Guest Post on MASNSports.com: Orioles Bullpen has been a Money Pit

Another guest post on MASNSports.com, this one about the futility of fixing a bullpen with expensive free agents. Enjoy.

Koji Uehara Staying Put

Koji Uehara has agreed to return to the Baltimore Orioles on a one year, incentive laden deal for $3 million and the chance to earn up to $2 million more. There is also a vesting option for 2012.

I was critical of The Warehouse for not offering Uehara arbitration since there was reportedly interest from other teams and the Orioles seemed to want him back. However, Andy MacPhail read the situation correctly, gambled and won. Uehara comes back for less than he would have made in arbitration even though there were other teams interested in his services.

As The Oriole Way pointed out, even with the injuries and the shift back to the bullpen, Koji was worth every penny of the $10 million the Orioles just paid him. His stat lines over the past two seasons:

          IP    K   BB   HR   ERA   FIP   W-L   K/BB
Uehara  110.2  103  17   12  3.58  3.10   3-6   6.06

That's pretty damn good and if he does anything along these numbers again, he'll be a fantastic bargain.

And I'm not even including the sideburns.

When Does Rick Kranitz Start Feeling the Heat?

Just a quick thought...

Lots has been written about the failures of Oriole hitting coach Terry Crowley over the past few years.

But why is the Oriole pitching coach seemingly immune from such criticism?

The Oriole pitching staff has an ERA of 5.33, the worst in the American League. This is not new. Baltimore also had the worst AL ERA in 2009 and the second worst ERA in 2008. Kranitz has presided over the pitching staff for all three seasons.

Want to look at the advanced stats? They are and have been dead last in the league in FIP and xFIP over the past three seasons as well.

It's not as if Kranitz has had absolutely nothing to work with. There have been some young arms come to Baltimore that are highly regarded. Thus far, none of them look ready to take the next step. Chris Tillman looked completely lost last night. Ditto with (at times) Brian Matusz.

And over the past three seasons, Kranitz has failed to assemble any semblance of a bullpen. That's what good pitching coaches do...they take marginal pitchers and/or kids from AAA and teach them how to pitch for an inning or two. There are guys in this system with the stuff to be good relievers...but for some reason they never seem to develop.

So...either lots of independent scouts and analysts were dead wrong about a lot of Oriole talent or the organization is doing a poor job of developing that talent for the major league level. I think Kranitz has to take some heat for that.

Bullpen Management in Microcosm

Last night, Dave Trembley let Brad Bergesen work into the 8th. After two straight singles, he lifted Brad Bergesen for Jason Berken. Here's what happened next:

"I don't think the pitch count enters into it," Trembley said of removing Bergesen. "He had retired that many, he had a long inning to sit after the seventh. You certainly don't want to put him in a situation where he's going to lose the game. He's pitched so well."

Right-hander Jason Berken entered and immediately picked up a flyout. Trembley then replaced Berken with left-hander Hendrickson to face consecutive left-handed hitters, Daric Barton and Ryan Sweeney...

"I think you're going to go left vs. left there. I think that's really what you're going to do," Trembley said. "Berken hasn't faced these guys a lot. Their two best hitters are their two lefties right there. … Berken's a fly-ball pitcher. You don't want Berken to give up a home run there. He's never been in that situation before. Hendrickson has. He did a nice job the other night in the same role. That's the decision that was made."

What followed was a debacle as Hendrickson and Cla Meredith combined to blow a 5-2 lead and the Orioles lost the game.

Lifting Bergesen after the two singles? OK. You can second guess that but if Bergey gives up a three-run homer to the next batter, Trembley's getting crucified. And to some extent, I understand that Trembley is trying to limit the psychic damage to a young pitcher. That decision is fine.

But lifting Berken after one batter faced? Berken is your "long man" and, outside of Will Ohman, your most consistent performer out of the pen in 2010. He can certainly give you an inning. He's been sitting on the bench for 7 days...he's well rested. You could also make the argument that you put Berken out there for the two inning save and rest everybody else. And everybody else needs it.

But this would only be a blip if it was one game. Unfortunately, Trembley has been managing this way all season.

Will Ohman is on pace for 84 appearances, Matt Albers, 74 and Cla Meredith, 73. These are not Perlozzian levels of bullpen mismanagement but they are getting close. Meanwhile, Berken has just 12 appearances and we're closing in on Memorial Day. Why not let Berken pitch a little?

This is not how Trembley has managed his bullpens in the past. The work was a bit more evenly spread. I think the losing is messing with his head.

So it's probably time for him to go.

(As an aside, Brad Bergesen has been much improved since his return from Norfolk. 3-1, 4.26 ERA, averaging more than 6 innings a start. OK, 10 walks vs. 8 strikeouts is not good but when you are getting grounders on 67% of your balls put in play, you're certainly going to be in decent shape. This style isn't going to win you any Cy Young awards but Bergesen still looks like a fine back of the rotation starter to me.)

