Bunting: Sacrifices versus Hits

I am often critical and dismissive of the bunt. I have the Earl Weaver quote on the front page of this blog for a reason. The bunt, by and large, is a give-up play and usually the payoff does not equal what it costs you.

I should clarify this stance though. And this article over at Beyond the Boxscore got me thinking about the one time I do like the bunt...when you're bunting for a hit.

As it turns out, the Orioles had two of the best players in the game when it came to bunting for hits: Adam Jones and Cesar Izturis.

Jones went 7 for 12 when bunting for hits (.583 hit percentage), leading all of baseball in bunt hit percentage and Izturis went 7 for 17 (.412 hit percentage), good for 10th. If you can drop bunts and get hits that often, you do it. Those guys can drop a bunt whenever they feel like it. (The article is really interesting, well worth reading all of it.)

However, Buck Showalter did show a tendency for using the bunt as a sacrifice play, more than I was comfortable with, to be honest. According to the 2011 Bill James Handbook, although the three Orioles managers were at the helm for about the same number of games, Showalter actually employed the sac bunt 13 times, more than Dave Trembley (10). But less than Juan Samuel (18).

These numbers are a bit higher from what Showalter has done in the past and perhaps with the additions of Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy, Buck won't feel so inclined to try to manufacture runs. I'd like to think so.

The Crystal Ball '11: Cesar Izturis

Cesar Izturis will be returning to Baltimore in 2011. Thankfully, he will not be the everyday option at shortstop as the Orioles inked him to a $1.5 million, one year deal. With incentives, the deal could net Izzy more than $2 mil for next season. He will serve as a utility infielder.

But just because he probably doesn't deserve a full time starting job doesn't mean he can't be a valuable asset. The asset he brings, obviously, is his glove.

For all MLB shortstops, UZR, UZR component stats and UZR/150 for the last three seasons:

Name             DPR    RngR    ErrR    UZR    UZR/150
Jimmy Rollins    1.3    10.3    12.7    24.4    10.5
J.J. Hardy      -3.5    21.3     3.5    21.4     9.1
Cesar Izturis   -1.6    14.1     8.8    21.3     8.7
Alex Gonzalez    3.4     3.1     6.4    12.8     7.0
Alexei Ramirez   1.6    11.6    -0.9    12.4     6.0
Elvis Andrus    -1.1    15.4    -2.0    12.2     6.7
Troy Tulowitzki  3.3    -4.8    11.0     9.5     3.7
Yunel Escobar   -2.6    10.8     0.9     9.1     3.4
Erick Aybar      2.1    11.3    -5.4     8.0     3.3

And the Total Zone with Location (TLZ) for all MLB shortstops for the last three season:

Name             TZL
Yunel Escobar   41.8
Cesar Izturis   30.1
J.J. Hardy      24.9
Marco Scutaro   19.9
Troy Tulowitzki 16.3
Hanley Ramirez  13.9
Jimmy Rollins   12.9
Michael Young   10.0
Edgar Renteria   7.8
Elvis Andrus     6.1

From these metrics you can see two things; first, that Izturis has been one of the top three fielding shortstops in baseball over the past three seasons. Arguably, you could rank him higher. Second, how about J. J. Hardy? He is Izzy's equal with the glove and is projected to be a league average hitter.

I'm sure Oriole fans find little comfort in Cesar's defensive wizardry since his bat is so bad. But even with the weak bat, Izturis still adds value. Not last year, when FanGraphs had him valued at -0.3 WAR but during an ordinary season, he's a valuable player.

His .545 OPS in 2010 was the lowest of his career and he still almost broke even in term of WAR when you factor in his glove. He was unlucky with his BABIP, even factoring in a slight decline in his Line Drive rate. He will never be a great hitter but even if he posts his career OPS of .618 in 2011, he could be worth 1.0 WAR as a full time player.

