I was preparing my WAR spreadsheet for 2010 and took a look at my 2009 sheet. I won't go over every gory detail but thought I would list a few I got right and a few I got really, really wrong.
Best Predictions for Hitters:
Matt Wieters
Predicted: 2.0 WAR Actual: 1.9 WAR
I tempered my enthusiasm and basically got this right. A slow start but a furious finish is pretty much what I expected.
Cesar Izturis
Predicted 1.2 WAR Actual: 1.3 WAR
He was who we thought he was. Flashy glove and not much else.
Brian Roberts
Predicted: 3.6 WAR Actual: 3.4 WAR
Another steady year from Roberts. Pretty easy to figure this one.
Worst Batter Projections:
Aubrey Huff
Predicted: 1.7 WAR Actual: -0.4 WAR
I thought Huff would take a big step back from 2008 but I didn't see the utter collapse. Ouch.
Nick Markakis
Predicted: 6.1 WAR Actual: 2.2 WAR
I predicted, loudly and often, that Markakis would have a breakout year in 2009. Instead, he took a step back.
Ryan Freel
Predicted: 0.7 WAR Actual: -0.2 WAR
I didn't expect big things from Freel but thought he would add some value (mostly defensive) up the middle. No chance.
I won't even bother doing the pitchers. Sure, I got Uehara's value right but the rest of the rotation and bullpen was such a mess, there was no way to predict who would be pitching by the time September rolled around.
This last month has been a microcosm of the 2009 season. The team looked doomed to 100+ losses, showed some fight that gave you hope, lost 13 straight to send them right back to the depths of suckitude and then rally to sweep the Jays in the last series of the season. With Matt Albers getting the win in the final game! An odd season...
Record: 63-98 (Baltimore will pick third in the 2010 Draft.)
The Good
Brian Roberts clouts 56 doubles to set the team, franchise and switch-hitter record for doubles in a season. Add 16 homers and 30 stolen bases and you've got a heck of a year and the MVO award. And before we leave Roberts' remarkable season, one more record of mild interest. No one in the history of baseball has ever hit 55+ doubles and stolen 30 bases in a season until Brian Roberts in 2009. Nobody.
Cesar Izturis would have trouble hitting his way out of a wet paper bag but it's his glove we love. Izturis ranks 4th in baseball among shortstops in terms of UZR and even with the injuries has been a breath of fresh air over the motley crew that was trotted out in 2008. Baltimore fans know good defense at short when we see it and this year Izturis (with an assist from Robert Andino) provided it.
Matt Wieters. This next quote comes from a season wrap-up article for the Orioles on Baseball Prospectus:
Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora, and Ty Wigginton were big disappointments, but none so much as the eagerly-awaited Wieters. The catcher produced some of the best minor league numbers in recent memory, including his first two months in Triple-A this year, but upon his big-league debut, he didn't show much in the way of big-league power.—Clay Davenport, Baseball Prospectus
Possibly the dumbest, most short-sighted comment I've read all year.
Wieters, in fits and starts, has shown steady improvement as the season has gone along, at the plate and behind it. He has a mere 380 plate appearances in the majors. It's just a tad early to call him disappointing isn't it? Chuck Norris-style joking aside?
Wieters posted a .346/.403/.505 line for September/October. That's a nice way to finish the season and gives him something to build upon for next year. But no one could have reasonably expected him to come to Baltimore and start immediately bludgeoning the AL East. But that time may be sooner than we think.
All the debuts were good, even if the results were not. Getting Brad Bergesen, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, even David Hernandez and Jason Berken up to the bigs for a taste of things (and giving management a chance to evaluate them) was a good thing for the future of this club.
The Bad
Melvin Mora was dreadful. Arguably the worst third baseman in the league (at the plate and in the field) and he got way too much playing time based on his tenure and not his actual skill. He will be remembered fondly but not for 2009.
Aubrey Huff peaked far too early to get any trade value for him. He was pretty bad himself and the thought of him returning to Baltimore in 2010 gives me the tremors.
Jeremy Guthrie righted the ship a bit in September/October but was pretty wretched throughout the 2009 season. Only the complete ineptitude of the rest of the rotation made him look palatable on the mound.
As the ball left Billy Butler's bat and struck Brad Bergesen sharply in the shin, I tried to guard myself against a creeping fatalism as he limped, hopped and ultimately tumbled down the dugout steps and collapsed in the tunnel. You hope he comes back the same pitcher and you wonder what might have been had he pitched the rest of the season.
The Disappointments
Nick Markakis posted a measly .801 OPS after nearly topping .900 last season. Markakis saw drops in power, OBP and average from 2007 and 2008 and now sits back at offensive levels that he had in his rookie season. That means he's merely decent and not great. Perhaps this year was a fluke, perhaps 2008 was the high water mark but Nick dashed my predictions for a breakout season in '09 and all the Enos Slaughter comps I've ever made.
