Oriole Rotation Projected to Improve

It is no secret to the long-suffering Oriole fan that a major factor in all the losing of late has been due to the team trotting out the most wretched pitching staff in the league for most of the past 14 seasons. Indeed, the team's collected hurlers have been unable to post a team ERA that ranked above 13th in the 14 team American League over the past four seasons. Could that be changing in 2012?

In 2011, the team's starters threw a total of 881 innings (dead last among AL teams) with an ERA of 5.39 (also dead last in the AL). SInce most decent starting staffs rack up something in the neighborhood of 1000 innings, I used ZiPS projections to assemble roughly that number of innings amongst the best of the projected starters for Baltimore in 2012. Here they are:

          IP  ERA
Wada     139 4.01
Guthrie  178 4.30
Britton  156 4.85
Chen     125 4.50
Hunter   136 4.96
Arrieta  132 5.13
Matusz   136 5.35
    
Total   1002 4.71

* Wei-Yin Chen does not have an official ZiPS projection. Given that he is considered a better prospect than Tsuyoshi Wada, the low innings count and the 4.50 ERA seems fair. Of course, this guy was supposed to be a better MLB porspect than Koji Uehara when they cam stateside in 2009.

All in all, the projections put the starter's ERA at just over 2/3 a run better than 2011 and projects more innings eaten by the starters than last year too. While I doubt the starters will throw 1000 innings, something around 950 will be a great improvement and will take some pressure off the bullpen. Any bullpen who has to fill the kind of gaps that the Orioles pen has over the past few years is bound to be exposed, no matter how good it is.

There is some chance for improvement here. Brian Matusz could come back from his injury plagued 2011 a much better pitcher. Ditto for Jake Arrieta. Sophomore Zach Britton could take a step forward and 23-year old Chris Tillman could regain his prospect status and contribute in the second half. But as the projections stand, a 4.71 starter ERA would have been no better than 13th in the AL in 2011. Even with significant improvement, this is still a bottom of the league rotation.

But a rotation with Jeremy Guthrie, Britton, Wada and Chen at it's core with Matusz, Arrieta and Tommy Hunter filling in the gaps is still one if the more interesting rotations the Orioles have assembled in recent years, even if it won't be an overly effective one.

Help Me, Oriole Rotation. You're My Only Hope.

An Open Letter to the Oriole Starting Five:

Hi guys. It's closing in on Spring Training and Baltimore fans are full of (cautious, admittedly) optimism and hope. Young prospects are on the rise, national media are picking Baltimore to be much improved and even projection systems like PECOTA have the Birds within the margin of error for a winning season.

But I know the truth. This team only goes as far as you five gentlemen take us. The offense is good but not good enough to outslug the Yanks, Sox or maybe even the Rays. No, we need pitching and we need plenty of it to succeed. The good news is, you won't have big shoes to fill. The starting rotation on Opening Day was Alfredo Simon, Koji Uehara, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton and Jeremy Guthrie. Jeremy, you are the only one who remains.

Each of you have a job to do and the Baltimore faithful beg you to do it well.

Kevin Millwood, we know your best days are probably behind you. While you are the de facto ace, nobody expects you to be anything better than league average. We need you to be Rick Sutcliffe circa 1992. You remember the Red Baron, don't you? He came to Baltimore late in his career to help anchor a staff of young hurlers (Mussina, McDonald, Rhodes) and for the first half of the season pitched like the Sutcliffe of old. OK, not like 1984 Sutcliffe but he went 12-6 over the first half of the season with a 4.13 ERA. He finished the season as a slightly below average pitcher in terms of ERA but for half of 1992 (and then some) he was a hero. He helped lead the Orioles, who had lost 97 games in 1991, to an 89 win season in 1992. More importantly, he bought time for the kid pitchers to develop and stabilized the rotation.

You can be that hero, Kevin. I know former Braves have not fared well in Charm City (Javy Lopez, Leo Mazzone, B.J. Surhoff v2.0) but this is a different era, an era of hope and resurrection. Seize the day and perhaps the Orioles will relax facial hair policies for you too.

Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles claimed off of waivers three seasons ago and you went out of the frying pan and into the fire. 2009 was rough on you. You gave up a league high 35 homers. But that won't happen again because deep down, you are a groundball pitcher with enough of a fastball to strike batters out. Don't give in and keep the ball down in the zone. You finally have help. A veteran to eat innings, kids behind you who will pitch better as the season wears on. You are battle tested, sir. No pitcher in baseball has faced the fearsome lineups you have faced more often over the last three seasons.

We don't need you to try to be the ace anymore. We just need your innings, we just need your experience, we just need your spirit. Just keep the ball in the park and let your defense do the rest.

Brad Bergesen. You were labeled a AAAA pitcher. You were not supposed to have the stuff to pitch in the AL East. You were not supposed to be in the rotation in 2009. But you were and you were the best of the rotation last season.

You're a groundball machine. You walk no one. Nobody's getting a cheap hit off of you. According to The Bill James Handbook, you might just be the best fielding pitcher in the American League. You have the best chance of any of the starters to hit 200 innings pitched like Guthrie did last year. You're a fan favorite already and everyone is pulling for you to succeed. Like it or not, you're the underdog and everyone loves the underdog. Just keep it up. Please.

Brian Matusz, I have not had so much fun watching a guy pitch since Mike Mussina donned the orange & black. You have four pitches and you command them all extremely well. So on any count, you are likely to throw any of them. It reminds me of Mussina throwing his knuckle-curve on a 3-2 count, buckling the batter's knees and ringing up the K. You are that kind of talent. I can see you tying the hitters up in knots, mentally and physically with each successive at bat.

You are to inherit the "ace" tag for Baltimore and become the best Baltimore pitcher since the aforementioned Mussina. The rotation is relying more on your success than on any other individual pitcher. But the scouts love you and I think you may be due for a great leap forward in 2010.

Chris Tillman, it was not pretty during your 12 major league starts in 2009. A 5.40 ERA and lots of walks. But at the age of 21, you had nothing left to prove in the minors. You destroyed the International League posting a 2.70 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 96 innings for AAA Norfolk. It was your time. It is your time.

But just relax. No one is expecting you to be anything more than the 5th best starter for the Orioles in 2010. But I saw you in AAA. Your fastball moved and you mixed you pitches well. In Baltimore, you overthrew and that fastball flattened out. No need to throw through a brick wall. The baseball is an egg. Hold it like and egg. And by the end of the season, you may just start to show flashes of the ace potential you brought with you from the Seattle organization.

So don't believe the hype. If the Orioles are to surprise the league this season, it won't be because they signed Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins, it will be because the five of you.

Now let's go O's!

Base Hits: 6/12/2009

I am taking down my little "Value Over Daniel Cabrera" widget from the left hand side of the blog. The final results in terms of ERA:

Daniel Cabrera 2008 - 5.25
Daniel Cabrera 2009 - 5.85
Adam Eaton - 8.56
Mark Hendrickson - 5.53
Alfredo Simon - 9.95
Rich Hill - 5.24
Koji Uehara - 4.37

The whole point of the exercise was to decipher what The Warehouse was thinking in regards to the rotation this year. It seemed they were looking for stiffs to eat innings and buy time for the kids in the minors. But then they let go a "proven stiff" in Daniel Cabrera. Cabrera had proven that he was just that kind of pitcher and had proven it in the AL East. It was kind of ironic that they let Cabrera go just at the time he had proven he was forever to be mediocrity but an innings eater. Cabrera was, for the first time in his career, a perfect fit for the Baltimore Orioles and they cut him loose!

Now, you can certainly disagree with me about Cabrera in specific but you have to admit that nobody they brought in has done a better job that D-Cab, save for Koji Uehara. Certainly the trio of stiffs that were in the rotation on Opening Day (Hendrickson, Eaton, Simon) were a downgrade.

