Brad Bergesen is coming up to start for Baltimore on Tuesday versus the White Sox.
I suppose they had little choice at this point; it was either him or Chris Waters. But given their strategy as stated in Spring Training, Waters would have been a better choice. If they were all for youth being served this season, wouldn't Hayden Penn have been a fine fit?
Bergesen may be fine but I'm not sure a couple starts in AAA make him any more ready for the big time than he was three weeks ago.
Get ready O's fans; the future is now.
Showing posts with label Hayden Penn. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hayden Penn. Show all posts
Saturday, April 18, 2009
Friday, April 3, 2009
Base Hits: 4/3/2009
Tangotiger is relying on the wisdom of crowds to create a projection system based on playing time. What's missing? Your input? To quote Tango, "Who knows more about whether a pitcher will be in the starting rotation or the bullpen: an algorithm or a true fan?...There are certain human observation elements that are critical for forecasting."
Go give him a hand; it's kind of fun.
*****
Two Oriole related post at The Hardball Times: Evan Brunell asked Five Questions about the 2009 Orioles and Colin Wyers tempers some of the insane projections for Oriole prospect Matt Wieters. The good news? Wieters still looks like the real deal.
*****
Weaver's Tantrum takes a look at Robert Andino through the eyes of Marlins fans.
Dave and I disagree about the merits of this trade...but more on this later in the post.
*****
FrostKing has finished up his WAR spreadsheet now that the roster is more settled. I may finish up mine over vacation...when I'm not so depressed.
*****
The Baltimore Sun rips the Spring Training facilities in Ft. Lauderdale and Sarasota and quotes several players.
And it's rare that I wholeheartedly agree with Nestor Aparicio but he throws his two cents in on the stadium in Ft. Lauderdale too. He's 100% correct. It's a joke. (tip of the hat to Anthony at Oriole Post for linking to Nestor's post...)
*****
Some things are so good and so consistent that you take them for granted. It goes without saying that I read Rock Kubatko's School of Roch blog religiously. What hasn't been said is that Kubatko's Spring Training coverage is always stellar and that he provides the better coverage of the Orioles than any other writer on the beat. And it's not even close.
Really, his posts are unmissable if you are a diehard fan.
*****
The Wayward Oriole is ready for the season to start.
*****
Just a few parting shots and predictions for the season...
I hate the Hayden Penn trade. We could have just kept Jolbert Cabrera if we needed a fourth bench player. I'd rather fail with a 24-year old pitcher than with a bunch of retreads or never-were's like Eaton, Simon and Hendrickson. So my first prediction is that Penn turns out to be way more useful to the Marlins than Robert Andino will be to Baltimore.
Alfredo Simon is out of the rotation by the end of May. He won't be with the big club by July.
Matt Wieters is here in May.
Brad Bergeson is here in July.
Brian Matusz is here is September.
The Orioles win 72 games.
Lou Montanez won't OPS better than .750 at any level...unless he goes back to Bowie.
Nick Markakis OPS's .900+
Felix Pie gets better in the second half.
Adam Jones hits 20+ home runs.
Luke Scott and Ty Wigginton provide the best Oriole platoon since...well, in a very long time.
*****
Ironically, I won't be posting much next week as I'll be on vacation and will have limited access to the internet during that time. Let's hope for a respectable opening series...
Go give him a hand; it's kind of fun.
*****
Two Oriole related post at The Hardball Times: Evan Brunell asked Five Questions about the 2009 Orioles and Colin Wyers tempers some of the insane projections for Oriole prospect Matt Wieters. The good news? Wieters still looks like the real deal.
*****
Weaver's Tantrum takes a look at Robert Andino through the eyes of Marlins fans.
Dave and I disagree about the merits of this trade...but more on this later in the post.
*****
FrostKing has finished up his WAR spreadsheet now that the roster is more settled. I may finish up mine over vacation...when I'm not so depressed.
*****
The Baltimore Sun rips the Spring Training facilities in Ft. Lauderdale and Sarasota and quotes several players.
And it's rare that I wholeheartedly agree with Nestor Aparicio but he throws his two cents in on the stadium in Ft. Lauderdale too. He's 100% correct. It's a joke. (tip of the hat to Anthony at Oriole Post for linking to Nestor's post...)
*****
Some things are so good and so consistent that you take them for granted. It goes without saying that I read Rock Kubatko's School of Roch blog religiously. What hasn't been said is that Kubatko's Spring Training coverage is always stellar and that he provides the better coverage of the Orioles than any other writer on the beat. And it's not even close.
Really, his posts are unmissable if you are a diehard fan.
*****
The Wayward Oriole is ready for the season to start.
*****
Just a few parting shots and predictions for the season...
I hate the Hayden Penn trade. We could have just kept Jolbert Cabrera if we needed a fourth bench player. I'd rather fail with a 24-year old pitcher than with a bunch of retreads or never-were's like Eaton, Simon and Hendrickson. So my first prediction is that Penn turns out to be way more useful to the Marlins than Robert Andino will be to Baltimore.
Alfredo Simon is out of the rotation by the end of May. He won't be with the big club by July.
Matt Wieters is here in May.
Brad Bergeson is here in July.
Brian Matusz is here is September.
The Orioles win 72 games.
Lou Montanez won't OPS better than .750 at any level...unless he goes back to Bowie.
Nick Markakis OPS's .900+
Felix Pie gets better in the second half.
Adam Jones hits 20+ home runs.
Luke Scott and Ty Wigginton provide the best Oriole platoon since...well, in a very long time.
*****
Ironically, I won't be posting much next week as I'll be on vacation and will have limited access to the internet during that time. Let's hope for a respectable opening series...
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Base Hits: 4/1/2009
I don't want to let this go but I don't want to beat a dead horse either...but one more comment on Montanez vs. Pie.
Comments like this are prolific on discussion boards and article comments:
Hayden Penn has been traded to the Marlins for IF Robert Andino.
