Is the Oriole Pitching Prospect Pool Too Shallow?

ESPN's Rob Neyer gives another lesson in the concept of TINSTAAP: "There is no such thing as a pitching prospect."

This time, he took a look at the top prospects as selected by Baseball America over the last 21 years.

I'm going to start with something really simple. Here are the top-rated hitters and pitchers from each year, presented chronologically (in a number of cases, the top-rated guy repeated a year later, and they are noted as such) ...


Hitters: Andujar Cedeno, Chipper Jones (2), Cliff Floyd, Alex Rodriguez, Andruw Jones (2), Ben Grieve, J.D. Drew, Pat Burrell, Josh Hamilton, Hank Blalock, Mark Teixeira, Joe Mauer (2), Delmon Young, Alex Gordon, Jay Bruce, Matt Wieters, Jason Heyward.


Pitchers: Todd Van Poppel, Brien Taylor (2), James Baldwin, Armando Benitez, Paul Wilson, Kerry Wood (2), Rick Ankiel (2), Josh Beckett (2), Jesse Foppert, Edwin Jackson, Felix Hernandez, Francisco Liriano, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Joba Chamberlain, David Price, Stephen Strasburg.


I believe that first list accounts for six MVP Awards, and the second for exactly one Cy Young Award.


I believe the first list includes one absolute bust -- arguably Gordon, so far -- while the second includes two absolute busts (Taylor and Foppert) along with a number of pitchers (Van Poppel, Baldwin, Wilson, Wood) who did hang around for a while but never hit the predicted heights.


Ankiel is in a class of his own. The jury is still out on Dice-K and Joba. You really can't say anything negative about Hernandez or Price (except Price is still young and highly susceptible to the same injury woes that have waylaid so many other young pitchers).

It just highlights how uncertain the path of pitching prospects is when compared to hitting prospects. And since the Orioles' philosophy of late has been to "grow the arms", you have to think hard about the direction of their farm system given that pitching prospects are so volatile a commodity.

You have heard me quote Branch Rickey a thousand times. "From quantity comes quality." I applauded the Orioles when they added a second Dominican Summer League team last year, giving them 7 minor league teams in their system. Now, with the excuse that resources are being spread too thin, the Orioles are dropping down to one DSL team and ending their affiliation with Bluefield in the Appalachian League. This gives them only 5 teams full of players for 2011.

Why is this important? As Neyer's exercise highlights and as is generally accepted, you can't always count on your top picks to provide pitching for your major league club. Many times, depth is provided from the later rounds and the more spots you have for guys to play, the better chance you have to stumble upon a diamond in the rough.

A.J. Burnett was an 8th round pick. James Shields a 16th round pick. Jamie Garcia, John Smoltz and Andy Pettitte were all 22nd rounders. Roy Oswalt and Dallas Braden were 23rd and 24th round picks, respectively. I could go on and this doesn't even include relievers who often come from later in the draft.

The point is, if you are going to build your farm system on pitching, the most unpredictable of commodities in baseball, shouldn't you have as many rotation spots for them as possible, especially in the lower levels?

I would assume that with the contraction of two teams in their farm system, they will use that savings to spend more on the draft and on international talent. I hope so or the Oriole farm system may be taking a step backwards in 2011. That would be a shame given the steady progress it's made over the past four years.

Base Hits: Additions, Departures and Blogging Ethics

Miguel Tejada has indirectly ended Denis Sarfate's Oriole career as he was designated for assignement. Some quotes from his interview with Roch Kubatko:

"Right now, where I'm standing, I hope I get to pitch for another team. Obviously, my goal is to pitch in the big leagues every year. I'm not saying I couldn't make the (Orioles) out of spring training, because if I do go there, I intend to make the team, but obviously I'd be the last in line to get innings. If I get the chance to go to another team, I'd be happy and take it with open arms.



"To me, I'm kind of in shock. I wish I had known earlier and saved two days of my life and not gone to Baltimore for FanFest. I flew cross-country and left my daughter at home..."


Doesn't sound like he's going to accept the demotion...

I would have liked to see if a healthy Sarfate could've turned it around but if we're going to keep a fringy guy who has isues throwing strikes, I'd rather have Matt Albers.

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Nobody is surprised that Mark Hendrickson is back. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Hendrickson had a 3.44 ERA in 42 appearance as a reliever and a 2.64 K/BB ratio. He was effective in the bullpen and can make a spot start in a pinch. For $1.2 million, (less than he made last season) he's a good value.