I don't have many criticisms of Andy MacPhail so far but his assemblage (or lack thereof) of a starting rotation for the 2009 Orioles has been a glaring and abject failure.

Anyway, it's hardly fair to compare the rotation anymore now that some kids are starting to fill those roles. I've made my argument.

*****

Want the human interest stories behind the 2009 Oriole draftees? Matt at Roar From 34 has compiled them all.

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I'm not sure that I've said it before (and he certainly doesn't need the traffic from me!) but the Matt Wieters Facts site (put together by Frost King) is still quite entertaining to me.

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I love me some Old Bay. And I love me some Orioles.

I don't reprint press releases very often but if I was in Baltimore on Saturday, I would be at Camden Yards for this promotion:

OLD BAY SPICES UP CAMDEN YARDS

The Orioles and Charm City Cakes help celebrate the 70th BIRTHDAY of a Baltimore icon.

What:

Cake creator extraordinaire Duff Goldman of Baltimore’s Charm City Cakes will help celebrate the 70th birthday of Baltimore’s own OLD BAY Seasoning prior to the Orioles-Braves game with the unveiling of a larger-than-life cake that replicates the iconic yellow and blue can with the red lid. Duff will also be throwing out the first pitch and the first 10,000 attendees age 15 and over will receive an OLD BAY mallet

When: Saturday, June 13th
Presentation begins at 6:30pm

Where: Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves Game
Camden Yards


Background:

For 70 years, this distinctive blend of twelve herbs and spices has been a time-honored taste of summer. Just as the recipe hasn’t changed, neither has the iconic yellow and blue can. Once only enjoyed by a lucky few along the Chesapeake Bay, OLD BAY® Seasoning has gained fans all across the country. Best known as THE seasoning for shrimp, salmon, crab and other seafood dishes, these days, OLD BAY is used to flavor hamburgers, chicken, pizza, pasta, vegetable dishes and more. For information visit www.oldbay.com

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I like Melvin Mora. I have enjoyed watching him through out his Oriole career. But he's done. The Orioles should not pick up his option for the 2010 season. I'll probably harp on that fact as the season goes on but Mora is doing a pretty good job of sealing that fate himself.

Mora is OPSing .653 which puts his bat within shouting distance of Cesar Izturis (.620) and even Felix Pie (.595). But Mora is no longer a great glove or a kid. It's probably going to get worse. Month by month, his OPS has dropped from .940 in April (over 7 games) to .647 in May and a meager .417 in June.

He'll probably play out the year since the Orioles don't have many internal options but 2009 should be his Oriole swansong.

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Some sage words form Rick Dempsey about Jeremy Guthrie:

Usually it is pretty easy for me to watch a pitcher and see what he is doing right or wrong. A lot of times all you have to do is watch the flight and spin of the ball, and it can tell you exactly what you want to know....

From what I've seen, its not just one thing. There's a lot going on right now that nobody can figure out except Jeremy.

Obviously, I don't see every pitch of every game like Rick does (and based on the copious notes and score keeping I saw him taking during the MASN Oriole Blogger Night last month, he's certainly paying close attention) but I was working on a post about Jeremy Guthrie and trying to figure out why he was giving up so many homers this year. After pouring over Pitch F/X data, pitch types, pitch sequence, the counts , his velocity, the types of hitters he's facing...everything I could think of. But there's no common denominator! They're launching home runs off of every kind of pitch he throw without discrimination. It doesn't happen when he's behind in the count. He velocity and control (at least, his walk rates and amount of strikes he throws) are consistent with his first two seasons.

So I've got to go with Rick on this one. It not just one thing...but you would like to think Guthrie can solve it sooner than later.

*****

It's been a rough week for the Orioles but the Braves have been having trouble scoring runs too. Could this weekend be the remedy for the Baltimore win column?

Let's go O's!

Simon Makes the Rotation?