I could probably throw the entire bullpen into my bag of disappointments but I'll personify them through Matt Albers. I think Albers has the talent to be a great reliever in the majors but while he show flashes from time to time, ultimately he fails and leaves you wondering why he can't throw strikes. This is the story with most of the remaining bullpen as we head into 2010. Nobody (save perhaps Mark Hendrickson) stepped up their performance in 2009.
I never got to see the lineup with four switch hitters before they traded Zaun to Tampa Bay.
The Surprises
Nolan Reimold was certainly a prospect before the season but I was quite surprised by how fast he made it to Baltimore this year and even more surprised how he found success from the jump. Even more surprising was the fact that he could post an OBP north of .350 for his rookie campaign. The power was never in doubt and, yes, he showed some plate control skill in the minors but some (including me) doubted if he could translate that skill to the majors and avoid becoming the second coming of Jay Gibbons. He proved me wrong.
Brad Bergesen's poise and effectiveness so early in his career. It's not easy for a finesse pitcher to live in the AL East, especially a rookie. But Brad did.
Michael Aubrey was acquired from the Cleveland Indians for the ubiquitous player-to-be-named-later and after Bad Aubrey was traded to the Tigers, Michael got a shot to play and has shown himself to be Good Aubrey indeed. Aubrey has posted a .289/.326/.500 line in 90 plate appearances and flashed a (dare I say it?) a Teixeira-like glove. He makes me feel like he's a good in-house stopgap at first base, a guy to give Brandon Snyder more time to come along in Norfolk next year. I've been beating the drum for guys like this to get a chance on this team and with a nice Spring Training, Aubrey may force management's hand.
Dave Trembley coming back? I wouldn't have guessed that two weeks ago. But I am happy he's back for one more year. He was given little to work with in '09 and did a decent job of putting the rookies in places to succeed, at least as much as could be expected.
The Failures
The Warehouse started the season with a rotation of Guthrie, Hendrickson, Adam Eaton, Alfredo Simon and Koji Uehara. Only Guthrie was left by season's end. Uehara had injuries, not really management's fault but the assembly of the rotation before the 2009 season was a monumental failure by Andy MacPhail and company.
Baltimore kind of had to take Ryan Freel to unload Ramon Hernandez to the Reds but he did nothing and whined about wanting to hurt the team more with more playing time. He was unloaded for Joey Gathright early in the season.
I still don't like the Oscar Salazar/Cla Meredith trade and, so far, the Trade Monitor bears that out.
The Successes
The George Sherrill trade netted a legitimate prospect at third (Josh Bell) and perhaps an under the radar starting pitching prospect (Steve Johnson) from the Dodgers. Great, great trade.
The Michael Aubrey pickup was another low risk move that has borne fruit early in the transaction.
Even with Felix Pie's growing pains, that trade has turned out very well for the Orioles. Pie was nearly a league average hitter before he injured his leg late in the year and was playing great defense in left and center. Mental lapses aside, he has shown value as at least a fourth outfielder for this team.
The Jekyll and Hyde Awards
Adam Jones before All-Star Break: .303/.357/.480 Adam Jones after All -Star Break: .222/.290/.405
Luke Scott before All-Star Break: .305/.384/.592 Luke Scott after All -Star Break: .208/.292/.375
Predictions
Some of my pre-season predictions:
So my first prediction is that Penn turns out to be way more useful to the Marlins than Robert Andino will be to Baltimore. - Actually, they turned out to be equally bad in terms of WAR but honestly, I was wrong about this one.
Alfredo Simon is out of the rotation by the end of May. He won't be with the big club by July. - Check
Matt Wieters is here in May. - Check.
Brad Bergeson is here in July. - He made it much earlier.
Brian Matusz is here is September. - As Andy MacPhail has admitted, he was rushed and got here in July.
The Orioles win 72 games. - Yeah, not exactly.
Lou Montanez won't OPS better than .750 at any level...unless he goes back to Bowie. - Except for a 10 game stint in Norfolk, correct.
Felix Pie gets better in the second half. - Admittedly, it would have been hard for him to get worse but after putting up .234/.299/.355 in the first half he came through with .290/.346/.497 in the second. More plate appearances in the second half too. Correct.
Adam Jones hits 20+ home runs. - In May, it looked like I had underestimated him. But he only reached 19 due to injury and slumps. Wrong.
Luke Scott and Ty Wigginton provide the best Oriole platoon since...well, in a very long time. - I forgot about that whole "Trembley doesn't do platoons"rule. Dead wrong but oh, what could have been.
