It's that time again. Today, I will try to predict the Oriole win total using estimated playing time, projections and the WAR spreadsheet from Beyond the Boxscore.
I used Sky Kalkman's updated WAR Spreadsheet for the calculations and based on Matt Swartz's article on testing projections systems at Fangraphs.com, I used a combination of ZiPS and Oliver projections for the hitters and Steamer FIP projections for the pitchers.
I am assuming a 12 man pitching staff and based on that assumption, here are the 13 position players I have breaking camp:
C Matt Wieters
1B Chris Davis
2B Robert Andino
SS JJ Hardy
3B Mark Reynolds
RF Nick Markakis
CF Adam Jones
LF Nolan Reimold
IF/DH Wilson Betemit
OF Endy Chavez
IF Matt Antonelli
IF Ryan Flaherty
C Taylor Teagarden
I do not expect Brian Roberts to break camp with the rest of the team and I don't really expect him to contribute much to the Orioles going forward. That will allow the new corp of infielders to head north with the club. Nick Markakis may still start the season on the DL allowing Jai Miller a bit of playing time early.
The pitching situation is cloudier due to the current injuries, a few pitchers coming back from injury and sorting out all the options (or lack thereof) of relievers in camp. I did the best I could with the composition of the pitching staff and you could certainly trade out a Darren O'Day for a Kevin Gregg and I wouldn't have an argument with that. But the bullpen roster, outside of Jim Johnson and Matt Lindstrom, is anybody's guess and quite frankly there probably won't be a hige difference in performance. Troy Patton, for instance, is probably more wishful thinking on my part although I think he could be a very good bullpen arm. He is just as likely to be waived or traded as he is to make the team. Also wishful thinking is the departure via trade or waivers of Kevin Gregg. But I digress.
So, here it is:
A few thoughts and explanations...
- Even without the additions of big name (but old and ineffective) veterans this offseason, the projections only have the team winning 5 fewer games. (Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee didn't even sniff their 2011 projections...)
- Oliver loves Chris Davis. It projected a .803 OPS for 2012. ZiPS hates Chris Davis. It projects a .739 OPS. It was the biggest discrepency on the team. I split the difference. Anything approching the Oliver projection for Davis would be really nice for the offense.
- I have probably overestimated the total team defense. I may have overestimated the impact of plus defenders and not taken enough away from some suspect defenders. Outside of Matt Wieters and JJ Hardy, there are no defensive standouts on the team (not even Adam Jones or Nick Markakis, Gold Gloves notwithstanding). Most of the team ranges from solid to awful. That said, I think Wieters' combination of stellar defense and a solid to great bat will make him the most valuable member of the team.
- You can see the impact that losing an above average starter that can throw 200 innings can have on a rotation. All those innings are going to have to be cobbled together around Jason Hammel, the only member of the starting staff that has thrown more than 170 innings in an MLB season.
- The NPB imports of Wei Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada do not have Steamer projections. Wada's is a ZiPS projection and Chen is just a wild guess. With Wada's injury and the general difficulty of projecting NPB pitchers, these innings and ERA projections are probably the best possible scenarios.
- Speaking of best possible scenarios, remember when we were all excited about the young Oriole arms? Now, according to projecitons, getting 130 innings of 4.69 ERA from Jake Arrieta seems to be the best performance we can expect from this group. (And given he is coming back from elbow surgery, that may be in question too.) With Zach Britton's shoulder soreness, Brian Matusz's big step back in 2011 and Chris Tillman's general ineffectiveness, it's hard to count on any of them to do big things in 2012.
- Mark Reynolds should, once again, be the best offensive player on the team. Take that how you will.
All of this breaks down to about 74 wins and, unlike the last couple of years, I don't see much chance of the Orioles exceeding that win total. In fact, I think this may be the best case scenario. OK, we could have a few position players take big steps forward (Jones, Wieters, Davis and Reimold) and a couple of the young pitchers could develop into reliable starters (Matusz, Britton and Arrieta) and the NPB imports could be better than advertised and the Orioles field a decent lineup and a solid pitching staff. But if you have been watching the O's over the past few seasons, you know how unlikely all these players hitting their ceilings in the same season seems.
