Final WAR Spreadsheet for Orioles 2010

 And here they are. They reflect the recent roster changes and the possible injury situations:

Again, all of these projections are from CHONE (typically the most pessimistic of the projection systems) except for Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters who were bumped up a bit.

That's 80.6 wins. With some health and some good luck, this could be a winning club. I stand by my earlier assessment.

Giving Credit Where Credit is Due

Randall: When the rebels blew up the first Death Star...


Dante: Luke Skywalker. I like giving credit where credit is due.


- Clerks


Not that there was a ton of success for the Orioles in 2009 but I was curious where the credit was due. Andy MacPhail has remade the Orioles in his image since he arrived in 2007 but how much and how successfully? Which GMs made the trades, signings and draft picks that shaped the Orioles in 2009?

I decided to measure it in terms of WAR for 2009 only. Here's the snapshot for the hitters.

Batting
                          WAR
MacPhail                  7.0
Duquette\Flanagan         2.5
Beattie\Flanagan          3.1
Frank Wren                3.4

As expected, MacPhail is responsible for much of the good play in 2009 led by Adam Jones, Luke Scott and Felix Pie. Lou Montanez and Ty Wigginton did not help his cause.

The Jim Beattie/Mike Flanagan combo was responsible for Nick Markakis and Nolan Reimold. The Jim Duquette/Flanagan combo was aided by the drafting of Matt Wieters, one of the last things they did before getting dismissed. Without it, they would be responsible for only 0.6 WAR from the offense less than two years after being dismissed. Frank Wren will always have Brian Roberts.

The pitching:

Pitching
                          WAR
MacPhail                  4.5
Duquette\Flanagan         1.8
Beattie\Flanagan          0.7
Syd Thrift                0.5

Here's where MacPhail really shines. What little success the O's had on the mound can be attributed to him even with Brian Bass and Alfredo Simon pulling things down. Koji Uehara, George Sherrill and Brian Matusz lead the way on the positive side.

Duquette and Flanagan found Jeremy Guthrie and drafted Jason Berken. They also signed Danys Baez and Jamie Walker. Beattie/Flanagan drafted Brad Bergesen but got pulled down by David Hernandez, Bob McCrory and Rad Liz. Syd Thrift is living on Jim Johnson.

MacPhail obviously has an advantage as he has way more players contributing than the others. A breakdown of WAR per player:

WAR/Player
MacPhail                .44
Duquette\Flanagan       .53
Beattie\Flanagan        .48

But this is also skewed a bit since players who don't produce don't last long. MacPhail's guys are still working things out.

What's the conclusion? Probably nothing to be learned here...yet. MacPhail has added impact players to the previous regimes (previous GMs added Markakis, Wieters, Roberts, Bergesen, Reimold) with Jones, Pie, Scott, Matusz, even the glove of Cesar Izturis. But, unsurprisingly, the key will be the young arms and how many pan out to be even average MLB starters.

Revising my Initial WAR Projections for 2010

I'm a one trick pony these days but it's the slowest part of the offseason...so another WAR post as we try to peer into the murky future...

My initial WAR projections projected the Orioles to possess a Win Talent of 83. Others, whose opinion I respect, thought that my projections were too optimistic given the pitching staff Baltimore would field. (Keep in mind, I was quite pessimistic last season compared to most...)

I then decided to scale back my projections a bit. I decided to use CHONE projections which tend to be less optimistic than Bill James in general and revisit the pitching projections with a more critical eye.

Hitters

I did CHONE projections straight down the line except for playing time. I adjusted Adam Jones' playing time down (450 PA) because he has yet to play a full season and I wanted to be reasonable about the possibility of injury. Before changing my pitching and with only two minor tweaks to the batters, this still left my Win Talent at 81.6.

The tweaks: Nick Markakis is NOT a sub-.850 OPS player. Sorry, I don't buy it. So I nudged his numbers up to an .850 OPS. Also, I do not believe Matt Wieters is a sub-.800 OPS hitter in 2010. I adjusted his offensive numbers up to an equivalent of .825 OPS. (BTW, ZiPS predicted an .827 OPS for Wieters before the 2009 season, comparing him to Johnny Bench. This season, ZiPS has him at at .773 OPS. What changed? 385 PAs in the majors? I think we have to take projections on rookies and young players in general with a grain of salt...)

