The Crystal Ball 2011: Matt Albers

Just ahead of the Thursday night deadline to tender contracts to arbitration eligible players, I thought I should take my first (and possibly last) look through the Crystal Ball at Oriole reliever Matt Albers. Before the 2010 season, I was still a supporter of Albers. I loved his stuff and thought he would eventually learn to control it. I was wrong. After a horrid April, I was the last one left to leap from the Albers bandwagon.

However, it would be wrong to think that Albers didn't do some good things over the last three seasons. Here's some of his stats from FanGraphs.com:

Season     W   L   G    IP    K/9    BB/9   HR/9   BABIP   GB%    HR/FB   ERA   FIP   xFIP
2008       3   3   28   49.0  4.78   4.04   0.73   .258   53.2 %  7.5 %   3.49  4.60  5.02
2009       3   6   56   67.0  6.58   4.84   0.40   .355   48.4 %  4.5 %   5.51  3.92  4.70
2010       5   3   62   75.2  5.83   4.04   0.71   .305   56.5 %  8.7 %   4.52  4.24  4.46

As you can see, his FIP was respectable and his xFIP was the best of his career. The ground ball rate is very good thanks to his sinking fastball. The peripherals are generally good.

However, his walk rate continues to be above 4.00 BB/9 which is not good. You need to strikeout 8 or 9 per 9 innings to make that work.

His Pitch F/X numbers show that he's added a pitch back to his repertoire. The slider.

Season  FB             SL            CB
2008    76.7% (91.1)                 22.6% (78.0) 
2009    75.1% (92.8)                 24.3% (79.2)  
2010    73.0% (92.5)   10.9% (85.6)  16.0% (79.0)

And the fact that he throws three pitches instead of two may make the difference for him going forward. Again, his fastball still pops and sinks, he gets good movement on his slider and his curve.

But he can't throw strikes. And there's no evidence that he ever will.

You can't offer Albers arbitration. You've got to cut him loose and see if you can bring him back at what he made last season, let him try to win a job in Spring Training. It's a risk and the Oriole bullpen depth isn't enough that you can just let him go without mulling it over but you can't pay him close to $1 mil to stay.

Has Matt Albers Turned a Corner?

Orioles fans are wondering if Matt Albers, based on his last few outings, has finally turned himself into a decent relief pitcher.

I was strongly on the Albers bandwagon at the beginning of the season but have since jumped off. My analysis at this point is that while Albers has very good stuff, he can't throw it for strikes. When he takes a little off to improve his control, he's very hittable. That's not a winning combination.

But let's take a closer look at Albers' recent success:

                   IP    K   BB   HR    ERA   BABIP
Albers Apr-Jun    33.2  18   19    6   5.61   .277
Albers Jul-Sep    32.1  24   13    0   2.51   .261

OK, the peripherals in terms of strikeout to walk ratio are not great but otherwise, those are pretty good numbers for the second half of the season. There were some theories that Albers was overworked earlier in the season but that does not appear to be the case; he has actually worked more during his stretch of good pitching.

In April, May and June, Albers never had a FIP below 5.50. Since, his FIP hasn't risen above 3.10.

Yes, the 0% homerun rate is unsustainable but he's always been an extreme groundball pitcher and doesn't give up a lot of home runs anyway (which is why I liked him). His issue has always been the walks and the relatively low strikeout rate.

Can he keep throwing strikes? I am suspect at this point; every time I think he's starting to get it, he implodes. But if he can, he'll be a pretty good pitcher. As we have seen, he's been more than serviceable over the second half. If he keeps the walks down, he's an extreme groundball, decent strikeout pitcher. That's a valuable guy to have in the bullpen.

Now we'll see if he can keep it up for the rest of the season. I cautiously step aboard the bandwagon again...

Bergey Back to Bush Leagues

So there was this press release:

ORIOLES OPTION RHP BRAD BERGESEN TO TRIPLE-A NORFOLK


The Orioles have announced that RHP BRAD BERGESEN has been optioned to Triple-A Norfolk. Bergesen was 3-4 with a 6.50 ERA (54.0IP, 39ER) in 12 games (10 starts) for the Orioles this season.

A corresponding move will be announced tomorrow. 


Well, I hate to say I told you so but...I told you so.

...why would Bergesen go to Norfolk for a single start and come back to Baltimore? One solid start against AAA hitters is not enough for me to regain confidence. If you're going to use his option under the premise that he needed to work on his sinker and control, I sincerely doubt that he put everything together in one start. At least three would be my preference.