Given that my predicitons in previous years have been a bit too optimistic, I think Baltimore will struggle to reach 70 wins in 2012. If they fail, it will be the 6th straight season that they have failed to reach the 70 win mark. I'll try to look for silver linings to this dark cloud in the coming weeks.
Showing posts with label Projections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Projections. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 29, 2012
Friday, February 18, 2011
2011 Baltimore Oriole Projections - My Take (Kind Of)
Now that spring training has started and the roster is a bit more projectable, I figured it was time to formulate a win projection for the 2011 version of the team. Well, I kind of formulated it. I'm using the WAR spreadsheet from Beyond the Boxscore.
Here's the work but before you look, the ground rules and caveats:
* I used Marcel Projections and I grabbed those from FanGraphs. I stuck to those pretty tightly.
* Playing time was adjusted a bit from Marcel, usually granting a bit more than less to fill in the gaps.
* I gave Felix Pie, Cesar Izturis, JJ Hardy and Matt Wieters some above average defensive value scores and a slight bump to Derrek Lee. Jake Fox, Brian Roberts and Josh Bell got defensive demerits. All others were neutral.
* Only Roberts got an adjustment for baserunning.
* I assigned all batters their exact Marcel projections with three exceptions. I selected Adam Jones as my breakthrough player for 2011. I bumped him up from a .333 to a .345 wOBA (bascially a .762 OPS to a .803 OPS). It a nice jump but not a crazy one. I bumped Nick Markakis from a .353 to a .356 wOBA (an .807 OPS to roughly an .820 OPS) and I knocked Brandon Snyder's .330 wOBA down the .300.
* I used FIP for the ERA projections.
* Since I used FIP, I adjusted Jeremy Guthrie's ERA projection down by a quarter run. All other pitchers kept their Marcel projections. Except...
* I put Jake Arrieta's name on Chris Tillman's projection and vice versa. Arrieta's projection was better but I still think Tillman can miss more bats than he showed last season. So I gave Tillman the better stats even though the combined projection remains the same.
All that gives us a Win Talent of 79.8 wins which we can round up to 80.
I don't think any of these numbers I plugged in are either crazy or overly optimistic. One thing I will say is that this team is pretty thin. Any significant injury to, say, Guthrie or Matusz on the pitching side or Markakis or Scott on the hitting side throws all of this out of whack and spiraling out of control.
But with a little luck and a couple of young guys taking steps forward (even if Jones doesn't), this team could (can't believe I'm going to say it) actually win this year. I am not alone. PECOTA has the Orioles winning 82 games in 2011.
And if the young guys keep getting their starts and at bats in the process, all the better.
Here's the work but before you look, the ground rules and caveats:
* I used Marcel Projections and I grabbed those from FanGraphs. I stuck to those pretty tightly.
* Playing time was adjusted a bit from Marcel, usually granting a bit more than less to fill in the gaps.
* I gave Felix Pie, Cesar Izturis, JJ Hardy and Matt Wieters some above average defensive value scores and a slight bump to Derrek Lee. Jake Fox, Brian Roberts and Josh Bell got defensive demerits. All others were neutral.
* Only Roberts got an adjustment for baserunning.
* I assigned all batters their exact Marcel projections with three exceptions. I selected Adam Jones as my breakthrough player for 2011. I bumped him up from a .333 to a .345 wOBA (bascially a .762 OPS to a .803 OPS). It a nice jump but not a crazy one. I bumped Nick Markakis from a .353 to a .356 wOBA (an .807 OPS to roughly an .820 OPS) and I knocked Brandon Snyder's .330 wOBA down the .300.
* I used FIP for the ERA projections.
* Since I used FIP, I adjusted Jeremy Guthrie's ERA projection down by a quarter run. All other pitchers kept their Marcel projections. Except...
* I put Jake Arrieta's name on Chris Tillman's projection and vice versa. Arrieta's projection was better but I still think Tillman can miss more bats than he showed last season. So I gave Tillman the better stats even though the combined projection remains the same.
All that gives us a Win Talent of 79.8 wins which we can round up to 80.
I don't think any of these numbers I plugged in are either crazy or overly optimistic. One thing I will say is that this team is pretty thin. Any significant injury to, say, Guthrie or Matusz on the pitching side or Markakis or Scott on the hitting side throws all of this out of whack and spiraling out of control.
