2012 Oriole Win Predictions

It's that time again. Today, I will try to predict the Oriole win total using estimated playing time, projections and the WAR spreadsheet from Beyond the Boxscore.

I used Sky Kalkman's updated WAR Spreadsheet for the calculations and based on Matt Swartz's article on testing projections systems at Fangraphs.com, I used a combination of ZiPS and Oliver projections for the hitters and Steamer FIP projections for the pitchers.

I am assuming a 12 man pitching staff and based on that assumption, here are the 13 position players I have breaking camp:

C Matt Wieters
1B Chris Davis
2B Robert Andino
SS JJ Hardy
3B Mark Reynolds
RF Nick Markakis
CF Adam Jones
LF Nolan Reimold
IF/DH Wilson Betemit
OF Endy Chavez
IF Matt Antonelli
IF Ryan Flaherty
C Taylor Teagarden

I do not expect Brian Roberts to break camp with the rest of the team and I don't really expect him to contribute much to the Orioles going forward. That will allow the new corp of infielders to head north with the club. Nick Markakis may still start the season on the DL allowing Jai Miller a bit of playing time early.

The pitching situation is cloudier due to the current injuries, a few pitchers coming back from injury and sorting out all the options (or lack thereof) of relievers in camp. I did the best I could with the composition of the pitching staff and you could certainly trade out a Darren O'Day for a Kevin Gregg and I wouldn't have an argument with that. But the bullpen roster, outside of Jim Johnson and Matt Lindstrom, is anybody's guess and quite frankly there probably won't be a hige difference in performance. Troy Patton, for instance, is probably more wishful thinking on my part although I think he could be a very good bullpen arm. He is just as likely to be waived or traded as he is to make the team. Also wishful thinking is the departure via trade or waivers of Kevin Gregg. But I digress.

So, here it is:





A few thoughts and explanations...

- Even without the additions of big name (but old and ineffective) veterans this offseason, the projections only have the team winning 5 fewer games. (Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee didn't even sniff their 2011 projections...)

- Oliver loves Chris Davis. It projected a .803 OPS for 2012. ZiPS hates Chris Davis. It projects a .739 OPS. It was the biggest discrepency on the team. I split the difference. Anything approching the Oliver projection for Davis would be really nice for the offense.

- I have probably overestimated the total team defense. I may have overestimated the impact of plus defenders and not taken enough away from some suspect defenders. Outside of Matt Wieters and JJ Hardy, there are no defensive standouts on the team (not even Adam Jones or Nick Markakis, Gold Gloves notwithstanding). Most of the team ranges from solid to awful. That said, I think Wieters' combination of stellar defense and a solid to great bat will make him the most valuable member of the team.

- You can see the impact that losing an above average starter that can throw 200 innings can have on a rotation. All those innings are going to have to be cobbled together around Jason Hammel, the only member of the starting staff that has thrown more than 170 innings in an MLB season.

- The NPB imports of Wei Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada do not have Steamer projections. Wada's is a ZiPS projection and Chen is just a wild guess. With Wada's injury and the general difficulty of projecting NPB pitchers, these innings and ERA projections are probably the best possible scenarios.

- Speaking of best possible scenarios, remember when we were all excited about the young Oriole arms? Now, according to projecitons, getting 130 innings of 4.69 ERA from Jake Arrieta seems to be the best performance we can expect from this group. (And given he is coming back from elbow surgery, that may be in question too.) With Zach Britton's shoulder soreness, Brian Matusz's big step back in 2011 and Chris Tillman's general ineffectiveness, it's hard to count on any of them to do big things in 2012.

- Mark Reynolds should, once again, be the best offensive player on the team. Take that how you will.

All of this breaks down to about 74 wins and, unlike the last couple of years, I don't see much chance of the Orioles exceeding that win total. In fact, I think this may be the best case scenario. OK, we could have a few position players take big steps forward (Jones, Wieters, Davis and Reimold) and a couple of the young pitchers could develop into reliable starters (Matusz, Britton and Arrieta) and the NPB imports could be better than advertised and the Orioles field a decent lineup and a solid pitching staff. But if you have been watching the O's over the past few seasons, you know how unlikely all these players hitting their ceilings in the same season seems.

Given that my predicitons in previous years have been a bit too optimistic, I think Baltimore will struggle to reach 70 wins in 2012. If they fail, it will be the 6th straight season that they have failed to reach the 70 win mark. I'll try to look for silver linings to this dark cloud in the coming weeks.

This Week in Chat: 2/13/2011

Where we distill all the week's baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

Fangraphs After Dark Chat

9:27 Comment From SeanP
Dan Duquette said that the Orioles couldn't get any team to trade prospects for Jeremy Guthrie. Does that change the outlook of the Guthrie-for-Hammel/Lindstrom trade?

9:27 Chris Cwik:
Not really. At least get something useful for Guthrie. The O's didn't even cut salary in the deal. What was the point?

9:28 Paul Swydan:
No. He should have waited until the deadline. The stories about the O's and Guthrie clashing over arb negotiations brought back memories of the Duke and John Valentin bickering in the media about what doctor should perform his knee surgery.

9:28 Zach Sanders:
I never thought they'd get a prospect, so no, not for me. I liked it for the Os, actually. Hammel will never meet his FIP numbers or stuff, but Lindstrom is more than useful.

9:40 Comment From Fattinton_Bear
Does Jeremy Guthrie going to COL make him have fantasy value since he'll be in an easier division and an easier league?

9:40 Chris Cwik:
I'm not a big Guthrie fan. So, no.

9:40 Zach Sanders:
I have him getting a small boost, but it's pretty much the same.

9:41 Paul Swydan:
I don't think so. I don't think any Rockies starting pitcher is really worth drafting this year.


Dave Cameron, Fangraphs

12:19 Comment From Charles
Convince me that Dan Duquette isn't the absolute worst general manager in the game right now

12:19
Ned Colletti.