Young Starters, The Bullpen and Perspective

The losing streak is making people mental. Even the beat reporters. This is what Peter Schmuck wrote following Saturday's game:

Though I understand the logic of removing Brian Matusz from tonight's game after he allowed two baserunners in the seventh inning, I've reached the point -- and I bet Matusz agrees with me -- where I believe he deserves a chance to get out of that jam. Once again, a pitcher gets taken out because he hit the magic 100-pitch count, but I thought the idea was to make these guys go farther into the game.

The fact that Matusz walked a guy and gave up a hit doesn't mean that he's not the best guy to pitch to the next batter, especially when the O's bullpen has given Dave Trembley little reason to be confident that the game isn't about to blow up in his face -- as it did again tonight....

It isn't Trembley's fault that the bullpen can't nail down a game, but at some point he's going to have to find out if Matusz is good enough to get out of a late-inning jam. If not tonight, then when?

I'm not picking on Schmuck; others on the Orioles beat expressed similar sentiments if not so stridently. And I would expect this kind of emotional reaction from the fans.

But Pete, calm down.

I'm a big fan of the "one more batter" technique. A guy's approaching his "pitch limit" at the end of the 6th, let him come out for "one more batter" to see what happens. If he gets that guy out, let him face "one more batter". Continue until he gives up a solid hit or walks somebody. It stretches out the pitcher a bit but doesn't put the guy in a position to hurt the team if he's gassed.

Dave Trembley did that on Saturday. He brought Matusz back out for "one more batter" and Matusz walked him. Trembley left him out for "one more batter" again and gave up a hit. He gave Matusz the opportunity to work into the 7th and he didn't quite have it. Going to the bullpen at that point was not an incorrect decision...people just didn't like the outcome.*

But the real issue here is Matusz and his development. I will ALWAYS side with the philosophy that errs on the side of caution when it comes to developing young starters. There's just too much at stake in pushing a potential ace like Matusz too far, too fast.

What would the O's have gotten out of it if they had left Matusz out there for 120 pitches and won the game? Get to 3-15 instead of 2-16? Whoopee. That's worth a gamble? Uh, thanks but no thanks. It's that kind of short term thinking that has plagued the Orioles' player development for more than a decade and has gotten poor results more often than not.

I thought this team could (and may still) make a run at .500 but the reality is that they're not getting the breaks they need. And even that goal is not worth rushing prospects or pushing young arms before they're ready.

Let's not forget that.

*Of course, I don't get pitching Matt Albers two straight games when Jason Berken and Cla Meredith are rotting on the bench. Albers has been fine this season outside of two outings...both came after they tried pitching him on back-to-back days. There are other arms in the bullpen that seem underutilized.

The Truth Hurts...the White Sox!

Adam Jones. I call him The Truth. For one, he speaks it and for another...he just looks like The Truth on the ballfield.

Tonight he came through is the biggest of situations and had a walkoff single in the 10th driving in Kevin Millar for the winning run.

The O's are playing .500 ball over the past 6 games.

Anybody else sick of "Spanky" Huff yet? Could he come up smaller in big situations? According to Baseball-Reference.com, he's only hitting .125 in "clutch" situations and only .071 when the game is tied. Can't we unload this guy somewhere?

*****

I have to recommend a post from Oriole Central for the second straight day as Ben looks at the Orioles who hit "garbage homeruns" and correctly identifies Jay Gibbons as a guy who goes yard when it doesn't much matter to the outcome of the game.

I have to agree about Gibbons. I was going to (still am at some point) write a post about the five biggest hits of Gibbons career with the Orioles but was quite surprised to see how few dramatic moments Gibbons actually had to, say, Miguel Tejada. A slugger like Gibbons should make a little more impact on a game over the course of several years.

Anyway, Ben's post has given me an idea for a series on former O's and their clutch performances (or lack thereof). Look for more on that later.

*****


We are through 10% of the games. I decided to take a look at how hard our bullpen is being worked versus last season.

Walker 80 G, 43 IP
Bradford 70 G, 57 IP
Sherrill 60 G, 57 IP
Safarte, 60 G, 67 IP
Bierd, 50 G, 100 IP

Here's the pace the five main relievers were on when I blogged about the bullpen on May 3rd, 2007:

Baez - 81
Bradford - 91
Parrish - 81
Walker - 86
Ray - 81

I was afraid that the bullpen was on its way to burnout yet again but this year's pace looks to be a bit more sustainable.

*****
For this edition of Song of the Week, I'll be recommending three versions of one great song. Don't ever say you don't get your money's worth here at Dempsey's Army.

The song is called "Such Great Heights" originally written and performed by SubPop label band The Postal Service back in 2003.