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Keith Law released his top 100 prospects for 2010 andfour Orioles made the cut. For those of you without ESPN Insider, he're a few quotes:

SP Brian Matusz (#11) - "He's not the prototypical No. 1 starter with a big fastball and an easy delivery, but his ability to miss left- and right-handed bats in different ways gives him a chance to lead a staff, regardless."

SP Zach Britton (#25) - "His control remains below-average and his command of all pitches and feel for the slider need to improve, as well, but he would slot in very nicely as a No. 2 starter behind Brian Matusz, or as an outstanding No. 3 behind Matusz and Chris Tillman."

(I love that Britton is ranked so high. He's a sinkerballer who gets a ton a groundballs...a skill that works very well at OPACY.)

3B Josh Bell (#61) - "He has excellent bat speed from the left side, accelerating his wrists very quickly from the set position, although his swing is a little flat and might be more geared to doubles than home runs. "


SP Jake Arrieta (#90) - "Beyond the significant improvement in his control, he remains what he was: a four-pitch guy with no plus pitch but nothing below-average."

Keith Law's Top Ten Oriole Prospects:

1. Brian Matusz, LHP
2. Zack Britton, LHP
3. Josh Bell, 3B
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP
5. Brandon Snyder, 1B
6. Brandon Erbe, RHP
7. Caleb Joseph, C
8. Brandon Waring, 3B/1B
9. Matt Hobgood, RHP
10. Xavier Avery, OF

By the way, Law has been repeatedly asked if the O's made a mistake by "going cheap" and selecting Matt Hobgood in 2009. Law has consistently said that he would not have picked Hobgood over the college arms but does not consider the pick a "reach " or a bad pick on the face of it.

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I wanted to comment on the Ed Smith Stadium situation (again). TOH to Camden Chat for some of these links.

A week ago, citizen's groups that had put renovation plans for Ed Smith Stadium on hold with a lawsuit, offered to settle out of court with the main condition being a binding referendum on said renovations and bond offerings.

Yesterday, Sarasota County ruled out a referendum and instead will hold another public hearing on the issue.

While this is a bit of a mess, the fact that the plaintiff is offering to settle and the county has refused that offer and is instead manuevering to avoid any perception of violation of state law bodes well for a quick resolution. I don't think the renovations are in jeopardy.

Here are new drawings of the renovation plans for Ed Smith. A few more details than previous sketches but the same idea.

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Forget just talking to Hisanori Takaahashi, according to this article, there's more happening.

The Orioles have extended minor league deals with spring training invitations to former Los Angeles Dodgers Will Ohman and Japanese lefty Hisanori Takahashi. 

The more, the merrier. More arms in Spring Training is a good thing, especially if they come cheap.

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Speaking of Spring Training invites, the Orioles invited 6 more players to major league ST. Here they are:

SS Blake Davis - Spring Training 2008 was good to Davis as his hot bat gained him serious consideration to make the jump from AA to Baltimore. Injuries decimated his 2009 season as he posted a .235/.290/.304 line in 68 games, most with AAA Norfolk.

C Adam Donachie - A Dempey's Army favorite. Donachie is probably just here to spell the catchers who actually have a shot to make the team but one can hope.

C Luis Barnardo - 22-year-old who played in Delmarva in 2009. Seems to be a "not-hit" type.

IF Miguel Abreu and IF/OF Jonathan Tucker - light hitting utility-player types. This is the role they will serve in Sarasota too.

CF Matt Angle - All Matt Angle does is get on base and steal bases. THAT'S ALL HE DOES!!!!

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Without further comment, here's a link to a Camden Crazies post that addresses blogging ethics. Good work, Dan.


OK, one more comment. I am as supportive of the Oriole Blog-O-Sphere community as anyone but this situation is just one reason I will not link to fledgling bloggers until I see the work they are doing. So if you are a new blogger, don't take it personally.

Just my 2 cents.

Base Hits: 10/29/2008

I don't always agree with ESPN's Keith Law but I come to respect his opinion. He's a smart guy when it comes to scouting. In his caht from earlier this week:



Matt J. (Baltimore, MD): Klaw - Wondering if you saw Brandon Snyder at the AFL, and if he can become an everyday 1B for the O's at some point.



Keith Law: Yes, saw him, liked the swing and the raw power, but he needs to show he can drop the head of the bat and get to the ball down. Potential is there for him to be an everyday 1b offensively.



I am pulling for every Oriole prospect but was not that high on the guy given his huge strikeout totals. Law likes him more than I do. Law also seems to like Nolan Reimold a lot more than I didi too. I see these opinions as a good sign that our prospects are viewed in a better light around baseball than we think.



