Base Hits: September Plans, Andy Pettitte and The Oriole Advocates

Lots of stuff in this Dan Connolly/Jeff Zreibec notebook entry for The Baltimore Sun.

First, Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman will only make 2-3 more starts before being shut down for the season. It may be ugly on the field but given their youth and the fact that the future of the rotation hinges on these guys, I think that's a prudent move.

Second, Brad Bergesen will not return this season. I was watching as the line drive rocketed off his leg and he limped, hopped, stumbled and ultimately collapsed in the tunnel heading toward the locker room. I figured that he would not be back at that moment...damn Oriole luck. And although I am generally an optimist, consider this; an unconventional control pitcher like Bergesen needs everything to go right for him to have success and a lot of that comes from a repeatable delivery. Chien-Ming Wang was one of the best pitchers in the AL for a couple seasons, hurt his leg and was never the same. Cross you fingers for Mr. Bergesen.

Chris Waters and Chris Lambert will be recalled from Norfolk to pick up the leftover starts. Buy your blindfolds now.

Speaking of blindfolds, Alberto Castillo, Matt Albers and Dennis Sarfate are being recalled today to provide "relief" for the overworked bullpen. For some reason, I like all these guys enormously. If they had recalled Bob McCrory, they would have been my full set of "favorite marginal big league relievers" that keep bouncing back and forth from Norfolk (or the DL) to Baltimore. All are flawed but I can't shake the feeling that they will all contribute to the success of the Oriole bullpen next season.

Norfolk pitching coach and former Oriole hurler Mike Griffin will finish out the season in Baltimore once IL play wraps up. Interesting...

Good to see Screech coming back to Baltimore. He's put together a fantastic season at Norfolk and I love to see guys rewarded who hang in there and overcome adversity in the minors.

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Speaking of overcoming adversity, former Oriole top pick Darnell McDonald has been playing for the Reds this season and hit his first major league homer last week against the Brewers.

McDonald was sent down in May but was called up a week ago and has been tearing it up. It probably won't last and he probably won't stick but it's nice to see a guy ride the buses for 12 years and finally get some limelight.

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It's rare that a New York sports reporter would write a thoughtful, informed piece about the Baltimore Orioles without a hint of arrogance or indifference. But Tyler Kepner has done just that.

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Mark Teixeira article on being booed at OPACY:

"The 29-year-old, who once listened to Camden Yards fans call him out for wearing a Don Mattingly T-shirt, said that the jeers in this ballpark don't register. "

Still waiting for photographic evidence of Teixeira wearing a Don Mattingly t-shirt. That sight must have been more elusive than the Loch Ness monster...

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By the way, I consider Jerry Hairston's botched play on an Adam Jones grounder to spoil Andy Pettitte's perfect game bid a cosmic universal shoutout to the club that drafted him.

And no, I didn't want to see a perfect game. Not by him, not against my team, not in Baltimore. The less Yankee celebrating in Charm City, the better. Hell, I would've been OK if Trembley had somebody lean into one to spoil it.

And can we stop it with the "near perfection" crap already. He didn't even make it into the 8th with a no-hit bid. That old man wasn't throwing a perfect game...he didn't even come that close.

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How have The Oriole Advocates escaped my attention for so long? Among many other things, they created the O's Dugout Club, a product which I have actively endorsed. Lots of other cool stuff at the site. I wonder if they would accept members from the Oriole Diaspora?

Miscellaneous Ramblings on the Orange and Black

The tie goes to Pie!

How can anyone not like Pie? Clapping like a maniac after he's safe and third and he's the first one out of the dugout to mob Aubrey Huff after his game winning hit. You can tell this guy loves to play and instead of getting down about his lack of playing time, he savors each morsel of the game like a juicy peach. Hope the guy sticks around as a 4th outfielder.

Peter Schmuck points to Pie's hustle as the key to last night's victory:

For all the complaints this year about Felix Pie, you have to give him credit for turning a pinch running assignment into a game-turning play. He flew into third to beat the throw on Brian Roberts' sacrifice bunt and that was the play that unraveled Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez. He had trouble finding the plate after that and walked Adam Jones to drive in the tying run.

Games like last night remind you why you're a fan.

Dave Trembley cannot win. He yanks Koji Uehara after 5 innings on Wednesday and gets it from the fans for having a quick hook. He lets Jason Berken pitch into the 7th and gets it from the fans for leaving him in to long.

