Wrapping Up the Vladimir Guerrero Era

The Orioles made it official a couple of weeks ago and announced that they were not offering Vladimir Guerrero arbitration this winter.

This was not a big surprise as Guerrero had the worst season of his career and was generally one of the most disappointing free agent signings by the O's in recent years. Of course, most of this was forseen.

Not by the mainstream media who cover the team. His signing was hailed by most of the final cog in what would be a formidable offensive lineup for Baltimore, one that might just lead them to a winning season. Obviously, that was not the case.

But most of my fellow bloggers viewed this move with extreme skepticism or downright outrage. That's not me tooting my own horn (though I certainly hated the signing) because many, many of my colleagues pointed out the same poor logic and risks that went in to bringing Vlad on board.

There was something about Vlad that the fans loved though. At least the concept. Signing a veteran slugger who is on his way to the Hall of Fame seemed sexy and signaled a shift in the teams committment to winning. Unfortunately, that didn't generate results on the field.

It was a divisive signing from the start. I have never received such backlash as I did to my posts (or tweets) opining that Baltimore would be better served, for 2011 and for the future, to let Vlad sign elsewhere and have LF Nolan Reimold get regular playing time instead.

But the O's did sign him. For $8 million, even when it was doubtful that there was any other place for him to play.

The jury is in. It was pretty much a disaster.

How bad was he? Of all the Orioles players who played in more than half of their games, only Felix Pie was worse.

fWAR
Pie     -2.1
Guerrero 0.0
Reynolds 0.3
Lee      0.5
Reimold  1.5

Yes, Vladimir Guerrero was a replacement level player last season. And Baltimore paid him $8M for that.

In more traditional terms, Guerrero failed as well. Billed as a "proven cleanup hitter", Guerrero was dead last in home runs and RBI among Orioles who appeared in at least 100 games. His slugging percentage and ISO was third lowest among Oriole regulars (only Nick Marakkis and Robert Andino proved more punchless). Guerrero, the "proven cleanup hitter" and "RBI machine" failed on all fronts, by any measure you want to use.

(As an aside, Vlad was supposed to have all these magic RBI in his equipment bag but in 14 more games played, he came up 9 RBI short of Luke Scott's 2010 total. Sure, most of us understand that RBI sucks as an individual stat but if you have not been convinced yet, look at this example. Lineup, lineup, lineup. That's what produces RBI, not individual players. Of course, if you want to drive in runs, it also helps if you don't suck as a hitter in general...)

Despite this, Buck Showalter kept trotting him out there and letting him hit cleanup. In 87.5% of the games Guerrero played, he was #4 in your lineup. This fact alone has to make you suspect of Showalter's managing skills.

With Guerrero on the roster (coupled with the signing of Derrek Lee), Reimold was relegated to AAA. Nolan eventually returned from exile and acquitted himself well but I am still not sure we saw exactly what he can or can't do as a majpr leaguer as he only appeared in 87 games. It would have been much more beneficial for Reimold to play in 150+ to see if he has a future in Baltimore.

Finally, Guerrero brought back no prospects at the trading deadline as many fans thought he might. Nobody wanted him before the season and his poor performance did nothing to change that.

So when the team is rumored to be kicking the tires on an aging slugger this offseason, remember old Vlad. Thankfully it's all over now. But it could happen again!

2011 Oriole Predictions Revisited

Better late than never, I figured I would revisit my pre-season predicitons for 2011 for the Orioles. Here they are (were):


If Brian Roberts plays in 130 games, I'm going with 80 wins. If he ends up on the DL, 76 wins.

Wow, I was really optimistic for 2011. Roberts did not play in 130 games, obviously. But the O's fell 7 wins short of my projections. I figured the pitching staff would struggle but not as much as it did. A top of the rotation that included Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz and Zach Britton held much more promise than it delivered.

Zach Britton wins the AL Rookie of the Year. Yeah, Jeremy Hellickson is the odds on favorite but I think Britton comes up on the outside and catches him.