But fortunately, he will not be a full time player. He can fill in for an injured Hardy or Brian Roberts or be deployed against lefties versus whom he has a .639 career OPS.

He's not a difference maker by any means but Izturis and his glove should still be quite valuable in a backup role for Baltimore.

Orioles Are Switching It Up

Saw this on Twitter las night from CamdenRevival:

Wow, forgot the Orioles have four switch-hitters in the lineup. Though I wish two were named Murray & Singleton. #Orioles #that70sOsShow

Damn. He was right. I can't believe I missed that. Brian Roberts, Matt Wieters, Josh Bell and Cesar Izturis were all in the lineup. The first time it happened was August 3rd. Just over 14 years ago, to the day, was the last time the O's featured a quartet of switch hitters. (August 2, 1996)

Also pointed out by CamdenRevival, the four switch hitters appeared in consecutive spots in the batting order as it turned. Roberts was 1st, while Wieters, Bell and Izturis filled spots 7-9. That also happened for the first time on August 3rd and had never happened in Oriole history before.

How do I know all this? I posted this last season when it appeared that Wieters, Roberts, Izturis and Zaun might make up a quartet of switch hitters. But Izturis was hurt and Zaun got traded shortly after Wieters' call up from Norfolk.

This quartet will be short lived as Izturis will probably be gone after the season and there are no switch hitters in AAA. Although, the next guys are in Bowie and are both shortstops (Pedro Florimon and Greg Miclat) so maybe they'll be here sooner than we think.

5 Things To Watch - Spring Training 2010

It's that time again! 8 days until the first Spring Training workouts commence. Unlike previous years, many of the roster spots will be spoken for going into Sarasota but there will still be some things to look for, many of them holdover topics from previous years

1.  Chris Tillman - The rotation is pretty much set but comments from Dave Trembley and Tillman's struggles during his debut last season have left the door open. He's only 22 and if he doesn't look more like the Norfolk version of Tillman in Spring Training, he could find himself back in AAA to start the season. There's also an outside chance that David Hernandez figures out how to strike guys out in Sarasota and edges Tillman out. We know that Trembley likes to go with the hot hand in spring. See Alfredo Simon last season.

2.  The Bench - It's hard to believe that Ty Wigginton breaks camp with the team given his salary and his skill set. This opens the door for Michael Aubrey, Rhyne Hughes or Scott Moore (I have not given up on Moore yet...). And while Robert Andino showed a good glove last season, his bat makes Cesar Izturis look like Brian Roberts. Justin Turner in particular could earn a utility infield spot with a strong showing in Sarasota.

3.  Health - For all the happy talk about everyone being ready for Spring Training, there still has to be some concern with how Brad Bergesen, Nolan Reimold and, now, Will Ohman looks as they shake off the rust this March. For one, I will be shocked if Reimold plays any left field before March 15th. Koji Uehara needs to show he is back and can handle bullpen duty. Bergesen will have to show he feels good enough about his leg to pitch free and easy.

4.  The Battle for the Backup Backstop - This is my own pet subject and this year should be no less fascinating (at least for me). Trembley has already said he sees a good competition between Chad Moeller, Craig Tatum and Michael Hernandez. Sure, it's not earthshaking but it gives you something to watch during the late innings of those early Spring Training games.

5.  Shaking Out The Pen - Mike Gonazalez, Mark Hendrickson and Jim Johnson are near locks for three bullpen spots. The rest? Wide open. It's an interesting mix of veterans and kids. Matt Albers and Cla Meredith will try to retain their spots. Dennis Sarfate will try to force his way back in after being DFA'd this offseason. Kam Mickolio and Alberto Castillo will try to build on brief successes in 2009. Would-be rookie Josh Perrault is my dark horse candidate to make the bullpen in 2010. Can Uehara and Ohman stay healthy? Can Alfredo Simon relieve better than he started?