1B Brandon Snyder is heading to Norfolk! Snyder put up a .347/.420/.607 line at Bowie and is still just 22. Nice to see some of these prospects forcing the hand of the powers that be to get promoted ahead of schedule.

Speaking of the minors, visiting this link from FirstInning.com on a daily basis gives you a one-stop shop for all the Oriole's minor league box scores from the night before. Quick way to keep up with the many Orioles top prospects.

If you're going to lie, stick with it. From this article on Mark Teixeira and his dad:

"My greatest memories as a kid were playing sports with my dad and watching sports with my dad," Teixeira said. "Going to Orioles games, watching football on TV at home -- those were great memories.

C'mon, Mark. Say it with me. "Going to Orioles games...to watch my hero, Yankees first baseman, Don Mattingly!" You gotta sell the lie and sell it hard and often.

Mark's dad was a Naval officer. I suppose I could make a cheap shot about the duplicitous nature of some Naval officers I had dealings with...but I'll refrain.


A quick word from Philadelphia:

Phillies Nation:

(The Orioles) are a team the Phillies should be able to beat. I’m expecting to see a lot of crooked numbers on the scoreboard this weekend. Bastardo might have another rough go of it, and hopefully he can mix in some more off-speed pitches and breaking balls to fool the O’s batters on Friday night.

Maybe. The Phillies have a lot of good hitters but Raul Ibanez is on the DL. The O's should be able to put up a few crooked numbers themselves. The rematch of the 1983 World Series starts today!

Man, I love when the Orioles play the NL East. 6-3 versus that division so far. Here's hoping they keep it up.




photo credit: AP

How Baltimore Can Win The East '09: The Case Against The Yankees

Oh, this will be fun...

1. A-Rod!

A-Rod's hip surgery made this post so much easier to write...

Alex Rodriguez is out until at least the end of May (edit: maybe not) and is the best bat offensive player on the team. Even if A-Rod guts it out, you can't mask a hip injury. He will probably be a diminished player when he returns. This hurts the Yanks more than they would want to admit; only Mark Teixeira could reasonable hit at A-Rod levels during any given season. And as I've said before (and I saw him up close here in Atlanta for a season), Teixeira is not the kind of player who can carry a team alone.

Right now, the Yankees third baseman would be Cody Ransom, a 33 year old journeyman with 183 career major league at bats and a .242 career minor league batting average. Just a bit of a dropoff there.

2. Posada!

Jorge Posada can't catch anymore. Who are they kidding? He's 37 with a bum elbow. He can't throw runners out anymore. If I were Dave Trembley, I'd be stealing second with every player faster than Gregg Zaun during that opening series.

He's a hitter is steep decline. He'll be lucky to hit at league average. And behind him is Jose Molina. Molina has a decent glove but not a great arm and no bat at all.

Posada will will contribute to...

3. The Bad Defense Up The Middle

Posada has been covered. Robinson Cano is a butcher at second. Derek Jeter lives off a reputation but hasn't been a great defensive shortstop in over 10 years. I don't care if you dive for the ball or not Derek; the net result is usually a single to left anyway. Melky Cabrera's defensive prowess is grossly overstated; he is a below-average centerfielder by any reputable defensive metric. Brett Gardner is a great fielder but the fans will never allow his bat (a .250-ish batting average by CHONE and MARCEL projections) is the lineup. These are not patient people. They'll boo him off the field.

In addition, Xavier Nady is just average in right and A-Rod is just average at third. Only Johnny Damon in left and Teixeira at first will be plus defenders.

4. The Elderly...

...swinging the bats. Robinson Cano will be 26 (we think), Melky Cabrera will be 24 (Brett Gardner is 25) and Mark Teixeira will be 29 in 2009. Those are the only position players who will be under 30.

Xavier Nady is 30, A-Rod is 33 (when he actually plays), Jose Molina is 34, Jeter, Damon and Matsui will be 35 and Jorge Posada will be 37.

Excessive age is not good for a club. Player's begin to decline or physically breakdown (see A-Rod now or Posada last season). Don't expect this offense to be some juggernaut. It'll be good but probably not great.

5. Robinson Cano...Hurt or Declining?

Cano's production has always been closely tied to his average (he has never walked more than 39 times in a season) and last year that production fell off a cliff.