Dave Schoenfield, ESPN

Austin (A's fan in NYC)
Dave,Based on everything from current on-field talent to front-office aptitude, ownership and ballpark situations, division, and payroll considerations, how would you rank the teams facing the longest roads to serious contention? I'm thinking 1 Baltimore (farthest from contention); 2 Houston; 3 Mets; 4 Pittsburgh; fifth?Mariners? I?m hoping not my A?s, but they're probably part of the conversation.

David Schoenfield (1:05 PM)
I think everyone agrees the Astros have the least talent in the organization (from majors down to the minors). But they do at least play in the NL Central, so they may be able to rebuild in 3-4 years. Considering their division, I agree with you: Orioles are probably No. 1 on this list, even though they have some talent in the bigs and on the farm. I'd probably rank the A's "ahead" of the Mariners. Ballpark situation just too big of a negative.

Confused (Baltimore)
Dan Duquette, misunderstood genius or delusional? He seems to be tilting at windmills to me. What am I missing?

David Schoenfield (1:24 PM)
Yeah, I'm not quite sure what the Guthrie trade was all about. I know he saves money with Hammel and he gets two years of team control with Hammel and Lindstrom, but seems Guthrie could have been flipped for a good prospect with SIX years of team control. Not a terrible trade, but not one that really accomplishes anything for Baltimore.

John (Baltimore)
Does Matusz turn it around this year or is he a bust?

David Schoenfield (1:34 PM)
No idea. I know he's said his velocity was down after returning, but I still wonder if he was pitching through an injury. Or maybe he just went through what Halladay did as a young pitcher. Halladay had to go all the way back to Class A to rediscover his mechanics.

Jason (St Louis)
How about Adam Jones for Shelby Miller, Zack Cox and Jon Jay? Who says no?

David Schoenfield (1:43 PM)
I think the Cardinals do. I'm on record as thinking Jones is overrated. Jay is OK and Miller's potential isn't worth the upgrade from Jay to Jones.


Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

Paul (DC):
Who are the likely top contenders to bid for Yoennis Cespedes' services?

Kevin Goldstein:
Cubs, Marlins, Orioles, White Sox, Blue Jays, Rangers, mystery team.

john m (ct):
Any chance Brian Matusz regains his stuff?

Kevin Goldstein:
There is obviously SOME chance, it's counting on it that is the risky part.


Keith Law, ESPN

bubble boy (the bubble)
If Bundy were 6'4 would he be top 5? I know, if if were a skiff we'd all be sailing...

Klaw (1:20 PM)
Best line I heard on him was from a senior FO guy who said something close to this: "If Dylan Bundy was 6'4" he'd be in an Opening Day rotation."

Joe (Pittsburgh)
In hindsight, should the pirates regret choosing Taillon over Machado

Klaw (1:21 PM)
That seems awfully strong, and awfully quick. Even if they get the lesser player, Taillon's not a stiff.

Snakes (Philly)
The Orioles Guthrie to Colorado trade is... strange at best. What were they thinking in your opinion? Oh- and they are likely to sign Manny Ramirez too!!

Klaw (1:46 PM)
At best, it's a lateral move. And it's probably a small step back.

Kevin (MD)
O's fan here. Talk me off my ledge and give me hope for the future Keith! Anything to look forward to other than Bundy or Machado?

Klaw (2:18 PM)
Schoop, Bridwell, Delmonico. It's not Houston, where there's just very little talent. But you've got the worst owner in the game, and a GM operating out of a playbook so old it's written on papyrus.

Jeb (Chicago)
Thoughts regarding KBA banning Baltimore because of Kim Seong-min? Did Baltimore really mess up or is this not a big deal?

Klaw (2:20 PM)
They messed up. MLB values its relationships with KBO and NPB, so I imagine they're really unhappy. All this for a non-prospect, too.

Obscure Oriole Transaction Spotlight: Chris Tremblay

Who says the Orioles haven't made any moves?

Name: Chris Tremblay
Position: 2B
Throws: R
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 185
Age: 25

Tremblay was born in Montreal and was drafted out of Kent State by he Padres in the 19th round of the 2009 draft.

Up to this point he has been a light-hitting utility type (catcher, centerfielder and pitcher were the only spots he did not play in the Padre system) and with his .591 minor league career OPS and with only 78 games played at high-A by age 24, his glove had better be really good.

What else do we know about Mr. Temblay? He has a really gnarly tattoo on his shoulder and he writes a blog, not about baseball, but about literature and writing. He does have an entry about getting released by the Padres but generally, this is not a baseball blog.

Look for him in Frederick this season.

Orioles Trade Jeremy Guthrie to the Rockies

The Orioles have traded workhorse starter Jeremy Guthrie to the Rockies for SP Jason Hammel and RP Matt Lindstrom.

While I am sad to see Guthrie go, he was likely gone at the end of the season anyway and would have commanded somewhere around $9 million in salary through arbitration this season. Like the Luke Scott situation, I'm not sure why Guthrie was still on the team and believe he probably could have brought back more value at the trading deadlines in 2011 or 2010. But unlike Scott, the O's were able to get something of value back for Guthrie. (My Guthrie love letter will come later...)

Jason Hammel, like Guthrie, has always been a bit underrated. Rightly or wrongly, I have always thought they were similar pitchers. Some career numbers for both:

          AGE    G    K/9   BB/9   K/BB   HR/9    GB%   ERA    FIP  xFIP   WHIP
Guthrie    33  177   5.52   2.68   2.06   1.22   40.6  4.19   4.61  4.68   1.29
Hammell    29  169   6.25   3.11   2.01   1.06   45.1  4.99   4.38  4.27   1.47

Hammel walks a few more batters but also strikes out a few more, keeps the ball in the park slightly better and gets a fair bit more ground balls than Guthrie. His peripherals are better. But he's been the anti-Guthrie in terms of outperforming his peripherals; while Guthrie tends to outperform his FIP and xFIP, Hammel has tended to underperform his peripherals. But they both have fastballs that sit in the 92-93 range and fill out hte repertoire with sliders and changeups.