Here is the lineup with rough batting lines:

            PA    AVG   OBP    SLG    OPS
C 
Wieters     550   .289  .350   .475   .825
Moeller     145   .240  .300   .330   .630

1B
Wigginton   550   .269  .323   .446   .769
Atkins      145   .257  .326   .410   .736

2B
Roberts     645   .275  .355   .430   .785
Andino       50   .244  .299   .365   .664

SS
Izturis     600   .261  .306   .342   .648
Andino       95   .244  .299   .365   .664

3B
Atkins      500   .257  .326   .410   .736
Wigginton    50   .269  .323   .446   .769
Bell        145   .231  .299   .362   .661

LF
Reimold     500   .275  .355   .477   .832
Pie         150   .267  .327   .421   .748
Scott        45   .256  .335   .469   .804

CF
Jones       450   .283  .338   .472   .810
Pie         245   .267  .327   .421   .748

RF
Markakis    695   .304  .369   .481   .850

DH
Reimold     245   .275  .355   .477   .832
Scott       400   .256  .335   .469   .804
Wigginton    50   .269  .323   .446   .769

The Pitching

I went back over my pitching with a fine toothed comb looking for holes. Here's what I came up with for the rotation, all ERA's are in terms of FIP.

I have Jeremy Guthrie penciled in for 190 innings, fewer than he had last season. Guthrie has pitched more innings each season in the majors, even when he has struggled. (He pitched 200 innings in '09.) I can't imagine he will be as bad as he was last year, nor quite as good as his first two seasons. I bumped his FIP up to 4.80 but left everything else alone.

My Kevin Millwood projection makes sense. I only have him down for 165 innings figuring he will break down a bit during the season. 4.80 FIP was what he had last season and is the highest he has had for a full season. It's reasonable to think that projection is sound.

Matusz doesn't seem to be the kind to get hurt...just not that kind of pitcher. Still, I only have him down for 170 innings...guess I could bump that to 165 and bump his 4.00 FIP up a quarter run, well above fan projections, Bill James and his performance last year. The guy is "pitcher" in the truest sense of the word...I see him improving, not backsliding.

Chris Tillman struck me as the likeliest candidate for injury and/or struggles. Not sure exactly why I feel that why but he looks like he overthrows at times and he will be just 22 next season. I knocked down his innings and bumped up the FIP.

Brad Bergesen is a poor man's Rick Porcello. He may not be as good as last year but I don't think he's going to go the Josh Towers route either. He's a groundball machine and he walks virtually nobody. I bumped the FIP up a bit but I think he pitches his fair share of innings at the back of the rotation.

That's a pretty solid rotation, a bunch of guys who, barring injury, have the opportunity to stay in the rotation all season despite any struggles they may have. All will pitch 140+ innings with guys like Jake Arrieta, Troy Patton, Jason Berken and David Hernandez ready to take the mound in case of injury. No one should get rushed up from Norfolk or Bowie this season.

The addition of Mike Gonzalez makes the core of the Oriole bullpen much better. We could debate the merits of Baltimore paying a premium for a "closer" this offseason but adding Gonzalez to Jim Johnson, Koji Uehara and Kam Mickolio makes a formidable core. Add Cla Meredith, Mark Hendrickson, David Hernandez and Matt Albers and you have a solid, if not great relief corp. And I think that the O's have some intriguing arms in Norfolk this season like Jim Miller, Alberto Castillo, Armando Gabino and Wilfrido Perez.

Projections for primary rotation and relief:

            IP     ERA
Guthrie     190    4.80
Millwood    165    4.80
Tillman     140    5.50
Matusz      165    4.25
Bergesen    170    4.40

Gonzalez     65    3.50
Johnson      70    4.20
Uehara       50    3.85
Mickolio     50    4.50
Hendrickson  70    4.75
Meredith     45    4.22
Hernandez    60    5.25

Now, take a look back at all those projections. What's your impression? Optimistic? Unrealistic? Pie in the sky?

