Ballpark Hazards:Beware the Moldy Hot Dog Buns

Saturday night this tweet and attached picture came across my feed in TweetDeck:

Pretty vile, no? I can't ever remember seeing something like that in 20+ years of attending baseball games.

This could have been a black eye for the concession staff at Nationals Park but they turned it into a positive. When I contacted @wikipublius for a followup, he stated that when they pointed the problem out to the person at the concession, they were given a replacement dog and a free beer. No excuses, just apologies and an immediate attempt to make it right.

So while the Nats could probably use a bit better quality control for their food service, they certainly made up for it with customer service. wikipublius also wanted to give the food at Nationals Park one more positive comment: the variety of food offered is much better than the concessions at Camden Yards.

What Will Daniel Cabrera Look Like as a National?

With Daniel Cabrera moving down the road to the Nationals, I wondered what he might look like next season. Not literally. Literally he'll look like a 6'7" guy from the Dominican Republic with a red cap. But how will he fare pitching in Nationals Park?

To begin, I'll steal some work by Derek Carty at The Hardball Times who did a study earlier this year on the effect that switching leagues had on pitchers. Using his formula on Cabrera's 2008 stats, we may get an idea of what he'll do for Washington in 2009.

               K/9  BB/9   HR/F   LOB%   LD%   GB%   IF/F   ERA   ERA+
Cabrera '08    4.5  4.2    12.7%  72.4%  19.7% 48.0% 7.7%   5.25   86
Cabrera WSN    5.1  3.7    12.9%  72.9%  20.1% 48.3% 7.8%   4.86   88

If you're going to face a pitcher every ninth at bat, in addition to banjo-hitting bench players and defensive specialists, you would expect to have a better ERA. The changes for most of these rate stats are marginal and they go both for and against the pitcher. Where Daniel is helped is by the slight uptick in K's he can expect and a supposed drop in walks. Cabrera has dropped his walk rate every year for the past three seasons but I don't see it dropping this much next season. With less imposing hitters in the lineup, there is less chance of a pitcher "pitching around" batters but I don't think Daniel ever consciously did that. You have to know where the ball is going to pitch around a guy.

Barring the long-awaited quantum leap, Cabrera will provide the Nationals what he provided for the Orioles last year; a mercurial season with more than 180 IP and an ERA+ in the high 80's. Oh, he'll be their second best pitcher too.

(I have a moratorium on the whole Teixeira deal, much like I finally did for Brian Roberts and Erik Bedard trade rumors last season. I'll comment on it once it's done...)

Like Nailbiters? Get Used To Them...

When your pitching is respectable but your offense can't seem to hit the ball with authority, close games are what you're going to get. Baltimore had three extra base hits on Sunday for the first time in over a week. Every other team in the AL did this at least once this weekend. The O's have only hit one homer over the last week. Only the woeful White Sox offense keeps the O's from being last in the league in slugging.

How did this happen? Even before the injuries to the pitching staff, the offense figured to be more of a sure thing heading into the season. It's been anything but.

Here's the SLG for the key offensive players for this year and from last year:

             2007  2006
Hernandez    .380  .479
Markakis     .426  .448
Millar       .425  .437
Roberts      .401  .410
Huff         .389  .478
Tejada       .378  .498
Gibbons      .374  .458
Payton       .371  .418
Patterson    .309  .443
Mora         .428  .391

So only Millar, Mora and Roberts are doing about what you would expect from them based on last year. Huff, Tejada, Patterson and Hernandez are all at least 90 percentage points lower than last year. This team is getting no power from the guys expected to drive in runs. That's how you collect 12 hits but only get 3 runs for you trouble.

Looking on the bright side, given Baltimore's futility at the plate and all their pitching woes, they are only four games under .500 which is miraculous at this point. If the bats start to come around there is still time to salvage the season but time is getting short.

More from this weekend: It's time to mention Jeremy Guthrie in the same breath as Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera and Adam Lowen when talking about the O's rotation of the future. Another monster game from Guthrie on Saturday as he scattered 4 hits, struck out 10 and walked none. He didn't get the decision but he shut the Nationals down. Is he another Bruce Chen or is he legit? I don't know for sure. He looked to me to be a guy who teams would figure out the second time through the lineup but that has not been the case. Will the league catch up? I still have a feeling they will but I'd love to be wrong.

Erik Bedard was a monster today too. He struck out 12 and walked three while surrendering a lone run but the bullpen blew it for him today. And for good measure, he collected two hits and drove in a run.

Mr. Reluctant is looking bad these days. He gave up two runs today and takes the loss as the Nats pulled ahead in the 8th. Baez also started the Mother's Day Massacre rally last Sunday and made Friday night's win two runs closer than it needed to be by giving up a homer to Ryan Zimmerman. Before the season, I pointed to Baez as the weakest link of the relief pitchers signed in the offseason and so far he is proving me right.

A day off today, hopefully the O's hit the batting cages. And muscle up on the ball. The Blue Jays and A's are coming to town, two teams that aren't any better then we are...