  .583   158   213   93

And their numbers through the end of their age 26 season:

             AVG    OBP   SLG   OPS+   2B   HR
Markakis    .296   .367  .460   118   205   87
Speaker     .340   .413  .494   168   216   39 
Medwick     .338   .373  .560   147   305  131

You can make the case that Markakis is an underrated hitter but not because he hit a bunch of doubles. Speaker and Medwick were on another level when it came to hitting. Markakis brings one aspect of their game but is not the superior hitter that these guys were. Comparing Nick to those guys because of some arbitrary numbers is misguided and an incomplete assessment of his abilities.

I think there is an "Emperor's New Clothes" syndrome when it comes to local writers and fans assessing Nick's true worth. He certainly was one of the more underrated hitters in the game but coming off what is arguably his weakest offensive season, he has become overrated instead. Decent hitter. Not a great one.

What the Hell is Wrong with Nick Markakis?

One thing has been lost in all this winning of late is the fact that, very quietly, Nick Markakis is having a pretty poor year.

Since his age 24 season, here's some of his rate stats:

              AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   ISO   BABIP
2008         .306  .406  .491  .897  .185   .350
2009         .293  .347  .453  .801  .160   .317
2010         .289  .367  .423  .790  .134   .325

As many of you know, after that 2008 season, I was predicting big things for Nick. Here was a guy who nearly OPSed .900 at the age of 24 and was heading into his mid and late 20's, what are typically considered a player's peak season. But he has regressed. A lot.

The power numbers are the most striking. I was never a guy who thought Markakis would be a guy who would hit 30 homers a season but I did expect 20-25 with a bunch of doubles. With the crazy onbase skills, that was a guy who could have been a borderline star level rightfielder.

Instead, he is OPSing .790 and even in this season with reduced offensive levels, is a mediocrity at the plate among baseball's rightfielders.I never thought I'd see the day when Nick would be posting a sub-.800 OPS for a season but he's well on his way. On top of that, he has been below average in the field the last two season when examined with various metrics. What the hell happened?

The walk rate is still in the double digits so that's fine. But he has lost points on his batting average and taken a plummet with his power. His BABIP is at career norms so he is not unlucky.

But the big drop is his power. While he's hit a few more groundballs than normal this year, his HR/F% stands at 5.3%, down from 8.0% in 2009 and down from double digits during his first three seasons. With fewer homers, his ISO is down for three straight years, as well as his slugging.

Nick's power is gone, folks. I'm not sure why but he's now clearly a punch-and-judy type with some gap power. He's not a bad player but he's certainly not great one.

How Nick Got Caught Looking

In this past Saturday's game, Nick Markakis struck out looking against Cliff Lee. That was the fourth straight time that he had struck out looking.

It is not surprising that Nick has never struck out looking four times in a row before. He possesses one of the best eyes in baseball. It's shocking that is ever happened at all.

So how did this rare event come to be? Was Nick justified in ripping the ump the night he was tossed from the game? With PitchFx, we can find out.

Starting with his first at bat against C.J. Wilson on Friday night:

Wilson struck out Markakis with a two-seam fastball but all three strikes he got on Nick were good pitches, away, but in the strikezone.

At bat #2:

This time, Wilson went in, out, in, out and then in the zone away to get the called strike three. Good pitching from Wilson as he changed locations and froze Nick with another two-seam fast ball low and away in the zone.

At bat #3:

This was the at bat where Nick got thrown out. But Markakis has a great argument here as none of the pitches were in the zone. Pitch number three was borderline but all are clearly outside the zone. Nick was right, this should have been a walk.

The next day, his first at bat against Cliff Lee:

Hmmmm...a little payback for going after the umpire the night before? Lee was surgical with his strikes but the second pitch and the the final pitch were off the plate. Nick probably had to bite his tongue hard after this at bat.