And as Joe Pawlikowski of River Ave. Blues was happy to point out, I predicted an 81-81 record for his New York Yankees in a preseason chat. Yeah, the juggernaut that won 100+ games. What can I say? A lot of old guys had career years where I thought they would start to show their age.
But in that same chat, I was lambasted for stating that while I thought Evan Longoria was a fearsome hitter, I did not find B.J. Upton fearful at all. We'll call those chat predictions a wash.
So, that the season folks and I...am...outta here!
OK, not really. What's in store for the offseason at Dempsey's Army? Coverage of the AFL and the Hawaiian league as O's prospects take the field. Transaction coverage as usual. I think I'll be working on some interviews and honing my chops at that. Some non-Oriole baseball posts and at least a couple posts that are completely off-topic, just to keep the juices flowing. Oh, I'll probably finish the History of the Oriole Closer series and post some mini book reviews if they strike me.
OK, now time for a beer...
How about some "Downpressor Man" to finish the season off? I think so.
Since 100 losses seems to have reared its ugly head again, (many consider it a foregone conclusion), let's see how bad it would have to get for the O's to reach the century mark.
For the Orioles to lose 100 games, they would have to go 8-20 to close out the season. Their month by month records for 2009:
Record Mar/April 9-13 May 14-15 June 12-14 July 9-16 August 10-20
Baltimore is already 0-2 in September so it would take an 8-22 record for September and October to reach such lows. Throughout this interminable drought of winning seasons, the Orioles have flirted with that level of futility but only achieved it once: last September when they went 5-20.
There are more games left due to playing into the first week of October but even if the Orioles swept the Rangers this weekend they could go 5-20 to finish the year and lose 100 games.
The Orioles are not going to sweep the Rangers. With Adam Jones and Brad Bergesen shut down for the season and Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz soon to follow...this hopeful fan is losing hope.
It's quite possible at this point that we will see triple digit losses for the first time since 1988. (And we still won't get the first overall pick...the Nationals have 8 games on us.)
The Florida State League is a high A league and while I can't imagine the O's changing affiliations from Frederick to Sarasota, I also can't imagine them doing nothing with Ed Smith Stadium. The GCL Orioles maybe?
The 6-foot-3, 190-pound Britton throws a four-seam fastball, changeup and slider. His out pitch has been an exceptional sinker. "It's not a two-seam grip, its an actual sinker grip which I learned from (Scott McGregor) our pitching coach in (short-season) Aberdeen," Britton said. "I kind of throw it with a type of curveball grip, which gives it a little more sink and gets more ground balls. I throw it about 50 percent of the time when I'm throwing fastballs." According to MinorLeagueSplits.com, Britton has induced grounders at a 65% rate in 2009. Nothing wrong with a sinkerballer in Camden Yards.
If you've been reading the blog this season, you know that I have been a strident supporter of Pie remaining the Oriole. I backed him when Lou Montanez outplayed him during Spring Training, I backed him when he struggled to start the season and only relegated him to "the 4th outfielder" when Nolan Reimold was called up and showed he was more deserving of an everyday role. But I still believed in Pie and thought that Dave Trembley wasn't utilizing him enough as a defensive replacement or pinch runner. (Even with his early season struggles in left, Pie has been the best defender in the Baltimore outfield this year.)
So this silver lining to a bad injury, these 28 games of opportunity are Pie's shot. Maybe they keep him in left and move Reimold to first. Maybe they trade Pie (or Reimold(!!!)) in a package for a veteran pitcher or young third baseman. Regardless, I believe Pie will increase his value to the team, either as trade bait or a player in September.
*****
Off topic.
I love the Baltimore Orioles. No surprise. But I live and die with my beloved Washington Redskins just as much, if not more.
The team under Daniel Snyder has been frustrating. They underachieve, the front office signs aging players, there is a coaching merry-go-round and all of it never seems to gel right. But I'm an Orioles fan. I know how to root for a loser.
The team gouges its fans. Parking, concessions and tickets are ridiculously expensive. They charge admission to training camp. They have a captive, loyal audience that they milk for every dime they can. But I've excused it because pro football is a TV game anyway (in my opinion) and I'm all for a guy making a buck. Football is a business too.
On Oct. 8, the Redskins sued Hill in Prince George's County Circuit Court for backing out of a 10-year ticket-renewal agreement after the first year. The team sought payment for every season through 2017, plus interest, attorneys' fees and court costs... Hill is one of 125 season ticket holders who asked to be released from multiyear contracts and were sued by the Redskins in the past five years. The Washington Post interviewed about two dozen of them. Most said that they were victims of the economic downturn, having lost a job or experiencing some other financial hardship.
OK, if someone can't or doesn't pay for their season tickets, the team is well within their rights to revoke the fan's claim on those seats and sell them elsewhere. Redskin season tickets are still a hot commodity; those won't be empty seats for long.