Comments like this are prolific on discussion boards and article comments:
I also fear Pie will be one of those can't do anything wrong types because the resident genius hand picked him.
OK, just to set the record straight....Yes, Andy MacPhail picked Pie...but he picked Montanez too! 1st round pick in 2000! Andy hand picked him too!
OK, I feel better now.
*****
Dave Mc (formerly Desert O) has created an O'specific Search Engine that is on the front page of Weaver's Tantrum. It works great. I searched for Reggie Jackson and Pat Hentgen for a test case and both came up with Oriole-centric results. Click on some of the ads while you're at it.
*****
I did a quick Q&A with Sadler of Right Off Russell. Nothing earth-shattering if you are a regular reader but a lot of good stuff on this new Baltimore sports blog.
*****
Nick Markakis had a chat on ESPN.com. He struggles against Roy Halladay, loved to hit in Safeco Field and thinks Adam Jones has a far superior arm. All of these thing, statistically, appear to be true.
*****
Hayden Penn has been traded to the Marlins for IF Robert Andino.Andino seems to be a no-hit, good-glove guy who moved up the Marlins farm system while only hitting at a moderate level. Some preliminary digging around shows a questionable glove but I guess we'll have to see how he does in the Orange and Black.
I'm still a fan of Penn. Good luck Hayden. I'll add this to the Trade Monitor...
*****
Simon Makes the Rotation?
Alfredo Simon and his ERA:2005 AA Norwich - 91.1 IP, 5.03 ERA
2006 A+ San Jose - 36.1 IP, 6.44 ERA
2006 AAA Fresno - 52.0 IP, 6.75 ERA
2007 AAA OK. City - 119 IP, 6.43 ERA
2008 AAA Norfolk - 4.2 IP, 5.79 ERA
2008 MLB Orioles - 13 IP, 6.23 ERA
I don't know if Hayden Penn will be claimed off of waivers. I don't know if he will ever be a decent major league pitcher. But I can guarantee you that Alfredo Simon won't outperform him in 2009.
Even CHONE (optimisitically) projects Simon at a 5.45 ERA. It puts Penn at a 5.14 ERA.
I'm predicting an ERA north of 5.75 for Simon this year. Not really sure that this is worth potentially kicking Penn to the curb for.
Andy, Dave: You really didn't need Daniel Cabrera for one more year?
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Pick the Mystery Player...
I've seen this elsewhere so I figured I would use this method to get up on my soapbox...
Which outfielder would you choose? Neither has more than 300 big league at bats. Their minor league stats:
Player B has a significant advantage in OPS, mostly from his slugging percentage. Now, just imagine that Player B is three years younger than player B. Who would you choose?
Now, over the course of 50 at bats in Spring Training, Player A outplays Player B by a significant margin. Would that change your decision?
If you haven't yet guessed, Player A is Lou Montanez and Player B is Felix Pie. I can't believe any rational person would've selected Player A, regardless of the Spring Training stats. Especially when you factor in that Pie has more than 1000 ABs at AAA while Montanez has less than 500.
Everybody calm down...and send Montanez to Norfolk.
(edit: Looks like the front office has some sense when it comes to this issue...thank God.)
Now let's look at some pitchers. All have less than 90 innings of big league experience. Their minor league stats:
Now based on these numbers alone, you would probably rank Player B at the top narrowly over Player A. But it is clear that you would rank Player C at the bottom by any stat listed here.
Now consider their ages. Player B is the youngest with Player A three years older and Player C 4 years older. Now how are they ranked?
Now consider that Player C has outperformed the other two players over less than 20 innings in Spring Training. Does that change your opinion?
Player A is Brian Bass. Player B is Hayden Penn. Player C is...Alfredo Simon. Does he still look like the best option for a back of the rotation starter.
I say no. Off to Norfolk with Simon too.
Just a little food for thought...
Which outfielder would you choose? Neither has more than 300 big league at bats. Their minor league stats:
Player AVG OBP SLG OPS
Player A .282 .348 .430 .778
Player B .299 .355 .470 .825
Player B has a significant advantage in OPS, mostly from his slugging percentage. Now, just imagine that Player B is three years younger than player B. Who would you choose?
Now, over the course of 50 at bats in Spring Training, Player A outplays Player B by a significant margin. Would that change your decision?
If you haven't yet guessed, Player A is Lou Montanez and Player B is Felix Pie. I can't believe any rational person would've selected Player A, regardless of the Spring Training stats. Especially when you factor in that Pie has more than 1000 ABs at AAA while Montanez has less than 500.
Everybody calm down...and send Montanez to Norfolk.
(edit: Looks like the front office has some sense when it comes to this issue...thank God.)
Now let's look at some pitchers. All have less than 90 innings of big league experience. Their minor league stats:
Player ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Player A 4.18 1.30 6.0 3.0 0.7
Player B 3.87 1.30 8.0 3.0 0.8
Player C 5.04 1.46 6.7 3.0 1.1
Now based on these numbers alone, you would probably rank Player B at the top narrowly over Player A. But it is clear that you would rank Player C at the bottom by any stat listed here.
Now consider their ages. Player B is the youngest with Player A three years older and Player C 4 years older. Now how are they ranked?
Now consider that Player C has outperformed the other two players over less than 20 innings in Spring Training. Does that change your opinion?
Player A is Brian Bass. Player B is Hayden Penn. Player C is...Alfredo Simon. Does he still look like the best option for a back of the rotation starter.
I say no. Off to Norfolk with Simon too.
Just a little food for thought...
Monday, March 30, 2009
Forget Who Will Make the Rotation...Who Should?
I think I've (unsuccessfully) taken a few guesses about who would be in the final rotation. But who actually should be in the Opening Day rotation? Glad you asked...
Raise your hand if you honestly believe the Orioles can win this season? Yeah , me neither. So unlike most teams, this is not just a matter of picking pitchers who give the team the best chance to win. It goes deeper than that.