Dead wrong. Britton had his bright spots but Hellickson had a solid season (helped by the defensive team behind him) and is still one of the favorites for the award. Dustin Ackley, Eric Hosmer and others from a strong rookie class.

Adam Jones breaks out this season. A mild breakout, something like a .295/.340/.450. 20 home runs. But a breakout nonetheless.


Jones hit .280/.319/.466 on the year. I predicted a .790 OPS, he OPS'ed .785. He broke out with the power more than with his hit tool (25 homers). But pretty close

I can't predict playing time but Nolan Reimold will finish the season with a higher OPS than Vladimir Guerrero. So will Luke Scott.


One of the few things I was really right on was the Reimold versus Guerrero debate. Reimold finished with a .781 OPS, Guerrero with a .733 OPS. Luke Scott only had a .703 OPS but if healthy, I think he would have hit somewhere north of a .750 OPS. I'm calling this one as correct.

Jeremy Guthrie will, once again, have an ERA lower than his FIP. Probably significantly so.

Not really. Guthrie's FIP was 4.48 (xFIP was 4.47) and his actual ERA was 4.33.

Nick Markakis will hit 40 doubles. Again. Also will have at least a .360 OBP.

This seemed like a real no-brainer before the season but Nick didn't come close to that 40 double mark, only 31 this season. And he rallied for a .351 OBP late in the season. But I continue to have rose colored glasses when it comes to Nick. It was the worst offensive season of his career.

Matt Wieters hits 15 home runs. Anything else he does is anybody's guess.


He hit 22 homers, had his best offensive year yet and became one of the top defensive catchers in baseball.

Luke Scott will OPS north of .850.


Not exactly. Even if healthy, I don't think Scott could have streaked his way to that number.

Josh Rupe doesn't see May 15th in Baltimore. He sees it from Norfolk.


I had forgotten all about Josh Rupe until I reviewed this post. May 5th was his last appearance for Baltimore.

Zach Britton is in Baltimore before May 15th.


Injuries made this a near necessity in early April.

JJ Hardy will be a fan favorite by June 1st.


I'll vote no on this. On June 1st, Hardy was OPSing .730 with 3 homers. The rest of the way he OPSed .817 with 27 homers. He was winning hearts in June and July but not by June 1st.

Matt Albers will outperform most of the Oriole pen while pitching for Boston.


This was definitely true through, oh, right about the All-Star break. But Albers' late season struggles gave him a 4.73 ERA (worse than his mark for the O's in 2010) and although his strikeout numbers improved, he just wasn't very good in Boston.

Mark Hendrickson ends up playing a large role in the Oriole season. Take that as you will.

Hendrickson pitched 11 innings for the O's in 2011. Not. Even. Close.

Mark Reynolds hits 30 homers and has 200 Ks.


Reynolds exceeded even my great expectations by hitting 37 homers but fell just short of the strikeout predicition with 196.

Vlad is Teflon. There's Nothing to be Done

In Vlad's dreams, Father Time takes the shape of a large parrot...

I was going to say that this post was not me picking on PressBoxOnline.com Oriole beat reporter Matt Palmer. But that would be disingenuous. I am totally going to pick on him to make a larger point.

Matt decided to give grades to various facets of the team for their performance up to the end of May. Here's a sample.

Infield
Grade: C-


...Hardy missed most of April with an intercostal strain, but in 25 games, has not made an error. Offensively, he's been decent, batting .234 with 12 runs driven in and nine runs scored.


Reynolds is no better now than he was when he arrived with the Orioles. He is batting .198 and has struck out 52 times, good for nearly one per game. At this pace, he'll miss .200 for the first time since 2007. Still, he has just seven home runs. If that's his bread and butter and that's not happening, something's wrong. His on-base, slugging and on-base plus slugging percentages are at career lows. He has nine errors and is halfway to the number he had last year...

Now, if we're just going to cite batting averages, hitting .234 is not "decent". Cesar Izturis hit .230 last season. But Hardy is up to .250 and will likely hit better so that's just nitpicking on my part.