Alfredo Simon and his ERA:

2005 AA Norwich - 91.1 IP, 5.03 ERA
2006 A+ San Jose - 36.1 IP, 6.44 ERA
2006 AAA Fresno - 52.0 IP, 6.75 ERA
2007 AAA OK. City - 119 IP, 6.43 ERA
2008 AAA Norfolk - 4.2 IP, 5.79 ERA
2008 MLB Orioles - 13 IP, 6.23 ERA

I don't know if Hayden Penn will be claimed off of waivers. I don't know if he will ever be a decent major league pitcher. But I can guarantee you that Alfredo Simon won't outperform him in 2009.

Even CHONE (optimisitically) projects Simon at a 5.45 ERA. It puts Penn at a 5.14 ERA.

I'm predicting an ERA north of 5.75 for Simon this year. Not really sure that this is worth potentially kicking Penn to the curb for.

Andy, Dave: You really didn't need Daniel Cabrera for one more year?

Forget Who Will Make the Rotation...Who Should?

I think I've (unsuccessfully) taken a few guesses about who would be in the final rotation. But who actually should be in the Opening Day rotation? Glad you asked...

Raise your hand if you honestly believe the Orioles can win this season? Yeah , me neither. So unlike most teams, this is not just a matter of picking pitchers who give the team the best chance to win. It goes deeper than that.

It should be three levels of criteria:

1) Pitchers who give you team the best chance to win.
2) Pitchers with upside who may or may not be ready for the majors but are out of minor league options.
3) Pitcher who can be used as cannon fodder, eating some innings for a couple months while better options can be found without resorting to rushing young arms to the majors.

The team has basically exhausted the first piece of criteria with Jeremy Guthrie and Koji Uehara. These two can reasonable be expected to go out and compete on a regular basis.

Now there are five pitchers remaining for the three spots left in the rotation: Hayden Penn, Brian Bass, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton and Alfredo Simon.

Hayden Penn is covered with the second rule. He is only 24 but due to some mismanagement under previous regimes, he is out of minor league options. Penn was due to be called up a couple times over the last two seasons but untimely illness or injury spoiled those opportunities. Penn would be claimed if they tried to get him through waivers and quite frankly he hasn't pitched any worse than anybody else this spring. Stick him in as the number 5 pitcher and see if he can work it out. When Rich Hill comes back, move him to the bullpen. This guy still has value, it would be a shame to let him go before we've really given him a shot.

Now come the sacrificial lambs. The biggest mistake Andy MacPhail made this offseason was not offering Daniel Cabrera arbitration. He would've given the team more than 170 innings and probably would have been better than any of the guys we have in camp.

So in lieu of Cabrera, Adam Eaton and Mark Hendrickson fit the bill. These guys have the best shot at remaining effective enough in the rotation that they will last 2 months or more on the front lines. If they can hang in there, Rich Hill may return and be effective, Brad Bergesen and\or David Hernandez may tear up AAA and earn a promotion...these guys are there to buy the club some time until better options are ready. I think they can do it, at least as well as Garrett Olson and Radhames Liz did last season.

Brian Bass is a Brian Burress type, best when utilized as a swingman out of the bullpen and that's a best case scenario.

Quick quiz: When was the last time Alfredo Simon posted an ERA less than 6.00 at any level of professional baseball? That was in AA in 2005 when he posted a 5.03 ERA. I've refrained from bashing the guy since I've said repeatedly that the rotation's theme for 2009 should be "We take anybody." But this guy doesn't belong on anyone's radar for a major league job, not even the Orioles. He hasn't even had fluky Luis Hernandez success on any level. Cut him.

So the starting rotation for the Baltimore Orioles on April 6th should be:

Guthrie
Uehara
Eaton
Hendrickson
Penn

Anything else at this point wouldn't make a lot of sense.

Base Hits: 3/25/2009

Shocked and saddened to learn of the untimely death of John Brattain whose work I enjoyed often over at The Hardball Times. Brattain was a diehard Blue Jays fan and I had the pleasure of e-mailing back and forth with him on occasion about AL East baseball. He was always funny, pleasant and opinionated.