Don't expect to see this phenomenon again anytime soon. Nick was a victim of good pitching for two of these K's but also the victim of some really bad calls on the other two. Again, if you were watching the Orioles over the weekend, you saw a rare sight.

Nolan Reimold To The Rescue?

From the Oriole Insider blog on BaltimoreSun.com:

Triple-A Norfolk outfielder Nolan Reimold went 4-for-5 with a double, homer, two RBIs and a stolen base against Louisville last night. In seven August games with the Tides, Reimold is batting .400 with two homers, seven RBIs, three walks and two steals. Overall, he’s batting .238 with 10 homers, 32 RBIs and six stolen bases in 73 games.

It’s obviously been a long and trying year for Reimold, who was supposed to be the everyday left fielder in Baltimore. Instead, he hit .205 in 29 games and has been in the minor leagues since May 12. Orioles president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said there has been some discussions about promoting Reimold, but nothing is imminent at this point.

I don't believe that Reimold was healthy to start this season and that certainly didn't help things. The silver lining to his struggles and subsequent demotion? Reimold could compete for the first base job in 2011.

Reimold has played 38 of his 73 games in Norfolk at first base. And his hot August is no fluke. Even though he only posted a .235/.361/.382 line in July his BABIP was only .238 when his line drive percentage supports a BABIP in the .290's. In other words, Reimold was unlucky in July and has been hitting the ball a lot better since the beginning of July. (He has also walked 21 times since July 1st against just 16 strikeouts.)

Reimold should get a September callup but with Felix Pie, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis in the outfield, there is no room for Reimold in the outfield. A 1B/DH split with Luke Scott makes some sense and adds a decent right handed power bat the the Orioles lineup needs.

Random Thoughts About the Week...

Rick Dempsey to be Interviewed for Oriole Manager

This is kind of sad to me. Andy MacPhail does not take Rick seriously for this position. And arguably, he shouldn't. Dempsey hasn't managed in years. But he wants it so bad, he'll put up with this indignity and try to convince the Oriole brass otherwise.

Brad Bergesen and Koji Uehara To Return, Garrett Atkins Likely Roster Casualty

The fragile Uehara is coming back...but for how long is uncertain. He's pretty good when he's on the mound and he will help the bullpen but obviously we can't count on him being healthy.

Bergey...I don't know. I just wish they'd leave him in one spot and let him work things out in Baltimore.

Years ago, Henry Rollins put forth an idea for a performance art piece called "Edie Brickell Still Lives" where he would sit in a chair on a stage covered with cinder blocks, nails and razor wire, a PA announcer would say "Edie Brickell still lives!" at which point, Rollins would hurl himself onto the stage, beating his body against all the bricks and nails and razors until he collapsed into a bloody, sweaty heap on the stage. Then the PA announcer would shout, "But she still lives!", which would cause Rollins to pick himself up off the stage and do it all over again.

Call this piece "Garret Atkins Retains a Roster Spot" and I could do it myself.

Nick Markakis Meets With Peter Angelos

I think Nick has finally figured that he is chained to this team for another 4 and a half years...he'd better do something!

I love that Nick seems to be taking a more active leadership role on the team, even if it is motivated by self-interest. It's clear that he expected better this season and can't bear the thought of the Orioles flailing about for the next fours seasons until he becomes a free agent.

Matt Wieters Bunt!

Juan Samuel does NOT want to stay with the organization. Period.

According to Fangraphs.com, that botched bunt cost the Orioles .114 of WPA...more than any non-run scoring play the Marlins managed. Juan Samuel may as well have been playing for the other team.

Matt Angle is an On Base Machine

All Matt Angle does is get on base and steal second....THAT"S ALL HE DOES!!!

I didn't include Angle in my high-minors review earlier this week but he deserves a mention. The Orioles haven't done him any favors. After playing last season at high-A Frederick, he started the season on the DL, got a total of 14 games in Bowie and was then rushed up to Norfolk due to organizational need.

