The Crystal Ball 2011: Brad Bergesen

Killing worms at MLB stadiums since 2009...

Before we get started,a quick rundown of Brad Bergesen's numbers from 2010, followed by 2011 projections from Marcel and Bill James:

               IP     BB/9   K/9   HR/9   ERA   GB%   FIP   
2010          170.0   2.70  4.29   1.38  4.98  48.7  5.14
Marcel        156.0   2.65  5.13   1.10  4.27  ----  4.52
Bill James    198.0   2.36  4.45   1.09  4.27  ----  4.56  

It's interesting that these systems see improvement for Bergesen in 2011. (The FanGraphs fans predictions see improvement as well although not quite as good as these projections...)

My guess would be that, due to his good groundball rate, the projections do not see Bergesen giving up 26 home runes again. Bergesen's gave up home runs at an 11.9% HR/FB rate. That does not seem likely to continue. Bergesen never gave up home runs at anything close to those rates in the minors or last season. Unless he just completely falls apart, that number should come way down.

And that's the key, isn't it? Bergesen is a guy who lives on the edge. His factball barely cracks 90 mph, he doesn't strike guys out and outside of his slider, I'm not sure you can point to any of his pitches as a "plus" pitch.

But he gets by on very good control, getting a ton of ground balls and, in turn, giving up few home runs. With that kind of skillset, he really shouldn't have survived in the AL East until year three but he has.

Everything has to go right for Bergesen to be an effective starter; there is no room for error. And maybe that was part of his problem during the first half of last season. He was sidelined from July until February by the Billy Butler he took off his shin and then sidelined even longer when he tweaked his arm shooting a MASN commercial of all things. He didn't get an offseason and it seemed like it took him awhile to get it all together in 2010. A hurler who survives on fantastic control like Bergesen relys on a very, very repeatable delivery and the layoff had to hurt him a bit.

After a stint in Norfolk and another in the bullpen, Bergesen's second half was much better.

            IP     K   BB   HR   ERA
Apr-Jun    58.0   14   20    8  6.83
Jul-Sep   112.0   67   31   18  4.02
 

(For a more detailed look at Bergesen's turnaround, read this post from Dan at Camden Crazies.)

Bergesen is never going to be a great pitcher but he can certainly be a useful 4th or 5th starter. He has a fair shot to throw 180 innings of league average ERA in 2011. It's not the stuff Cy Young awards are made of but Tim Wakefield made a career of it.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta

With the signing of Justin Duchscherer, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta became linked for Spring Training 2011. With his addition Tillman and Arrieta are the most likely candidates to be sent down to Norfolk. (Although with this news, maybe not so much.)

Jeremy Guthrie, Duchscherer (if healthy) and Brian Matusz are locks for the rotation. Bergesen is probably staying...he's not great but fairly reliable. So Tillman and Arrieta are dueling for one spot.

Some point to Arrieta's September as proof that he has turned a corner and should be the front runner for the final spot in the rotation. But while the numbers are great (2-1, 2.60 ERA, 13 K, 2 BB) but it was only over 17 innings. But over the course of the season, he walked nearly as many as he struck out. Not a good recipe for a young pitcher to make a leap forward.

Speaking of the numbers...

              IP    K   BB   HR   ERA   FIP   WHIP
Arrieta     100.1  52   48    9  4.66  4.76  1.535
Tillman      53.2  31   31    9  5.87  5.89  1.528

Yeah...still doesn't look great for Tillman here.

But it seems to me that Tillman got more "swings and misses" with his stuff last season. So let's compare with the data from Fangraphs. O-Swing is swings outside the strike zone, Z-Swing is swings in the strike zone. Swing is total swing percentage, F-Strike is first pitch strikes and SWStr is swinging strikes.

           O-Swing%  Z-Swing%  Swing%  F-Strike%  SwStr%
Tillman     25.2%      66.0%   43.2%     50.0%     6.3%
Arrieta     29.0%      61.6%   43.6%     54.1%     5.7%

I thought Tillman would have had a bit more of an advantage here but they are pretty much even. Which is disappointing. I would have expected a bit more swinging strikes from Tillman's stuff than Arrieta's but up to this point, they are in a dead heat.

If I had to choose, I still like Tillman's upside better than Arrieta's but they are very similar at this point. This spring, I'd watch the strikeouts and walks for both of these guys very carefully. Homers will happen in Florida, ERAs and Wins will fluctuate with the defense but the walks and strikeouts will be the best bellwether for their competition in Sarasota. And it starts tomorrow when Tillman takes the mound against the Phillies.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Brian Roberts

Don't you know that he is a shooting star?

We should enjoy Brian Roberts while we have him.

He is the greatest Oriole second baseman ever. He leads all Baltimore second basemen in games played, homers, triples, doubles, hits, stolen bases, runs scored, RBI, batting average and slugging. Sure, you could make the argument for Davey Johnson or Bobby Grich but those guys got traded. Roberts is the best second sacker to wear the orange and black.