My deepest sympathies to his family and friends. He will be missed.

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According to Roch Kubatko, David Pauley is out of the running for a spot in the rotation and Dave Trembley also seems pretty sure that Chris Waters will not make the rotation either. By my estimation, that leaves Brian Bass, Adam Eaton, Hayden Penn, Danys Baez, Alfredo Simon and Mark Hendrickson in competition for the last three rotation spots with Rich Hill waiting on the DL.

If I made a guess, I'd figure Hendrickson, Baez and Eaton make up the rotation on Opening Day.

(edit: Dave Trembley has eliminated Baez from the competition since I wrote this. Nice guess!)

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Hall of Famer George Kell has passed away at the age of 86. Kell finished up his career in Baltimore and played on the first modern Oriole team to finish at .500 or better in 1957.

Kell manned third base but slowly gave way as the season wore on to a 20-year old defensive wizard named Brooks Robinson...

*****

Maryland native Harold Baines has been elected to the Baltimore Orioles Hall of Fame.

It seemed like Baines always came through with the big hit when nobody else on the team was hitting. One of my favorites and clearly the best DH in Oriole history.

O's Sign Uehara, Close to Finalizing Deal

The Baltimore Sun is reporting that the Orioles have agreed to terms with Japanese pitcher Koji Uehara.

Baltimore's rotation is a glaring weakness and the signing helps in two respects.

1) We need competent pitching of all kinds.

2) It gives an early return on the Orioles casting a wider net overseas when searching for talent.

So regardless of how this thing works out, it's a good development for the short and long term.

I know nothing about Uehara so I'll rely on ESPN's Keith Law:

Uehara has, of course, incredible control, and misses bats with a good forkball. It's tough to say how well that pitch will translate here, as American hitters might struggle with a pitch they rarely see, but may also learn to lay off a pitch that often finishes out of the zone. He mixes up his fastball between two-seamers and cutters, but neither pitch has any sink, so while he commands everything to the corners, he's very prone to the home run when he gets too much of the plate.

In an ideal environment -- National League, non-hitters' park -- he could be a midrotation innings-eater because he'll allow so few baserunners. In the American League, he'd be more of a fourth starter, but would have to have some luck keeping the ball in the park to keep his ERA under 4.00.

Two comments: Any pitcher's ideal environment is a National League pitcher's park and if he turns out to be 4th starter caliber, that's still an improvement over what we have right now. We let our other 4th starter caliber pitcher walk and sign with the Nationals.

From NPB Tracker, a blog that follows Japanese baseball:

I actually think that Uehara will be susceptible to baserunners because he’ll be around the plate so much. More troubling is that the HR ball was unquestionably his weakness in Japan, and he’s going to the most HR-friendly park in MLB. On the other hand, he’ll have two good outfielders behind him in Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, which suit his flyball tendencies.

Well, yeah, Camden Yards was the most homerun friendly park in baseball last year but looking at a three year average (usually a better indicator) OPACY is right around 5th or 6th in the majors for giving up homeruns. I'm not downplaying the HR factor but it tends to be overstated at times. Oriole Park is not Wrigley Field or Coors Field, two parks who consistently rank in the top two of HR rates.

And yes, Adam Jones and Nick Markakis help. But Luke Scott doesn't!

I don't have a lot to go on as far as predicting how much better he would be than Daniel Cabrera, but even if he can't keep his ERA under 4.00, even if he has a league average ERA (4.53 last year) I'll take that any day for the reported $5 million a year. I'm going to say that he is a good bet to exceed Daniel Cabrera's production and that alone makes him a fair improvement at a good price.

An encouraging move by The Warehouse. I can't wait to see how it works out.

Value Over Daniel Cabrera: Mark Hendrickson

I am now on the record that I don't believe Daniel Cabrera will ever be an above-average major league pitcher. What you see now is probably what you're going to get at this point in Daniel's career.