The Crystal Ball '10: Cesar Izturis

To go against the grain, I was going to take a closer look at Cesar Izturis' offensive game and try to come up with something of a silver lining to the dark cloud that is Izturis' bat.

As you might expect, I came up pretty dry on that front.

One thing that is encouraging though, is that after a rash of injuries to his hamstrings over the years, Izturis seems to have regained some of his speed. 8.2% of his hits were infield hits, he stole 12 bases in 114 games and a full 33% of his bunts attempts went for hits. The wheels are back and you'd like to think that if not for an appendectimy mid-season that he he would have stolen 20 bases.

Beyond that, there is no trend that points to any noticable change in Izturis' offensive output one way or another. He is a free-swinging, light-hitting, shortstop who adds little besides decent speed to the lineup.

So it's a good thing that he is possibly the best shortstop glove in the Majors.

Only the Cards' Brendan Ryan added more WAR with their glove than Izturis. Forgetting that Derek Jeter got the award for a second, Izturis turned in Gold Glove caliber defense by any metric you want to use. In fact, over the last two seasons Izturis has posted a 12.7 UZR/150 which leads the majors, well above the next guy (Jimmy Rollins at 8.8).

Besides, these young pitchers will need a guy like Izturis behind them this year. Forget about a reliable closer, a slick-fielding shortstop will do wonders for the psyche of a young pitcher battling for wins. Expect that support from Izturis and expect some timely stolen bases but anything he does at the plate will obviously be gravy. Izturis brings considerable value with the glove but that is all.


Photo by Keith Allison and used under the Creative Commons License 2.0

The Rotation, the WBC and a Man Named Eugene

A few thoughts from a weekend spent trapped indoors...

- The Netherlands pulled off a 3-2 upset win over the loaded Dominican Republic Team on Saturday and a couple former Orioles played a hand in the win. Sidney Ponson did not pitch that impressively but threw well enough to hold the D.R. hitters to 2 runs over 4 innings.

Former Oriole prospect Eugene Kingsdale went 2-4, scoring a run and playing a good rightfield. Kingsdale, now 32, still has very impressive speed.

- Miguel Tejada may no longer be an offensive force but he is still an underrated fielder. He looked particularly good at third for the D.R. on Saturday. (Tejada also hit a solo shot in the game...)

- I saw Mike Costanzo playing third for Team Italy on Saturday as well. Most scouts think he'll have to move off of third to play in the majors but he looked great to me. He was rangy and smooth out there. Admittedly, this is the first time I've ever seen him play. Maybe the throws to first are wild? Costanzo also went 1-4 with a double.

- Venezeula was starting the left side of the Oriole infield with Melvin Mora and Cesar Izturis. You got the feeling that this is not the first time they have played together. I suppose good chemistry is better than bad for the 3B-SS relationship. I wonder if Mora will play close to the line this year knowing that Izturis has better range than, say, Luis Hernandez?

- I'm a big fan of Scott Moore and he's tearing the cover off the ball in Spring Training for the second straight year. Can we find this guy a spot on the bench? Chris Gomez is hardly tearing it up. If a four man bench comes to fruition, I like Moore. We can always call up Gomez from Norfolk in case of injury...

- Andy MacPhail said that Wieters would have to hit .800 in Spring Training to head north with the team. He's currently hitting .471. I don't think he's going to make it.

- The rotation is beginning to take shape, if not by way in inclusion then by exclusion. Dave Trembley has said that Brad Hennesey and John Parrish have missed too much time to compete for a spot in the rotation. It's not as if these two had good shots to begin with but now we can move on to other candidates.

- Speaking of candidates, Mr. Reluctant went 3 2/3 scoreless against the Twins on Sunday. Many seem starkly opposed to Baez making the rotation but I have no problem whatsoever with him serving as cannon fodder during the first couple months of the season. Better that his psyche is damaged as opposed to David Hernandez and Brad Bergesen.

A Quick Word About Chris Gomez...