That's the good news.

The bad news is he is coming off an inury filled season where he only played 59 games and posted a .745 OPS, his lowest output since 2004. (Remember how much you missed seeing him leadoff games last season? We take him for granted, don't we?)  Is he healthy? From all accounts, he is fully recovered from his injuries he struggled with in 2010.

And if he is fully healthy, things could be looking up. Projections are kind to him (Marcel: .764 OPS, .341 wOBA; ZiPS: .767 OPS) and while middle infielders typically don't age well, Roberts will be 33 in 2011, not 34 or 35 when age tends to really take its toll.

Where he could be a liability is in the field. Although he seemed to have a rebound season with the glove in 2010, it is likely that his defensive skills will continue to erode. The best we can hope for is that Roberts is an average defender. His 2008-2009 UZR and Total Zone numbers were subpar.

I think Roberts understands the limitations of his body as he continues to age. He's not going to be stretching doubles into triples as often (I remember the "doggin' it" accusations from fans in 2009 as he rapped 56 doubles but just a lone triple. As if he was lazy...) and he's not going to run as much (although I would still expect him to steal close to 30 bases) as he tries to preserve himself and realizes his blazing speed is not quite as game changing as it once was.

But he still draws his walks and gets on base. His walk rate over the last two seasons in still over 10% and in this revamped lineup full of power bats, that will be his (and Nick Markakis') most improtant job. Just get on base, set the table and let Lee, Scott and Guerrero drive you in. And he's still effective enough to be really, really good at that.

So just continue to enjoy Brian Roberts. He's a living piece of Baltimore history, the best second baseman the team has ever seen.  And he'll be gone before you know it.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Matt Wieters

Matt Wieters flashes his surprising glove.

What can be said about Matt Wieters at this point?

My predictions have been completely wrong. Before last season, I was fooled by a strong finish to the 2009 season. Before 2009, I was fooled by the expectations of every scout and projection on the planet. I have been wrong but I'm not alone.

The expectations for Wieters have been sky high since he was drafted. He hit at every level in the minors. He was described as a "mutant cross between Joe Mauer and Mike Piazza". He was considered the best prospect in baseball and it wasn't really up for debate.

His MLB career numbers:

Year         PA  R 2B 3B HR BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS OPS+
2 Seasons   887 72 37  2 20 75 180 .266 .328 .393 .721   92

That is not exactly what was expected of him.

To make matters worse, he took a bit of a step back at the plate in his sophomore season. His line drive rate was just 15.4% which supports his weak .287 BABIP. He's not driving the ball enough and his power hasn't developed yet.

Adam Jones kind of implied that Wieters just needed to put a little extra work in if he wants to get the most out of his talent. Is there a makeup issue to be concerned about? I would guess not. Unexpectedly, Matt Wieters has become one of the better defensive catchers in the game according to both The Bill James Handbook and the results of the BtB Catcher Defense Rankings. You probably don't get that good with your defense if you aren't willing to work. If there was one question about Wieters when he came to the majors, it was whether he could stick behind the plate. On that front, Wieters has exceeded expectations.

On the bright side, Wieters had incremental improvements in his walk rate, strikeout rate and his Isolated Power. And he's only going to play at 25 this season. Anecdotal evidence shows that young catchers sometimes take a little longer to develop at the plate. And that ball just jumps off his bat. His swing looks so effortless that you can't believe the ball is travelling that far.

And a bunch of people are jumping off the Wieters bandwagon. Which probably means he is about to start hitting. But my expectations are tempered. I'm not getting fooled again.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Nick Markakis

In what has become tradition, the Nick Markakis' hit chart from the 2010 season. The light blue dots are singles, next shade darker are doubles, etc. (image courtesy of katron.org): 

It's always a thing of beauty. He hits to all fields and still hits with a bit of power.

I have given up on waiting for Markakis to blossom into a star but he's still a very good hitter. And although he's never developed the power I had hoped, he still strokes a ton of doubles:

Rk           Player  2B   Age
1     Matt Holliday 217 26-30
2     Robinson Cano 206 23-27
3     Nick Markakis 206 22-26
4    Miguel Cabrera 203 23-27
5     Albert Pujols 199 26-30
 

And while I don't think the extra protection in the lineup will help him that much, there is one thing it is likely to do...keep him in the #2 spot in the order. For his career:

          Split   G  GS   PA  BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS
    Batting 2nd 186 184  846  94 122 .324 .400 .530 .930
    Batting 3rd 445 443 1966 199 289 .286 .360 .444 .804

It probably doesn't mean much. But I've watched Nick hit 2nd and also further down in the order. He seems more patient and willing to wait for his pitch or take the walk. When he bats lower, he seems to press a bit to try to drive in runs. Some guys alter their philosophy a bit based on where they hit in the order and I think Nick's one of those guys. If things turn out the way the should, Markakis may hit second for most of the season, a spot in the order that complements his strengths as a hitter. And maybe, just maybe, that's the thing that will help him take a step forward in his career.