Angle has held his own, relatively speaking. He's only hitting .264/.338/.282 in Norfolk...but forget the OPS. You heard me, forget the OPS.

Angle does not hit for power and he may never do so...but his career OBP in the minors is .386, his career walk rate is 12.2% and he has stolen 124 bases at an 80.5% clip. There is room for a guy like that as a leadoff hitter in the majors.

As we have seen, having guys with lousy on base skills can sap a struggling offense. A guy like Angle should be seen as a real prospect if he can improve on his numbers in Norfolk. Don't let the fact that he was thrown into the deep end of the pool fool you.

Markakis To Team: Let's Get a Clue

Nick Markakis has had it with the Oriole offense. And for a change, he says so to The Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zreibec:

"We still have a lot of holes, and, unfortunately, we have had a lot of injuries. But one guy, one big bat, is not going to make that much of a difference. You can stick a guy hitting 50 homers in this lineup right now, and he really is not going to do anything until we all get on the same page. We all need to have better approaches at the plate....

...from top to bottom, you need guys getting on base. You need guys in there who have a plan, who have a clue and who know how to execute that plan and get on base. We don't need every guy in this lineup trying to hit home runs. We're paid to get on base and figure out how to score and drive in runs."

Earl Weaver would've kissed this guy on the mouth.

In the 14 team AL, the Orioles are 13th in on base percentage, 13th in slugging and 13th in OPS. What was to be a relative strength of this team has become its biggest disappointment.

It's nice to see Nick say something publicly...but I wonder how much difference it will make. He also states that none of this is Terry Crowley's fault...but if a lack of a clear approach at the plate isn't the responsibility of the hitting coach, whose is it?

Around the Oriole Blog-O-Sphere: Trembley Watch Edition

Dave McNeill of Weaver's Tantrum ponders what's to be done with Oriole CF Adam Jones. And he does it while pinch-hitting for Rob Neyer. Way to go, Dave!

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Daniel Moroz takes a detailed look at Nick Markakis' lack of power this season and comes to a some interesting conclusions.

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Chris Stoner of Baltimore Sports and Life thinks something good happened while the Orioles were losing the series to the Indians this past weekend but it didn't happen in Baltimore.

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The Baltimore Chop thinks Rick Dempsey's wardrobe is uglier than the Orioles' record this season and offers some pointers. It comes from a place of love.

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Some good pics of the Matt Wieters' Q&A at the ESPN Zone from The Oriole Post. Special lenses were needed to cut down on the nimbus that shines from Wieters head.

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Eutaw Street Hooligans go full Ernie on us and discuss the things that make them happy and sad about the Orioles' season thus far.

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Baltimore Sports Report's Zach Wilt drops some sobering news (at least to me)...this is as good as Nick Markakis will ever be.

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Down on the farm, Crawdaddy takes a closer look at the Frederick Keys and, specifically, LJ Hoes.

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Two things form Roar from 34...Matt takes a look at the career of former Oriole pitcher Mark Brown and also finds the one stat the Orioles' lead the league in.

Around the Oriole Blog-O-Sphere: Acceptance Edition

Roar from 34 looks at the ultimate good news/bad news situation. The Orioles pitching staff has been racking up quality starts. But they haven't been winning any of them.

Camden Crazies delves deep into the question..."Where the hell if the offense?"

Camden Depot has a quick graph showing Nick Markakis' walk rate and how it has diminished over the past week or so. Indeed, Nick has no walks and 9 strikeouts over the past 9 games, something he'll need to turn around if he is to have lasting success this season. I would imagine this is a sign that he is pressing a bit, feeling the need to swing the bat more with the offense in a funk. But for now, it's working.

Baltimore Sports Report breaks down the upcoming series in Boston.

It could always be worse. At least the Orioles are not the 1899 Cleveland Spiders.

Chris Stoner at Baltimore Sports and Life looks ahead to what he hopes to see from the rest of the Oriole season. It certainly better than focusing on the present.