It should be three levels of criteria:
1) Pitchers who give you team the best chance to win.
2) Pitchers with upside who may or may not be ready for the majors but are out of minor league options.
3) Pitcher who can be used as cannon fodder, eating some innings for a couple months while better options can be found without resorting to rushing young arms to the majors.
The team has basically exhausted the first piece of criteria with Jeremy Guthrie and Koji Uehara. These two can reasonable be expected to go out and compete on a regular basis.
Now there are five pitchers remaining for the three spots left in the rotation: Hayden Penn, Brian Bass, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton and Alfredo Simon.
Hayden Penn is covered with the second rule. He is only 24 but due to some mismanagement under previous regimes, he is out of minor league options. Penn was due to be called up a couple times over the last two seasons but untimely illness or injury spoiled those opportunities. Penn would be claimed if they tried to get him through waivers and quite frankly he hasn't pitched any worse than anybody else this spring. Stick him in as the number 5 pitcher and see if he can work it out. When Rich Hill comes back, move him to the bullpen. This guy still has value, it would be a shame to let him go before we've really given him a shot.
Now come the sacrificial lambs. The biggest mistake Andy MacPhail made this offseason was not offering Daniel Cabrera arbitration. He would've given the team more than 170 innings and probably would have been better than any of the guys we have in camp.
So in lieu of Cabrera, Adam Eaton and Mark Hendrickson fit the bill. These guys have the best shot at remaining effective enough in the rotation that they will last 2 months or more on the front lines. If they can hang in there, Rich Hill may return and be effective, Brad Bergesen and\or David Hernandez may tear up AAA and earn a promotion...these guys are there to buy the club some time until better options are ready. I think they can do it, at least as well as Garrett Olson and Radhames Liz did last season.
Brian Bass is a Brian Burress type, best when utilized as a swingman out of the bullpen and that's a best case scenario.
Quick quiz: When was the last time Alfredo Simon posted an ERA less than 6.00 at any level of professional baseball? That was in AA in 2005 when he posted a 5.03 ERA. I've refrained from bashing the guy since I've said repeatedly that the rotation's theme for 2009 should be "We take anybody." But this guy doesn't belong on anyone's radar for a major league job, not even the Orioles. He hasn't even had fluky Luis Hernandez success on any level. Cut him.
So the starting rotation for the Baltimore Orioles on April 6th should be:
Guthrie
Uehara
Eaton
Hendrickson
Penn
Anything else at this point wouldn't make a lot of sense.
Raise your hand if you honestly believe the Orioles can win this season? Yeah , me neither. So unlike most teams, this is not just a matter of picking pitchers who give the team the best chance to win. It goes deeper than that.
It should be three levels of criteria:
1) Pitchers who give you team the best chance to win.
2) Pitchers with upside who may or may not be ready for the majors but are out of minor league options.
3) Pitcher who can be used as cannon fodder, eating some innings for a couple months while better options can be found without resorting to rushing young arms to the majors.
The team has basically exhausted the first piece of criteria with Jeremy Guthrie and Koji Uehara. These two can reasonable be expected to go out and compete on a regular basis.
Now there are five pitchers remaining for the three spots left in the rotation: Hayden Penn, Brian Bass, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton and Alfredo Simon.
Hayden Penn is covered with the second rule. He is only 24 but due to some mismanagement under previous regimes, he is out of minor league options. Penn was due to be called up a couple times over the last two seasons but untimely illness or injury spoiled those opportunities. Penn would be claimed if they tried to get him through waivers and quite frankly he hasn't pitched any worse than anybody else this spring. Stick him in as the number 5 pitcher and see if he can work it out. When Rich Hill comes back, move him to the bullpen. This guy still has value, it would be a shame to let him go before we've really given him a shot.
Now come the sacrificial lambs. The biggest mistake Andy MacPhail made this offseason was not offering Daniel Cabrera arbitration. He would've given the team more than 170 innings and probably would have been better than any of the guys we have in camp.
So in lieu of Cabrera, Adam Eaton and Mark Hendrickson fit the bill. These guys have the best shot at remaining effective enough in the rotation that they will last 2 months or more on the front lines. If they can hang in there, Rich Hill may return and be effective, Brad Bergesen and\or David Hernandez may tear up AAA and earn a promotion...these guys are there to buy the club some time until better options are ready. I think they can do it, at least as well as Garrett Olson and Radhames Liz did last season.
Brian Bass is a Brian Burress type, best when utilized as a swingman out of the bullpen and that's a best case scenario.
Quick quiz: When was the last time Alfredo Simon posted an ERA less than 6.00 at any level of professional baseball? That was in AA in 2005 when he posted a 5.03 ERA. I've refrained from bashing the guy since I've said repeatedly that the rotation's theme for 2009 should be "We take anybody." But this guy doesn't belong on anyone's radar for a major league job, not even the Orioles. He hasn't even had fluky Luis Hernandez success on any level. Cut him.
So the starting rotation for the Baltimore Orioles on April 6th should be:
Guthrie
Uehara
Eaton
Hendrickson
Penn
Anything else at this point wouldn't make a lot of sense.
Monday, February 2, 2009
The Crystal Ball '09: The Rotation
After Jeremy Guthrie and Koji Uehara, the rest of the starting rotation for your 2009 Baltimore Orioles is a mystery. I still expect the Orioles to pick up a veteran starter to stick in the 3 spot in the rotation but for now, here are the most likely candidates to fill the three available spots.
Hayden Penn – Penn is going to get a fair shot at the starting rotation this season and I feel OK about that. Why? Outside of the top two spots, I’m not sure there’s anyone better suited for the job. He's probably the most talented guy on the list and he has had success at AAA, he just needs to stay healthy and get some major league innings under his belt.