Since the signing of Ty Wigginton, the composition of the expected three-man bench has been kicked around, specifically the future of Chris Gomez. Sure, this Wigginton signing probably means Gomez doesn't make the team but who will back up Cesar Izturis at shortstop?

My response: Who cares?

You may want a defensive specialist who can play short on your bench if you have an offensive shortstop with some fielding deficiencies (Miguel Tejada). But the O's already have a defensive specialist as a full-time starter. You're not lifting Izturis late in the game for a defensive specialist. And if you pinch hit for him, stick Freel out there if necessary for an inning. One inning won't hurt.

Izturis blows out his knee? Stick Freel there for a game, then call up Jolbert Cabrera or Donnie Murphy (or someone of that ilk) from Norfolk.

Backup catcher I understand. Backup shortstop? Why keep a guy who would ONLY fill that role on a three-man bench? Not thick enough.

Gomez should not make this team barring injury or an expansion to a four-man bench. Period.

Cesar Izturis: Brand New Oriole

The Orioles have reportedly inked 28-year old Cesar Izturis to be their shortstop. 2 years and $6 million.

At this time last year, I was pretty horrified that Izturis was in Baltimore's plans for shortstop. But for the first time since 2005, Izturis played more than 900 innings in the field and his defensive metrics were at a point where he was probably one of the top 2 or 3 fielding shortstops in the NL. He seems to have fully recovered from serious injuries he suffered during the 2005 season.

Offensively...he's a black hole. You could argue that his bat (or lack thereof) negates his excellent fielding. He's a .260/.299/.331 career hitter. He had only 8 Win Shares last season and that includes 4 for his fielding alone. Brutal.

Sadly, he is an upgrade over any of our shortstops from 2008. He may be overpaid at $3 million a year but this is an improvement for the club.

Base Hits: 11/30/2007

I guess I need to applaud the organization when they do something right, like invest in a baseball complex in the Dominican Republic. This will help the Orioles increase their scouting presence in Latin America (which was pratically nil) and is a good step in the right direction. It's stating the obvious but the farm system really needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. This should be the first step in a long process.

*****

There had been talk (to my shock and horror) that the Orioles might sign SS Cesar Izturis instead of letting Luis Hernandez learn on the job next season. It's a great relief to know that the Cardinals signed him to replace David Eckstein at short. Why?

"We definitely value his defense," general manager John Mozeliak said on Friday afternoon. "We also think that offensively there could be more in there. Speaking with our staff, we felt that we could probably tap into a little bit more there, as well."

Let's make one thing clear. Izturis is no longer even an above average defensive shortstop and hasn't been since 2005. This is the same kind of crap you heard from Oriole brass about Paul Bako even though his defensive skills had long since eroded. These guys get a rep and they never seem to lose it. Eckstein's range was actually better than Izturis the last two seasons and Izturis fielding percentage is only marginally better. I don't get these GM's sometimes.

OK, now I'll say something nice about Izturis. He signed a baseball for my son at Dodgertown a couple of years ago. There.

*****

A sculptor named Bill Rains is sculpting a statue of Dave McNally for a new ballpark in Billings, Montana.

I will now tell the story of the time my father faced Dave McNally. Gather round children.

My father was a pretty good ballplayer and his team faced McNally's team for the Montana state championship. Dad was pretty good and played with boys a couple years older than he was so he was only 13 when he faced off against the 18 year old McNally. Dad went in to pinch hit at some point and said the first pitch was a sweeping curveball that looked like it was heading for his head so he bailed out only to have the ball break sharply back over the plate for strike one.

My father thought to himself that he was ready for that pitch and he would hang in there and wait for the break this time. This time however, the pitch didn't break and drilled Dad right between the shoulder blades. He caught his breath, tried not to cry and trotted down to first.

After the game (which McNally won), McNally walked off the field and met with the Oriole scout and signed his first professional contract.

(Paul Harvey voice) And now you know....the rest of the story.