Over at Camden Chat, sandalfan believes that the Oriole's woes are best explained by one phenomenon...bad luck.

Patrick Smith imagines Andy MacPhail having a sit-down with Dave Trembley. This is a week old but unfortunately, still very relevant.

Not really the Blog-O-Sphere but Shorebirds announcer Bret Lasky has an interview with former Oriole and current Delmarva coach Mike Devereaux. I know Bret did an interview with Matt Hobgood...looking forward to hearing that.

Trembley Explodes! Too Little, Too Late?

Orioles manager Dave Trembley reportedly gave the team a piece of his mind yesterday. According to Jeff Zrebiec of The Baltimore Sun:

If you had April 21 in the "When will Dave Trembley blow his stack" pool, collect your prize. The Orioles manager had a brief, but apparently noisy, team meeting tonight to get after his players for both their effort and execution in recent days. Trembley said it wasn't one play or sequence that set him off, but rather a collection of them. I'd say Julio Lugo's hustle down the first base line and the Orioles' getting leadoff doubles in two innings last night and not budging the runners were at the top of the list.

Does this seem a bit disingenuous and forced to anyone else? I mean, if you were the manager and you were really bothered by the team not hitting the runners over or, especially, by Lugo's lack of hustle and the team was in the middle of a 2-14 streak, wouldn't you kind of blow your stack right then and there? Why would you get everyone together the day after to express your displeasure? Is this a last ditch effort by Trembley to show that he can be a tough guy when he needs to be?

Well, he's not that guy. It may serve him well in most instances but not in this one.

Meanwhile, some of the players are defending Trembley. Says Nick Markakis:

"I don't think you can blame Trembley," Markakis said. "We're the ones out there pitching and hitting. I think he's done a good job overall. There's only so much a manager can do. The rest of it is up to the players. If you're going to point fingers, you can put it on my shoulders. I'm not swinging the bat the way I'd like to.

Markakis is hardly to guy to be pointing fingers at. He's been hitting .324 and slugging .459 over the last 9 games...if only everyone was hitting so poorly.

Looking for The Clutch

What have to Orioles been missing this year? Sure, the offense but what do you hear most often?

"The big hit"

"Situational hitting"

"Hitting with runners in scoring position"

"Runners left on base"

"Coming through in the clutch"

These are the things that are missing if you ask your average Oriole fan.

I believe in clutch hitting. How can I not? It happens everyday. But it is rarely predictive or repeatable.

So how do we measure it? Most times it is measured with batting average with runners in scoring position (BARISP) but that is a pretty volatile stat to use for individual players (and whole teams for that matter).

There are a number of other stats which show how a batter "moves the needle" for his team in a positive or negative direction. Most of you probably know about WPA (or WPA/LI)which I have highlighted with the WPA Graphs I borrow from FanGraphs.com but there are more. Sticking with FanGraphs, there is also RE24 and Clutch. (For explanations of the above terms, click the links for the FanGraphs definitions...they explain it much better than I can.)

So for reference, here are the WPA/LI Oriole Leaders for the last 3 years.

Orioles' WPA/LI Last Three Seasons

             WPA/LI    Year
A. Huff        2.990     2008
N. Markakis    2.939     2008
B. Roberts     1.867     2008
L. Scott       1.493     2009
N. Markakis    1.359     2007
B. Roberts     1.147     2007
B. Roberts     1.057     2009

And the RE24...