What is interesting about this is what pitchers were doing to him in 2009. Were they throwing him a bunch of breaking stuff, getting him to chase outside of the zone? No, they were throwing him more fastballs and cutters than ever before.

The percentage of fastballs thrown to Cano went up from 55.9% to 63.2%. Cutters increased from 2.8% to 3.7% (and the amount of cutters thrown to Cano has increased every season...). They treated him like a rookie. He seems unable to catch up to any pitch approaching 90 mph.

Something's wrong there and and it can't be good...

Conclusion

The Yankees have some glaring problems (I didn't even get into the rotation that, despite all the money spent, could be very average after C.C. Sabathia) , mostly revolving around age and injury of their position players. But the Yankee's deep pockets and willingness to trade their prospects at the drop of a hat allow them to address these issues mid-season. Still, if a few bad breaks happen during the same season, the Yanks may have to blow up the team, save for the recently signed core, and start reloading for 2010 instead.

Teix is Haunting Me...

I'm really going to let all this "Teix wore his Yankee cap to Camden Yards" angst go at some point. I really am. But Teix keeps finding me and rubbing it in.

I'm just sitting here, half-watching a show about the 1995 season on the new MLB Network and, of course, they spend some time discussing Cal Ripken, Jr. and The Streak. Whose dorky voice do I hear on my TV? That's right, it's Mark Teixeira.

The graphic underneath his disproportionately large head reads, "Mark Teixeira, Grew Up in Maryland".

Here's what he said:

For me, as a kid, Cal Ripken was everything. He could do it all. I loved watching him play, and..and watching him play every single day, every single inning almost, everyday was pretty incredible.

Incidentally, they have talked about Don Mattingly on this show already. No Teix to be heard from in that segment.


Chris "Mad Dog" Russo took Teix to task on his Sirius XM Satellite Radio show on Tuesday. It was pretty funny and I found it therapeutic. (Go here to listen...)

The emperor has no clothes, Mark. We can see you.

Mark Teixeira Says Some Very Irritating Things

If you are still upset that Mark Teixeira spurned his hometown team to sign with New York, take solace in the fact that no other team really had a shot at him. You see, Teix has always been a Yankee fan and playing in New York was a lifelong dream.

"There was something about Don Mattingly," Teixeira said. "I would go to Orioles games wearing a Yankee cap. The first time I went to Yankee Stadium I was about eight or nine years old and saw Mattingly play. Donnie Baseball was my guy."

Allow that to sink in a bit. Yankee cap. Donnie Baseball.

"I would wear a Yankees hat. Back in the '80s and early '90s, that wasn't a safe thing to do in Baltimore," Teixeira joked.

It's not safe now. Not for you. Get ready to be something you have never been before. You will be hated. In Baltimore. Probably in Boston. And if you don't live up to expectations, in New York too.

Mark, I was fine with you signing elsewhere. I wasn't shocked it was the Yankees. And frankly, I didn't think tying up so much money in your salary was a good idea for the long term prospects of the Orioles' success. I was indifferent to you before. No longer.

Not only do you coyly hint that you'd love to return "home" to the Baltimore Orioles, not only do you double speak your way from Texas to Atlanta to Anaheim and New York, you actually have the gall to tell stories to the New York media about shunning Cal Ripken, Jr. and Eddie Murray for Don Mattingly and proudly wearing your Yankees cap to Memorial Stadium and Camden Yards. You didn't have to go there. It's a slap in the face to all true Oriole fans.

When you think about baseball you think about the Yankees, at least I did when I was growing up.
- Mark Teixeira

And I don't believe his story for a second. I want to see one photo of a young Mark Teixeira wearing a Yankee cap. It's a damned lie. I dare someone to find one. But you won't. Because Teix is a pathological liar.

True or not, the story is insulting to the tradition of this franchise.

Bob Lorenz is my new favorite Yankee reporter.

BL: OK, Mark. Quick pop quiz for you then. Within 50 miles, how far is it from your folks home to the Bronx?

MT: Oh...I would say...probably 290 miles.

BL: It's 220. But close enough. You'll get a parting gift at the end of the interview.

It was worth it to watch Teix squirm, if only for a second.

So boo him on Opening Day. Longly, loudly and lustily. Mark Teixeira is public enemy #1 for fans of the Black and Orange.

Just drink this in. Here's the full quote form Teix regarding his idol worship of Don Mattingly during his press conference. Enjoy.