Hammel had a down year in 2011 and I guess the Orioles are looking for a rebound season from him. If he does, he is likely to replace Guthrie's production in 2012 and with a an extra year of arbitration left, Hammel could be flipped to another club or extended for a reasonable price. He is four years younger than Guthrie and is similar enough to him that it makes sense to take a flier on Hammel.

Matt Lindstrom is...an averagish reliever? He gets a lot of ground balls but has had mixed success over his career. He'll make $3.6 million in 2012 which seems like a lot for a reliever of his caliber. But he's cheaper than Kevin Gregg and can't be any worse.

As much as I liked Guthrie as a fan, the Orioles got decent value in return for a league average 33-year old fly ball pitcher. They got a younger pitcher with an extra year of control. It's fine. The only thing the O's did wrong here was to hold on to Guthrie a season too long if they wanted to get prospects in a deal.

Oriole Rotation Projected to Improve

It is no secret to the long-suffering Oriole fan that a major factor in all the losing of late has been due to the team trotting out the most wretched pitching staff in the league for most of the past 14 seasons. Indeed, the team's collected hurlers have been unable to post a team ERA that ranked above 13th in the 14 team American League over the past four seasons. Could that be changing in 2012?

In 2011, the team's starters threw a total of 881 innings (dead last among AL teams) with an ERA of 5.39 (also dead last in the AL). SInce most decent starting staffs rack up something in the neighborhood of 1000 innings, I used ZiPS projections to assemble roughly that number of innings amongst the best of the projected starters for Baltimore in 2012. Here they are:

          IP  ERA
Wada     139 4.01
Guthrie  178 4.30
Britton  156 4.85
Chen     125 4.50
Hunter   136 4.96
Arrieta  132 5.13
Matusz   136 5.35
    
Total   1002 4.71

* Wei-Yin Chen does not have an official ZiPS projection. Given that he is considered a better prospect than Tsuyoshi Wada, the low innings count and the 4.50 ERA seems fair. Of course, this guy was supposed to be a better MLB porspect than Koji Uehara when they cam stateside in 2009.

All in all, the projections put the starter's ERA at just over 2/3 a run better than 2011 and projects more innings eaten by the starters than last year too. While I doubt the starters will throw 1000 innings, something around 950 will be a great improvement and will take some pressure off the bullpen. Any bullpen who has to fill the kind of gaps that the Orioles pen has over the past few years is bound to be exposed, no matter how good it is.

There is some chance for improvement here. Brian Matusz could come back from his injury plagued 2011 a much better pitcher. Ditto for Jake Arrieta. Sophomore Zach Britton could take a step forward and 23-year old Chris Tillman could regain his prospect status and contribute in the second half. But as the projections stand, a 4.71 starter ERA would have been no better than 13th in the AL in 2011. Even with significant improvement, this is still a bottom of the league rotation.

But a rotation with Jeremy Guthrie, Britton, Wada and Chen at it's core with Matusz, Arrieta and Tommy Hunter filling in the gaps is still one if the more interesting rotations the Orioles have assembled in recent years, even if it won't be an overly effective one.

The Wisdom of Signing Wilson

With the signing of Wilson Betemit, the Orioles seem to have found their DH for 2012.

That is a statement made with tongue firmly in cheek but it's not as crazy as you might think. To beat the rotting horse's corpse that I love so well:

                       AVG   OBP   SLG   OPS   G   WAR   
2009-2011 Betemit     .284  .354  .467  .821  201  1.5
2009-2011 Guerrero    .295  .332  .458  .790  397  2.5

The signing of Vladimir Guerrero at this time last year was hailed as filling a gaping hole at DH for the O's. Betemit will surely do no worse.

Especially if he's deployed in the correct way. If Betemit is the DH against righties (.817 career OPS against RHP) and, say, Mark Reynolds gets the bulk of DH starts against lefties (.882 career OPS against LHP) with scattered DH at bats for Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold and others, that doesn't seem to be a bad solution to improve production from that spot in the lineup.

Betemit is billed as a utility infielder but honestly, he's never been a great fielder. Imagine a tick or two below Ty Wigginton and you'll get an idea of what he will look like in the field this season. While he will get some starts int he field, the Orioles will be wise to have him serve primarily as a DH and a pinch hitter. (And as unorthodox as that may sound, I believe that is exactly the plan for him.)

Nor does Betemit create any kind of roster crowding or crisis. The projected members of the roster, position players only, assuming a 12-man pitching staff.

C
Matt Wieters 
Taylor Teagarden

IF
Chris Davis
J.J. Hardy
Mark Reynolds
Robert Andino
Matt Antonelli
Ryan Flaherty
Wilson Betemit

OF
Endy Chavez
Nolan Reimold
Adam Jones
Nick Markakis

This assumes that Flaherty makes the roster at all (no guarantee of that) and I am certainly not counting on Brian Roberts playing for Baltimore in 2012. If Flaherty does not remain with the MLB club, there would be room for Ryan Adams or a resurrected Roberts. This move may signal that a trade is in the works but I hardly think it's necessary based on the current construction of the club.

And considering the price Betemit signed for ($3.25M for 2 years), the 30-year old is virtually a slam dunk to be a good return on investment. (OK, the 2-year commitment was a little weird...) But this signing, if he is to be used the way I expect, makes way more sense and gives the team way more flexibility than the Guerrero and Derrek Lee signings of last offseason.

Andy MacPhail's Christmas Gift to Baltimore

The Orioles have plenty of holes to fill this offseason and seemingly every offseason. But there is one critical position that they do not have to fill. Shortstop.

You could make the argument that the rarest commodity in the free agent market this season is a shortstop who can hit and field his position well. (OK, good all-around catchers and starting pitching is probably a rarer commodity.) But thanks to the dealings of former team president Andy MacPhail over the last year, the O's don't have to overpay for that talent now.