These are the kinds of things that bother me about this team. The losing sucks and the young players' struggles are concerning but ultimately these things can happen with a team in rebuilding mode. It doesn't always happen on schedule.

But wasting an option on a guy for one AAA start? It just doesn't make sense. Now you've used two options on a guy who may eventually be useful to the big league club. Who really thought that Bergey was all straightened out after one start?

Maybe they think Bergesen is no longer a big league pitcher. Maybe. But they did this with Matt Albers too and now he has no options left, probably the only reason he's still on the big league roster. For some reason, the Orioles seem afraid that someone will claim Albers if they try to get him to Norfolk. But they no longer have the luxury of Albers going to AAA to work out his control, a new pitch or something of that ilk.

If this is how cavalier they are about player options, what else are they not paying close attention to?

And that's when I get nervous.

Young Starters, The Bullpen and Perspective

The losing streak is making people mental. Even the beat reporters. This is what Peter Schmuck wrote following Saturday's game:

Though I understand the logic of removing Brian Matusz from tonight's game after he allowed two baserunners in the seventh inning, I've reached the point -- and I bet Matusz agrees with me -- where I believe he deserves a chance to get out of that jam. Once again, a pitcher gets taken out because he hit the magic 100-pitch count, but I thought the idea was to make these guys go farther into the game.

The fact that Matusz walked a guy and gave up a hit doesn't mean that he's not the best guy to pitch to the next batter, especially when the O's bullpen has given Dave Trembley little reason to be confident that the game isn't about to blow up in his face -- as it did again tonight....

It isn't Trembley's fault that the bullpen can't nail down a game, but at some point he's going to have to find out if Matusz is good enough to get out of a late-inning jam. If not tonight, then when?

I'm not picking on Schmuck; others on the Orioles beat expressed similar sentiments if not so stridently. And I would expect this kind of emotional reaction from the fans.

But Pete, calm down.

I'm a big fan of the "one more batter" technique. A guy's approaching his "pitch limit" at the end of the 6th, let him come out for "one more batter" to see what happens. If he gets that guy out, let him face "one more batter". Continue until he gives up a solid hit or walks somebody. It stretches out the pitcher a bit but doesn't put the guy in a position to hurt the team if he's gassed.

Dave Trembley did that on Saturday. He brought Matusz back out for "one more batter" and Matusz walked him. Trembley left him out for "one more batter" again and gave up a hit. He gave Matusz the opportunity to work into the 7th and he didn't quite have it. Going to the bullpen at that point was not an incorrect decision...people just didn't like the outcome.*

But the real issue here is Matusz and his development. I will ALWAYS side with the philosophy that errs on the side of caution when it comes to developing young starters. There's just too much at stake in pushing a potential ace like Matusz too far, too fast.

What would the O's have gotten out of it if they had left Matusz out there for 120 pitches and won the game? Get to 3-15 instead of 2-16? Whoopee. That's worth a gamble? Uh, thanks but no thanks. It's that kind of short term thinking that has plagued the Orioles' player development for more than a decade and has gotten poor results more often than not.

I thought this team could (and may still) make a run at .500 but the reality is that they're not getting the breaks they need. And even that goal is not worth rushing prospects or pushing young arms before they're ready.

Let's not forget that.

*Of course, I don't get pitching Matt Albers two straight games when Jason Berken and Cla Meredith are rotting on the bench. Albers has been fine this season outside of two outings...both came after they tried pitching him on back-to-back days. There are other arms in the bullpen that seem underutilized.

Base Hits: Draft Surprises, Draft Hysteria, The New Aubrey and Cal the Selfish

So late Monday night while everyone was waiting to see if the Nats would sign Stephen Strasburg, the Orioles received a much bigger surprise than the Nats would get. 2nd round pick Mychal Givens signed with the Orioles after all.

This deal looked dead as Dillinger in the days leading up to the signing deadline but it turns out that both sides (especially scouting director Joe Jordan) were just playing hardball.

Joe Jordan on the tough negotiations:

"I don't know if it was any tougher than anything else. It became apparent to us several days ago that this was going to go down to the end. And I had to put a negative spin on things and then try and hopefully create a situation where we could get it done."

I think there was another factor involved. Givens was committed to Oklahoma State and I would imagine that Joe Jordan's been there. I have. Maybe if Givens was committed to Miami or USC
Jordan would not have been so bold in negotiations. But I'm guessing he was counting on the kid taking the money instead of going to play ball out in the middle of nowhere for the next two years.