Second, Penn had very good numbers when it comes to inducing groundballs. He induced grounders at a 48% rate in Norfolk and if you don’t include his shaky April, the rest of the year it was somewhere around 53%. That’s good. Why were his overall numbers so bad then? First, he didn’t strike out a lot of guys. Second, his infield was….well, let’s just say that there weren’t many plus defenders in that Norfolk infield. If Penn is getting grounders at a 50% rate in Baltimore, having Brian Roberts and Cesar Izturis behind him will serve him well. And as long as he keeps it in the park, the young outfield should be able to run down a lot of his mistakes. Penn only walked guys at about a 3 per 9 rate. If he can stay healthy long enough, he could become a valuable player in the rotation for ’09 and ’10.
Chris Waters – Waters is getting overlooked as a starter in ’09 but his rate stats from last season were only surpassed by Daniel Cabrera and Jeremy Guthrie last season. He found ways to get by with really limited stuff. He famously debuted pitching 8 innings of one-hit ball and later in the season pitched a complete game shutout in Toronto. He took his share of beatings but pitched into the 5th inning everytime and often pitched into the 6th or 7th. He’s a good candidate for a 5th starter, an innings eater who can cherry-pick some wins at the back of the rotation.
Mark Hendrickson - I've talked about what I expect from Hendrickson here.
Radhames Liz – He may not ultimately be a starter but he’ll be forced to be one this year, at least early. He's a flyball pitcher, not a good fit for OPACY unless his strikeouts dramatically increase and his walks come down. It would be nice if he could work out these issues in the bullpen but the Orioles probably won’t have that luxury. With a little luck, other candidates for the rotation will develop enough that he’s a reliever after the All-Star break.
David Pauley – Pauley is an interesting candidate. Coming over in a trade from the Red Sox for RP Randor Bierd, he has solid AAA numbers. He’s a groundball pitcher and induces a lot of pop-ups. His strikeout numbers in AAA were respectable too. At worst, he could be an innings eater. At best, he improves to be an league average starter in the second half?
Brad Hennesey/Brian Burress – A pair of soft-tossing waiver claims from the Giants organization.
Burress has shown a tendency to issue free passes and, when he finds the plate, serve up big home runs. Only a marked unexpected improvement in those tendencies or massive injuries to the rotation keep him on this team in 2009 (He was equally bad out of the bullpen in ’08).
Hennesey could be a sleeper. His former first-round draftee status has some comparing him to Jeremy Guthrie. I don’t see it. He’s never struck out batters at a very good rate, walks batters at an average rate and doesn’t induce enough ground balls to offset his mediocrity in those two categories. I suppose a change of scenery may help him but he’s a longshot.
Troy Patton/Matt Albers – Going into Spring Training 2008, I thought Patton had the best shot of any of the youngsters at cracking the starting rotation. As injuries mounted in the rotation, I thought Albers was best suited to move from the ‘pen and grab a spot as a starter. Why do I lump them together? They both suffered rotator cuff injuries before they could seize their respective opportunities. Patton underwent surgery, Albers opted for rehab. Both are now big question marks. If either are able to start a significant number of games in 2009, it will be gravy.
Hey, let’s not kid ourselves, this ain’t pretty. Guys like Brian Matusz, David Hernandez, Chris Tillman and Brad Bergensen are not going to show up in Baltimore until the second half of ’09 at the earliest. This list is what we’ve got to work with for the first few months of the season. There’s guys to dream on or root for but realistically the Orioles will be insanely lucky if one of these guys breaks out and put a choke hold on one of the spots in the ’09 Oriole rotation.
It's going to be a rough year for the putching staff...
Friday, August 15, 2008
Base Hits: 8/15/2008
Wow! Busy week at work. Where has the week gone? But I figured I'd check in for Friday...
*****
It's hard to get real excited over a player like Lou Montanez (at least his upside) but it's hard not to like the guy. Hey, it's rare but late bloomers do happen in baseball. See Howard Johnson. Or Jeremy Guthrie.
*****
You know, this whole Hayden Penn thing is a real drag. Every time he looks like he's about to get a break, he suffers another injury.
I'm still rooting for the guy but the truth is that he hasn't been the same pitcher since he had surgery to remove bone spurs in his elbow in May of 2007. Look at his numbers in the minors since his fantastic 2006 run at AAA.
*****
One year ago, I was biting my nails and prepping a scathing post attacking the Oriole front office and Peter Angelos for failing to sign Matt Wieters. This year, I have no such angst.
I actually have confidence that the Orioles will sign their top pick Brian Matusz before the mid night deadline. Apparently, so does everyone else:
Eric (Albany): Only 3 of the Top 10 picks have signed....of the 7 left how many don't reach an agreement?
Jim Callis: I did an Ask BA on this that you can check out at baseballamerica.com, too. I think of the 11 unsigned first-rounders, 10 eventually will sign. Allan Dykstra's hip condition worries the Padres, so that deal might not get done. As for the rest of the guys, we're in the rhetoric stage where the clubs say they have to be financially realistic and the players say they really will consider going back to school. Don't buy it, I think they'll all sign.
+++
Peter Schmuck: Matusz was in Baltimore yesterday for a physical, so it's down to the final dollar figure and roster conditions. Since I don't believe the kid is going to leave several million dollars on the table and risk his valuable arm on another college season, I'm pretty confident something will be announced late this afternoon. Hope they don't make us sweat it out all night.
++++
Roch Kubatko: It will be a major shock if the sides reach an agreement late tonight and Matusz's signature winds up on a contract. But it's expected to happen tomorrow before the midnight deadline. Both sides sound very confident.
I feel much better than I did last year. I hope my trust is not misplaced.
*****
Grimace(s) of the Day:
*****
Aubrey Huff clears waivers. Hurry up and trade him before he remembers he's Aubrey Huff and not the second coming of Boog Powell.
Also clearing waivers were Kevin Millar, Jay Payton and Jamie Walker. You've got to trade walker for anything decent. If the O's have one area of depth, it's the bullpen. Jay Payton could actually be a useful right-handed bat off the bench for a contender. Ditto for Millar.