Or this may all be wishful thinking.

I still can't believe that Markakis is an .800 OPS level hitter. I think (or hope) he will OPS closer to .850 than .800 this season.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Luke Scott

It seems like anytime I sit down to write about Luke Scott, I feel compelled to defend him.

This is because the Oriole fan base still underestimates him and they fail to understand what a good hitter he is. The Vladimir Guerrero signing has highlighted this fact yet again. When debating the relative merits of the two players, I was told that I was "way overvaluing Luke Scott" (even though over the past 3 seasons, Scott and Guerrero have exactly the same .845 OPS and that Scott has a better park-adjusted OPS+, 122 vs 121, than Vlad) and that Luke did not "significantly outperform" Vlad in 2010 (even though Scott posted a .902 OPS while Guerrero put up an .841 OPS. I'd call that significant). Just when I thought it was impossible, Luke Scott is getting even less respect than he ever has, even after his best season to date. He's quickly becoming the Rodney Dangerfield of baseball.

I won't even address the assertion that signing Vladimir Guerrero "gives the O's a legitimate clean up hitter which the Orioles have NOT had since Palmeiro" (yes, these are all actual quotes) since I already have, a couple of times. Scott was one of the premier cleanup hitters in the American League last season. Period.

But since people are quick to dismiss 2010 as Scott's career year, a performance that he won't be able to repeat...fine. One year means nothing. Evidently, three years means little as well. So let's go back five seasons and see how Luke stacks up.

Looking at all qualified MLB batters over the past five seasons, Scott ranks 27th in slugging and 17th in Isolated Power. That puts him just on the cusp of all the elite power hitters in the game. And he has sustained it for five seasons.

I'm going to quote The Hardball Times' Steve Treder once again as he gives a wonderful definition of the cleanup hitter:

The role has been called "cleanup" since forever for a reason: See the runners soiling the pristine white bases out there? This guy's job is to clean them bases up, get them runners home.


Obviously it's great if a cleanup hitter hits for a high average and/or draws a lot of walks, but if he's doing either or both of those things without hitting for power, he isn't properly performing the cleanup function. Setting the table is a means to an end, not an end in itself; the purpose of getting on base is to come around and score. The cleanup hitter is there to convert baserunners into runs, to finish what the others have started. And that means hitting for power, and plenty of it.

Sounds like Luke Scott to me.

For the past 5 seasons:

                         AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   OPS+   ISO   2B   HR
Luke Scott 2006-2010    .272  .357  .512  .869   126   .241  131  103

Pretty nice numbers, huh?

I think it's safe to say that Scott is a good bet to at least slug .500 and get on base at a .350 clip. That's a nice floor for a player who continues to be better than anyone will give him credit for.

So if you want to give Mr. Guerrero the label of "legitimate cleanup hitter", that just fine. But just know that now the Orioles have two of them.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Adam Jones

Of all the 26-and-under talent that he Oriole have on their roster, Adam Jones is the most likely to have a breakout season in 2011.

Really, it feels like it should have happened last year. A 6'2" centerfielder who can run like the wind and shows even the limited power that Jones has up to this point is an intriguing package. There's a lot of baseball potential in his physical gifts.

Potential. There's that dirty word again. The Orioles are full of players whom the fans are waiting on to convert that potential into useful products like hits, home runs and wins. But Jones is poised to do just that.

Leaving out his disastrous April, here's Jones' stats from May 1st on:

                    BA      OBP     SLG     OPS   BB    K   2B   HR  
Jones '10          .297    .341    .454    .795   21   95   21   16   

You can accuse me of cherry-picking the numbers but it's not like he had a great May either.

But those numbers are basically what he hit the season before. So why am I encouraged? I can't put my finger on it. Maybe it's because of the work he put in to overcome the start of his season. He learned to lay off the low and outside pitch better and made the adjustments to salvage his season. This gives me hope that his free swinging ways can be tempered a bit and he can become a more consistent and effective offensive player. And any young player who has the mental toughness and work ethic to overcome a rough patch...well, that just bodes well for a physical talent like Jones. It's a good combination.

According to Baseball Reference, his most similar comps are Chili Davis and Dave Winfield, two players who overcame their aversion to the walk and became more patient hitters. I'll take either of those careers for Jones, especially from a center fielder.

He's always going to be a bit of a free swinger, something that may hold him back offensively. But a new hitting coach, one that has experience actually improving young hitters, can't hurt.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Jeremy Guthrie

I don't know how Jeremy Guthrie will pitch in 2011. But I'll wager on one thing; he will outperform his FIP. After all, he's done it for the last three seasons.

When I looked at the 2011 Bill James Handbook last week, I discovered that Guthrie is among the best at keeping opposing batters off the bases, among the likes of Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett and Felix Hernandez.