Last December, MacPhail dealt a couple of minor league relievers to the Twins for SS J.J. Hardy. For a couple of spare parts, Hardy turned out to be a low-cost, low-risk gamble that paid off big for the O's. Hardy played a good defensive shortstop, posted an .801 OPS and had 57 extra base hits. It was a performance from a Baltimore shortstop that we haven't seen since the early days of the Miguel Tejada era.

Knowing how tight the shortstop market would be after the season, MacPhail and the Orioles signed Hardy to a 3-year extension for a total contract of $22.5M. Given Hardy's age and skillset the contract stacks up very well to what other free agent shortstops are getting this offseaon.

                 AGE   3-year OPS+  3-year WAR total   Total Contract  Yearly Average
J. Reyes          29      120            9.9               $111M          $18.5M
J. Rollins        33       91            9.3                $33M          $11.0M
R. Furcal         34       98            8.2                $14M           $7.0M
Y. Betancourt     30       77           -0.7                 $2M           $2.0M
J.J. Hardy        29       98            8.7              $22.5M           $7.5M

In a market where Ronny Cedeno is now considered a hot commodity and other free agents are going for much more, Hardy's extension looks like a relative bargain.

And unlink some other free agents signed last offseason to play in Baltimore, Hardy actually will be a tradeable commodity come July.

No, Hardy is not the player Reyes is when he's healthy and Hardy certainly has some injury risks of his own but he is very likely to fill the shortstop position until Manny Machado is ready to take over or bring back some other prospects to replentish the farm system. And the Orioles don't have to overpay this offseason to get a competent shortstop.

Thanks, Andy. You had many good moments as GM but Hardy may turn out to be one of your better ones.

The Endy Chavez Signing and The Oriole Free Agency Strategy Thus Far

The Orioles made it official and announced the signing of veteran outfielder Endy Chavez. The deal is reported to be worth $1.5M with another $500K in incentives.

My enduring memory of Chavez was from a game I saw him play against the Astros in Montreal in 2003. He was manning center field for the Expos and made a couple of really nice plays defensively and stroked an RBI double to tie the game. (The Expos won in the bottom of the 10th as Jose Macias, of all people, hit a walk off homer.)

He's not the fielder he was 9 years ago but he might just be the best defensive outfielder for the Orioles in 2012. His 6.6 UZR/150 score for the Rangers would have led all Oriole outfielders in 2011. His bat is not horrible and he is a decent, if not great, baserunner. As far as 4th outfielder candidates go, Matt Angle and Kyle Hudson are the only players on the roster who could fill that role and I don't think either is ready for that job in 2012 (if ever). Chavez fills a need and he is likely to be worth every penny of the contract the O's pay him.

The signing of Chavez has led to much grumbling from fans who were awaiting a more siginificant signing from the team this offseason. But upon his introduction to the press, Dan Duquette all but said that the O's would NOT be big players in free agency this offseason:

A lot of teams spent a lot of money on those major league acquisitions and didn't get the kind of production they are looking for. Here in Baltimore we have to work smarter to invest our money, so that we getter better bang for our buck. We have to work smarter.

And the thing is, he's right. Say what you will about the acquisitions made this offseason are not exciting but at least they do fill needs. There was nobody to be the backup catcher, they found a good one in Taylor Teagarden. The desperately needed a 4th outfielder, they sign Chavez. The pitching staff, especially the rotation, needs a lot of help. I do not like the Dana Eveland signing but that is an area where the O's need bodies. The low cost gamble on Tsuyoshi Wada is very likely to help the rotation.

More importantly, they haven't taken on much in payroll and they haven't given up anyone from the farm system who is likely to help the MLB club at any time in the future. Nor have they acquired any player who is likely to block any young players/prospects this season. Nor have they given out multi-million, multi-year deals to middling relievers.

No, there have been no trades of the like that brought J.J. Hardy or Mark Reynolds to town. But there have been no silly Vladimir Guerrero or Kevin Gregg signings either. The Orioles are just not going to make a big splash in free agency this offseason. And it won't help them anyway.

Lest we forget, signing Albert Belle or Miguel Tejada didn't exactly make the Orioles perennial winners. One big free agent or two or three won't assure a winning season. Especially with the team Baltimore has right now.

Andy MacPhail brought this farm system out of the abyss but the system still has a long way to go. O's fans don't want to hear about patience after 14 seasons of losing but that's what you're going to need.

If that doesn't work for you, go down I-95 and watch Jayson Werth.

The Crystal Ball 2012: Matt Wieters

Matt Wieters is finally starting to fulfill the massive promise he showed in the minors.

His bat finally started to come around and he flashed some of that power we expected to see from Day 1. He smacked 22 homers, and easily set career highs in slugging percentage and ISO. I don't think anyone believed that Wieters would be such a good defensive catcher but he delivered Gold Glove caliber defense and has cemented himself as one of the better defensive catchers in the game. No regular delivered such a combination of  bat and glove from the catcher position in 2012. (OK, Arizona's Miguel Montero comes close.)

So this is it right? He just keeps getting better and better and multiple MVPs lie in his future. Well, not exactly...

He did only hit .262 last season. He lowered his strikeout rate for the third straight season but his walk rate dipped a bit as well, contributing to his .328 OBP. And he only OPSed .662 against right handed pitchers.

Which is what concerns me. Over the first two seasons of his career, Wieters has hit fairly well against righties while struggling mightily against lefties. This season, while he was posting that .662 OPS against righties he was clobbering lefties to the tune of a 1.124 OPS.

Leaders in wOBA against left handed pitchers in 2011:

wOBA
Bautista         .475
Wieters          .472
Kemp             .462
Napoli           .445
Braun            .443

After struggling against lefties for his first two seasons, Wieters hit them, literally, at MVP levels in 2012.

Which is great...but it screams fluke.

Is Wieters going to keep OPSing 1.124 against lefties going forward. Not a chance. His OPS against lefties prior to last season was sub-.650. There's just no way he can sustain that. He career OPS against righties is .725. There is reason to believe that 2012 will see a slight hiccup and/or regression in Wieters' offensive production.