The Orioles signed 25 of their top 30 picks including 10 of the first 11. In the first 11 picks, Baltimore added:

2 college righty starters
1 high school righty starter
1 college lefty starter
1 high school lefty starter
1 college righty reliever
1 college catcher
1 high school catcher
1 college first baseman
1 high school shortstop

Not a bad haul, especially when you consider that they made some high upside picks in the later rounds.

*****

While we're on the draft, ESPN's Jayson Stark with a pro-owner/anti-player screed about how the draft is broken and needs to be changed. I don't like to pick on Jayson Stark since I used to read his work way back when in Outside Pitch. So I will agree with his assertion that draft picks should be able to be traded. Anything that gives the teams another avenue for building their farm system is fine with me.

I was going to write about Stark's rehashing of all the ideas many have thrown out to revamp the draft in recent years but Shysterball can do that better than I. (Good comments on this post too...)

*****

Baltimore lost an Aubrey but gained one last night when they recalled 1B Michael Aubrey from Norfolk.

*****

Matt Albers was sent down and Kam Mickolio was recalled from Norfolk.

Against all statistical evidence, I have believed (and still do) that Albers is a major league pitcher. He's got good stuff and just needs to learn to control it. It looked like he had turned a corner earlier this season but has fallen back to his old ways. I'm still pulling for the guy but if you can't find the plate, you can't really expect success...

*****

I found this story comparing the selfishness of Brett Favre to the selfishness of Cal Ripken during The Streak. I refuted the argument in the comments and it turned out to be pretty long. Here's my argument in favor of The Streak:

What everyone seems to forget about Ripken's streak is that he was easily the best choice to play shortstop, offensively and defensively, every day he came to the ballpark. In the days before Nomar, A-Rod and Jeter, a bat like Ripken's was invaluable for a shortstop and his glove was top notch, one of the best of his generation at short. I have always failed to see how the Baltimore Orioles would have been better off with Manny Alexander or Tim Hulett in the lineup. Batting slump or not, Ripken was always contributing stellar defense. A run saved is at least worth an RBI.

I have also failed to see how a game or two off would suddenly rejuvenate a "tired" player. If that was truly the case, one or two games aren't going to help. Ripken often had a better second half than first half over the course of his streak. He often left the game in blowouts to get some extra rest. To assume that he would have had better numbers with a couple of extra games off is quite a leap. Again, this argument forgets Cal's defense.

There wasn't much juicy to write about Cal over the course of his Hall of Fame career so writers fell back on two criticisms: 1) Cal's streak is hurting the team and 2) Cal is not a fiery leader and that's why the Orioles lose. Both were simple, silly and designed to sell papers, not provide analysis. Olney and Ken Rosenthal loved these angles.

Peter Handrinos (an unabashed Yankee fan) makes the assertion that Ripken's poor September cost the Orioles the AL East in 1989. What he fails to remember is that the 1989 Orioles were a ragtag team of rookies and journeyman. They were not expected to contend at all and played above their head all year. To blame their collapse on Ripken's streak is ludicrous. Trading away Mike Boddicker and Eddie Murray (for minor leaguers and spare parts) in 1988 doomed the '89 season before it started. Management did not believe in the team and started to rebuild. The Streak had nothing to do with it. Handrinos seems to want to enhance Lou Gehrig's streak by diminishing Cal's.

And Bobby Bonds' criticism is hilarious. Bonds was a hard drinking partier during his playing days and aged badly as a result, possibly ruining a shot at a Hall of Fame caliber career. Ripken was a diligent trainer and kept in top shape during his career. Which player was truly selfish? Which player was letting his team down? Ripken slept at night...you don't need as much rest when you get a good night's sleep.

Yes, Ripken was lucky to escape injury but as Seneca said, "Luck is where preparation meets opportunity." Ripken put himself in the best possible position to play every day. To compare Gehrig's streak and Ripken's in silly anyway; to even come close to Gehrig's streak, let alone break it, at shortstop instead of first base is far more impressive.

There’s certainly some room to wonder how historically important the streak was but to paint Cal as selfish in this regard is way off base, no pun intended.

Base Hits: 6/29/2009

A rambling version of Base Hits on this Monday. A lot to talk about...

Some good news from Birdland this weekend. Firstly, they won the series with the Nationals 2-1.
Secondly, The Warehouse came to terms with 2009 1st round pick Matt Hobgood. Here's the video from The Baltimore Sun's website.




The kid sure says all the right things. I imagine he'll end up in Bluefield with the rest of the high school signees.