I decided to pull some data from FanGraphs and see where Guthrie ranked in terms of outperforming his FIP over the past four seasons. The results:

                FIP - ERA
Trevor Cahill      0.97
Johan Santana      0.67
Jeremy Guthrie     0.62
Shaun Marcum       0.61
Matt Cain          0.46

That's good company for Guthrie. Really, those top 4 are head and shoulders above the rest of baseball in this regard.

How do they do it? Three of them have BABIP's under .280 and the other (Santana) only had a .286 BABIP. Those numbers help but they are just results. What do they do to keep the BABIP down? How do they outperform their FIP year after year? What do they have in common?

In short, they have little in common. They don't all have live fastballs, they are not all groundball pitchers, they are not all big strikeout guys. They don't all pitch in front of great defenses, they pitch in pitcher and hitter friendly stadiums, some throw a ton of changeups, others throw a ton of sliders.

The only thing they all do reasonably well is limit their walks but FIP should already account for that.

It's probably not any one thing that these pitchers do but a combination of characteristics. But they all have a knack for outperforming their FIP, however they arrive at it.

My theory on Guthrie? He gives up a lot of weak flyballs and his outfielders have pretty good arms. But that's a weak theory, I'll admit. If anyone else has some ideas, let me know.

Guthrie in 2011 will be a slightly above average pitcher again and go for 30+ starts. Considering the rest of the rotation will be 25 and under, it's nice to have one guy who should be steady, if not spectacular.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Jeremy Accardo

The Orioles signed Blue Jays reliever Jeremy Accardo to a one year, $1.08 million deal.

It's a bit of a head scratcher. The Orioles did not extend an arbitration offer to Matt Albers because they likely would have had to pay him $1 million for 2011. And I didn't disagree with that decision because the bottom line is that Albers just can't throw strikes. Which is what makes the Accardo signing a little strange.

Rate stats for Albers and Accardo over the past three seasons:

           K/9   BB/9   ERA+   HR/9   K/BB    WHIP   
Albers     5.8   4.3     96     0.6   1.35    1.53
Accardo    5.4   4.9     98     0.6   1.08    1.70

Granted, Accardo's rates come over far fewer innings but these stats are fairly close and Accardo's minor league numbers over that span don't show anything different.

The only thing Accardo has over Albers is that he's been a good pitcher before. It was only for the 2007 season but he was able to throw strikes. But data from four seasons ago is not exactly a sign of hope.

Accardo will probably replace Matt Albers...with all the good and bad that implies.

The Crystal Ball '11: Cesar Izturis

Cesar Izturis will be returning to Baltimore in 2011. Thankfully, he will not be the everyday option at shortstop as the Orioles inked him to a $1.5 million, one year deal. With incentives, the deal could net Izzy more than $2 mil for next season. He will serve as a utility infielder.

But just because he probably doesn't deserve a full time starting job doesn't mean he can't be a valuable asset. The asset he brings, obviously, is his glove.

For all MLB shortstops, UZR, UZR component stats and UZR/150 for the last three seasons:

Name             DPR    RngR    ErrR    UZR    UZR/150
Jimmy Rollins    1.3    10.3    12.7    24.4    10.5
J.J. Hardy      -3.5    21.3     3.5    21.4     9.1
Cesar Izturis   -1.6    14.1     8.8    21.3     8.7
Alex Gonzalez    3.4     3.1     6.4    12.8     7.0
Alexei Ramirez   1.6    11.6    -0.9    12.4     6.0
Elvis Andrus    -1.1    15.4    -2.0    12.2     6.7
Troy Tulowitzki  3.3    -4.8    11.0     9.5     3.7
Yunel Escobar   -2.6    10.8     0.9     9.1     3.4
Erick Aybar      2.1    11.3    -5.4     8.0     3.3

And the Total Zone with Location (TLZ) for all MLB shortstops for the last three season:

Name             TZL
Yunel Escobar   41.8
Cesar Izturis   30.1
J.J. Hardy      24.9
Marco Scutaro   19.9
Troy Tulowitzki 16.3
Hanley Ramirez  13.9
Jimmy Rollins   12.9
Michael Young   10.0
Edgar Renteria   7.8
Elvis Andrus     6.1

From these metrics you can see two things; first, that Izturis has been one of the top three fielding shortstops in baseball over the past three seasons. Arguably, you could rank him higher. Second, how about J. J. Hardy? He is Izzy's equal with the glove and is projected to be a league average hitter.

I'm sure Oriole fans find little comfort in Cesar's defensive wizardry since his bat is so bad. But even with the weak bat, Izturis still adds value. Not last year, when FanGraphs had him valued at -0.3 WAR but during an ordinary season, he's a valuable player.

His .545 OPS in 2010 was the lowest of his career and he still almost broke even in term of WAR when you factor in his glove. He was unlucky with his BABIP, even factoring in a slight decline in his Line Drive rate. He will never be a great hitter but even if he posts his career OPS of .618 in 2011, he could be worth 1.0 WAR as a full time player.