I think not. I think they're fairly pessimistic if anything. And I still get...80 wins.

Obviously, injury is always a concern. The Orioles are not very deep and a rash of serious injuries lands Baltimore back in the basement chasing 100 losses again. But if the young core holds and improves even modestly, this team will at least flirt with .500 this season.

Of course, we'll adjust this as the Orioles get closer to Opening Day and the roster comes into focus.

My updated 2010 WAR Spreadsheet is here.

Looking Back at My WAR Predictions for 2009...

I was preparing my WAR spreadsheet for 2010 and took a look at my 2009 sheet. I won't go over every gory detail but thought I would list a few I got right and a few I got really, really wrong.

Best Predictions for Hitters:

Matt Wieters

Predicted: 2.0 WAR
Actual: 1.9 WAR

I tempered my enthusiasm and basically got this right. A slow start but a furious finish is pretty much what I expected.

Cesar Izturis

Predicted 1.2 WAR
Actual: 1.3 WAR

He was who we thought he was. Flashy glove and not much else.

Brian Roberts

Predicted: 3.6 WAR
Actual: 3.4 WAR

Another steady year from Roberts. Pretty easy to figure this one.

Worst Batter Projections:

Aubrey Huff

Predicted: 1.7 WAR
Actual: -0.4 WAR

I thought Huff would take a big step back from 2008 but I didn't see the utter collapse. Ouch.

Nick Markakis

Predicted: 6.1 WAR
Actual: 2.2 WAR

I predicted, loudly and often, that Markakis would have a breakout year in 2009. Instead, he took a step back.

Ryan Freel

Predicted: 0.7 WAR
Actual: -0.2 WAR

I didn't expect big things from Freel but thought he would add some value (mostly defensive) up the middle. No chance.

I won't even bother doing the pitchers. Sure, I got Uehara's value right but the rest of the rotation and bullpen was such a mess, there was no way to predict who would be pitching by the time September rolled around.

If you want to see more, my 2009 WAR Spreadsheet is here.

Oriole Trade Monitor: A Bit of Perspective

As you may know, I update the Oriole Trade Monitors throughout the season to show how certain trades are working out for Baltimore. I measure the values in terms of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) but I realize that is hard for most people to quantify in real life terms without a frame of reference.

So here's a frame of reference. The Glenn Davis trade of 1991, measured in WAR. Totals listed include all seasons played from the day the trade was made.

Glenn Davis: 0.1 WAR

Curt Schilling: 69.8 WAR
Pete Harnisch: 16.6 WAR
Steve Finley: 40.4 WAR

That's what a lopsided trade looks like. The Orioles gave up 126.8 WAR in talent and got just 0.1 in return. They gave up 1,268 times the value they got back!

On a happier note, the 1976 trade with the Yankees that netted Baltimore, among others, catcher Rick Dempsey. WAR is for years played with New York and Baltimore only.

Tippy Martinez: 6.0 WAR
Rudy May: 2.1 WAR
Scott McGregor: 17.5 WAR
Rick Dempsey: 20.1 WAR
Dave Pagan: -1.5 WAR

Doyle Alexander: 1.1 WAR
Jimmy Freeman: o.o WAR
Ellie Hendricks: 0.2 WAR
Ken Holtzman: -2.8 WAR
Grant Jackson: 1.6 WAR

The O's won this one 45.7 to 0.1. Yep, Rick Dempsey turned out to be the gem of that deal for Baltimore.

Hopefully, this exercise gives a bit of perspective to the Oriole Trade Monitors.

Historical WAR data taken from BaseballProjection.com. Trade data from Baseball-Reference.com.

Trade Value Calculator: Estimated Oriole Trade Values

A quick look at some trade values of current Oriole players using the Trade Value Calculator developed by Sky Kalkman at Beyond the Box Score. For a more detailed analysis of individual players, see the series frostking is putting together at Camden Crazies, I believe he is using the same calculator.