Also a couple of nice articles about Orioles players from the national media. Marc Hulett writes about the Oriole acquisition of Cleveland farmhand Michael Aubrey this week for FanGraphs.com:

The 27-year-old former Tulane University start has below-average power for a MLB first baseman, but he can hit for a solid batting average with gap power and he is an above-average fielder. It's a very nice low-risk, medium-reward move by an organization that is getting better by the season.

I know nothing about Michael Aubrey in particular but organizational depth at the corner infield positions is something the O's really need and Aubrey can't hurt.

Also at FanGraphs.com, Dave Cameron takes a look at underrated rookie pitcher Brad Bergesen.
When you can command a sinking fastball and have an off-speed pitch to keep opposite handed hitters at bay, you can be an effective major league starter. Bergesen doesn’t have the same potential as some of the more hyped arms in the Orioles system, but don’t discount his strengths and write him off as a no-stuff guy who belongs in the bullpen. Command, sinker, and change-up - it’s the recipe for a solid back-end starting pitcher.

Bergesen takes a lot of criticism from many analysts due to his anemic strikeout rate in the majors. It's a fair criticism but you also have to consider a couple of other stats too.

Ground Ball percentage among AL starters:

                   GB%
Rick Porcello     56.9%
Roy Halladay      56.3%
Brad Bergesen     54.0%
Felix Hernandez   51.3%
 

If Bergesen can keep inducing grounders at this rate, he's going to hang around awhile. Interesting to see fellow rookie Rick Porcello on this list. Halladay and Hernandez strike out a ton of batters but Porcello doesn't have that kind of stuff. Let's take a closer look.

            GB%   K/9   BB/9   K/BB
Porcello   56.9%  5.03  3.09   1.63
Bergesen   54.0%  4.30  2.04   2.11
 

Odd that Porcello is touted for Rookie of the Year and gets none of the criticism that Bergesen gets. He only strikes out one extra batter per nine and walks an extra batter per nine.

If Bergesen keeps the walks and the ball down, he's going to have some success in this league. If he can edge his strikeout rate closer to 6 K/9, he could be a great one.

Shysterball had a funny post regarding Sindney Ponson's positive test for a stimulant during the WBC.

It includes the killer line, "The only non-natural substances in Ponson's pee-pee are Yoo-Hoo and failure."

Well played, sir.

Speaking of Shysterball, he also has a post up about Matt Wieters at the NBC baseball blog, Circling The Bases questioning the divinity of the Oriole's rookie catcher.

But a funny thing happened on the way to immortality: Wieters has proved human.

Twenty-one games into his big league career he's at .243/.300/.405. Yesterday he dropped a ball at home plate, turning a sure out into a run for the Nationals. Overall, he's thrown out just two of 15 base stealers and has committed three errors in less than a month.

Now, this post is mostly tongue in cheek but I wonder about Dan Connolly:

Sunday, though, it was back to work at the old ballpark. And let’s just say my Saturday was a whole lot better than Orioles catcher Matt Wieters' Sunday.

The phenom went hitless in three at-bats, made his third throwing error in four games and dropped a ball to wipe out what would have been a sure out at the plate.

Afterward, Wieters was typically calm -- saying he’s working on his defense, and he’s not worried about a bad game...

But, here’s the funny thing: The way things are going right now, Wieters (.234 average, two homers, six RBIs) is not the Orioles’ best candidate for Rookie of the Year. Outfielder Nolan Reimold (.286, 9 homers, 20 RBIs) is, with pitcher Brad Bergesen (5-2, 3.76 ERA) also ahead of the backstop.

Look, it's not even June yet. It's certainly fun to dream on Matt Wieters but who really thought he was going to show up and start dominating right away? Wieters dominated High A immediately, struggled for a couple weeks in AA before taking off and was overmatched his first month in Norfolk before beginning to bludgeon opposing pitching.

Based on that, you had to figure for an adjustment time of at least 2 months in the majors. And you have to forget his cumulative numbers at this point; even with his recent struggles he is OPSing .786 the last two weeks. It's in fits and starts...but he's coming.

Besides, Jesus wandered in the desert for 40 days before showing up in Galilee and dropping miracles on everybody? We'll call Wieters first 40 games his "desert period".

Koji Uehara goes on the DL and David Hernandez gets recalled from Norfolk. One has to wonder if Uehara's future on this team is as a reliever. He can't go more than 5 innings, at least not while staying healthy. Of course, the prospect of Hernandez and Jason Berken going up against the lineups in the AL East for the rest of the season is frightening.

Speaking of pitching, Braves 22-year-old rookie pitcher Tommy Hanson continues to dominate all comers. On Sunday, he shut out the Red Sox for six innings and Atlanta eventually won 2-1.