And he is not at all wrong about Mark Reynolds. All those thing are absolutely true. Remember them.

Designated Hitter
Grade: B+


For the most part, the Orioles are getting what they expected out of Vladimir Guerrero. He has 23 RBIs with five home runs, so his power abilities are starting to diminish just a bit. Still, he changes the lineup's dynamics just by his mere presence. He leads the team in batting average (.295) and hits (61). The question remains, how long will he be in Baltimore? He's going to be attractive to American League teams with playoff hopes next month.

Let's take this line by line. Getting what they expected out of Guerrero? He is on a pace for 15 home runs so far. 15. Vlad has never hit fewer than 25 over a full season. That is NOT what the Orioles expected out of Vlad. His "power abilities are starting to diminish"? They've diminished! They're gone!

And there it is. Let's let this phrase lie for a second:

"Still, he changes the lineup's dynamics just by his mere presence."

Oh, it's OK then. Because Vlad is magic.

I am beginning to believe that Vlad is magic. He is able to make his poor performance look attractive to a whole lot of fans and media.

And how has this change in dynamic helped the club? This is one of the worst scoring teams in the American League. Only Minnesota, Seattle and Oakland are worse. (And we see how our offense stacks up against Oakland and Seattle in their home parks.) Vlad Guerrero is not a talisman. He's a washed-up hitter. Period.

And he is NOT going to look attractive to AL teams with playoff hopes. He stinks. Let's apply this phrase written about Reynolds to Guerrero.

Still, he has just (five) home runs. If that's his bread and butter and that's not happening, something's wrong. His on-base, slugging and on-base plus slugging percentages are at career lows.

All of the above statements are as true about Vlad as they are about Reynolds. Hell, Reynolds isn't even hitting that much worse than Vlad at this point. (.307 wOBA for Reynolds, .315 wOBA for Guerrero.)

And Guerrero gets a B+. It's just unbelievable.

Matt's not alone is his assessment. Many people think Vlad is having a fine season and is just peachy. It's the great Orange and Black swindle of 2011.

He Walks! Vlad Guerrero Walks!

Last night in Kansas City, a remarkable streak ended. Vlad Guerrero drew a walk.

It was his first walk of the season but he didn't walk the last two games of last season either. It was 29 starts without a walk. He finally walked three plate appearances into his 30th start.

Top streaks of consecutive starts without a walk for Oriole batters:

Rk                 Strk Start        End Games  AB
1      Larry Haney 1967-09-02 1968-09-18    39 137
                                                  
2      Charlie Lau 1962-06-03 1964-06-17    34 134
                                                  
3       Cal Ripken 1999-06-05 1999-07-21    31 130
4      Ken Gerhart 1987-04-17 1987-06-20    31 113
5         Bob Hale 1955-07-08 1955-09-11    31 124
                                                  
6     Billy Ripken 1988-09-04 1989-04-30    30  97
7    Billy Gardner 1956-09-03 1957-04-20    30 119
                                                  
8      Andres Mora 1976-04-21 1976-07-06    29 111
9    Vlad Guerrero 2010-10-02 2011-05-02    29 119
10     Jerry Adair 1964-05-14 1964-06-21    29 119
11     Jerry Adair 1963-07-04 1963-08-21    29 111
                                                  

As you can see, Guerrero was performing a rare feat. Among the hitters on this list, Cal Ripken was the most recent streak and that was nearly 12 years ago. All in all, it's not a great streak for Vlad's performance (although during Cal's walkless streak, he OPS'ed .964) but it was kind of fun to watch.

So going back to last season, Guerrero went 123 straight plate appearance without a walk before last night.

I don't need to see another one right now.

Not So Fast, Nolan Reimold Detractors

A quick rebuttal to Stacey Long's post about Nolan Reimold over at Camden Chat and answering the question, "(H)as Reimold lived up to the justification" of the Reimold in Exile/Free Nolan Reimold sentiment.