But there are still reason to believe in the bat. The power surge is likely legit and more in line with what we expected from him all along (.188 ISO in '11, a 60 point jump from the previous year) and the .276 BABIP was probably a little unlucky. With the power likely to keep on an upward clip and a few more balls falling his way, the regression against lefties that is likely to occur can be offset.

The bat is very good for a catcher and I think ultimately he will be an elite hitter but 2012 may be a bit uneven and a struggle for our Gold Glove catcher.

This Week in Chat - 12/19/2011

Where we distill all the recent baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...


Jason Parks, Baseball Prospectus

Will T. (Cary, N.C.):
Upside of Orioles RHP Parker Bridwell?

Jason Parks:
Could be an innings horse, but he still has a long way to go. He's a Texan, so that helps.

@Lembeck451 (Detroit):
Has Chris Davis officially become Chris Shelton (please say yes, please say yes), or does he have a bounceback in him?

Jason Parks:
He could bounce back, but he's probably a 4A


Tim Dierkes, MLB Trade Rumors

2:08 Comment From Dathan
What are the chances the Cardinals end up with either Adam Jones or Carlos Beltran, and which do you think is the better fit in St. Louis?

2:08 Tim Dierkes:
Jones for sure, but I don't see any indication he's available.

2:16 Comment From DumbBravesFan
Is Prado/Jurrjens (2 arb guys not in Braves' future plans) too much to give up for Adam Jones (a potential cornerstone)?

2:16 Tim Dierkes:
I'd move those two for two years of Jones, but he's not a cornerstone unless you extend him to a huge deal.

2:28 Comment From Lonely Non-Tender list
Who's the best value out there from the recent non-tender list?

2:29 Tim Dierkes:
Hong-Chih Kuo, maybe Luke Scott.

2:58 Comment From Tim
Just to be clear, the Orioles would need to get a better return than Prado/Jurrjens for AJ, correct? At least younger, more controllable players?

2:58 Tim Dierkes:
Yes, I'd want a much different return for Adam Jones as well. We have to get a feel for Dan Duquette though.

2:58 Comment From Omazing
Some Orioles sites are saying there is tons of interest in Luke Scott.. any truth to this?

2:59 Tim Dierkes:
I think Dan Connolly said ten teams called. Certainly makes sense to me, get him for one year and $5MM plus incentives not too far removed from some .500 slugging seasons.


Keith Law, ESPN

Kevin (Jersey)
Profar or Machado? Or are we splitting hairs?

Klaw (1:25 PM)
Machado. But it's not a huge gap. Pretty strong crop of SS prospects right now.

Ethan (Maine)
Why are we hearing nothing about the japenese free agent pitchers Wei-Yin Chen and Iwakuma?

Klaw (1:26 PM)
Haven't we heard Baltimore with Chen? I also assume that we need to get Darvish cleared from the market before those guys get more interest, just because they're second-tier (not just because they're also international FAs).

Michael (San Jose, CA)
Lots of disappointment in Oakland right now for us A's fans? With the emergence of the Rangers and Angels, we're basically the Baltimore Orioles without the nice ballpark.

Klaw (2:08 PM)
But you have competent management. I'm not sure we can say that for Baltimore given ownership's clear intention to meddle.

Alex (NJ)
Keith, O's pitching moves (Eveland, Wada): reasonable gambles to see who might have a decent enough year to stick, or near-guaranteed 5-ish ERA flameouts? Hope for the future obviously lies with Matusz, Britton, and guys still in the minors, but they could do worse than try Wada every fifth day, right?

Klaw (2:20 PM)
I don't see it. Low upside guys in a tough division.

Jason (St Louis)
The no on Palmeiro is because he was a consistent stat builder and not a hof, not because he used peds right?

Klaw (2:21 PM)
Correct. Really never among the best players in his league.

Obscure Oriole Transaction Spotlight: Miguel Socolovich

Who says the Orioles haven't made any moves?

Name: Miguel Socolovich
Position: RP
Throws: R
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 175
Age: 25

Socolovich is a Venezuelan native who started out in the Red Sox organization and was traded to the White Sox for David Aardsma in 2008.

Although this whole feature is meant to be tongue in cheek, Socolovich is actually an interesting pickup. So much so that Jon Shepherd at Camden Depot mentioned him as a  potential target for Baltimore more than a month ago. In 74 AAA innings over the past two seasons, the numbers look like this:

G     IP   K   BB   HR   WHIP   ERA
Socolovich (AAA)  47    74.0 93   43    4   1.50  3.65

That's an 11.3 K/9 rate at AAA which is pretty impressive. He also keeps the ball in the park which is always good. The only thing to be concerned about is his walk rate (although it was better in 2011 than it was in 2010) and that WHIP (which the walk rate is contributing to).

As many questions as there are around the Oriole bullpen this offseason, I actually see no reason why Socolovich might not get a chance to pitch in Baltimore in 2012, assuming he can continue his AAA performance for Norfolk, of course. Having spent parts of the last two season in the IL with Charlotte, I would imagine he will.

Grade: Potential Nugget

This Week in Chat - 12/14/2011

Where we distill all the recent baseball chats down to their Oriole essence...

Fangraphs After Dark Chat

Comment From Kyle
Guthire and Reimold for Volquez and Alonso. Moldy is underrated, 1.5 WAR in 80-ish games with a .261 BABIP

9:06 Jeff Zimmerman:
To the Brewers , but I agree with Paul that he stays.

9:07 Jeff Zimmerman:
I would keep Volquez for one more season on the potential

9:07 Paul Swydan:
Not sure I see the upside of the Reds acquiring Guthrie.

Comment From Baltimoron
HBT says the Cubs are trying to dump Soriano on the O's. Are the O's so bad that even Soriano could help?

9:10 Paul Swydan:
Probably not, no. But can't blame the Cubs for trying!