Here it is:



Next, a live version of the song by the sporadically brilliant Ben Folds:



Finally, a way more laid back version by Iron and Wine.



Have a great weekend!


The Postal Service

Ben Folds

Iron and Wine

5 Things to Watch in Spring Training

Pitchers and catchers report today baseball fans! Here's five things I'll be watching during Spring Training.

1. The Bullpen Auditions

With the acquisition of George Sherrill, the bullpen now has three spots locked up. (Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford being the others.) That means Rule 5 draftee Randor Bierd, Rocky Cherry, Brian Burress, Kim Mickolio, Greg Aquino, Jim Hoey, Bob McCrory, Dennis Sarfate, maybe Esteban Yan and others will be involved in a Battle Royale for the last three or four spots in the bullpen. None of these guys could be any worse than the crew we had last season...I hope.

2. The Scott Moore Factor

Unless Scott Moore completely tanks in Ft. Lauderdale, he is gong to push for significant playing time and will possibly push some veteran right off the roster. But where will he play? If he shows a good glove at third, Melvin Mora will quickly find himself on the trading block. If the club gives him primary duties at first, Jay Gibbons won't get a chance to redeem himself this season.

3. The Young Arms

With Erik Bedard gone, there are two spots open at the back of the rotation for a young hurler to grab. (Let's not fool ourselves, if there are viable options among these rookies, Steve Trachsel is not going north. Not yet.) Troy Patton comes over from Houston with the best resumé. Garrett Olson, Matt Albers, Radhames Liz, and Jim Johnson will also get a look. Hayden Penn will have to prove he's healthy before he gets a real look.

4. The Least Repulsive Option At Shortstop

Luis Hernandez has a near lock on the shortstop job at this point but despite what happened last season, it's going to be ugly for him at the plate. That fact may open the door for Brandon Fahey should he swing the lumber this spring. If neither look good on offense, the play in the field may decide the case. If both look bad, it may get Freddie Bynum more playing time at short but I would expect him to still be a utility man.

5. The Battle for the Backup Backstop - Part II

Unfortunately for Oriole fans everywhere, Paul Bako beat out Rule V pick Adam Donachie for this honor last season.

There's nowhere to go but up at this point. Former top prospect Guillermo Quiroz has the inside track but he's hardly a lock as he tries to recapture some of his lost potential. Chris Heintz played sparingly in Minnesota last season but has hit .313 against lefties in his career. Former big leaguer Ben Davis will be trying to get his career back on track and there is always the smallest chance that Matt Wieters will be so impressive that he makes the team, splitting time with the incumbent Ramon Hernandez. A real dark horse is IF Mike Costanzo who the Orioles acquired in the Miguel Tejada trade from Houston. He has been invited to report with pitchers and catchers to work out at the catcher position.

The Crystal Ball '08: Jamie Walker

Jamie Walker certainly exceeded my expectations last year. An aging, flyball relief pitcher in Camden Yards? Not exactly a recipe for success. I predicted a disaster and Walker proved me wrong.

He led all AL relievers with 81 appearances while posting a 3.23 ERA. He and Chad Bradford were the anchors of a bullpen that could have been far, far worse, if you can imagine that. Walker did not see the increase in homeruns allowed that I expected and was very effective when the day was done.

There is nothing about Walker's numbers, outside of his ERA, that predict this kind of success. He's not a big strikeout guy, has only fair control and does not induce a lot of grounders. Still, he relies on that good slider to lefties and gets by on his marginal fastball and changeup against righties. And he's done it for many years. If you looked up "crafty lefty" in the dictionary, there would be a picture of Jamie Walker.

I am predicting that Walker will remain an effective pitcher but with a slight decline in performance in 2008. Think of maybe a 3.50 ERA.

Given his track record, I'd be crazy to bet against him.

Resetting Expectations

It's time to concede some things.

At the beginning of the season, I really thought the O's had the horses to contend this year. Perhaps these expectations were unrealistic but what can I say. I'm a fan.

Time to reconsider. While the O's could still finish as a .500 team this year, they will not contend.

Jaret Wright is hurt again and I fear that he will not give us any meaningful innings this season. I had him penciled in for 150 innings and while he is not a great pitcher, his loss leaves a gaping hole in the rotation as far as someone eating innings.

The bullpen has been great but is being overworked. It can't last at this rate of work. Adam Loewen is still learning and doesn't work deep into games. Only Erik Bedard and Daniel Cabrera have been able to work deep into games and only sporadically. Steve Trachsel has never been a big innings guy. He has exceeded expectations this year but it can't last.

The offense has been anemic. Yes, we just got Jay Payton and Ramon Hernandez back but that didn't help much during the Cleveland series. Our lineup has been mediocre at best and it tends to be feast or famine when it comes to scoring runs.

.500 is the realistic goal. Time to develop the young pitchers and hope for the best.