Let me first address the terminology that Stacy uses.

...to prove himself at the minor league level before being handed a major league job....Nolan Reimold hasn't done anything to deserve a major league job.

We have to get past this concept of "handed" or "deserves" a major league roster spot. This isn't about merit or proving one's self. It's just not.

Reimold was and is a viable option in this lineup and can help the team. There is no need to make him earn anything. If you feel he can help the team, you give him a spot. (Conversely, if you don't, maybe you should shop him around...) He shouldn't have to break down the door. It's better for the team if he's playing in Baltimore.

Why is it better? It will be helpful to find out if Reimold can be a regular major league player. The only way to find out for sure...is to let him play in the majors. If he flames out, the team knows they need to find another option for next season through free agency. If he plays well, he's a low-cost solution in left (or at first base) and the team can spend money elsewhere to fill other holes in the roster (of which there are many). This team is not going to contend (or likely win) with the "veteran presence" they signed in the offseason. You might as will find out what you have in house.

But future considerations are not the only reason to let Nolan play. He could actually help the team now. More than the current options on the roster.

It is no secret that I was against the Vlad Guerrero signing. Not because I didn't like Vlad as a hitter at this point in his career (although I didn't) but because they had already signed Derrek Lee to play first base and that Vlad wasn't filling a hole but blocking an option that could be more valuable in the short term and certainly in the long term.

And I'm not crazy about reading too much into 15 or 20 games but that's the premise that was laid out, so it is the premise that I must refute.

I ran Reimold's numbers through the Minor League Equivalency Calculator on MinorLeagueSplits.com. Here's the results compared to Guerrero's actual numbers this season:

                      AB  R   H   2B   3B   HR   RBI  BB   K    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS   
Reimold Equivalent    63  5  15    1    0    2    5    6  21  .235  .320  .328  .648
Guerrero 2011         83  7  22    2    0    3    9    0  13  .265  .265  .398  .663

Neither of those lines is great but is Vlad worth the extra $7.5 million in salary for that production?

(By the way, look at the 0 walks for Vlad. Zero. We are closing in fast on the first of May and the guy has zero walks. A 36-year old DH with zero walks. And we know that Stacy values walks.)

The fact that Reimold can play the field to some extent makes him a more valuable and versatile player. Right now. Today.

Forget about Reimold "earning" a chance. He doesn't have to earn a chance. He only has to be a better option than what's on the roster right now. And he's a better option than Guerrero right now. Right. Now.

And he hasn't even started to hit yet. I'll put my money on the guy a decade younger when looking for a rebound.

But things changed when the Orioles signed Vladimir Guerrero. Now, nothing short of an injury or a mid-season trade is going to give Reimold a chance to get promoted. I understand that's where the indignation comes from, and to an extent I understand. Vlad won't help the team long term, Reimold might, and whenever he's ready, he'll be stuck at AAA.

Yep, that pretty much sums up my indignation.

Reimold's ready enough for this team. He's better now, he's better for the future.

Free Nolan Reimold.

Quick Thoughts on Last Night's Game

I have some reactions to last night's game...or some reactions to reactions to last night's game.

Christ Tillman....he was bad. I completely agree. But why would you want to send the guy back to AAA. I'll post his AAA numbers...again.

Lev    W  L W-L%  ERA  G CG SHO    IP   H HR BB  SO  WHIP HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
AAA   19 13 .594 3.06 39  2   2 218.0 205 15 56 193 1.197  0.6  2.3  8.0  3.45

Whatever he does in AAA works for him. Call him a AAAA pitcher but there's no reason for him to go down. He should live or die right here in Baltimore.

That future in Baltimore may lay in the bullpen. And that's just fine with me. He needs to face major league hitter and maybe the pen is the way to go.

But until Brian Matusz comes back, you've got to keep trotting him out there every fifth day. I just got done watching the majority of the Norfolk Tides rotation and it's not pretty.