Yeah, I think it says a lot about the Yankees organization that a kid that grew up in Baltimore, had season tickets to Baltimore Orioles games, and would cheer for every other player in the world except for Don Mattingly. Don Mattingly was my guy and people say, why not Cal? Why not Eddie? And I say I love Cal, I love Eddie, but there’s something about Don Mattingly. I would go to Orioles games, my dad would take me to O’s games and I would wear a Yankees hat. Back in the 80’s and early 90’s that wasn’t a safe thing to do in Baltimore, but it was worth it. That’s just a part of being a Yankee that there’s something above everything else, no matter where you are, no matter what stadium you’re in, there’s Yankees fans everywhere and being a Yankee there’s nothing better.

Then go look at some of these quotes from Mark over the years about the Orioles:

http://dempseysarmy.blogspot.com/2008/12/mark-teixeira-hometown-boy.html

Mark Teixeira: Hometown Boy

Mark Teixeira has signed with the New York Yankees.

Let me be the first to say....THANK GOD!

Andy MacPhail:

"The player was an exceptional player, and we sort of broke the rules trying to go after him. But really, the model that we have to follow just doesn't allow us to devote that much of our resources to one player, at least not at the present time."

He is correct. Going after Teixeira was not part of the plan that MacPhail laid out when he came to town. Build from within, focus on pitching and build a solid core before filling holes through free agency. This team is nowhere near the place where it can afford a long term, budget busting contract. You can take those kind of risks if you think you are only a year or two from serious contention. The Orioles cannot say that yet.

A long expensive contract, like the one the Yankees offered, could actually hurt this team in the long run.

Do you think the Rockies are happy that they still owe Todd Helton more than $50 million over the next three seasons? The Rockies signed him to a lucrative 9 year deal before the 2003 season. (Coincidentally, before Helton's age 29 season...just like Teixeira...) That deal looked good for the first three seasons. Not so much since. Long term deals with players approaching 30 rarely turn out very well.

And let's get one thing straight; Mark Teixeira is a very good player...but he is not a great player. He's just not. Compare his career thus far to Todd Helton, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Jason Giambi, Albert Pujols or even Chipper Jones. Teixeira just hasn't put together the monster seasons for his resume that these premier sluggers have/had by this point in their careers. And I've heard enough of this Gold Glove caliber defense Teixeira plays. Big deal. He's a first baseman. If his glove was really that hot, he'd play third. A slick fielding first baseman in modern baseball is a nice luxury but hardly impactful in any meaningful way.

I've been beating this drum for awhile now but I don't think Mark Teixeira is worthy of being one of the highest paid players in baseball. I just don't. $22.5 million a year. Think about it. You know I'm right.

I've seen this guy up close here in Atlanta. He can be an impact bat but once the losing starts, he begins to lose interest. Think he's going to stay interested if the O's keep losing for a season or two? And there's this from Ted Robinson in L.A.:

the Angels were 66-40 (.622) BEFORE Teixeira, 34-22 (.607) WITH Teixeira. Atlanta was 49-56 with Teixeira and for the record he has played in exactly one All-Star Game.

He's a nice player but he's not the kind of player who can carry a team. Even teams with far more pieces in place than the Orioles.

I am so often wrong in my predictions so I have to reach back to last February when I made this bold prediction:

I'll call it now. If Teixeira leaves Atlanta, he'll be wearing pinstripes in 2009.

Not exactly going out on a limb but far more accurate than Buster Olney or Peter Gammons!

I'll leave you with some choice Mark Teixeira quotes from the past year or so...

There are a lot of teams you may not want to be traded to, but Atlanta was definitely a team I was happy to come play for. I was here for college at Georgia Tech, and even spent a year (living) here after college. That made the comfort level that much greater. My wife, Leigh, and her family are from (Georgia, Habersham County north of Atlanta), and we both went to school here and still have friends living in Atlanta.
- Teixeira on playing in Atlanta

That would really be a dream come true.
- Teixeira on playing for Baltimore, March 2007

The Orioles are close to my heart.
- Mark Teixeira, May 2008

In a year and a half, we'll have some fun conversations. Baltimore, obviously in the future, is a place I'd love to look at.
- Mark Teixeira, July 2007

I thought I'd be here the rest of my career. I really wanted to stay here, but business is business, and it's time for me to move on.
- Mark Teixeira on his time in Atlanta

(They're) the best team in baseball.
- Mark Teixeira on the Anaheim Angels

What Will Daniel Cabrera Look Like as a National?