But to sue for the entire value of the ten-year contract? Your biggest fans? And you're the richest team in the NFL?
It's too much. I'm taking a break. I can't root for the Redskins this year. time to find a new team for 2009...and maybe beyond.
I'm stealing this idea from Beyond the Boxscore but I don' think they are in any hurry to do this exercise with the Orioles so I'll do it here.
It's all about optimizing lineups, getting the most bang for your buck out of the players that you have. I think batting order is very overrated when it comes to run production (I think Sky at BtB has said the same thing) but it is interesting to see how unorthodox a lineup can look and, theoretically, score more runs per game.
Here are the main players for the Oriole lineup and their CHONE projections for OBA and SLG for 2009:
OBA SLG B. Roberts .359 .423 M. Mora .328 .414 N. Markakis .376 .474 A. Huff .354 .466 L. Scott .352 .462 A. Jones .337 .444 G. Zaun .313 .355 F. Pie .320 .407 C. Izturis .287 .326
Using the rules, the first step is to identify the top three hitters on the team. For the Orioles, that projects to be Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff. These guys will take up the top three spots in the lineup.
For leadoff, OBP is king. You also want the batter with the least power among those three elite hitters on the team. Speed is icing on the cake. Hello, Brian Roberts.
In the two hole, it's the best hitter between Huff and Markakis. This hitter comes to bat in more big situations than any other hitter in the lineup. #2 belongs to Nick.
Cleanup should be one of the best hitters on the team and the guy with power. This would be Huff. You could quibble that Markakis may have more raw power next season and you could swap the two without much argument from me. But Huff is #4 for now.
The next two best hitters on the team are Adam Jones and Luke Scott. More value is gained in the 5 slot with a batter who hits singles, doubles and triples rather than living and dying with the home run. Scott doesn't live and die with the homer but Jones is probably a more well-rounded hitter is this regard. Scott goes to #3 and Jones is #5.
Melvin Mora, Gregg Zaun, Felix Pie and Cesar Izturis are left. From here, the order goes from best hitter to worst with a caveat that if you have someone who can steal bases, they add some value in the 6 hole. Only Izturis is a fair stolen base threat at this point in his career but the bat is so bad that I don't think he will leverage that skill too often. Mora is the best of what's left, followed by Pie, Zaun and Izturis.
Your "optimized" 2009 Orioles lineup:
1 Roberts 2 Markakis 3 Scott 4 Huff 5 Jones 6 Mora 7 Pie 8 Zaun 9 Izturis
Plugging this information into the Lineup Optimization Tool, this lineup is estimated to score 4.885 runs per game. If you swap Huff and Markakis, the total is 4.879 so I was barely correct with Markakis in the 2 hole.
Pinto's best lineup? It scores 4.898 runs per game.
1 Roberts 2 Markakis 3 Jones 4 Huff 5 Scott 6 Pie 7 Zaun 8 Mora 9 Izturis
Mora and Pie, as well as Scott and Huff are interchangeable with the same production.
One wrinkle: what if we add Matt Wieters? Wieters' CHONE: .349 OBA and .439 SLG.
Wieters would fit in at the 5 slot and bump everybody down:
1. Roberts 2. Markakis 3. Scott 4. Huff 5. Wieters 6. Jones 7. Mora 8. Pie 9. Izturis
Just the addition of Wieters...brings the runs per game up to 5.031
Pinto adds this lineup for a runs per game of 5.041 moves Wieters to number three.
How about the run production for a "traditional" lineup?
1. Roberts 2. Mora 3. Markakis 4. Huff 5. Scott 6. Zaun 7. Jones 8. Pie 9. Izturis
This configuration gives you a runs per game of 4.857.
Swap Wieters in for Zaun in the 6 spot? That gets you 4.999 rns per game.
Difference in runs per game using The Book rules vs. the traditional approach: .028
The Book vs Pinto? Pinto wins by .013
The Book vs The Book with Wieters? Wieters improves the rate by .146 runs per game.
Traditional vs. Traditional with Wieters? Wieters adds .142 runs per game.
Conclusion? I would love to see a team try one of these non-traditional lineups sometime but as you can see, it matters little. I suppose it might let you win a game or two over the course of a season which could be a
But adding a better catcher? It improves jumps by at least a factor of 5.
So improving the actual members of the lineup means far more than the shuffling of said lineup. Go figure...
First, the negatives. Wigginton plays various positions (1B, 2B, 3B and OF) but doesn't play any of them particularly well, save for the corner outfield spots.
Even though he had a good year for Houston last year, he has basically been a league average bat over the course of his career.
His career OBP is .330.
He'll reportedly make $3 million per season for the next two years.
All that said, given his projected role, the signing will probably improve the team.