I bring this up to compare and contrast Hanson against Chris Tillman. Both started the season in the International League.

           IP     K   BB  WHIP  ERA
Hanson    66.1   90   17  .859  1.48
Tillman   72.2   75   21 1.142  2.97
 

Not quite as dominant but he's still striking out more than 1 batter per inning. And look at the tiny walk rate of 2.6 per nine. The concern about Tillman was always his control but he seems to be addressing it. How long until he shows up in Baltimore?

Adam Dunn launched a monster shot off of David Hernandez on Sunday, way out on Eutaw Street. At first, I thought he had actually hit the warehouse on the fly but it wasn't even the longest shot in Eutaw Street history. For more, we go to Eutaw Street expert, Roar from 34:

Adam Dunn stroked a 442-foot home run in the second inning of Sunday's 5-3 loss to the Nationals that one-hopped the warehouse. Dunn's blast was the second-longest Eutaw Street home run during game action, missing Henry Rodriguez's 443-foot shot on June 17, 1997, by just a foot.

I never saw the Henry Rodriguez shot but Adam Dunn's shot was an absolute monster. The biggest Eutaw shot I've ever seen..by a lot!

A plug now for Roar From 34:

Roar from 34's Eutaw Street Week

Monday, June 29 through Sunday, July 5 will be "Eutaw Street Week" on Roar from 34. All content posted during the week will have a Eutaw Street theme or connection, including additional entries to The Eutaw Street Chronicles and an interview with Greg Bader, director of communications for the Orioles, about the new 2110 Eutaw Street promotion.

I'm a big fan of The Eutaw Street Chronicles so some good stuff to look forward to this week.

While I'm beating the drum for marginal players (Oscar Salazar...), I've got to say some nice things about RP Matt Albers. He's really been pitching well since his latest callup. A 1.29 ERA over 14 innings for the month of June. If only he could cut down on the walks. A nice 7-8-9 inning combo would be Albers-Johnson-Sherrill (at least as long as Sherrill's here...).

Tough week as the Orioles return to the AL. Boston in for three at the Yard and then another road trip west to take on the Angels. Can they manage .500? Eh...

Our Enormous Bullpen

You know, there's nothing like beating up on the Yankees in New York to lift your spirits. you even get cool headlines on ESPN.com:

O's drill Yanks

I'm going to leave double entendre out of this one...

Mussina get's rocked, Guthrie pitches great and The Truth delivers his message of hope for the Orange and Black.

But that's not what I have come here to talk about today. It's our pitching staff.

We have only two starters in my estimation. Well, one and a half.

The one is Jeremy Guthrie. He is without a doubt our best starting pitcher. The half is Garrett Olson. He may be a good starter in time but he is far from a guarantee at this point.

The rest?

Daniel Cabrera - Only his ability to eat a few innings keeps him in the rotation. I have been fooled for the last time. He should be tried out in relief to salvage him but he is now through as a starter - Potential Setup Man

Brian Burres - I have harped on this before but Burres' future in the majors is in the bullpen. As a starter, he's been a failure. Only injuries to others has kept him in the rotation. - Swingman

Radhames Liz - He is young and was a bit rushed to the majors but even before he got here there were whispers among scouts that he may be better suited for relief. Now those whispers have grown to open conversation. Liz would be a crazy setup guy or maybe a closer but starter may not be where he projects. - Future Closer

You've got to love our bullpen this year and the prospects for next year. Randor Bierd, Jim Johnson, Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker, Dennis Sarfate, a healthy Chris Ray, Brian Burres, Rocky Cherry, Jim Miller, Bob McCrory...there's lots of options. It's deep and dynamic.

But who's going to start in 2009?

Matt Albers - I was really hoping Albers would get his shot but his season ending injury ended that thought. Look for him to compete for a spot in 2009.

Chris Tillman - Tillman is doing very well as a 20 year old in AA Bowie, much more than holding his own. He may not start the season in the rotation but he will be a quick callup in 2009.

Brad Bergesen - The 22 year-old Bergesen has been under the radar but has improved every year he has pitched in the organization. An extreme groundball pitcher, Bergesen is having a better season than Tillman in Bowie and demonstrates fabulous control. He is the type of pitcher who could make a leap to Baltimore next season but they may take it easy on him. ETA mid-2009.

Unfortunately, that's about all I could come up with. Anybody else with any ideas?

(edit: I guess the Orioles see Dennis Sarfate as an option..at least in the short term.)