Orioles' RE24 Last Three Seasons

            RE24      Year
A. Huff        36.449    2008
N. Markakis    35.097    2008
B. Roberts     23.184    2008
L. Scott       18.031    2009
N. Markakis    17.748    2007
B. Roberts     17.664    2009
B. Roberts     17.217    2007

And the Clutch numbers which are interesting because they compare the high leverage performance of a player to their baseline performance:


Orioles' Clutch Numbers Last Three Seasons

                 Clutch      Year
Brian Roberts      1.2       2009
Adam Jones         0.91      2009
Nick Markakis      0.78      2007
Corey Patterson    0.58      2007
Melvin Mora        0.56      2008
Ramon Hernandez    0.49      2008
Brian Roberts      0.4       2007
Brian Roberts      0.34      2008
Adam Jones         0.3       2008

OK, who walked around in 2007 saying, "Man, that Corey Patterson is so clutch!"?

And before this season, Adam Jones had been pretty clutch.

But I think we can see the name that shows up on all these lists the most...Brian Roberts. You can't overestimate how integral Roberts has been to the Oriole offense over the past three years. Only Nick Markakis is even close in terms of contributing to Oriole wins. Roberts moves the needle in the Orioles' favor far more than any other batter on the roster.

Now, most of the team is slumping and you have to think they will turn it around eventually. But this offense may not start clicking until Roberts returns. And that's weeks away.

"Welcome to Birdland South!"

As I handed the elderly usher my ticket to last Saturday's Oriole spring training game against the Red Sox, he exclaimed, "Welcome to Birdland South!".

And he was right. The place was overrun with Red Sox fans, they played "Thank God I'm a Country Boy" during the 7th inning stretch and the O's lost in heartbreaking fashion. I felt just like Birdland to me.

All kidding aside, I knew this game would be a madhouse. I just bought a bleacher ticket and figured I would focus more on the ballpark experience more so than the game itself.

The game was sold out with record attendance of 8,088. Even the bleacher seats were packed. And early on, it looked like the orange and black would outnumber the red jerseys. It was not to be. By gametime, the stadium looked more Port Charlotte than Sarasota. Oh well.

With the bleachers packed, it looked like my best bet was to stand along the rightfield wall and that did turn out to be the way to go. At Ed Smith Stadium, the clubhouse is located past the rightfield fence so all the players have to walk by the rightfield wall and the stands on the first base side to get to the dugout which gives you some good photo and autograph opportunities.

There is an intimacy at a spring training game that you don't get elsewhere. When a fan asked Jeremy Guthrie how it went for him today, he told him. When Luke Scott was heckled repeatedly by an obnoxious Red Sox fan, he gave it back to him a little drawing appreciative laghter from the crowd. And lots of guys cam over to give people autographs and to chat.

MASN was set up nearby and the players giving interviews got walked right through the fans on their way to talk to Amber Theoharis. Miguel Tejada drew the biggest reaction and high-fived with the fans on his way to and back from his interview. Tejada also hung around the field for quite some time and signed autographs for everybody which was surprising to me given his veteran status and his overall reputation.

All in all, a relaxed atmosphere even with the irritation of the home field being overtaken by The Nation. I can't tell you all that much about the actual game. I had lousy seats and the PA system is barely intelligible away from the grandstand area making the game nearly impossible to follow. But I met some nice Marylanders, some nice locals too, saw Nick Markakis hit a solo shot to right and Miguel Abreu go 2-3 with a stolen base and some fine defense at second. All in all, a good day at the park.

By the 9th inning, I had maneuvered my way back out to the grandstand, staked out some standing room and then snagged a seat in the upper reserve section on the visitor's side. That was just in time to see David Hernandez give up a ninth inning go-ahead homer to a AAA catcher who hit .214 with 3 homers for Pawtucket last season. And all those old coots started celebrating like they had won the series again. Oh well. It put a damper on the game but not the overall experience which is unique. You will never see major league players in so intimate a setting than you can at a spring training game.

Ed Smith Stadium, as I've said before, is a far nicer facility that Ft. Lauderdale Stadium and with the proposed renovations, it should be even better in 2011.

More pics to follow...

Raw Power...Again. This Time with Splits!