But with a little luck and a couple of young guys taking steps forward (even if Jones doesn't), this team could (can't believe I'm going to say it) actually win this year. I am not alone. PECOTA has the Orioles winning 82 games in 2011.
And if the young guys keep getting their starts and at bats in the process, all the better.
Thursday, September 30, 2010
2010 Chone vs 2010 Results
I took a look back at some of the CHONE projections for some of the key players from your 2010 Baltimore Orioles and compared them with the actual numbers and added a few thoughts.
I thought the projection for Ty looked a bit optimistic and it turned out that it was. Those aren't bad numbers for a bench/platoon type though. If the Orioles could bring him back next year in that role, I wouldn't be opposed. In the field he is a jack-of-all-trades but master of none type but he is a capable sub around the infield and as a corner outfielder.
Yeah, yeah...Nick is not living up to expectations. I've beat that horse enough.
This is a load of crap. Where's the Wieters we were promised? A 15.3% line drive rate? Why can't this kid drive the ball? Buck needs to fix this kid if he hopes to win in Baltimore.
The only regular to outperform expectations, Scott has put together a career year. My head says trade him, my heart says stick him at first base.
“If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, it must be a duck.” Guthrie has outperformed his projections, his FIP and his peripherals for four straight seasons. You have to accept that even though he is not the classic success story, that he is a good pitcher. He doesn't strikeout a bunch of guys, he gives up his share of homers and he doesn't get a ton of ground balls but he limits the walks and finds ways to get the opposition out.
If you extrapolate the difference in innings, that's a pretty good projection for Matusz. The second half has certainly been encouraging.
Fairly close for Bergesen too. Given his strong(er) second half, I like Bergy to improve on these numbers next season. He is, as he always has been, a decent looking back of the rotation starter.
Wigginton
AVG OBP SLG OPS HR
Projected .271 .326 .451 .777 17
Actual .254 .319 .426 .745 22
I thought the projection for Ty looked a bit optimistic and it turned out that it was. Those aren't bad numbers for a bench/platoon type though. If the Orioles could bring him back next year in that role, I wouldn't be opposed. In the field he is a jack-of-all-trades but master of none type but he is a capable sub around the infield and as a corner outfielder.
IzturisIzzy came in well under even the paltry projections. You have to wonder if the glove is good enough to justify the weak bat. I love having a guy out there who is going to catch the ball, I just don't know if it's worth the drawbacks at the plate.
AVG OBP SLG OPS HR
Projected .255 .301 .334 .635 2
Actual .236 .282 .275 .557 1
PieMan, I like Felix Pie but are these the numbers you wanted to see from him in 2010. He was injured but the lack of patience and relative lack of power make him questionable as anything more than a 4th outfielder in the long term
AVG OBP SLG OPS HR
Projected .273 .332 .435 .767 10
Actual .271 .303 .399 .703 5
JonesIn a recurring theme, Jones basically held steady instead of making real progress with his bat in 2010. Just another young hitter that is not developing much under the Oriole coaches.
AVG OBP SLG OPS HR
Projected .294 .349 .497 .846 18
Actual .280 .322 .440 .762 19
Markakis
AVG OBP SLG OPS HR
Projected .301 .373 .484 .857 19
Actual .293 .366 .426 .791 10
Yeah, yeah...Nick is not living up to expectations. I've beat that horse enough.
Wieters
AVG OBP SLG OPS HR
Projected .289 .355 .460 .815 15
Actual .252 .322 .383 .706 11
This is a load of crap. Where's the Wieters we were promised? A 15.3% line drive rate? Why can't this kid drive the ball? Buck needs to fix this kid if he hopes to win in Baltimore.
Scott
AVG OBP SLG OPS HR
Projected .259 .337 .471 .808 21
Actual .288 .365 .545 .910 27
The only regular to outperform expectations, Scott has put together a career year. My head says trade him, my heart says stick him at first base.
Guthrie
IP K BB HR ERA
Projected 184.0 107 57 28 4.65
Actual 201.1 114 57 25 3.98
“If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck, looks like a duck, it must be a duck.” Guthrie has outperformed his projections, his FIP and his peripherals for four straight seasons. You have to accept that even though he is not the classic success story, that he is a good pitcher. He doesn't strikeout a bunch of guys, he gives up his share of homers and he doesn't get a ton of ground balls but he limits the walks and finds ways to get the opposition out.