The rundown:

Aubrey Huff     
    
Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M) Arb %
2009  $4.0    0.2  $1.1   -$2.9    $4.0
2010                
2011     
2012     
2013     
2014     
2015     
2016     
FA Picks                  $2.5  
Total $4.0    0.2  $3.6  -$0.4 


George Sherrill     
    
Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M) Arb %
2009  $2.8   1.5  $7.0    $4.2    $2.8
2010  $4.0   1.0  $4.7    $0.7    $4.0
2011  $4.3   1.0  $4.9    $0.7    $4.3
2012     
2013     
2014     
2015     
2016     
FA Picks                  $2.5  
Total $11.0  3.5 $19.1    $8.1 


Melvin Mora     
    
Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M) Arb %
2009  $4.5   0.4  $2.0   -$2.5    $4.5
2010  $9.0   0.8  $3.8   -$5.2    $9.0
2011          
2012     
2013     
2014     
2015     
2016     
FA Picks                  $2.5  
Total $13.5  1.2  $8.3   -$5.2 


Oscar Salazar     
    
Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M) Arb %
2009  $0.2   0.2  $1.1    $1.0    $0.2
2010  $0.4   1.5  $7.2    $6.8    $0.4
2011  $3.0   1.6  $7.6    $4.6           40%
2012  $4.8   1.7  $8.1    $3.2           60%
2013  $6.8   1.8  $8.5    $1.7           80%
2014     
2015     
2016     
FA Picks                  $0.0  
Total $15.2  6.8 $32.4   $17.2 


Danys Baez     
    
Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M) Arb %
2009  $2.7   0.0  $0.2   -$2.5    $2.7
2010 
2011     
2012     
2013     
2014     
2015     
2016     
FA Picks                  $0.0  
Total $2.7  0.0   $0.6   -$2.1 


Cla Meredith     
    
Year Sal (M) WAR Val (M) Net (M) Sal (M) Arb %
2009  $0.2   0.2  $1.1    $0.9    $0.2
2010  $1.1   0.5  $2.7    $1.6            40%
2011  $1.6   0.5  $2.7    $1.1            60%
2012  $2.1   0.5  $2.7    $0.5            80%
2013     
2014     
2015     
2016     
FA Picks                  $0.0  
Total $5.0   1.7  $9.1    $4.1 

Obviously, I made some assumptions for these calculations but I don't think they're crazy.

Aubrey Huff, at current production is a huge drain. Most of his remaining value is tied up in the fact that he may be a Type B free agent and garner the O's a draft pick if he walks. But you'd have to offer Huff arbitration for that to happen and he just might take it...

Sherrill has a ton of value due mostly to the fact that he remains under arbitration for the next three years. The Orioles should get good value for him if they plan to move him.

Mora is abysmal and in this calculation I have the O's picking up his option for 2010. Eeesh. I put him at a Type B free agent but I must have been smoking crack. No way he qualifies and no way Baltimore offers him arbitration.

Look show much value Oscar Salazar provides relative to his salary. I was very conservative with his production too; modest production in a platoon role. I think he could have been more but that ship has sailed.

That's right. Danys Baez has 0.0 WAR undoing all the good from the beginning of the season. He has little real value, antyhing Baltimore receives would be a bonus.

There's Cla Meredith. I'm being optimistic about his perofrmance. Still valuable if he can be slightly above average.

WAR Graph of Greatest Oriole Pitchers

(just click on the graph to get an image you can actually read...)

These are the top four Oriole pitching careers in terms of WAR. The seasons are arranged from greatest to least, not in chronological order.

As you can see, (and it's no surprise) Jim Palmer stands alone. Mussina is in the next tier although if he had remained an Oriole he probably would have bene the career WAR leader for Baltimore even though he never reached the heights that Palmer did.

Next is Dave McNally who suffered from a sharp decline. People remember Milt Pappas, almost like a punchline, as the player the Orioles sent to the Reds to acquire Frank Robinson. Pappas was a hell of a pitcher.