9:10 Jeff Zimmerman:
I think Theo want Soriano gone and the Cubs can't dump him. Trade him to a team that has no problems doing it.


Dan Szymborski, FanGraphs.com

12:46 Comment From kyle
zips thoughts on brian matusz?

12:47 Dan Szymborski:
ZiPS has his mean down to an ERA+ of 80, but still sees him as being nearly 1-in-4 of being league-average or better.

12:47 Dan Szymborski:
2011 was pretty much an unmitigated disaster for Matusz.

12:52 Comment From AC
Do you buy that the O's will really bid on Cesepedes? Also what is max you would offer him for contract?

12:53 Dan Szymborski:
I'd go a bit higher than Chapman, but I'd stop before we start talking 8 figures a year. There's a lot of uncertainty. Cespedes projects as a solid 3 win player a number of years, but we have so few Cuban translations and natural uncertainty as to his age.

1:06 Comment From Teddy
What does ZiPS have to say about Zack Britton? Is there a curse on all Orioles' pitching prospects?

1:07 Dan Szymborski:
ZiPS has Britton at 10-12, 4.85.

1:17 Comment From Archer
Dan Duquette noted that Dana Eveland had won 15 games last season between AAA and the Majors (12 in AAA), and that not a lot of lefties could say the same last season. This has to make the Os a huge threat this season, no?

1:18 Dan Szymborski:
Eveland's Baltimore projection is 7-11, 5.44. He's a lousy pitcher.


Kevin Goldstein, Baseball Prospectus

RD (NYC):
Could Adam Loewen become an everyday MLB outfielder?

Kevin Goldstein:
No. Could end up a bench guy though.


Keith Law, ESPN

Matt (No Cal)
Do Schoop and Story both end up at 2B and what kind of players do you see them developing into both offensively and defensively? Thanks.

Klaw (12:00 PM)
Schoop is a 3b, Trevor Story stays at ss. Schoop is raw but very young, chance to be an above-average regular or better. I have real questions about Story's bat, but I think he's a legit SS.

Josh (VA)
Thoughts on DD as GM in Baltimore?

Klaw (12:01 PM)
I think this is going to go very poorly. Latest thing I've heard out of there is that, despite an industry trend where teams have decoupled amateur and pro scouting, he's recoupled them in Baltimore because ... that's how they did it in Boston.

Jason (NJ)
The discussion that is being held in my office is that although Bundy's ceiling is higher than Hultzen, it is offset by the ballparks they pitch in. We are using you as the tiebreaker....

Klaw (12:14 PM)
Ballparks affect superficial stat lines, but not ceiling. Bundy is better.

Moki Dugway (Korea)
Who is the safer pick for future success, Machado or Sano?

Klaw (12:14 PM)
Machado.


Mike Newman, FanGraphs.com

5:18 Comment From GTW
Thoughts on Baltimore's pickup of Ryan Flaherty in the Rule 5 Draft today? Projected any better than replacement level?

5:19 Mike Newman:
When really bad utility players go for a couple of million, I love the move. In all honesty, he's an asset as a replacement level, minimum salaried player.

5:35 Comment From Marver
What prospects are you looking forward to seeing in person the most?

5:36 Mike Newman:
In 2012, Josh Bell and Dylan Bundy head that list.

6:04 Comment From Tommy
Thoughts on Matt Antonetti?

6:05 Mike Newman:
I liked him in AAA when I saw him and wrote about his being a guy who should receive another shot. The market for utility infielders was pretty expensive all things considered and the Orioles made a strong signing with very little risk.

Oriole Delve into Japan Again, Sign Tsuyoshi Wada

The Orioles have reportedly signed NPB pitcher Tsuyoshi Wada. Wada is a soft-tossing lefthanded starter from Japan and will be 31 this season. Quite frankly, that's all I know about him but Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker and FanGraphs.com has a short write up about him here.

I don't know if Wada will work out but given that he will make only $8.15M over the next two seasons, it's the right idea. The Orioles need to get creative to augment their pitching staff and this is a cost effective way to try.

Patrick also posted a link to video of a game Wada pitched in 2010. Here it is. You be the scout! (Remember, 1 km = .62 miles)

And the Japanese commercials are entertaining too. What else are you going to watch in the offseason?


Watch live video from MATRIX CHANNEL on Justin.tv

Luke Scott Shouldn't Be Here to Begin With

"I should be in Atlanta..."

OF/DH Luke Scott has been non-tendered by the Orioles and is now a free agent.

Scott has been an underrated slugger (in my opinion) for several years. Despite derision from some fans for his "streakiness", he always ended up his seasons as one of the better hitters on the club and did it at reasonable salaries. But a serious shoulder injury has put his future in question and the Orioles did not feel comfortable paying him $6M or more in 2012.

That is an understandable decision. What is less understandable is why Scott was on the club in 2011 and why they have to make this decision in the first place.

I'll never fully understand the free agent strategy during the 2011 offseason. The club signed a mediocre reliever for $10M and a 2-year commitment (I will not speak his name...). They signed not one, but two aging veteran reclamation projects in 1B Derrek Lee and DH Vladimir Guerrero committing more than $15 million on the gamble. (The only signings that kind of made sense were low money deals to SS Cesar Izturis and SP Justin Duchscherer. Neither worked out for the club but they weren't bad risks to provide potential depth.)

I've beaten the horse well past dead explaining how signing Lee in conjunction with Guerrero was unnecessary at best and would block promising (and cheap) prospects like Nolan Riemold at worst.

But lets say that you did want to sign those two and that you felt Guerrero still had enough left in his bat to be a serviceable DH.

Why keep Luke Scott?

Scott was coming off a career season at age 32. His trade value had been and never would be higher. With Lee and Guerrero on board, Scott was going to be pushed to leftfield where he was going to be only a fair fielder in the best of scenarios. The O's had Reimold and Felix Pie to platoon in left. Once you've made those other signings, Scott was a luxury that a rebuilding team could no longer afford.