Why? He hits lefties very well and the Orioles needed someone to put in the lineup against C.C. Sabathias, Scott Kazmir and the other tough lefties Baltimore will have to face this year. Against LHP, Wigginton's line is .288/.364/.514 and in 2008 it was .340/.424/.631 . He'll go a long way to offset the weaknesses of Luke Scott and Aubrey Huff against lefthanded pitching.
He'll spell Melvin Mora in the field.
He'll likely push Chris Gomez off the roster. The fewer AB's that Gomez gets, the better this team is. (Baltimore will already be giving 600+ AB to Cesar Izturis...we can't afford anymore "good glove, bad bat" guys in the lineup...) In 2008, Gomez was a guy who played a lot of positions but none of them particularly well and he can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag.
So to recap, if this move prevents Gomez from making the 25-man roster and if Dave Trembley deploys him correctly (mostly against lefties), he'll be a useful player for the next couple seasons.
It'll be interesting to plug him into the WAR spreadsheet...
There's a lot of unknowns involved but based on educated guesses and various systems of projections, I have compiled my version of the WAR spreadsheet for the 2009 Orioles. The result? I think we'll be able to pencil the Orioles in for 77 wins in '09. Obviously, injuries will lower the projection but if Wieters gets to Baltimore ahead of schedule or a young pitcher breaks through...maybe 81 wins? I know, I'm dreaming...
(For what it's worth, since I did my first draft of the spreadsheet, the club has added Gregg Zaun, Felix Pie and David Pauley. They have pushed less effective players to either less playing time or of the roster completely...leading to an improvement of 4 wins...)
Frost King's version of the spreadsheet is here. He is contributing to Beyond the Boxscore's Community WAR Project 2009 and is looking for community projections over at Frost King Baseball. Go give him some help!
Mark Teixeira has signed with the New York Yankees.
Let me be the first to say....THANK GOD!
Andy MacPhail:
"The player was an exceptional player, and we sort of broke the rules trying to go after him. But really, the model that we have to follow just doesn't allow us to devote that much of our resources to one player, at least not at the present time."
He is correct. Going after Teixeira was not part of the plan that MacPhail laid out when he came to town. Build from within, focus on pitching and build a solid core before filling holes through free agency. This team is nowhere near the place where it can afford a long term, budget busting contract. You can take those kind of risks if you think you are only a year or two from serious contention. The Orioles cannot say that yet.
A long expensive contract, like the one the Yankees offered, could actually hurt this team in the long run.
Do you think the Rockies are happy that they still owe Todd Helton more than $50 million over the next three seasons? The Rockies signed him to a lucrative 9 year deal before the 2003 season. (Coincidentally, before Helton's age 29 season...just like Teixeira...) That deal looked good for the first three seasons. Not so much since. Long term deals with players approaching 30 rarely turn out very well.
And let's get one thing straight; Mark Teixeira is a very good player...but he is not a great player. He's just not. Compare his career thus far to Todd Helton, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Albert Pujols or even Chipper Jones. Teixeira just hasn't put together the monster seasons for his resume that these premier sluggers have/had by this point in their careers. And I've heard enough of this Gold Glove caliber defense Teixeira plays. Big deal. He's a first baseman. If his glove was really that hot, he'd play third. A slick fielding first baseman in modern baseball is a nice luxury but hardly impactful in any meaningful way. I've been beating this drum for awhile now but I don't think Mark Teixeira is worthy of being one of the highest paid players in baseball. I just don't. $22.5 million a year. Think about it. You know I'm right.
I've seen this guy up close here in Atlanta. He can be an impact bat but once the losing starts, he begins to lose interest. Think he's going to stay interested if the O's keep losing for a season or two? And there's this from Ted Robinson in L.A.:
the Angels were 66-40 (.622) BEFORE Teixeira, 34-22 (.607) WITH Teixeira. Atlanta was 49-56 with Teixeira and for the record he has played in exactly one All-Star Game.
He's a nice player but he's not the kind of player who can carry a team. Even teams with far more pieces in place than the Orioles.
I am so often wrong in my predictions so I have to reach back to last February when I made this bold prediction:
I'll call it now. If Teixeira leaves Atlanta, he'll be wearing pinstripes in 2009.
Not exactly going out on a limb but far more accurate than Buster Olney or Peter Gammons!
I'll leave you with some choice Mark Teixeira quotes from the past year or so...