Trade Monitors: The Overhaul, The Update

I am updating and changing up the Oriole Trade Monitor and will switching over to WAR instead of Win Shares for measurement of trade value. There are two reasons for this:

1) Win Shares are no longer being updated at The Hardball Times
2) WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is readily available on FanGraphs.com and is probably a better metric and easier to understand. It also allows for negative numbers which I think makes sense for these comparisons.

So, on with the switch, starting with the oldest trades first, in terms of WAR.


SP Kris Benson from the Mets for RP Jorge Julio and SP John Maine


Benson - 0.8 WAR

Julio - 0.0 WAR
Maine - 5.0 WAR

Benson was decent for one year, then got hurt. The principle player the Orioles gave up (Julio) was merely average for the Mets. John Maine, a throw in, has been basically an average NL starter which makes this trade a landslide for the Mets.

SP Rodrigo Lopez to the Rockies for RP Jim Miller and RP Jason Burch


Lopez - 1.1


Miller - 0.1
Burch - 0.0


At the time, the return for Lopez didn't look like much. But Lopez wasn't much himself. He pitched OK for Colorado when he wasn't hurt but was hurt a lot and only pitched one year for them.

Jim Miller on the other hand has shown flashes on the majors and AAA that he may be a serviceable big league reliever. He currently has a 1.73 ERA and 14 saves over 26 appearances for Norfolk. Jason Burch is no longer with the organization.

SS Miguel Tejada to the Astros for OF Luke Scott, RP Dennis Sarfate, RP Matt Albers, SP Troy Patton, 3B Mike Costanzo


Tejada - 4.5


Scott - 3.3
Sarfate - -0.1
Albers - 0.5
Patton - 0
Costanzo - 0


Tejada is not the player he used to be but he provides good offense at a premium defensive position (where his glove is still OK) thus nice WAR number.


Based on his decline and contract, getting anything for Tejada at the time he was traded was a bonus. Getting Luke Scott and giving him a chance to play turned out to be a genius move. Scott has played well in LF (at least last season), been a productive slugger and is a fan favorite to boot. Matt Albers is inconsistent but has been good overall. I think Albers is going to be a pretty good reliever. Dennis Sarfate has a great arm but needs work on his control. Troy Patton has recovered from shoulder surgery and has made it back to AAA. Mike Costanzo got sent back to Bowie earlier in the year. Nice glove, bad bat.



SP Erik Bedard to the Mariners for CF Adam Jones, SP Chris Tillman, RP George Sherrill, RP Kam Mickolio, RP Tony Butler


Bedard - 2.7


Jones - 3.8
Sherrill - 0.8
Tillman - 0
Mickolio - 0
Butler - 0


Bedard was having a nice season but is on the DL yet again.


Adam Jones continues to widen the gap. If MacPhail had traded Bedard for Jones straight up this deal would look like a heist. But they also got George Sherrill and turned him into a serviceable closer and Chris Tillman is the best pitching prospect in the Oriole system. Tillman is a heartbeat away from Baltimore, dominating AAA lineups at the age of 22. Mickolio is doing well at Norfolk posting a 3.81 ERA in 21 games. Tony Butler pitched in low A last season and is currently injured.



C Ramon Hernandez to the Reds for UT Ryan Freel, 3B Brandon Waring and 2B/SS Justin Turner


Hernandez - -0.1


Freel - -0.2
Waring - 0
Turner - 0

Addition by subtraction with Hernandez but Freel did plenty of damage during his short Oriole tenure. I thought Hernandez might hit a little in Cincinnati but hasn't and hasn't even been the primary catcher for the team reducing his value even more.


Brandon Waring is posting a .262/.345/.485 line in Frederick but is a little old for the league. Justin Turner has posted a .301/.356/.374 line in Norfolk, OK for a middle infielder. I've seen him play short twice and he looks pretty good in the field. He may turn out to be a nice utility man in a couple years.



SP Garrett Olson, RP Henry Williamson to the Cubs for OF Felix Pie


Olson - -0.3
Williamson - 0


Pie - 0


The Cubs shipped Olson almost immediately to Seattle for Aaron Heilman (who has been mediocre at best) and Olson has bounced between Seattle and AAA Tacoma this season. He's been a bit below average in the majors. Henry Williamson is doing well for A+ Daytona but he is a bit old for the league too.