Matusz
IP K BB HR ERA
Projected 100.0 80 38 13 4.59
Actual 169.2 134 61 18 4.40
If you extrapolate the difference in innings, that's a pretty good projection for Matusz. The second half has certainly been encouraging.
Bergesen
IP K BB HR ERA
Projected 140.0 73 43 18 4.82
Actual 163.0 77 51 25 5.02
Fairly close for Bergesen too. Given his strong(er) second half, I like Bergy to improve on these numbers next season. He is, as he always has been, a decent looking back of the rotation starter.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Base Hits: Spring Training, Projections and Submariner Scouts
A quick set of Base Hits while I prepare bigger posts for later this week...
Pete Kerzel at PressBox offers his 5 Questions for Spring Training.
Like me, he needs to add a 6th item. Brad Bergesen.
*****
Camden Crazies is coordinating 2010 fan projections for the team. Go over there and help him out.
*****
Mel Antonen of USA Today takes a look at how the Cincinnati Reds left Sarasota, how the Orioles moved in and the repercussions of the shuffling:
The Orioles had reached agreement with the city and Broward County to overhaul Fort Lauderdale Stadium, but the city couldn't persuade the Federal Aviation Administration to drop its demand that the team pay $1.3 million a year for upkeep of the executive airport that is next to the field...
The Orioles meant between 30,000 and 40,000 visitors during March with 20,000 hotel-room nights sold, according to the Greater Fort Lauderdale Convention & Visitors Bureau, but baseball was a slim slice of tourism in the area, which attracted 10.8 million people in 2008.
*****
I was skimming through the Orioles directory this weekend. Did you know Todd Frohwirth was a pro scout for the team? I didn't. I used to love watching that guy pitch, him being a submariner and all. Gary Roenicke is a scout too.
*****
Jay Trucker takes a look at the round physique of relief pitcher Matt Albers.
*****
The Wayward Oriole bemoans the realities of technology encroaching on his blogging.
Long story short, Wayward O is probably going to be forced to change up publishing platforms -- unless Google comes to its senses. Hopefully this move will pave way for nifty redesign or something but most likely it will pave way for swearing and broken links.
*****
Camden Depot has an interesting interview with the makers of "Pelotero", a documentary about baseball in the Dominican Republic.
*****
I'll leave you with Ichiro. If someone can make a video like this for Nick Markakis, it would make me very happy.
Pete Kerzel at PressBox offers his 5 Questions for Spring Training.
Like me, he needs to add a 6th item. Brad Bergesen.
*****
Camden Crazies is coordinating 2010 fan projections for the team. Go over there and help him out.
*****
Mel Antonen of USA Today takes a look at how the Cincinnati Reds left Sarasota, how the Orioles moved in and the repercussions of the shuffling:
The Orioles had reached agreement with the city and Broward County to overhaul Fort Lauderdale Stadium, but the city couldn't persuade the Federal Aviation Administration to drop its demand that the team pay $1.3 million a year for upkeep of the executive airport that is next to the field...
The Orioles meant between 30,000 and 40,000 visitors during March with 20,000 hotel-room nights sold, according to the Greater Fort Lauderdale Convention & Visitors Bureau, but baseball was a slim slice of tourism in the area, which attracted 10.8 million people in 2008.
*****
I was skimming through the Orioles directory this weekend. Did you know Todd Frohwirth was a pro scout for the team? I didn't. I used to love watching that guy pitch, him being a submariner and all. Gary Roenicke is a scout too.
*****
Jay Trucker takes a look at the round physique of relief pitcher Matt Albers.
*****
The Wayward Oriole bemoans the realities of technology encroaching on his blogging.
Long story short, Wayward O is probably going to be forced to change up publishing platforms -- unless Google comes to its senses. Hopefully this move will pave way for nifty redesign or something but most likely it will pave way for swearing and broken links.
*****
Camden Depot has an interesting interview with the makers of "Pelotero", a documentary about baseball in the Dominican Republic.
*****
I'll leave you with Ichiro. If someone can make a video like this for Nick Markakis, it would make me very happy.
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