2011 ERA
Ryan Drese         8.18
Mark Hendrickson  12.50
Michael Ballard    6.00
Rick VandenHurk    6.00

The only starter who looked decent was Troy Patton...and he's on the DL now.

There are no better options. There is no help arriving. Tillman should remain in the rotation until Matusz returns and should pitch somewhere for Baltimore all this season. There are no better options.

About Vlad Guerrero...I have seen some grumbling about Vlad's free swinging ways amongst fans and from the press.

The vast majority of the fans and all of the mainstream media were really enthusiastic about his signing. But the guy has been a free swinger at the plate for 15 seasons and he has built himself a Hall of Fame resume with that approach.

And now you expect him to change it?

Vlad is not going to stop swinging. Game situations don't matter to him. His approach is his approach and he's not suddenly going to become more patient at age 36. The very notion is hilarious.

Of course things would be better if he were more patient. His career would have been more brilliant than it already was if he was more patient. But he's not. He's Vladimir Guerrero. He's what he has always been.

I remember a few years back when Frank Thomas was playing for the Blue Jays and injuries and such forced the manager to move Thomas into the cleanup spot in the lineup. And then Thomas was criticized for not being more aggressive at the plate to "drive in runs" and continuing to take walks. Forget the fact that that is what Frank Thomas was and always was...sometimes people illogically expect different results from the same guy.

I was not in favor of the Guerrero signing but I'll be damned if I'm going to criticize his approach at the plate. It's like being critical of a duck for having webbed feet. He is what he is.

And everybody wanted him. Now you have him.

Finally, quit quoting me stats about how the Orioles are hitting with runners in scoring position. It's a completely meaningless stat. So stop it or I'll have to explain why it's stupid.

OK, resume party...

Juggernaut!: Tigers Can't Slow Down Orioles

Butt Bump!

The Orioles opened up Camden Yards for the 2011 season in style dispatching of the Detroit Tigers 5-1 before a sellout crowd this afternoon.

If you've been watching the Orioles play so far, you've seen something rare. The Orioles have not gone 4-0 since 1997.

25-year-old RHP Jake Arrieta held the Tiger offense (a lineup that put up 19 runs during their 3 game series with the Yankees) to a single run over 6 innings. Relievers Jason Berken and Koji Uehara held Detroit to one hit over the last 3 innings to lock down the game.

The big offensive blow came, again, from Brian Roberts. Roberts went deep against SP Rick Porcello for yet another 3-run homer to break a 1-1 tie in the 5th and put the Orioles ahead for good.

I liked Arrieta's poise this afternoon. He only struck out 3 and walked 2. He got the ball up in the zone and few times and gave up some hard hits. But he defense let him down on a couple of occasions. Adam Jones broke back instead on in and turned a flyout into a single and Mark Reynolds bobbled a sure double play ball in the middle of a Tiger rally. But Arrieta did not rattle. He kept throwing strikes and although he threw 99 pitches to get through 6 innings, he held the line.

Now the nitpicking...the offense is not hitting well overall. Roberts is not going to keep hitting 3-run bombs. Luke Scott is day-to-day. Vladimir Guerrero can't buy a hit and Jones looks no better as they both flail at everything thrown their way. Nobody but Roberts has hit a home run. The pitching staff has been fairly lucky and been bailed out by great defensive plays early. Signs point to a regression unless performances improve.

But for now, the Orioles are taking care of business. The performances from the young hurlers are extremely encouraging and should give them a bit of confidence moving forward. Scott could play on Wednesday. Roberts, Nick Markakis, Matt Wieters and JJ Hardy are hitting well. The defense, overall, is playing pretty well.

Jeremy Guthrie is in the hospital with pneumonia. Brad Bergesen will have to make a start on Wednesday. This little winning streak could come to an end very soon.

But winning is always better than losing. The Orioles had some really bad luck on their way to a 5-18 April a year ago. I'll certainly take a few good bounces our way. And I can't wait to see the young guys take the mound again.


(Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)