With Daniel Cabrera moving down the road to the Nationals, I wondered what he might look like next season. Not literally. Literally he'll look like a 6'7" guy from the Dominican Republic with a red cap. But how will he fare pitching in Nationals Park?

To begin, I'll steal some work by Derek Carty at The Hardball Times who did a study earlier this year on the effect that switching leagues had on pitchers. Using his formula on Cabrera's 2008 stats, we may get an idea of what he'll do for Washington in 2009.

               K/9  BB/9   HR/F   LOB%   LD%   GB%   IF/F   ERA   ERA+
Cabrera '08    4.5  4.2    12.7%  72.4%  19.7% 48.0% 7.7%   5.25   86
Cabrera WSN    5.1  3.7    12.9%  72.9%  20.1% 48.3% 7.8%   4.86   88

If you're going to face a pitcher every ninth at bat, in addition to banjo-hitting bench players and defensive specialists, you would expect to have a better ERA. The changes for most of these rate stats are marginal and they go both for and against the pitcher. Where Daniel is helped is by the slight uptick in K's he can expect and a supposed drop in walks. Cabrera has dropped his walk rate every year for the past three seasons but I don't see it dropping this much next season. With less imposing hitters in the lineup, there is less chance of a pitcher "pitching around" batters but I don't think Daniel ever consciously did that. You have to know where the ball is going to pitch around a guy.

Barring the long-awaited quantum leap, Cabrera will provide the Nationals what he provided for the Orioles last year; a mercurial season with more than 180 IP and an ERA+ in the high 80's. Oh, he'll be their second best pitcher too.

(I have a moratorium on the whole Teixeira deal, much like I finally did for Brian Roberts and Erik Bedard trade rumors last season. I'll comment on it once it's done...)

All Teixeira, All The Time

ESPN's Karl Ravech reports that Teixeira is weighing all offers but has "an enormous attraction to the Orioles."

Only mentioning this because this is the first report I've heard where Teixeira is expressing to his agent a preference for Baltimore and not just giving lip service to the local press. Interesting.

Mark Teixeira: Everybody Breathe...

Mark Teixeira has not signed yet and many Oriole fans are freaking out. It's a state of panic really as even completely absurd and unfounded rumors of Teixeira attending the Ravens-Steelers game with Peter Angelos gets serious play in the Baltimore Sun and on MASN.

Easy, people. As I've said before, he's not coming anyway. This will not be some colossal failure on the part of The Warehouse. He has no intention of coming to play for a loser. He's done that already. Even if Baltimore greatly outbids everybody (which would be foolish), he's still not "coming home".(Although, at $20 mil per instead of $25 mil, I'd feel a little better about the deal.)

Secondly, he's hardly worth that kind of money and length of contract. Not for Baltimore. Teixeira is not the kind of guy who is going to rally a team and "show them how to win". He plays hard when he's interested, not so much when he isn't. He'll lose interest pretty fast in Baltimore, believe me. Does anybody think he's Roy Hobbs?

And have we forgotten that one big signing does not mean the team will suddenly start winning? Has everyone forgotten Miguel Tejada already? Can Teixeira pitch? Because last I checked we have one starting pitcher set for next season. One. I don't care if we do a direct swap of lineups with the Red Sox, they'll still finish with a better record next year because of their rotation and bullpen. (More on the pitching later...)

This team is not contending next year, not without a miraculous development from the pitchers in their farm system. There's no sense in throwing a lot of money, over a lot of years at one player. Not yet.

So let's keep this in perspective. If Teixeira does not come to Baltimore, it's not a disaster.

Buster Olney takes it a step further. He says the Orioles should not even be at the table in the Teixeira bidding...and I have to say I agree with him.

But history tells us, over and over and over, that winning -- as in contending -- is what really draws fans to your ballpark, not some shiny bauble. Cal Ripken single-handedly drew fans to Camden Yards at the end of his career. With all due respect to Teixeira, he is not Ripken. He is not Barry Bonds. Few players have that kind of box-office allure...