But fortunately, he will not be a full time player. He can fill in for an injured Hardy or Brian Roberts or be deployed against lefties versus whom he has a .639 career OPS.

He's not a difference maker by any means but Izturis and his glove should still be quite valuable in a backup role for Baltimore.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Matt Albers

Just ahead of the Thursday night deadline to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players, I thought I should take my first (and possibly last) look through the Crystal Ball at Oriole reliever Matt Albers. Before the 2010 season, I was still a supporter of Albers. I loved his stuff and thought he would eventually learn to control it. I was wrong. After a horrid April, I was the last one left to leap from the Albers bandwagon.

However, it would be wrong to think that Albers didn't do some good things over the last three seasons. Here's some of his stats from FanGraphs.com:

Season     W   L   G    IP    K/9    BB/9   HR/9   BABIP   GB%    HR/FB   ERA   FIP   xFIP
2008       3   3   28   49.0  4.78   4.04   0.73   .258   53.2 %  7.5 %   3.49  4.60  5.02
2009       3   6   56   67.0  6.58   4.84   0.40   .355   48.4 %  4.5 %   5.51  3.92  4.70
2010       5   3   62   75.2  5.83   4.04   0.71   .305   56.5 %  8.7 %   4.52  4.24  4.46

As you can see, his FIP was respectable and his xFIP was the best of his career. The ground ball rate is very good thanks to his sinking fastball. The peripherals are generally good.

However, his walk rate continues to be above 4.00 BB/9 which is not good. You need to strikeout 8 or 9 per 9 innings to make that work.

His Pitch F/X numbers show that he's added a pitch back to his repertoire. The slider.

Season  FB             SL            CB
2008    76.7% (91.1)                 22.6% (78.0) 
2009    75.1% (92.8)                 24.3% (79.2)  
2010    73.0% (92.5)   10.9% (85.6)  16.0% (79.0)

And the fact that he throws three pitches instead of two may make the difference for him going forward. Again, his fastball still pops and sinks, he gets good movement on his slider and his curve.

But he can't throw strikes. And there's no evidence that he ever will.

You can't offer Albers arbitration. You've got to cut him loose and see if you can bring him back at what he made last season, let him try to win a job in Spring Training. It's a risk and the Oriole bullpen depth isn't enough that you can just let him go without mulling it over but you can't pay him close to $1 mil to stay.

The Crystal Ball 2011: Mark Reynolds

With the arrival of Mark Reynolds to Baltimore, we looked at the drama that will accompany him. There will be 475 ft game-winning homers followed by quadruple strikeout games. Highs and lows like Mt. Everest and Death Valley. Watching Reynolds in an Oriole uniform is going to be like dating the crazy bad girl who you know is bad for you. But she's fantastic in bed so you put up with it and you're happy...until she torches all your clothes.

But now we must look a little closer about the kind of player he is. On the surface, he hit .198 and struck out 211 times. So he must be a huge out machine, right? Well, kind of...

Leaders in outs made last season, with less than 625 plate appearances.

                      Outs
1. Carlos Lee         479
2. Jose Lopez         473
3. Alex Gonzalez      464
4. Ty Wigginton       461
5. Vernon Wells       451
6. Ryan Theriot       450
.
.
.
38. Ryan Howard       413
39. Lyle Overbay      413
40. Mark Reynolds     412
41. Michael Bourn     411
42. Carlos Gonzalez   407

Even is a very down year, Reynolds trails a bunch of people. Why? Because even though he strikes out a ton, he can take a walk. Best walk rates in the majors last season:

               BB%
Barton        16.0
Fielder       16.0
Pena          14.9
Pujols        14.7
Bautista      14.6
Heyward       14.6
Zobrist       14.0
Votto         14.0
Reynolds      13.9

In addition, he has a bit of speed for a big guy. He only grounded into 8 double plays last season. Yes, some of that is a function of all the strikeouts he piles up but he stole 24 bases in 2009 and 7 last season. This is not to suggest that he is a good base stealer, just that he has pretty good footspeed for a guy who goes 6'2" and 220 lbs.

Something else he brings to the table in his glove. Talking to Diamondback fans, they are quick to point out that Reynolds was primarily a shortstop in the minors, as recently as 2006. His 2007-2009 fielding numbers are pretty brutal but they steadily improved and he was able to post a UZR/150 of +2.5 for 2010. It could be that Arizona had to live with his learning curve and that Reynolds will be an average MLB third baseman with the glove. Maybe better. Regardless, he is assured of being better than the Miguel Tejada/Josh Bell combo the team had last season.

As far as a projection, I have no idea how Reynolds will fare with a move from the NL West to the AL East. You would have to think he will hit 30+ homers and slug north of .500. But he's coming from a pretty good offensive park in Arizona so Camden Yards will not give him much of a boost with his numbers, if any. He's going to be facing tougher pitching, pitchers who may be able to exploit his offensive weaknesses better but it wasn't like the guy was facing chumps in his old division. Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jiminez, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsly, Mat Latos, Jonathan Sanchez and, oh yeah, Tim Lincecum. Maybe the change in leagues won't impact him as much as we think.