*****
The creator of Orioles blog Weaver's Tantrum, Desert O aka Dave aka Vegas has now hiked more than 1500 miles from from Georgia to Massachusetts. I encourage all in the oriole blogosphere to head over to his other blog, A Bite of the Appalachian, and post some words of encouragement. (BTW, it's a fascinating read...)
*****
Song of the Week:
Sticking with Chicago-based bands from the early-90's, Urge Overkill with "View of the Rain". Later...
*****
It's hard to get real excited over a player like Lou Montanez (at least his upside) but it's hard not to like the guy. Hey, it's rare but late bloomers do happen in baseball. See Howard Johnson. Or Jeremy Guthrie.
*****
You know, this whole Hayden Penn thing is a real drag. Every time he looks like he's about to get a break, he suffers another injury.
I'm still rooting for the guy but the truth is that he hasn't been the same pitcher since he had surgery to remove bone spurs in his elbow in May of 2007. Look at his numbers in the minors since his fantastic 2006 run at AAA.
*****
One year ago, I was biting my nails and prepping a scathing post attacking the Oriole front office and Peter Angelos for failing to sign Matt Wieters. This year, I have no such angst.
I actually have confidence that the Orioles will sign their top pick Brian Matusz before the mid night deadline. Apparently, so does everyone else:
Eric (Albany): Only 3 of the Top 10 picks have signed....of the 7 left how many don't reach an agreement?
Jim Callis: I did an Ask BA on this that you can check out at baseballamerica.com, too. I think of the 11 unsigned first-rounders, 10 eventually will sign. Allan Dykstra's hip condition worries the Padres, so that deal might not get done. As for the rest of the guys, we're in the rhetoric stage where the clubs say they have to be financially realistic and the players say they really will consider going back to school. Don't buy it, I think they'll all sign.
+++
Peter Schmuck: Matusz was in Baltimore yesterday for a physical, so it's down to the final dollar figure and roster conditions. Since I don't believe the kid is going to leave several million dollars on the table and risk his valuable arm on another college season, I'm pretty confident something will be announced late this afternoon. Hope they don't make us sweat it out all night.
++++
Roch Kubatko: It will be a major shock if the sides reach an agreement late tonight and Matusz's signature winds up on a contract. But it's expected to happen tomorrow before the midnight deadline. Both sides sound very confident.
I feel much better than I did last year. I hope my trust is not misplaced.
*****
Grimace(s) of the Day:
The collected grimaces of Shin-Soo Choo, Franklin Gutierrez and Jamey Carroll after the Orioles score 8 runs in the 8th last night.
*****
Aubrey Huff clears waivers. Hurry up and trade him before he remembers he's Aubrey Huff and not the second coming of Boog Powell.
Also clearing waivers were Kevin Millar, Jay Payton and Jamie Walker. You've got to trade walker for anything decent. If the O's have one area of depth, it's the bullpen. Jay Payton could actually be a useful right-handed bat off the bench for a contender. Ditto for Millar.
*****
The creator of Orioles blog Weaver's Tantrum, Desert O aka Dave aka Vegas has now hiked more than 1500 miles from from Georgia to Massachusetts. I encourage all in the oriole blogosphere to head over to his other blog, A Bite of the Appalachian, and post some words of encouragement. (BTW, it's a fascinating read...)
*****
Song of the Week:
Sticking with Chicago-based bands from the early-90's, Urge Overkill with "View of the Rain". Later...
Friday, March 14, 2008
Base Hits: 3/14/2008
It's kind of ironic that the Orioles are hoping that Luis Hernandez becomes a modern day Mark Belanger because on Thursday they squared off against a guy who actually is the modern day Mark Belanger.
His name is Adam Everett and the Orioles are indirectly responsible for him being on the Twins roster in the first place. Everett has been the best defensive shortstop in the National League (perhaps in all of baseball) for several years but the Astros found him expendable once they acquired Miguel Tejada from the Orioles this offseason. The Astros cut him loose, the Twins signed him for peanuts and the O's are struggling to find a viable option at short.
Everett would have been a great fit with Baltimore but I guess they thought he wasn't $1.6 million better than Hernandez. Unfortunately, it looks like they may have been wrong...
*****
I can't say enough about what a great resource BaseballReference.com is, especially their Play Index feature (requires subscription). Weaver's Tantrum has sponsored the Adam Loewen page for 2008. I sponsored the Brian Burres page last year (hey, it was cheap) and haven't picked out the Oriole I want to sponsor this year. I encourage everyone to go take a look at the site and sponsor something to help support those guys.
*****Speaking of Loewen, John Sickels over at Minor League Ball gives us some thoughts on Adam Loewen. He is concerned about injuries for Loewen but also says he compares very favorably to Al Leiter. I think we'll take that kind of career from Loewen anyday.
edit: Looks like they're going to shut down Loewen for at least one start. Tightness in the shoulder. Uh-oh. Weaver's Tantrum has some thoughts.
*****
The Wayward O has an entertaining series of posts that look at each MLB division and gives a predicted order of finish.
*****
Hayden Penn has been sent to back to minor league camp. Penn is coming off of injury and looked plenty rusty during his play on the Arizona Fall League (although he did manage to lead the league in strikeouts) but looked pretty sharp this spring. With Troy Patton out for the season, he looked like a legitimate candidate to make the team.
Unlike last season, I think Penn needs a month or two of healthy pitching back in Norfolk before returning to the big club, just to tune up a bit. If healthy, I'd like to see him get a long look this summer.
*****
Scouts watching the Astros this spring are saying that Tejada is playing a woeful shortstop and they don't think he will be manning that position by season's end.
Monday, December 24, 2007
Where Are They Now?: The 2002 Oriole Draftees
It's now been over 5 years since the 2002 draft and now it's time to check in to see...Where Are They Now!