The Orioles' payroll in 2008 was about $68 million, and if they were to sign Teixeira, that would climb to about $80 million, with the first baseman accounting for a quarter of that. Yet they still would be two or three topflight starting pitchers short of contending with the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees. They still would be two or three top-flight starting pitchers short of contending with the Jays for fourth place.

And I can say the following confidently, having worked as a sportswriter in Baltimore and having some understanding of the multilayered depth of knowledge in the Orioles' fan base: Until the team starts winning again, nobody will show up at Camden Yards. Signing Teixeira would not draw the the O's demonstrably closer to contending because they are so short in starting pitching. In fact, the signing of the first baseman could ultimately hurt them, because in two or three years, as the Orioles' young pitching begins to rise to the big leagues and the team needs pieces to augment the improved rotation, Teixeira's salary would restrict the kinds of moves the Orioles will make.

Yep. Pretty much.

Base Hits: 11/14/2008

Aubrey Huff has won the 2008 Silver Slugger award for DH and deservedly so. Before the season, I described Huff as a "hitter in decline" but I was wrong, at least for last year.

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The West Oahu Canefires will play in the Hawaiian League Championship game on Sunday. Oriole prospects haven't had a lot to do with their success (Tim Bascom, for instance, has been horrible) with the bright spot being 3B Tyler Henson hitting .261 with 16 RBI and a team high 25 walks. Adam Loewen plays for the Canefires too. He is hitting .143 with no extra base hits. And he's been hit by a pitch three times in just 8 games. Good!

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Sarasota has hammered out a proposal worth more than $30 million to become the Spring Training home for the Baltimore Orioles after two days of meetings with Oriole officials. The offer has yet to be voted on by the Lee County Commission before the offer is official.

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Former Oriole manager and universal sad-sack Sam Perlozzo has joined the Charlie Manuel's staff with the Philadelphia Phillies. God help them.

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A clip from Dave Sheinin's Nationals Journal blog as the free agent season begins. (The Nationals seem to think they have a legitimate shot at signing Mark Teixeira...oookay...)

*The Nationals' chief competitors might be just up the road in Baltimore. Someone who speaks to Peter Angelos regularly told me that he has never seen him so fixated on a player as he is on Teixeira. Others have told me that Angelos has been asking everyone in baseball what they think of Teixeira.

My educated guess is that the Orioles will end up making the highest bid for Teixeira.

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Song of the Week: Bringing a little country feel into the mix with the excellent alt country band out of Athens, GA, Drive-By Truckers with "Gravity's Gone" Have a nice weekend.

Dunn vs. Teixeira: A Closer Look

Desert O of Weaver's Tantrum suggested that I take a closer look at Teixeira vs. Dunn. There certainly isn't anything else going on as far as the Orioles are concerned...so here it is.

I decided to look at the last four years for the two players. All stats cumulative for the last four seasons and rankings are compiled for MLB OF, 1B and DHs (As an aside, Teixeira and Dunn will both be 29 for the 2009 season.)

The lines for each player for the last four seasons:

Teixeira   .299/.389/.550
Dunn       .254/.381/.524
 

Dunn seems lacking from those numbers alone, mostly based on his batting average, an average that is incorporated into the slugging and on-base averages too.

Let's look more closely at one of Dunn's other shortcomings, his strikeouts.

SO

Dunn       691
Howard     679
.
.
Teixeira   457
 

Dunn is the clear leader in strikeouts over the past four years, only Ryan Howard comes close. Teixeira is way down on the list at 14th.

However, if you look at it a different way, the strikeouts aren't so bad. Total outs over the last four years:

Outs

10. Teixeira   1700
.
.
16. Dunn       1656
 

How does Dunn manage to come in under Teixeira? Well, if you strikeout, you don't ground into a double play. But mostly it's the insane walk rate.

BB

Dunn       449
Burrell    414
Ortiz      402
.
.
Teixeira   330
 

Dunn walks a ton which puts him squarely in the 100-100 club every year. He is, if you follow this blog, the kind of player I have a soft spot for. It also increases his value over your typical .250 hitter. He simply does not make a lot of outs.

Oh yeah, he can jack 'em too.

Homeruns

Howard     175
Dunn       160
Ortiz      159
Pujols     159
Soriano    144
 

Teixeira is down the list at 139...Dunn holds the advantage in terms of pure power when you take batting average out of the equation as the ISO numbers show.