Most projection systems are projecting a mild rebound. Even if he hits .235, thats going to give us some pretty good offensive production from the hot corner. I'm cautiously optimistic that he can do it.

The Crystal Ball '10: Luke Scott

Now that Miguel Tejada has returned to the Orioles, there has been a lot of talk that he will be the de facto clean up hitter. But this isn't 2004. Tejada is not a slugger anymore. But Luke Scott is.

While batting orders are overrated in general, the classic wisdom wants your most powerful hitter in the clean up spot. The most powerful hitter on the Oriole roster is Luke Scott. He led the team in slugging in 2009 and if not for Aubrey Huff's career season and Mora's last gasp of baseball life in 2008, he would have led the team in slugging in 2008 too.

But he has posted an ISO (you know how I love ISO) north of .200 for the past two seasons and no other player on the roster has done that. If fact, since 2005 Scott has an ISO of .231, tied with Matt Holliday and ahead of hitters like Adrian Gonzalez, Dan Uggla, Vlad Guerrero and Curtis Granderson. He is an excellent power hitter and just on the cusp of levels that could be called elite (he's 26th since 2005...). Raw power? Scott's got plenty of it.

But for all the power he displays, Scott has hit cleanup only a handful of times since joining the team. For 2008, I can understand it as Huff was on fire and slugging .522. But last year? Only 8 games as the cleanup hitter. Scott is a flawed hitter. But he has the most important attribute for a guy hitting #4 in your lineup. Raw power.

A sample lineup:

1.  Brian Roberts

2.  Nick Markakis

3.  Adam Jones

4.  Luke Scott

5. Nolan Reimold

6. Matt Wieters

7. Miguel Tejada

8. Garret Atkins

9. Cesar Izturis

Who else is a better option? As they stand now, only Scott is a real threat to slug .500 and ISO north of .200. There's no reason not to plug him in and let him drive those runners in. So let's give him a shot and watch him rack up the RBI.

Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

The Crystal Ball '10: Miguel Tejada

I was going to do a Crystal Ball on Ty Wigginton this week. That seems like a waste of time now.

Break out your old Tejada jersey. You know you still have it.

Since every one else has weighed in on this deal over the weekend, I guess I will too. I am on record that I saw no need to bring in anybody else to play third base this season. I thought there were internal options that could have held down the fort until top 3B prospect Josh Bell was ready to take over sometime this season. But if they were going to pick someone up , I suppose that Miguel Tejada was the most complete third baseman left on the market. He can still hit a little and he should be able to play above average defense. It's not a bunch of money and it's only for one season. There is no bad 1-year contract really, the money isn't bad and if Bell is really, really ready, the team won't let Tejada won't block him.

Tejada had a .313/.340/.455 line (14 HR, 46 2B) for Houston last year which gives him a .799 OPS, very close to what he had for Baltimore in 2007. That's a pretty good bat for a shortstop, not so much for a third baseman. Coming back to the stronger league, CHONE projects him at .767 OPS which seems reasonable. That production would have put him squarely in the middle of all MLB third baseman and light years ahead of Melvin Mora's .679 OPS from a year ago. Tejada will hit in the .290-.300 range, hit double digit homers and 30+ doubles. And in case you forgot, he'll swing at anything loosely near the plate.

How will the glove play? Last year, Tejada was one of the worst defensive shortstops in baseball according to UZR and no team was looking to sign him as a shortstop for 2010. His range is diminished and his strong arm is still occasionally erratic. I would guess that he will not embarrass himself at third but I don't think he will be even average.

Was he worth bringing back to Baltimore? It depends on your goal. He will improve the team for 2010. I just hope that The Warehouse keeps its eye on the ball and trades Tejada if Josh Bell starts destroying the International League.


Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

The Crystal Ball '10: Nolan Reimold

Nolan Reimold was not supposed to be in Baltimore in 2009.

Injuries had limited his 2007 campaign to 53 games and in 2008 he was going to have to repeat AA. Baltimore seemed a long way off.

But Reimold got back on track as he put in a full healthy season in Bowie posting a .284/.367/.501 in 2008. Norfolk was in his sights but few expected him in Baltimore until September.  Reimold changed all that by destroying International League pitching to the tune of a .384/.485/.743 line in 31 games for Norfolk. His hot bat and untimely injuries to Adam Jones and Luke Scott garnered Reimold a recall in mid-May. His .279/.365/.466 line (including 15 homers) in Baltimore made sure he stayed. He was a breath of fresh air in left field given the crew that manned that position in the pre-Luke Scott era.

I was a little surprised that he got on base and slugged as well as he did since he was less than a year removed from AA but given his minor league track record maybe I shouldn't have been. All he has done in the minors is get on base (.383 OBP in minor league career) and hit for power (.522 SLG in the minors).