1st Round - Adam Loewen - P - High School
It's early but so far this pick is right on schedule. The kid will be 24 next season and, if healthy, should be right there helping to anchor the rotation. Even while pitching through an injury early last season, Loewen performed well. So far, great pick.
2nd Round - Corey Shafer - C - High School
Shafer was quickly converted to an outfielder but hasn't distinguished himself in the minors, only rising as high as Class A Frederick. He did not play last year but I don't know whether that was due to injury or if he's been released. Not good either way.
3rd Round - Val Majewski - OF - Rutgers University
Majewski was on a fast track to the majors as of 2004 when he hit .307 with 15 homers at AA Bowie. Unfortunately, he tore the labrumin his left shoulder and missed all of 2005 due to injury. He has yet to regain his stroke and this season in Norfolk is probably his last chance to secure a future in this organization. So far, this is a push. there is no predicting injury.
4th Round - Tim Gilhooly - OF - University of the Pacific
Gilhooly never rose above low-A Aberdeen and last played in the organization in 2003 hitting .203 for his minor league career. Out of baseball.
5th Round - Hayden Penn - P - High School
Penn rocketed through the organization reaching Baltimore in only two years but still has yet to put it all together. He battled injury last season but has proven he can miss AAA bats. If healthy this year, he can restore his status in Norfolk and perhaps join the rotation in 2008. A push for now but good value for the 5th round.
1st Round - Adam Loewen - P - High School
It's early but so far this pick is right on schedule. The kid will be 24 next season and, if healthy, should be right there helping to anchor the rotation. Even while pitching through an injury early last season, Loewen performed well. So far, great pick.
2nd Round - Corey Shafer - C - High School
Shafer was quickly converted to an outfielder but hasn't distinguished himself in the minors, only rising as high as Class A Frederick. He did not play last year but I don't know whether that was due to injury or if he's been released. Not good either way.
3rd Round - Val Majewski - OF - Rutgers University
Majewski was on a fast track to the majors as of 2004 when he hit .307 with 15 homers at AA Bowie. Unfortunately, he tore the labrumin his left shoulder and missed all of 2005 due to injury. He has yet to regain his stroke and this season in Norfolk is probably his last chance to secure a future in this organization. So far, this is a push. there is no predicting injury.
4th Round - Tim Gilhooly - OF - University of the Pacific
Gilhooly never rose above low-A Aberdeen and last played in the organization in 2003 hitting .203 for his minor league career. Out of baseball.
5th Round - Hayden Penn - P - High School
Penn rocketed through the organization reaching Baltimore in only two years but still has yet to put it all together. He battled injury last season but has proven he can miss AAA bats. If healthy this year, he can restore his status in Norfolk and perhaps join the rotation in 2008. A push for now but good value for the 5th round.
6th Round - John Maine - P - UNC Charlotte
Maine was traded with Jorge Julio for Kris Benson prior to the 2006 season. Although he has enjoyed some modest success in New York, I have gone on record stating that it's all smoke and mirrors or more accurately all pitcher's park and stellar defense behind him. Anyway, I still think Maine may have projected as a serviceable long reliever for the O's and he was traded for a legitimate (if injured) major league pitcher. A good pick.
7th Round - Paul Henry - P - Ball State
Henry never had any success above low-A ball. Out of baseball.
8th Round - Ryan Hubele - C - Texas
Hubele spent most of the season at Bowie last year and may get a shot at holding a job in Norfolk this season. But at 27 with a career batting average of .248 in the minors, it is unlikely that Hubele will ever be a decent backup catcher in the majors.
9th Round - Trevor Caughey - P - High School
Caughey posted a 4.62 ERA over 5 seasons in the low minors. Out of baseball.
10th Round - Matt Boland - P - High School
Boland never made it out of the Gulf Coast League. Out of baseball.
It's too soon to really do a good assessment of this draft but with Orioles drafts during the Angelos years there isn't even glimpses of hope left among the top picks. Adam Loewen and Hayden Penn are pretty good prospects and poised to help this team in the near future. 12th round pick Brandon Fahey may turn out to be a serviceable utility player at the major league level. Compared to most drafts I've examined over the last year, this one isn't half bad.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Base Hits: 10/25/2007
First a question: Would any O's fans be interested in bringing back Mike Mussina next season? Would he be able to fill in as a 4th starter so that some of the young guys could continue to develop in the minors? Just asking.
*****
Andy Etchebarren, manager of the Aberdeen Ironbirds, was dismissed yesterday. He joins Bowie manager Bien Figueroa, minor league pitching coordinator Doc Watson and roving infield instructor Tom Lawless on the scrapheap. I'm all for this, the problems within the organization are multifold and you need to purge the minor leagues and start building from the bottom up.
I can't neglect to give Etchebarren his proper send-off from the organization. He was an old-time Oriole catcher from the mid-60's to mid-70's. He wasn't a great offensive threat but he was a Yankee killer, hitting .270 and hit 10 of his 58 career homers against New York. He also single handedly beat the Tigers once in 1970 by launching a homer and driving in 6 in a 10-2 win.
So maybe he wasn't much of a coach but he was a heck of a player in his day.
*****
Hayden Penn pitched three innings last night for the Phoenix Devil Dogs gave up two runs but only walked 1 and struck out 6. Only one ball was sharply hit so most of the damage came on bunts and bloop singles. It was an encouraging start for Penn who has been rocked thus far in the AFL. Over 6 innings in relief, the Dogs pen could only strike out 2 more batters so it wasn't like this was a free swinging bunch. The 6 K's were very impressive against what was essentially a minor league all-star team.
*****
Note to Dave Trembley: Given the inability of the Orioles to attract free agents and the lack of talent in the minors, consider looking back to Earl Weaver and finding some players to platoon in some positions. LF, CF, 1B and maybe 3B would all be candidates. I'll be thinking of some options...