There are a lot of teams you may not want to be traded to, but Atlanta was definitely a team I was happy to come play for. I was here for college at Georgia Tech, and even spent a year (living) here after college. That made the comfort level that much greater. My wife, Leigh, and her family are from (Georgia, Habersham County north of Atlanta), and we both went to school here and still have friends living in Atlanta. - Teixeira on playing in Atlanta
That would really be a dream come true. - Teixeira on playing for Baltimore, March 2007
The Orioles are close to my heart. - Mark Teixeira, May 2008
In a year and a half, we'll have some fun conversations. Baltimore, obviously in the future, is a place I'd love to look at. - Mark Teixeira, July 2007
I thought I'd be here the rest of my career. I really wanted to stay here, but business is business, and it's time for me to move on. - Mark Teixeira on his time in Atlanta
(They're) the best team in baseball. - Mark Teixeira on the Anaheim Angels
Mark Teixeira has not signed yet and many Oriole fans are freaking out. It's a state of panic really as even completely absurd and unfounded rumors of Teixeira attending the Ravens-Steelers game with Peter Angelos gets serious play in the Baltimore Sun and on MASN.
Easy, people. As I've said before, he's not coming anyway. This will not be some colossal failure on the part of The Warehouse. He has no intention of coming to play for a loser. He's done that already. Even if Baltimore greatly outbids everybody (which would be foolish), he's still not "coming home".(Although, at $20 mil per instead of $25 mil, I'd feel a little better about the deal.)
Secondly, he's hardly worth that kind of money and length of contract. Not for Baltimore. Teixeira is not the kind of guy who is going to rally a team and "show them how to win". He plays hard when he's interested, not so much when he isn't. He'll lose interest pretty fast in Baltimore, believe me. Does anybody think he's Roy Hobbs?
And have we forgotten that one big signing does not mean the team will suddenly start winning? Has everyone forgotten Miguel Tejada already? Can Teixeira pitch? Because last I checked we have one starting pitcher set for next season. One. I don't care if we do a direct swap of lineups with the Red Sox, they'll still finish with a better record next year because of their rotation and bullpen. (More on the pitching later...)
This team is not contending next year, not without a miraculous development from the pitchers in their farm system. There's no sense in throwing a lot of money, over a lot of years at one player. Not yet.
So let's keep this in perspective. If Teixeira does not come to Baltimore, it's not a disaster.
But history tells us, over and over and over, that winning -- as in contending -- is what really draws fans to your ballpark, not some shiny bauble. Cal Ripken single-handedly drew fans to Camden Yards at the end of his career. With all due respect to Teixeira, he is not Ripken. He is not Barry Bonds. Few players have that kind of box-office allure... The Orioles' payroll in 2008 was about $68 million, and if they were to sign Teixeira, that would climb to about $80 million, with the first baseman accounting for a quarter of that. Yet they still would be two or three topflight starting pitchers short of contending with the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees. They still would be two or three top-flight starting pitchers short of contending with the Jays for fourth place.
And I can say the following confidently, having worked as a sportswriter in Baltimore and having some understanding of the multilayered depth of knowledge in the Orioles' fan base: Until the team starts winning again, nobody will show up at Camden Yards. Signing Teixeira would not draw the the O's demonstrably closer to contending because they are so short in starting pitching. In fact, the signing of the first baseman could ultimately hurt them, because in two or three years, as the Orioles' young pitching begins to rise to the big leagues and the team needs pieces to augment the improved rotation, Teixeira's salary would restrict the kinds of moves the Orioles will make. Yep. Pretty much.
The Orioles have reportedly inked 28-year old Cesar Izturis to be their shortstop. 2 years and $6 million.
At this time last year, I was pretty horrified that Izturis was in Baltimore's plans for shortstop. But for the first time since 2005, Izturis played more than 900 innings in the field and his defensive metrics were at a point where he was probably one of the top 2 or 3 fielding shortstops in the NL. He seems to have fully recovered from serious injuries he suffered during the 2005 season.
Offensively...he's a black hole. You could argue that his bat (or lack thereof) negates his excellent fielding. He's a .260/.299/.331 career hitter. He had only 8 Win Shares last season and that includes 4 for his fielding alone. Brutal.
Sadly, he is an upgrade over any of our shortstops from 2008. He may be overpaid at $3 million a year but this is an improvement for the club.
The West Oahu Canefires will play in the Hawaiian League Championship game on Sunday. Oriole prospects haven't had a lot to do with their success (Tim Bascom, for instance, has been horrible) with the bright spot being 3B Tyler Henson hitting .261 with 16 RBI and a team high 25 walks. Adam Loewen plays for the Canefires too. He is hitting .143 with no extra base hits. And he's been hit by a pitch three times in just 8 games. Good!
*****
Sarasota has hammered out a proposal worth more than $30 million to become the Spring Training home for the Baltimore Orioles after two days of meetings with Oriole officials. The offer has yet to be voted on by the Lee County Commission before the offer is official.
A clip from Dave Sheinin's Nationals Journal blog as the free agent season begins. (The Nationals seem to think they have a legitimate shot at signing Mark Teixeira...oookay...)