I was playing around with the new splits over on FanGraphs.com and discovered that they had batting stats for various zones of the field. So I broke down the ISO stats for some of the Oriole hitters to see where their power was for 2009

Nick Markakis

Split                ISO
as L to Left        0.138
as L to Center      0.126
as L to Right       0.291

Not surprising that Nick's power comes when he pulls the ball toward Eutaw Street. 14 of his 18 homers went to rightfield. But there is power to right as he hit 24 doubles while going the other way.

Brian Roberts

Split                ISO
as L to Left        0.089
as L to Center      0.087
as L to Right       0.448
as R to Left        0.101
as R to Center      0.182
as R to Right       0.125

When Brian Roberts is batting lefthanded, don't let him turn on one. He hit 15 of his 16 homers to right while batting lefty as well as 20 doubles. His righthanded power is more modest but more evenly distributed.

Luke Scott

Split                ISO
as L to Left        0.097
as L to Center      0.368
as L to Right       0.325

I've always thought of Scott as a dead pull hitter and he's got some great power to right but his power is even better to center. 12 of his 25 homers went to center.

Nolan Reimold

Split                ISO
as R to Left        0.288
as R to Center      0.215
as R to Right       0.143

Good power to the pull side, pretty good up the middle to. Even going the other way is not bad with 5 extra base hits over only 358 ABs.

Matt Wieters

Split                ISO
as L to Left        0.269
as L to Center      0.085
as L to Right       0.167
as R to Left        0.139
as R to Center      0.250
as R to Right       0.108

The splits for Wieters are uneven but his power as a lefty to left field is what kept me encouraged during his early struggles. Even when he was swinging late, he still showed fantastic opposite field power. 5 of his 9 homers went to the opposite field.

Adam Jones

Split                ISO
as R to Left        0.321
as R to Center      0.110
as R to Right       0.213

Power to the pull side. Jones did hit all 3 of his triples to right as well as 3 homers displaying good opposite field power.

Felix Pie

Split                ISO
as L to Left        0.153
as L to Center      0.224
as L to Right       0.273

This is what is so tantalizing about Felix Pie. His power is close to Reimold's output and he's a fantastic defender. It's easy to see him pushing his way into the lineup during Spring Training. If Reimold is DH'ing as he works himself back into shape after Achilles surgery, Pie will have ample opportunity to impress in Sarasota.

The Crystal Ball '10: Nick Markakis

I predicted big things for Nick Markakis last year. I was sure that all signs pointed to a breakout season. Alas, Nick could not even take a small step forward as his OBP fell off the table, his offensive production took a significant step backwards and he destroyed all my predictions that "Markakis is the Second Coming of Enos Slaughter" in one fell swoop.

So maybe Nick is not destined for superstardom but I refuse to believe that he will be as pedestrian as he was last season. Even if his best career comparison went from Enos Slaughter to Ellis Valentine in one season.

Before we start, let's partake in an annual tradition here at Dempsey's Army. Here's the 2009 Nick Markakis hit chart for OPACY:

It's a beauty. But even though Nick still hits to all fields, I always thought he would develop a bit more power and become a prototypical #3 hitter. Instead, his skill set may be better suited to the #2 hitter role, especially with guys like Nolan Reimold and Adam Jones emerging as more powerful and well-rounded hitters. I do not usually subscribe to the notion of batting order affecting offensive production but there can be a bit of a psychological effect for the hitter. It stands to reason that some hitters change their approach based on their spot in the order. A #3 hitter may feel like they need to swing away more to drive in runs while that same hitter may work the count more to get on base and set the table if they are slotted #2 in the lineup. To that end, Nick's career splits for batting order positions:

 

              AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS    OPS+
2nd          .328   .411   .545   .957    128
3rd          .286   .358   .457   .815     95
 
 

That's 586 plate appearances batting second and 1517 PA's batting third. It's a decent sample. Maybe Nick just hits better in the 2 hole? I think it's worth a try to plug him in there and leave him alone. It certainly couldn't hurt to have the team's two best baserunners at the top of the order.