Also from Law:



Greg (philly): Is Ryan Howard turning into a real life Pedro Cerrano?



Keith Law: Haven't seen his locker.



Good line.

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Adam Loewen is a tool.

Yes, baseball is a business. Yes, he was well within his rights to sign with the Blue Jays.

But taking $4 million from the club that was willing to let you re-invent yourself as a hitter when you flamed out as a pitcher? A club that you had a handshake agreement with to re-sign with to sign with a division rival? That's a dirty move. I don't care how long a shot it was that he made it back to the majors. It's rotten.

Your have no honor, Adam. Good day, sir! I said, good day!

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The stuff going on out in the winter leagues is just too depressing...more on that later...

Base Hits: 5/2/2008

Well, that sucked. The Orioles lose their first series in over two weeks and now hit the road for another brutal west coast roadtrip. Since the big league club isn't so hot, let's look at the farm. TopProspectAlert.com has started doing minor league stat line updates every morning. Here's the Orioles' highlights from last night:

Chris Heintz - BAL 3-4, RBI, .368avg
Mike Costanzo - BAL 2-4, 2B, 3B, 2R, .213avg
Bradley Bergesen - BAL 8IP, 1ER, 6H, 1BB, 1K, WIN 0.60ERA
Kyle Schmidt - BAL 7IP, 1ER, 3H, 1BB, 5K, 3.32ERA
Anthony Martinez - BAL 3-4, HR, 3RBI, R, .284avg

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Randor Bierd goes on the DL which is really not good. Bierd has been one of the bright spots this April and looking like he would be at the core of the new young relief corp. Get well Randor. We'll see you in June.

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Dave Rouleau of Baseball Digest Daily has a post about Nick Markakis. Well, actually he has a post that pulls liberally from a story the Baltimore Sun ran. I missed the story in the Sun but it's a heartbreaking story of how Nick lost one of his friends far too soon.

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Just saw Ironman and it was excellent. Robert Downey, Jr. is an excellent Tony Stark, Jeff Bridges is a credible bad guy, Terrence Howard was great and even Gwyneth Paltrow had her moments as "the girl" which is not an easy task. Better than the first Spiderman. Go see it. (as if it needs my endorsement...)

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Song of the Week: A co-worker loaned me the new Erykah Badu album and it is shockingly good! Here's "Honey" off the album entitled "New Amerykah". Great concept for a video but this isn't even close to being the best song off the album. Have a great weekend!

Erykah Badu

Base Hits: 11/30/2007

I guess I need to applaud the organization when they do something right, like invest in a baseball complex in the Dominican Republic. This will help the Orioles increase their scouting presence in Latin America (which was pratically nil) and is a good step in the right direction. It's stating the obvious but the farm system really needs to be rebuilt from the ground up. This should be the first step in a long process.

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There had been talk (to my shock and horror) that the Orioles might sign SS Cesar Izturis instead of letting Luis Hernandez learn on the job next season. It's a great relief to know that the Cardinals signed him to replace David Eckstein at short. Why?

"We definitely value his defense," general manager John Mozeliak said on Friday afternoon. "We also think that offensively there could be more in there. Speaking with our staff, we felt that we could probably tap into a little bit more there, as well."

Let's make one thing clear. Izturis is no longer even an above average defensive shortstop and hasn't been since 2005. This is the same kind of crap you heard from Oriole brass about Paul Bako even though his defensive skills had long since eroded. These guys get a rep and they never seem to lose it. Eckstein's range was actually better than Izturis the last two seasons and Izturis fielding percentage is only marginally better. I don't get these GM's sometimes.

OK, now I'll say something nice about Izturis. He signed a baseball for my son at Dodgertown a couple of years ago. There.

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A sculptor named Bill Rains is sculpting a statue of Dave McNally for a new ballpark in Billings, Montana.

I will now tell the story of the time my father faced Dave McNally. Gather round children.

My father was a pretty good ballplayer and his team faced McNally's team for the Montana state championship. Dad was pretty good and played with boys a couple years older than he was so he was only 13 when he faced off against the 18 year old McNally. Dad went in to pinch hit at some point and said the first pitch was a sweeping curveball that looked like it was heading for his head so he bailed out only to have the ball break sharply back over the plate for strike one.

My father thought to himself that he was ready for that pitch and he would hang in there and wait for the break this time. This time however, the pitch didn't break and drilled Dad right between the shoulder blades. He caught his breath, tried not to cry and trotted down to first.

After the game (which McNally won), McNally walked off the field and met with the Oriole scout and signed his first professional contract.

(Paul Harvey voice) And now you know....the rest of the story.