*The Nationals' chief competitors might be just up the road in Baltimore. Someone who speaks to Peter Angelos regularly told me that he has never seen him so fixated on a player as he is on Teixeira. Others have told me that Angelos has been asking everyone in baseball what they think of Teixeira.
My educated guess is that the Orioles will end up making the highest bid for Teixeira.
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Song of the Week: Bringing a little country feel into the mix with the excellent alt country band out of Athens, GA, Drive-By Truckers with "Gravity's Gone" Have a nice weekend.
Desert O of Weaver's Tantrum suggested that I take a closer look at Teixeira vs. Dunn. There certainly isn't anything else going on as far as the Orioles are concerned...so here it is.
I decided to look at the last four years for the two players. All stats cumulative for the last four seasons and rankings are compiled for MLB OF, 1B and DHs (As an aside, Teixeira and Dunn will both be 29 for the 2009 season.)
The lines for each player for the last four seasons:
Teixeira .299/.389/.550 Dunn .254/.381/.524
Dunn seems lacking from those numbers alone, mostly based on his batting average, an average that is incorporated into the slugging and on-base averages too.
Let's look more closely at one of Dunn's other shortcomings, his strikeouts.
SO
Dunn 691 Howard 679 . . Teixeira 457
Dunn is the clear leader in strikeouts over the past four years, only Ryan Howard comes close. Teixeira is way down on the list at 14th.
However, if you look at it a different way, the strikeouts aren't so bad. Total outs over the last four years:
Outs
10. Teixeira 1700 . . 16. Dunn 1656
How does Dunn manage to come in under Teixeira? Well, if you strikeout, you don't ground into a double play. But mostly it's the insane walk rate.
BB
Dunn 449 Burrell 414 Ortiz 402 . . Teixeira 330
Dunn walks a ton which puts him squarely in the 100-100 club every year. He is, if you follow this blog, the kind of player I have a soft spot for. It also increases his value over your typical .250 hitter. He simply does not make a lot of outs.
Oh yeah, he can jack 'em too.
Homeruns
Howard 175 Dunn 160 Ortiz 159 Pujols 159 Soriano 144
Teixeira is down the list at 139...Dunn holds the advantage in terms of pure power when you take batting average out of the equation as the ISO numbers show.
ISO (Isolated Power)
4. Dunn .279 . . 11. Teixeira .251
Next is Runs Created and Extra Bases. Tex is clearly superior here but Dunn is no slouch.
Runs Created
3. Teixeira 510 . . 10. Dunn 459
Extra Bases
4. Teixeira 305 . . 11. Dunn 273
Who's the better all-around hitter? Teixeira is and I think that's clear. But Teixeira is thought to be looking at contract offers of $23-25 million per year. Dunn, according to most sources, will probably get a deal in the $12-13 million per year range.
Is Teixeira twice as good as Dunn? I don't think so. If you're the Orioles, it's all about value on the free agent market this offseason. Dunn offers some pretty good bang for the buck if you want to avoid the big bidding wars.
Rumors swirl during the Hot Stove season so I don't take them too seriously...but this is a HORRIBLE idea! Greene is set to make $6.5 million next season. $6.5 mil for a guy who plays a below average shortstop and has, at best, been an average hitter. And I am being very generous when I describe Greene as an average hitter. And they'll have to give up players, no matter how lowly, to get him.
Why don't you just sign Juan Uribe? They're the same player. They'll both be 29 next season. They both strike out a lot and walk rarely. They both have some decent pop. And you could argue that Uribe has a better glove. And he only made $4.5 mil last season and can be signed as a free agent without giving up prospects.
Brian Roberts continues to be coveted by clubs around the league. The latest team to express interest seems to be the White Sox. GM Kenny Williams loves speedy guys and Brian Roberts would certainly fit that bill.
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I don't get all the A.J. Burnett to the Orioles buzz either. They estimate that he's looking for $15-18 million for a four or five year deal. Is that really what the O's need? I'm no big fan of chasing Mark Teixeira but if you're going to spend in the neighborhood of $20 mil for a free agent, that's where it should be spent.
Burnett has had one healthy season out of three and is on the wrong side of 30. A four year deal? Any team that gives it to him is just begging for that deal to blow up in their face.
Given that Andy MacPhail's philosophy is to develop pitching from within and spend free agent money on position players, I hope there is nothing to the Burnett rumors.
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MLB.com has a video highlighting the Oriole prospects in the AFL. It's here.
My dream lineup for the 2009 Baltimore Orioles. Only two rules for this list. A) No trades allowed. There is no way possible to predict what would happen in trades. It would be crazy to predict. But free agents and internal candidates are allowed. B) The key phrase here is "bang-for-your-buck". This team will not contend so there is no reason to break the bank But all these Free Agent pickups are very realistic.