Surely Scott could have brought back a couple of middling prospects. Maybe a cheap major league reliever. That would not be an ideal scenario but once you've pulled the trigger on Vlad, why not? As it stands now, Scott can sign with any team and the Orioles will receive nothing.

I just don't get it. Sign Lee. Or sign Vlad. Or sign both and trade Scott. But to sign both and keep Scott in 2011? It just didn't make sense. It was almost as if Andy MacPhail was gearing up for a playoff run. But could anyone look at last year's roster and truly believe this was a contending club? It was a stretch to view them as a winning one. There was so much that needed to go right for just a shot at a .500 record. But The Warehouse didn't treat the club as a rebuilding entity. Were they pandering to the fan base? Did they really believe the team was better than it was?

They needed to get some value for a guy that was made redundant by free agent signings but the Orioles refused to sell high.

Non-tendering Scott now makes a lot of sense. But keeping him a year ago, given the other free agent signings, certainly did not.

Orioles Trade for Dana Eveland...

...but we're not sure why.

The Orioles sent minor leaguers Jarret Martin and Tyler Henson to the Dodgers for LHP Dana Eveland.

First, a look at the prospects the Orioles gave up. OF Tyler Henson is not any kind of prospect to speak of. He will be 24 next season, OPSed .634 in AAA Norfolk last season and throughout his minor league career has shown very little power, bad on base skills and a .263 batting average. He is no defensive whiz either and is basically an org guy, maybe a fourth outfielder someday. No great loss.

LHP Jarret Martin is another story. I've had the chance to watch him a few times in his short career and his stuff is pretty good. His fastball sits in the low 90's and he has an 8.7 K/9 rate over his minor league career. The problem is that he has no idea where the ball is going most nights. For his career he also has a 5.9 BB/9 rate, a 1.53 WHIP and can be completely hittable when he's missing his spots. I watched one such performance against the Rome Braves last season where a very unimpressive Braves lineup shelled him for 6 earned runs in 4 innings. The guy isn't 19, he will be 22 in 2012 and unless he made some kind of quantum leap in terms of his control in Frederick, he projected to be a reliever in my eyes. So I can't get that upset about trading away an A-ball level future reliever.

But did they have to? For Dana Eveland? Eveland is my kind of pitcher in many ways. Lots of grounders and low home run rates are always a good start for a pitcher. But he also walks nearly as many as he strike out (4.5 BB/9, 5.4 K/9), has been very hittable (.808 career OPS against) and outside of 2008 and a short stint with the Dodgers in 2011, has been a bad pitcher.

Can't you find a guy like this on waivers? Or sign a free agent off the scrapheap? (That's how the Dodgers got Eveland...) Do we really need to trade pitcher who might someday help the bullpen?

If Eveland is above replacement level in 2012, I'd be shocked. I will call Dan Duquette a mad genius. But unless there's something here that I don't see, I don't get it at all.

Wrapping Up the Vladimir Guerrero Era

The Orioles made it official a couple of weeks ago and announced that they were not offering Vladimir Guerrero arbitration this winter.

This was not a big surprise as Guerrero had the worst season of his career and was generally one of the most disappointing free agent signings by the O's in recent years. Of course, most of this was forseen.

Not by the mainstream media who cover the team. His signing was hailed by most of the final cog in what would be a formidable offensive lineup for Baltimore, one that might just lead them to a winning season. Obviously, that was not the case.

But most of my fellow bloggers viewed this move with extreme skepticism or downright outrage. That's not me tooting my own horn (though I certainly hated the signing) because many, many of my colleagues pointed out the same poor logic and risks that went in to bringing Vlad on board.

There was something about Vlad that the fans loved though. At least the concept. Signing a veteran slugger who is on his way to the Hall of Fame seemed sexy and signaled a shift in the teams committment to winning. Unfortunately, that didn't generate results on the field.

It was a divisive signing from the start. I have never received such backlash as I did to my posts (or tweets) opining that Baltimore would be better served, for 2011 and for the future, to let Vlad sign elsewhere and have LF Nolan Reimold get regular playing time instead.

But the O's did sign him. For $8 million, even when it was doubtful that there was any other place for him to play.

The jury is in. It was pretty much a disaster.

How bad was he? Of all the Orioles players who played in more than half of their games, only Felix Pie was worse.

fWAR
Pie     -2.1
Guerrero 0.0
Reynolds 0.3
Lee      0.5
Reimold  1.5

Yes, Vladimir Guerrero was a replacement level player last season. And Baltimore paid him $8M for that.

In more traditional terms, Guerrero failed as well. Billed as a "proven cleanup hitter", Guerrero was dead last in home runs and RBI among Orioles who appeared in at least 100 games. His slugging percentage and ISO was third lowest among Oriole regulars (only Nick Marakkis and Robert Andino proved more punchless). Guerrero, the "proven cleanup hitter" and "RBI machine" failed on all fronts, by any measure you want to use.

(As an aside, Vlad was supposed to have all these magic RBI in his equipment bag but in 14 more games played, he came up 9 RBI short of Luke Scott's 2010 total. Sure, most of us understand that RBI sucks as an individual stat but if you have not been convinced yet, look at this example. Lineup, lineup, lineup. That's what produces RBI, not individual players. Of course, if you want to drive in runs, it also helps if you don't suck as a hitter in general...)

Despite this, Buck Showalter kept trotting him out there and letting him hit cleanup. In 87.5% of the games Guerrero played, he was #4 in your lineup. This fact alone has to make you suspect of Showalter's managing skills.

With Guerrero on the roster (coupled with the signing of Derrek Lee), Reimold was relegated to AAA. Nolan eventually returned from exile and acquitted himself well but I am still not sure we saw exactly what he can or can't do as a majpr leaguer as he only appeared in 87 games. It would have been much more beneficial for Reimold to play in 150+ to see if he has a future in Baltimore.