And I still think Markakis is due for a breakout season. But maybe not in 2010. I am going with a .305/.369/.481 line. That will get him back in the .850 OPS range and who knows? Plug him in as the #2 hitter and maybe he reaches the heights I predicted for him in 2009.

Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

Base Hits: Rumors, Recaps and Rebounds

The year would not be complete without Wayward O's 2009 Recaptacular! Unmissable reading.

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SI's Jon Heyman reports today that the Orioles are still indeed interested in signing Matt Holliday even though Andy MacPhail vehemently denied similiar reports from Fox Sports yesterday.

"The Orioles are laying in the weeds on this," according to a person familiar with Baltimore's thinking...

A report that the Orioles offered Holliday $130 million over eight years was denied by Orioles president/GM Andy MacPhail in The Baltimore Sun. However, MacPhail did not deny interest in the three-time All-Star...

I would still tend to believe MacPhail on this because, as John Sickels laid out nicely last offseason, Heyman is often a media mouthpiece for Scott Boras.

But if Heyman turns out to be correct, MacPhail and The Warehouse take a huge credibility hit.

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At The Bleacher Report, someone calling himself the Baseball Professor lays out the case for a rebound season for Nick Markakis, at least in the fantasy baseball sense.

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Mike Bordick is returning to Baltimore as a minor league offensive coordinator. At first glance, I would rather have Bordick working with guys on infield defense (which he says he may do as well)...

Bordick, 44, will be responsible for working with the club's prospects on offensive fundamentals such as base running, bunting and situational hitting.

Bordick was a pretty good baserunner and bunter (from what I cann recall) but I hope this is not indicative of the Trembley philosophy of "hit and run" and "agressive baserunning" spreading to the whole organization.

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Dave Mc at Weaver's Tantrum offers some thoughts on the "lukewarm" Hot Stove season for the Orioles.


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An entertaining excercise as Dan of Camden Crazies tries to quantify just how bad a major league player he would be.
 
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Base Hits: Blog-O-Sphere, Prospect Lists and a Partridge in a Pear Tree

Some Christmas gifts from the Blog-O-Sphere...

Ben has risen from the ashes of MVN to revive Oriole Central (or is it Camden Central) on the original Wordpress platform and the Oriole blogosphere is richer because of it.

Similiarly, Crawdaddy, one of my old comrades from the Baltimore Orioles Round Table, has also resurfaced with Camden Depot now on the Blogger platform servicing all your Oriole scouting needs. Crawdaddy has also added a neat feature to his website: the 40-man roster with each player's name color-coded to indicate how many minor league options they have remaining. Very useful and leaves me wondering why I didn't think of it myself.

Other MVN refugee news has Oriole Magic writers Anthony and James writing for Anthony's original blog, Oriole Post.

Everybody's back for the holidays... (sniff)

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Relive Nick Markakis' journey through the minor leagues via this article at MiLB.com. Nick is a gift none of us will return.

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Baseball America finally put out their list of the Top 10 Oriole Prospects. One universal in most of these lists has been the rise of soon-to-be Bowie pitcher Zach Britton who come in at #3 on BA's list:

When talking about elite pitching prospects in the Orioles organization, it's time to add Britton's name to the discussion. He was the pitcher of the year in the Carolina League last season, and his 2.70 ERA ranked second in the league...

Britton seems like the typical sinker/slider pitcher, except that his fastball touches 94 mph. His velocity improved last season, and he usually works in the 88-92 range with his sinker, adding a four-seam fastball to go with it.

It also says he has improved his changeup thanks to tips from Brian Matusz. That's a good thing, first because he improved his changeup and secondly because it says a lot about Matusz that he took the time and had the ability to impart that to a younger pitcher. Matusz gave Britton a gift that will keep on giving through the New Year.

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The Phillies sign Danys Baez.