Starting Lineup
C Matt Wieters 1B Adam Dunn 2B Brian Roberts 3B Melvin Mora SS Adam Everett RF Nick Markakis CF Adam Jones LF Luke Scott DH Aubrey Huff
Now let me explain...
Wieters has nothing left to prove in the minors. Jump in and swim.
All Adam Dunn does is hit homers, walk and strikeout. Anybody who reads this blog with regularity knows I have a soft spot for 100/100 club guys. Especially when they hit 40 homers a year, every year. Dunn only hit .236 so his value will be diminished and he can learn to play firstbase. You could probably get him for less than $10 million a year for four years (he turns 29 in '09) and he'll give you Mark Teixeira-type production for less than half the salary. Obviously, they are very different players but Dunn is very productive in his own way.
The prospects at shortstop are bleak but if Adam Everett is healthy at least the defensive side of the game would be taken care of. IF he's healthy, you throw $1.5 mil his way for a couple years and watch a modern day Mark Belanger in action. If any town would appreciate Everett's talents, it would be Baltimore. Over the next two years, you look for a better option.
RP Radhames Liz RP Jamie Walker RP Dennis Sarfate RP Chris Waters RP Daniel Cabrera RP Chris Ray RP George Sherrill
Basically, you make a run at a couple of mid-level free agent pitchers and sign them to reasonable contracts. Lowe and Looper would be at least competent until our prospects are ready and they won't have to be rushed. Next, you bring in every scrapheap pitcher (Odalis Perez, Matt Clement, Livan Hernandez, etc...) you can lay your hands on and hope someone shines in Spring Training. That's where a guy like Josh Fogg comes in. Olson can continue to develop at the bottom of the rotation.
The bullpen continues to be developed from within...
Just my imagination running wild but I think it's a start.
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WHFS 105.7 has gone all-sports as of Monday. Lots of sports talk in Baltimore now but only the new "The Fan" and WNST provide primarily local sports talk. ESPN 1300 will now be exclusively ESPN national programming and newcomer WVIE will have a lot of Fox Sports programming.
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Adam Loewen is hitting .273 thus far in Hawaii. That's higher than any hitting prospect from the Oriole organization in Hawaii. (ujhmn ujhmn tfgv...banging head on keyboard)
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I don't get the perception that former Orioles GM Pat Gillick is some kind of miracle worker in Philly. The core of the Phillies team that just won the World Series was already in place when he took over in 2006! Here's what he did: signed the horrible Pedro Feliz, paid a whole lot of money to Geoff Jenkins to ride the bench, signed Jayson Werth, acquired Jamie Moyer, traded for Joe Blanton and Brad Lidge and signed J.C. Romero.
Pedro Feliz is a horrible hitter. Geoff Jenkins is nice off the bench but overpaid. Jason Werth was a nice pickup but he's an average player at best. Jamie Moyer was a nice pickup. Joe Blanton was fairly effective but he only had to trade for Blanton because the terrible contract he gave to Adam Eaton blew up in his face. Brad Lidge was a good move and Romero panned out well too.
But Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Kyle Kendrink, Ryan Madsen and more were already with the organization. They won the title but only time will tell how ravaged the Phillies farm system is after all Gillick's wheeling and dealing...
1. Matt Wieters, c 2. Chris Tillman, rhp 3. Brian Matusz, lhp 4. Jake Arrieta, rhp 5. Nolan Reimold, of 6. Brandon Erbe, rhp 7. Billy Rowell, 3b 8. Troy Patton, lhp 9. Brandon Snyder, 1b 10. Kam Mickolio, rhp
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From Keith Law's blog:
The Orioles likely will be players for free agents who are already "motivated to come to Baltimore," meaning players with Maryland ties -- Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett. Neither player would block any of the Orioles' many prospects. They would entertain serious offers for catcher Ramon Hernandez, knowing that über-prospect Matt Wieters could easily start the year in the majors and that several contenders are looking for short-term catching solutions. It's not out of the question that they would fast-track their top 2008 draft pick, left-handed starter Brian Matusz, by starting him at AA Bowie, although it's just as likely that he'll begin in the Carolina League, as Wieters and right-hander Jake Arrieta did.
I don't get the whole A.J. Burnett thing. More on that later...
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I was reading Sports Illustrated this week and a writer suggested that the O's should move Brian Roberts to shortstop and pursue a free agent secondbasemen. Dave Trembley has squashed that idea in these comments to Roch Kubatko.
Roberts is a good fielding secondbaseman...but he's 30 and I don't think his range is good enough at this point to play an acceptable shortstop.
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Vero Beach has supposedly made its "final offer" to the Baltimore Orioles to make the old Dodgertown facility their new spring training home. Sarasota, who is losing the Reds and have been spurned by the Red Sox, are targeting the Orioles as well.