Finally, Guerrero brought back no prospects at the trading deadline as many fans thought he might. Nobody wanted him before the season and his poor performance did nothing to change that.

So when the team is rumored to be kicking the tires on an aging slugger this offseason, remember old Vlad. Thankfully it's all over now. But it could happen again!

O's Acquire Taylor Teagarden

The Orioles have finally added a second catcher to the roster as they traded a minor league pitcher and a player to be named later to the Rangers for Taylor Teagarden.

I have spent way too much time over the past 5+ seasons worrying about who the Oriole backup catcher would be but Teagarden might be the best of the bunch over that span.

According to Beyond the Boxscore's 2011 catcher defense ratings, Teagarden ranks 22nd in baseball in just 360 plate appearances. At worst, he is an above average defender and at best, he's pretty damn good behind the plate. In the majors, Teagarden strikes out at Mark Reynolds-like levels but without the sweet double-digit walk rates. But he does have .197 ISO over his 392 MLB plate appearances and 16 homers over that span. A .700 level OPS from your part-time catcher is nothing to sneeze at. Great glove and good pop from a backup catcher? That's pretty much all I'm looking for.

To acquire Teagarden, the Orioles sent RHP Randy Henry and a PTBNL to Texas. I have seen Henry a couple of times during his short Oriole minor league career and I like him a lot. He's got a fastball that sits comfortably in the mid-90's, he has a 8.3 K/9 rate and a 5.00 K/BB rate over his minor league career. But objectively, he'll be 22 next season, only has 15 innings pitched above low-A, has a history of elbow problems and projects to be a setup man at best. (According to Baseball America, the Rangers plan to try him out as a starter but I think reliever is his ultimate destination.) When it comes right down to it, trading a reliever in the low minors for a major league catcher, even a backup, isn't a bad move.

Teagarden will be under team control until after the 2015 season. If this works out, Matt Wieters and Teagarden could be partners for a long time.

Alfredo Simon Getting a Payday?

Alfredo Simon was acquitted of an involuntary murder charge in the Dominican Republic.

As you probably remember, Simon was accused of shooting a man during a New Year's Eve celebration about 11 months ago. At the time, I thought that was the last we would see of Simon in an Oriole uniform. Evidently, I was wrong as he appeared in 23 games for Baltimore in 2011 (including 16 starts) and was one of the better starters for the O's late in the season.

But that's not why I wrote this blurb. It was because of this phrase that caught my eye and gave me a good chuckle:

According to local news website gentetuya.com, Simon is expected to sign a $12 million contract with the Orioles.

That, on first blush is a completely laughable concept. According to Cot's Contracts, Simon isn't even eligibile for arbitration until 2013. Why would you sign him to any contract before then? They never did this to, say, Jeremy Guthrie. Why take that risk?

Now, Simon was (a bit surprisingly) worth 1.1 WAR according to Fangraphs.com which places his value to the team at $5 million for 2011. Even if you think that FanGraphs is a bit too liberal with it's valuations, Simon was probably worth $3.5-4 million. If you spread that $12 million over Simon's remaining years of control, that's $3 million per season.

Sure, he might be worth that. But would you really want to bet on it? There is no way the Orioles will be looking to lock up the likes of Alfredo Simon, certainly not before he becomes eligible for arbitration.

Dan Duquette: Man of Desperation

A great post at Et Tu, Mr. Destructo that goes into great detail about the recent hiring of new Orioles GM Dan Duquette and puts it all in context.

I haven't commented on Dan Duquette or the entire GM search for Baltimore but this passage pretty much sums up my cautious optimism:

Duquette, though, is playing with house money. He's not like LaCava. He doesn't have a reputation to lose. His last job was running a sports camp for kids. If he fails, he returns to obscurity, just another good baseball man chewed up and spit out by an out-of-touch organization. No one would blame him for not being the guy who could turn the Orioles around. But if he succeeds, then the bitter, honorable failure of an owner's last desperate gamble for a pennant-winning team came to rest on the shoulders of an outcast who was kicked to the curb and stayed there for 10 years, achieved in the face of the league's two highest payrolls and its two best front offices.


Duquette is a desperate man. He is desperate for this job and is desperate for success. Desperate men will do damn near anything to succeed and are far more willing to do unorthodox things to make it happen. Like Jonathan Bernhardt states, he really has nothing to lose. And that could be really interesting to watch.

O's Unhappy with Ed Smith Stadium Cleanup

Two years ago, the Orioles and the city of Sarasota, FL had a public lovefest as Baltimore moved their Spring Training operations to the Gulf Coast.

According to Tampa Bay Online, the honeymoon is over:

As the costs of an environmental cleanup at Ed Smith Stadium reach $1 million, the Baltimore Orioles are saying the city of Sarasota needs to pitch in more money.

The Orioles last week requested $420,000 to improve poor drainage at its spring training practice fields, a problem the team blames on an old city dump buried beneath the facility.

City Manager Bob Bartolotta says the Orioles are "trying to make a convoluted argument" to get the city to pay for field upgrades that should have come from a $24 million stadium renovation funded by taxpayers...

The Orioles are calling for that field to be rebuilt and fitted with a system of underground pipes at a cost of about $415,000. The team is also calling for a geotechnical analysis to see if the three other practice fields at the 53-acre ballpark on 12th Street and Tuttle Avenue need drainage systems...

Last December, the city and county signed off on a $975,000 cleanup plan — more than $500,000 of it to drain an underground plume of water polluted with vinyl chloride, a compound used to manufacture plastic.

It sounds really messy, physically and legally.

You would think this would have all been worked out beforehand and maybe it was and they just see it different ways. But I do find it entertaining how quickly the relationship soured between Sarasota and Peter Angelos.

Anyway, none of this will affect Spring Training 2012 (any changes the O's are pushing for will be completed before the end of the year or after Spring Training is over) or the long-term prospects of the Orioles keeping their Spring Training home in Sarasota. Neither side is going to terminate this relationship over $500,000.