Who knew that Mr. Reluctant would become a man of mystery so soon after leaving Baltimore.

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Michael Aubrey says he's happy with the moves the Orioles made this season...but he's not really. They add one more veteran corner infield bat and Aubrey is buried in AAA.

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The Orioles have signed 19-year-old LHP Chris Lamb form Australia. Feel free to read the scouting report but it's more improtant evidence that the Orioles are looking overseas for talent.

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Since everybody is posting their Oriole retrospectives of the '00's, I'll link back to mine from earlier this offseason.

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Merry Christmas people.

The Future...Is Now?

Over the last couple of weeks, the Orioles have proven that they cannot even manage to beat the dregs of the American League and find themselves in last place with the worst record in the league and the third worst record in baseball. Coming into Saturday's game, the Orioles had only managed to score a measly 1.7 runs per game for the month of June and it is reflected in the record. This offense was supposed to be decent this season but an anemic offense with the woeful pitching staff makes for a long summer in Baltimore. Does the recent outburst against Atlanta mean the slump is over? I'll believe it when they start doing it against the American League; facing NL hurlers is akin to playing AAA teams.

Instead of whining about the present, let's look to the Orioles' brighter future. There are more important issues than the standings for the Orioles and most of these players won't be here when Baltimore starts winning. How are the players under age 26playing?

Adam Jones:

The last couple weeks have seen Jones flailing and missing with 11 strikeouts and only 1 walk. The slump has worsened as he posted just a .100/.136/.250 line last week.

Jones has broken out this year, now he has to show he can continue to make adjustments.

Nick Markakis:

Since May 15th, Nick Markakis has put up a .211/.262/.307 line for a .569 OPS with only one home run.

That is easily the worst stretch of games for Nick since the first month of his rookie season. Is he injured? Let's hope not. I picked Markakis for a big breakout this season but so far he's gone the other direction. Sometimes, it's hard to remember that Markakis and Reimold are both 25.

Nolan Reimold:

For a guy who was considered a fringy prospect (I don't remember seeing him on anyone's Top 100 list except for Keith Law in recent years), Reimold has been a revelation the last two years. He stayed healthy and dominated the Carolina League last year and didn't miss a step when he showed up at Norfolk this year. Since coming to Baltimore, he is getting on base at a .356 clip (always a concern for him in the minors), has hit 7 home runs in his first 28 games and posted a .316/.435/.526 line last week alone. He appears to be getting better as the weeks go along. The future in the Oriole outfield is bright indeed.

Robert Andino:

I don't think that Robert Andino is ever going to hit well enough to be a starter in the Majors but his glove is giving me enough reason to think I may not hate the Hayden Penn trade in a couple years. A true great glove at short, Andino could be a valuable bench player/utility infielder for the next few years. The bat is Izturis-esque but so is the glove. He's actually played a better short than Izturis in his limited opportunities.

Matt Wieters:

"Matt Wieters Can And Does Assume The Double Play."

In his short professional career, Wieters has shown the ability to move up a level, struggle for a period of time, make adjustments and then destroy opposing pitchers. It looks like he's starting to do that in Baltimore.

Wieters hit .400/.438/.467 last week. He still doesn't have a home run and he still doesn't have an RBI but the signs are there that he's starting to adjust. No offense to Gregg Zaun but he's already a better hitter as he scuffles along.

Brad Bergesen:

When you have a trio of second tier pitching prospects like Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez and Jason Berken, (as opposed to top tier prospects like Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta) you really have to feel lucky if just one of them works out as a starter and truly blessed if another of them ends up as a quality reliever.

The Orioles look to be lucky so far as Brad Bergesen is making his way to being a solid 3rd or 4th guy in a major league rotation. His stuff is not great, he's a sinker/slider pitcher who doesn't look like he's going to strike a bunch of guys out but he seems to be learning how to get the best out of his stuff and let the defense behind him do the heavy lifting.