All that said, by any measure, he was still the second best Oriole pitcher of 2008. Forget how disappointing he was as a talent, there is nobody on the current roster who can be expected to replace his 180 innings of 5.25 ERA in 2009. Given that he could have been retained for about $3-4 million for next season, four pitchers (outside of Jeremy Guthrie) in the Oriole rotation needs to surpass the (admittedly) low benchmark of Daniel Cabrera's 2008 season to warrant letting Cabrera go.

The first candidate is 35-year old lefty Mark Hendrickson. The Orioles are projecting him as a swingman/long reliever but as of today, he would fill a position in the starting rotation. Even though I think the Oriole rotation's slogan for 2009 should be "We Take Anybody", Hendrickson is really pushing the concept.

Baseball-Reference.com has a neat tool to normalize a pitcher's stats for league average run support and neutral park factors (for a more detailed look at how the stats are "neutralized", see this explanation).

Mark Hendrickson's stats for 2008, pitching in the National League for the Florida Marlins:

              W   L   IP    BB   SO   ERA   WHIP
Hendrickson   7   8  133.7  48   81   5.45  1.46

Now, Hendrickson's stats, normalized for pitching in the American League, in Camden Yards:

                             W   L    IP    BB   SO   ERA   WHIP
Hendrickson (Adjusted 2008)  5   9  130.7   51   79   6.34  1.60

Just as a reminder, Daniel Cabrera's 2008 stats:

                W   L    IP    BB   SO   ERA   WHIP
Cabrera 2008    8  10   180.0  90   95   5.25  1.61

Mark Hendrickson is NOT a good bet to exceed even Daniel Cabrera's meager output of 2008.

Still more on this later...

Our Enormous Bullpen

You know, there's nothing like beating up on the Yankees in New York to lift your spirits. you even get cool headlines on ESPN.com:

O's drill Yanks

I'm going to leave double entendre out of this one...

Mussina get's rocked, Guthrie pitches great and The Truth delivers his message of hope for the Orange and Black.

But that's not what I have come here to talk about today. It's our pitching staff.

We have only two starters in my estimation. Well, one and a half.

The one is Jeremy Guthrie. He is without a doubt our best starting pitcher. The half is Garrett Olson. He may be a good starter in time but he is far from a guarantee at this point.

The rest?

Daniel Cabrera - Only his ability to eat a few innings keeps him in the rotation. I have been fooled for the last time. He should be tried out in relief to salvage him but he is now through as a starter - Potential Setup Man

Brian Burres - I have harped on this before but Burres' future in the majors is in the bullpen. As a starter, he's been a failure. Only injuries to others has kept him in the rotation. - Swingman

Radhames Liz - He is young and was a bit rushed to the majors but even before he got here there were whispers among scouts that he may be better suited for relief. Now those whispers have grown to open conversation. Liz would be a crazy setup guy or maybe a closer but starter may not be where he projects. - Future Closer

You've got to love our bullpen this year and the prospects for next year. Randor Bierd, Jim Johnson, Chad Bradford, Jamie Walker, Dennis Sarfate, a healthy Chris Ray, Brian Burres, Rocky Cherry, Jim Miller, Bob McCrory...there's lots of options. It's deep and dynamic.

But who's going to start in 2009?

Matt Albers - I was really hoping Albers would get his shot but his season ending injury ended that thought. Look for him to compete for a spot in 2009.

Chris Tillman - Tillman is doing very well as a 20 year old in AA Bowie, much more than holding his own. He may not start the season in the rotation but he will be a quick callup in 2009.

Brad Bergesen - The 22 year-old Bergesen has been under the radar but has improved every year he has pitched in the organization. An extreme groundball pitcher, Bergesen is having a better season than Tillman in Bowie and demonstrates fabulous control. He is the type of pitcher who could make a leap to Baltimore next season but they may take it easy on him. ETA mid-2009.

Unfortunately, that's about all I could come up with. Anybody else with any ideas?

(edit: I guess the Orioles see Dennis Sarfate as an option..at least in the short term.)