*****
Andy Etchebarren, manager of the Aberdeen Ironbirds, was dismissed yesterday. He joins Bowie manager Bien Figueroa, minor league pitching coordinator Doc Watson and roving infield instructor Tom Lawless on the scrapheap. I'm all for this, the problems within the organization are multifold and you need to purge the minor leagues and start building from the bottom up.
I can't neglect to give Etchebarren his proper send-off from the organization. He was an old-time Oriole catcher from the mid-60's to mid-70's. He wasn't a great offensive threat but he was a Yankee killer, hitting .270 and hit 10 of his 58 career homers against New York. He also single handedly beat the Tigers once in 1970 by launching a homer and driving in 6 in a 10-2 win.
So maybe he wasn't much of a coach but he was a heck of a player in his day.
*****
Hayden Penn pitched three innings last night for the Phoenix Devil Dogs gave up two runs but only walked 1 and struck out 6. Only one ball was sharply hit so most of the damage came on bunts and bloop singles. It was an encouraging start for Penn who has been rocked thus far in the AFL. Over 6 innings in relief, the Dogs pen could only strike out 2 more batters so it wasn't like this was a free swinging bunch. The 6 K's were very impressive against what was essentially a minor league all-star team.
*****
Note to Dave Trembley: Given the inability of the Orioles to attract free agents and the lack of talent in the minors, consider looking back to Earl Weaver and finding some players to platoon in some positions. LF, CF, 1B and maybe 3B would all be candidates. I'll be thinking of some options...
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
Base Hits: 8/1/2007
The Wayward Oriole points out quite correctly that Dave Trembley bears a striking resemblence to William Shatner.
***
Hayden Penn is pitching rehab down in the Gulf Coast League. Don't forget about this guy. As impressive as Garrett Olsen's numbers look at AAA (9-6, 2.95 ERA in 20 games), Penn's numbers were even better last year (7-4, 2.26 in 14 games).
***
Ben over at Oriole Central covers the lack of movement at the trading deadline, Dave Trembley and his fixation with Mark Teixera.
***
I can't believe I'm doing this but I'm going to quote an Amber Theoharis article and I won't unmercifully mock it. From her column in PresboxOnline.com:
Here's a deep thought out of the mouth of a Yankees scout: Many hitters in the American League say Daniel Cabrera has some of the nastiest stuff when he's on. The problem is he can't always repeat that "stuff" inning after inning and start after start. If that's the case, why isn't he a closer?
Pause here. There isn't supposed to be any retorts in "Deep Thoughts," but there needs to be a voice of reason here. Cabrera is 25 years old. That's it. The man didn't pick up a baseball until he was 16. He's 6-foot-9 after growing two inches in the offseason. Cabrera is still getting used to his own body. Plus, in most of his starts this year, he has gone more than six innings. The Orioles would be crazy to cease grooming him as a starter this early in his career. Maybe in 10 years Cabrera will be a closer, not now.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
***
Also from Press Box, Phil Jackman's On The Other Hand column:
It seems a tad hypocritical for WBAL Radio to complain about not being allowed to play tapes of Cal Ripken career milestones leading up to Cooperstown by the current rights holder (CBS Radio) when it pulled a similar stunt last football season.
Outstanding point.
***
Hayden Penn is pitching rehab down in the Gulf Coast League. Don't forget about this guy. As impressive as Garrett Olsen's numbers look at AAA (9-6, 2.95 ERA in 20 games), Penn's numbers were even better last year (7-4, 2.26 in 14 games).
***
Ben over at Oriole Central covers the lack of movement at the trading deadline, Dave Trembley and his fixation with Mark Teixera.
***
I can't believe I'm doing this but I'm going to quote an Amber Theoharis article and I won't unmercifully mock it. From her column in PresboxOnline.com:
Here's a deep thought out of the mouth of a Yankees scout: Many hitters in the American League say Daniel Cabrera has some of the nastiest stuff when he's on. The problem is he can't always repeat that "stuff" inning after inning and start after start. If that's the case, why isn't he a closer?
Pause here. There isn't supposed to be any retorts in "Deep Thoughts," but there needs to be a voice of reason here. Cabrera is 25 years old. That's it. The man didn't pick up a baseball until he was 16. He's 6-foot-9 after growing two inches in the offseason. Cabrera is still getting used to his own body. Plus, in most of his starts this year, he has gone more than six innings. The Orioles would be crazy to cease grooming him as a starter this early in his career. Maybe in 10 years Cabrera will be a closer, not now.
Couldn't have said it better myself.
***
Also from Press Box, Phil Jackman's On The Other Hand column:
It seems a tad hypocritical for WBAL Radio to complain about not being allowed to play tapes of Cal Ripken career milestones leading up to Cooperstown by the current rights holder (CBS Radio) when it pulled a similar stunt last football season.
Outstanding point.
***
Haven't posted a WPA graph in awhile. Here's last night's game, courtesy of FanGraphs:
Erik Bedard was the WPA leaders for pitchers, Brian Roberts for batters...
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Minor League Roundup
Norfolk Tides
The Tides are a mediocre 3-5 so far...
J. R. House has been laying waste to AAA pitching for the first two weeks of the season, hitting .353 with 2 homers and OPSing a whopping .983.
Their best pitcher, Jim Johnson, has been dominant over two starts posting a 1.80 ERA, and 7K's against 2 BB. Hayden Penn is listed as being on the DL.
Bowie Baysox
The mighty Baysox are 5-4.
The monster with the bat here in Bowie is Nolan Reimold. Nolan is crushing the ball with a .367 average and more importantly 3 homeruns and posting an OPS of 1.157. The only troubling stat is 7 K's to 1 BB but it's not horrible for 9 games.
Lefty Oscar Alvarez is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA over the first two weeks. More significantly Jim Hoey has 3 saves in three appearances and 5 Ks over 3 IP. Impressive. He'll be in Norfolk before long and I imagine we'll see him in Baltimore again before the season's done.
Frederick Keys
The Keys are a stinky 2-5.