ISO (Isolated Power)

4. Dunn        .279
.
.
11. Teixeira   .251
 

Next is Runs Created and Extra Bases. Tex is clearly superior here but Dunn is no slouch.

Runs Created

3.  Teixeira   510
.
.
10. Dunn       459
 

Extra Bases

4. Teixeira    305
.
.
11. Dunn       273
 

Who's the better all-around hitter? Teixeira is and I think that's clear. But Teixeira is thought to be looking at contract offers of $23-25 million per year. Dunn, according to most sources, will probably get a deal in the $12-13 million per year range.

Is Teixeira twice as good as Dunn? I don't think so. If you're the Orioles, it's all about value on the free agent market this offseason. Dunn offers some pretty good bang for the buck if you want to avoid the big bidding wars.

O's Win Again

The umps tried to sabotage the evening by ejecting D-Cab during one of his very rare good outings. But the O's won anyway and will take the series with the Yanks.

I hope the Yanks fall a couple games short of the postseason. Baltimore could point back to these games with pride.

But that's not what I'm here to talk about...

*****

Bill Ordine continues to perpetuate the Mark Teixeira-may-come-to-Baltimore myth. Though he is hardly alone.

Let's set this straight. He's not coming and we don't want him! Not at $20mil per!

Tex doesn't want to come here. All that "Aw shucks, it's be great to play for the hometown team. Gawrsh, that'd be neat!" is just Tex being polite. Or being duplicitous. He says nice things about every team that shows the slightest interest.

An example from Buster Olney's ESPN blog:

"Inside the clubhouse, it was awkward. An hour before the game, with teammates in earshot, Teixeira gushed to reporters that the Angels were "the best team in baseball." While also being complimentary of his former teammates, it had a strange ring. Braves coaches recognized the situation and ushered Braves players into other areas of the clubhouse."

What a great guy. He'll say great things about whatever city he's asked about. Even at the expense of his current teammates.

More from Tex from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

"I thought I'd be here the rest of my career," he said of Atlanta. "I really wanted to stay here, but business is business, and it's time for me to move on."

Teixeira said he had been "open" to hearing offers from the Braves all season, but got none. Wren said the Braves didn't believe they could re-sign him after making an "aggressive" offer during spring training and having it rejected.

The GM said the offer would have made Teixeira one of the game's highest paid players. He is making $12.5 million this season in his last year of arbitration.

Let's see. You thought you'd spend the rest of your career here but rejected an offer from the Braves that would have made you one of the game's highest paid players. You need a shovel handy when Tex talks to the press.

The guy seems to think he's a player who is the caliber of Albert Pujols or A-Rod. He's not.

*****

Bye Roch. We'll miss you.

Mark Teixeira: He's Not Coming and We Don't Want Him

The relative success of the 2008 season has some Oriole fans starting to talk about the possibility of the Orioles signing Mark Teixeira in the offseason again. I have detailed before why he's not coming but I don't think I've gone into why we Oriole fans shouldn't want him here.

First, you have to understand that he will be commanding a salary somewhere in the neighborhood of $20 million a year. If Andruw Jones can command $18 million per year, Teixeira can command more than that without blinking an eye.

So what are you buying for your money? Presumably, a team is going to pay a premium for Teixeira to get a bonafide slugging first baseman.

Fine. Texieira may be that man. But since the year he hit 43 home runs for Texas, his home run numbers have been in decline. Since 2005, he has hit 43, 33 and 30. He is on a pace to hit just 24 this year. And during his best years for Texas, his home/road splits were quite dramatic.

          Home OPS     Road OPS
2004          .967        .893
2005         1.109        .809

His Isolated Power (ISO) has been in steady decline too. Since 2004:

        ISO
2004    .279
2005    .274
2006    .232
2007    .257
2008    .175

The ISO for 2007 would look even worse if not for the red-hot August and September Teixeira had once he got to Atlanta. He posted ISOs of .325 and .268 respectively.

That success has not carried into this year. .276 AVG, 10 HR, slugging .448. Not the numbers of premier major league slugger. But he will be expecting to be paid like a premier major league slugger.

I think Mark Texieira is a good hitter. He will probably be a good component for a team that is already good. If I thought the O's were one hitter away from contending, maybe my opinion would be different. But the Orioles are not just one hitter away. And he's not going to be the man. He's not going to be a dominant hitter. And he's certainly not a good bet to be that kind of hitter over the course of a 7-year/$140 million contract.