Pie has had limited opportunities but his defense had offset the bad bat to provide replacement level production.



SP Hayden Penn to the Marlins for UT Robert Andino


Penn - -0.2


Andino - 0.3


I didn't like this trade at the time but Penn stunk in Florida and continues to stink for New Orleans. Andino's glove at short more than offsets the anemic bat and has given the Orioles good value so far.

UT Ryan Freel to the Cubs for OF Joey Gathright

Freel - -0.2


Gathright - 0

Freel has continued to suck for the Cubs. Joey Gathright will probably never contribute anything to the major league club but Baltimore still wins this trade by subtraction alone.

WAR Graphs: Ripken, Jeter and Trammell

Inspired by the work of Beyond the Boxscore (and apologies if they have done this particular graph), a comparison of the seasons in terms of WAR of three long playing shortstops: Cal Ripken, Jr., Derek Jeter and Alan Trammell. The seasons are arranged in order of greatest to worst regardless of timeline:

First, notice the sheer dominance of Cal Ripken, Jr especially over Derek Jeter. Second, notice how closely the lines of Trammel and Jeter mirror each other over the course of their career. Jeter is a sure-fire, first ballot Hall of Famer. Alan Trammell has never exceeded 20% of the needed votes to be elected in his 8 years on the ballot. Just some food for thought.

(By the way, you can thank Scott Garceau for the loose continuing series of "Jeter vs. Ripken" posts. There will be more...)

Ty Wigginton...Still Another Free Agent Signing

Ty Wigginton has signed a two-year deal to play for the Baltimore Orioles.

First, the negatives. Wigginton plays various positions (1B, 2B, 3B and OF) but doesn't play any of them particularly well, save for the corner outfield spots.

Even though he had a good year for Houston last year, he has basically been a league average bat over the course of his career.

His career OBP is .330.

He'll reportedly make $3 million per season for the next two years.

All that said, given his projected role, the signing will probably improve the team.

Why? He hits lefties very well and the Orioles needed someone to put in the lineup against C.C. Sabathias, Scott Kazmir and the other tough lefties Baltimore will have to face this year. Against LHP, Wigginton's line is .288/.364/.514 and in 2008 it was .340/.424/.631 . He'll go a long way to offset the weaknesses of Luke Scott and Aubrey Huff against lefthanded pitching.

He'll spell Melvin Mora in the field.

He'll likely push Chris Gomez off the roster. The fewer AB's that Gomez gets, the better this team is. (Baltimore will already be giving 600+ AB to Cesar Izturis...we can't afford anymore "good glove, bad bat" guys in the lineup...) In 2008, Gomez was a guy who played a lot of positions but none of them particularly well and he can't hit his way out of a wet paper bag.

So to recap, if this move prevents Gomez from making the 25-man roster and if Dave Trembley deploys him correctly (mostly against lefties), he'll be a useful player for the next couple seasons.

It'll be interesting to plug him into the WAR spreadsheet...

WAR: Predictions for the 2009 Orioles

Thanks to a tip from Frost King, I have discovered the WAR spreadsheet over at Beyond the Boxscore. This spreadsheet predicts team wins using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) calculations for individual players.

There's a lot of unknowns involved but based on educated guesses and various systems of projections, I have compiled my version of the WAR spreadsheet for the 2009 Orioles. The result? I think we'll be able to pencil the Orioles in for 77 wins in '09. Obviously, injuries will lower the projection but if Wieters gets to Baltimore ahead of schedule or a young pitcher breaks through...maybe 81 wins? I know, I'm dreaming...

(For what it's worth, since I did my first draft of the spreadsheet, the club has added Gregg Zaun, Felix Pie and David Pauley. They have pushed less effective players to either less playing time or of the roster completely...leading to an improvement of 4 wins...)

Frost King's version of the spreadsheet is here. He is contributing to Beyond the Boxscore's Community WAR Project 2009 and is looking for community projections over at Frost King Baseball. Go give him some help!