If he can play all season, he should OPS north of .850 with 25 home runs. The only Achilles' Heel is...his Achilles Tendon. Reimold had a surgery for an Achilles tendon tear in the offseason and although he indicated at the Sarasota FanFest that he would be ready for 2010, Roch Kubatko reported last week that:

Nolan Reimold isn't certain that he'll be full-go when he reports to spring training next month. He still hasn't done any sprints since undergoing surgery on his left Achilles on Sept. 23.

Achilles tendon injuries are tricky and they can take longer to fully heal than you might expect. Acceleration is the enemy of a healing Achilles and it is a bit odd that Dave Trembley seems to be assuming that Reimold will be able to play left field from day one.

So, it boils down to health. If Reimold is fully recovered from the surgery, we can expect big things. If not, we always have Felix Pie and Luke Scott on the roster.


Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

The Crystal Ball '10: Adam Jones

According to Baseball-Reference.com, these are the four most similiar batter to Adam Jones through the age of 23:

Corey Patterson 
Junior Felix
Carlos Beltran
Dave Winfield

Now that's a wide range of future outcomes.

But unlike most of these players, Jones has steadily improved at the plate in each full season. Only Dave Winfield can make the same claim.

Some key stats:

Adam Jones

            AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   BB%   K%    ISO  
2007       .246  .300  .400  .700   5.8  32.3  .154
2008       .270  .311  .400  .711   4.6  22.6  .130
2009       .277  .335  .457  .792   7.1  19.7  .180

Those are great signs for the future. Not only are his traditional stats getting better, his peripheral stats are heading in the right direction too. That means the production is no fluke.

On top of all of this, he's a damn good centerfielder. In terms of UZR, he wasn't the best centerfielder in the American League and based on last year alone he probably wasn't deserving of the Gold Glove that he won. But over the last two years I believe he is the best centerfielder in the AL and maybe even in all of baseball.

Many Oriole fans want to mortgage the farm to get Adrian Gonzalez away from the Padres and given the surplus of outfielders in Baltimore and the fact that Jones is from San Diego, Jones would probably be included in any package that brings Gonzalez east. But I think that Jones has a very good chance to be just as good a hitter as Gonzalez in two or three years. His power was very good at age 23 and you could project him to hit 25-30 home runs by the age of 27.

He's a special talent but I am a bit hesitant to predict another quantum leap forward at the plate like last year. Look for a .282/.340/.465 line from Jones and hopefully a fully healthy season.

The Crystal Ball '10: Cesar Izturis

To go against the grain, I was going to take a closer look at Cesar Izturis' offensive game and try to come up with something of a silver lining to the dark cloud that is Izturis' bat.

As you might expect, I came up pretty dry on that front.

One thing that is encouraging though, is that after a rash of injuries to his hamstrings over the years, Izturis seems to have regained some of his speed. 8.2% of his hits were infield hits, he stole 12 bases in 114 games and a full 33% of his bunts attempts went for hits. The wheels are back and you'd like to think that if not for an appendectimy mid-season that he he would have stolen 20 bases.

Beyond that, there is no trend that points to any noticable change in Izturis' offensive output one way or another. He is a free-swinging, light-hitting, shortstop who adds little besides decent speed to the lineup.

So it's a good thing that he is possibly the best shortstop glove in the Majors.

Only the Cards' Brendan Ryan added more WAR with their glove than Izturis. Forgetting that Derek Jeter got the award for a second, Izturis turned in Gold Glove caliber defense by any metric you want to use. In fact, over the last two seasons Izturis has posted a 12.7 UZR/150 which leads the majors, well above the next guy (Jimmy Rollins at 8.8).

Besides, these young pitchers will need a guy like Izturis behind them this year. Forget about a reliable closer, a slick-fielding shortstop will do wonders for the psyche of a young pitcher battling for wins. Expect that support from Izturis and expect some timely stolen bases but anything he does at the plate will obviously be gravy. Izturis brings considerable value with the glove but that is all.


Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

The Crystal Ball '10: Nick Markakis

I predicted big things for Nick Markakis last year. I was sure that all signs pointed to a breakout season. Alas, Nick could not even take a small step forward as his OBP fell off the table, his offensive production took a significant step backwards and he destroyed all my predictions that "Markakis is the Second Coming of Enos Slaughter" in one fell swoop.

So maybe Nick is not destined for superstardom but I refuse to believe that he will be as pedestrian as he was last season. Even if his best career comparison went from Enos Slaughter to Ellis Valentine in one season.