The bright spot on offense is speedster 2B Jonathan Tucker who is hitting .393 with 4 SB .
Top prospect RHP Brandon Erbe is sporting a 2.25 ERA but a slightly troubling 6BB vs 5Ks thus far.
Delmarva Shorebirds
The Shorebirds are struggling with a 3-7 record.
On offense, 22 year old Brandon Tripp is hitting .378 while posting an OPS 1.047 with 1 HR.
Yet another top pitching prospect is 20 yr old Pedro Beato who has rung up 10K's in 10IP with a 3.60 ERA.
Jeff Moore 1.80 9K's over 10
The Tides are a mediocre 3-5 so far...
J. R. House has been laying waste to AAA pitching for the first two weeks of the season, hitting .353 with 2 homers and OPSing a whopping .983.
Their best pitcher, Jim Johnson, has been dominant over two starts posting a 1.80 ERA, and 7K's against 2 BB. Hayden Penn is listed as being on the DL.
Bowie Baysox
The mighty Baysox are 5-4.
The monster with the bat here in Bowie is Nolan Reimold. Nolan is crushing the ball with a .367 average and more importantly 3 homeruns and posting an OPS of 1.157. The only troubling stat is 7 K's to 1 BB but it's not horrible for 9 games.
Lefty Oscar Alvarez is 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA over the first two weeks. More significantly Jim Hoey has 3 saves in three appearances and 5 Ks over 3 IP. Impressive. He'll be in Norfolk before long and I imagine we'll see him in Baltimore again before the season's done.
Frederick Keys
The Keys are a stinky 2-5.
The bright spot on offense is speedster 2B Jonathan Tucker who is hitting .393 with 4 SB .
Top prospect RHP Brandon Erbe is sporting a 2.25 ERA but a slightly troubling 6BB vs 5Ks thus far.
Delmarva Shorebirds
The Shorebirds are struggling with a 3-7 record.
On offense, 22 year old Brandon Tripp is hitting .378 while posting an OPS 1.047 with 1 HR.
Yet another top pitching prospect is 20 yr old Pedro Beato who has rung up 10K's in 10IP with a 3.60 ERA.
Jeff Moore 1.80 9K's over 10
Sunday, March 25, 2007
Random Thoughts From The Weekend
Erik Bedard struck out these batters is succession Friday: David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, J.D. Drew, Mike Lowell and Jason Varitek. Not too shabby.
Which player has looked more decrepit this spring: Jason Varitek or Kevin Millar? Neither was hitting .100 this spring. But both had RBI extra-base hits on Friday: Millar an RBI double off Curt Schilling and Varitek a solo homerun off of Bedard.
I've been gone for seven years from Maryland. I wonder if they still sell Natty Bo? (edit: It appears that they do. Pabst brews it now.)
Hayden Penn didn't give up a run on Saturday agains the Mets but 4 walks and no K's in 4 innings isn't too impressive. The Tides now know who their ace will be this year. Kurt Birkins looked real sharp over two innings as well, striking out three. The relief corp in Norfolk will be formidable.
Daniel Cabrera looked shaky but the results were good. Expect to repeat this phrase most of the year.
Jaret Wright did not look good today. Neither did Todd Williams. Fortunately, the rest of the pitchers (Guthrie, Bradford, Walker and Parrish) did. O's edge the Cards 6-5 in 10. Nice to see some of the Baltimore regulars get some timely hits.
I LOVE that Carl Pavano is going to be the Yanks Opening Day pitcher. Love it. Can't wait for Baltimore to face him.
Which player has looked more decrepit this spring: Jason Varitek or Kevin Millar? Neither was hitting .100 this spring. But both had RBI extra-base hits on Friday: Millar an RBI double off Curt Schilling and Varitek a solo homerun off of Bedard.
I've been gone for seven years from Maryland. I wonder if they still sell Natty Bo? (edit: It appears that they do. Pabst brews it now.)
Hayden Penn didn't give up a run on Saturday agains the Mets but 4 walks and no K's in 4 innings isn't too impressive. The Tides now know who their ace will be this year. Kurt Birkins looked real sharp over two innings as well, striking out three. The relief corp in Norfolk will be formidable.
Daniel Cabrera looked shaky but the results were good. Expect to repeat this phrase most of the year.
Jaret Wright did not look good today. Neither did Todd Williams. Fortunately, the rest of the pitchers (Guthrie, Bradford, Walker and Parrish) did. O's edge the Cards 6-5 in 10. Nice to see some of the Baltimore regulars get some timely hits.
I LOVE that Carl Pavano is going to be the Yanks Opening Day pitcher. Love it. Can't wait for Baltimore to face him.
Penn, Fahey, Burkins Optioned to Norfolk
In my previous post, I mentioned Hayden Penn had better get used to the idea of Norfolk and today he and 4 others were sent there.
Joining him were Brandon Fahey (a longshot to make the club even if he had hit well), Rob Bell (sporting a sub-1.00 ERA this spring), Kurt Birkins and Jon Leicester.
Penn didn't pitch badly this spring but didn't knock anyone's socks off either. With the emergence of Jeremy Guthrie as a long man candidate didn't help Penn's case either. It's nice that the club doesn't have to rush him and he will go take care of business in Norfolk. We'll see him Baltimore, in some capacity, this season.
Kurt Birkins had a nice spring and it's a but surprising to see the lefty reliever sent down at this point. The club has floated the idea of carrying 13 pitchers and Birkins would've been thought to be in the mix as a second lefty (behind Jamie Walker) out of the pen. Looks like that will be Todd Williams domain. (shudder...)
Brandon Fahey would've needed some injuries in front of him to get a spot this year. Rob Bell pitched great this spring but was a real long shot given his abysmal performance over the course of his major league career. Jon Leicester was basically signed for depth and was expected to go the Norfolk all along.
Keep your head up Hayden, they'll be calling you up before you know it.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)