Before we start, let's partake in an annual tradition here at Dempsey's Army. Here's the 2009 Nick Markakis hit chart for OPACY:

It's a beauty. But even though Nick still hits to all fields, I always thought he would develop a bit more power and become a prototypical #3 hitter. Instead, his skill set may be better suited to the #2 hitter role, especially with guys like Nolan Reimold and Adam Jones emerging as more powerful and well-rounded hitters. I do not usually subscribe to the notion of batting order affecting offensive production but there can be a bit of a psychological effect for the hitter. It stands to reason that some hitters change their approach based on their spot in the order. A #3 hitter may feel like they need to swing away more to drive in runs while that same hitter may work the count more to get on base and set the table if they are slotted #2 in the lineup. To that end, Nick's career splits for batting order positions:

 

              AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS    OPS+
2nd          .328   .411   .545   .957    128
3rd          .286   .358   .457   .815     95
 
 

That's 586 plate appearances batting second and 1517 PA's batting third. It's a decent sample. Maybe Nick just hits better in the 2 hole? I think it's worth a try to plug him in there and leave him alone. It certainly couldn't hurt to have the team's two best baserunners at the top of the order.

And I still think Markakis is due for a breakout season. But maybe not in 2010. I am going with a .305/.369/.481 line. That will get him back in the .850 OPS range and who knows? Plug him in as the #2 hitter and maybe he reaches the heights I predicted for him in 2009.

Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

The Crystal Ball '10: Brian Roberts

There was nothing more irritating, in a season where Brian Roberts was having a record-setting year for hitting doubles, to listen to people snipe at Roberts for not hustling on the bases. Where were the triples? Only one? He's just stopping at second to pad his stats, right?

Hear this people...Roberts was a 31-year-old second baseman and speed is a vital component of his game. He's slowing down. He knows this and being the smart baserunner that he is, he will not risk getting thrown out trying to stretch a double into a triple.

But he is still a great baserunner. He stole 30 bases and only was caught 7 times, good for a spectacular 81% success rate. And to anyone who thinks he wasn't hustling...he stole third 14 times in 2009, more than any other American League player and was not caught once! No hustle?!?!

Anyway, enough of that rant.

The reality is that Roberts will be 32 in 2010 and as I said in last year's Crystal Ball, second baseman with Roberts' profile do not age well and you can start to see signs of that decline. While he remains a good baserunner, the stolen base total have dropped for three seasons (50, 40, 30) as has his defense in terms of UZR (5.8, -1.5, -0.9, -8.9). UZR does fluctuate but his UZR was bad enough last year to drop him from a WAR north of 4 to 3.4 in 2009. That's still nothing to sneeze at...but I have to admit it's troubling.

So what's the best thing Roberts could do at the plate to continue to add value? Keep stroking doubles, keep stealing bases smartly and get that OBP back up above .370. It dropped to .356 and as the wheels start to slow, he needs to draw a few more walks to remain a serious threat on the bases.

Enjoy him while he lasts. Roberts is a uniquely gifted hitter for a second baseman and the smartest baserunner I've ever seen. But I can't shake the feeling that we are witnessing the beginnings of a (hopefully) slow decline.

Realistically, I'm sticking with the CHONE projection of .278/.358/.427 line with a 3.3 WAR. Not bad, just not the level of greatness we got used to.

Photo by Phil Romans and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

The Crystal Ball '10: Matt Wieters

I was at MASN's Blogger Night at Camden Yards the night that the decision to call Matt Wieters up to Baltimore was announced. The mood was electric. It is rare, in these dozen years of losing, to see that kind of excitement among Oriole fans and it was easy to see the crushing expectations that were placed on the shoulders of the young catcher.

Many fans were disappointed in Wieters 2009 debut and many national baseball writers are significantly lowering expectations.

Did those expectations get to him? Maybe but I doubt it. It may seem like Wieters marched through the minor leagues like a hot knife through butter but the reality is that at each level he struggled for a time, then destroyed the league. Outside of A+ Frederick, he has to make adjustments at every level.

I predicted it would take Wieters a full two months of games to adjust to major league pitching.

                      G    AVG    OBP    SLG    OPS    HR
May 29th-July 28th    39   .273   .322   .388   .711     3
July 29th - EOS       57   .298   .352   .428   .780     6  

Those end of the season numbers include a torrid September/October where Wieters hit .333/.395/.486 with 4 homers.

Wieters was just short of being a league average hitter (97 OPS+) and as an American League catcher that was good enough for the third-best hitting catcher in the league. Not bad for a rookie.

So enormous expectations aside, it was a very solid rookie season for Matt Wieters. His defense improved as well and projections show that he will be above average in blocking pitches and by the end of the season his Caught Stealing numbers were right around average for a catcher not named Laird.

And the fact that he improved as the season went along gives me hope that he's making the necessary adjustments to succeed in the majors. I expect big thing from Wieters in 2009. Look, he OPS'ed 1.014 in the minors, I think it's doubtful that his power just disappeared. Besides, 5 of his 9 homers were to the opposite field. He even hit a homer off of Chad Bradford! You know how hard that is? Big power in that bat.

If you've seen my WAR projections, you know I expect Wieters to OPS .825 in his sophomore season with a chance for a quantum leap to even more. Relax, Orioles fans. our savior is here.

*Keith Law photo courtesy of Matt Wieters Facts