Preseason Predictions Revisited

As the season heads into its final week, it seemed like a good time to revisit my preseason predictions. As it turns out, they were fairly optimistic so they were also largely wrong. Here we go.

* Garrett Atkins won't be a regular with this team by June 15th. Somebody has to come to their senses. Nice clutch hitting in Tampa but that can't last.

Done and done. He was released before the end of June.

* Nick Markakis...breakout! Enos Slaughter for the new millennium. I recycling this from last season.

Yeah. Maybe someday but I'm done expecting anything more than average production from Nick at this point. Wrong.

* Brian Matusz....breakout! Don't be surprised if Matusz is having Tim Lincecum-type success (without the gawdy strikeout totals...but damn good ones) by the second half of the season.

Second half stats from Matusz and Lincecum over their first full season:

K/9    BB/9    K/BB   WHIP   HR   ERA
Matusz         7.0     3.2    2.19   1.30    8  4.27
Lincecum       8.6     4.0    2.15   1.30    5  3.38

Matusz has certainly improved as the season has gone along but not quite to the level I had expected. Close though. The walks are down, the strikeouts are up. Things are moving in the right direction.

* Matt Wieters...breakout! I'm going with the Keith Law prediction of "well over .300 with 20-25 homers" for his sophomore season.

Really wrong on this one. Wieters has actually taken a step back. Not a good sign.

* Adam Jones....no breakout! It would be hard to call this a breakout since he was pretty good last year but I expect that this is the year Jones starts to show people that Adrian Gonzalez is not necessary because the Orioles already have a bat as good in centerfield. Look for an average around .300 with something approaching 25 homers.

Not exactly. If you take away his hideous April, he looks like a guy who can hit at those levels. But he has basically held steady on his production from last year. Wrong.

* 80 wins. That's my guess. And with a little luck...you never know.

You wonder what would have happened if Buck Showalter was managing back in April. But the Orioles were lucky to avoid 100 losses. Wrong, wrong, wrong.

* Ben McDonald becomes a surprise hit on MASN.

He's been fine but no better than Brady Anderson.

* Kevin Millwood 2010 = Rick Sutcliffe 1992

It started out that way but certainly didn't end up there. Sutcliffe finished 1992 with 3.1 WAR for the Orioles. Millwood has 0.9 WAR. Millwood almost met the minimal expectations: league average pitching and eating innings. He pitched 180+ innings, which was good, but a 5.29 ERA is only good for an ERA+ of 80, which is not so good. Wrong.

* Felix Pie forces something this summer...a trade, a position change....something.

Pie has kind of made himself the forerunner for the LF job in 2011 since his return from injury earlier in the season. But a batting line of .274/.304/.401 isn't going to lock it down for him. Thus, I doubt the team makes any moves assuming that Pie will be the man. Not so much on this one.

That was kind of depressing. Anyone ready for 2011?

Fearless Predictions Revisited

Before the second half kicks off, I thought it was a good time to revisit preseason predictions. It ain't pretty but here it goes.

* Garrett Atkins won't be a regular with this team by June 15th. Somebody has to come to their senses.

Atkins was barely with the team until June 15th and certainly wasn't a regular by then. Atkins played just two games for Baltimore after June 15th and was then released.

* Nick Markakis...breakout! Enos Slaughter for the new millennium. I'm recycling this from last season.

I'm giving up on this. Markakis will probably never be a guy who hits .320 AND 25 home runs. Probably a high average, high on base guy who strokes a ton of doubles. A nice player but not the star I keep predicting. He's had a nice rebound from 2009 but not a leap forward.

* Brian Matusz....breakout! Don't be surprised if Matusz is having Tim Lincecum-type success (without the gawdy strikeout totals...but damn good ones) by the second half of the season.

I still kind of believe this one. I think Matusz gets much better in the second half.

* Matt Wieters...breakout! I'm going with the Keith Law prediction of "well over .300 with 20-25 homers" for his sophomore season.

Wieters actually has taken a step back and has been the most disappointing young player on the Orioles this season. Over his last 15 games, Wieters had hit a hot streak posting a .354/.448/.521 line but now finds himself on the DL with a strained hamstring. I still believe in him for the long run but I thought he'd be something of an impact bat by now.

* Adam Jones....no breakout! It would be hard to call this a breakout since he was pretty good last year but I expect that this is the year Jones starts to show people that Adrian Gonzalez is not necessary because the Orioles already have a bat as good in centerfield. Look for an average around .300 with something approaching 25 homers.

After a horrid April, Jones is starting to approach those numbers. He's hitting .276 with 14 home runs. I'd like to see a little more patience at the plate but he seems to have made the adjustments needed to keep on hitting.

* 80 wins. That's my guess. And with a little luck...you never know.

Bwahahahaha!


* Ben McDonald becomes a surprise hit on MASN.

Not so much. He's fine but I've been much more impressed with Eddie Murray in the booth.

* Kevin Millwood 2010 = Rick Sutcliffe 1992

He started that way. He'll have to regain some of his mojo to be league average in the second half...something I am doubtful of.

* Felix Pie forces something this summer...a trade, a position change....something.

Pie forced a serious injury on himself and not much else. Nolan Reimold appears to have a future at first base now but that is due as much to his bad defense in the outfield this season as the prospect of Pie manning leftfield. Still time for Pie to cement his position though.

Base Hits: 7/16/2009

It's the traditional midseason point so let's look back at my pre-season predictions!

"I hate the Hayden Penn trade. We could have just kept Jolbert Cabrera if we needed a fourth bench player. I'd rather fail with a 24-year old pitcher than with a bunch of retreads or never-were's like Eaton, Simon and Hendrickson. So my first prediction is that Penn turns out to be way more useful to the Marlins than Robert Andino will be to Baltimore."

Hayden Penn posted in 7.77 ERA in 16 games for the Marlins and was sent to New Orleans about 6 weeks ago and has only posted a 4.50 ERA since he got back to AAA.

Andino has not been great but his slick fielding came in handy when Cesar Izturis went down with an injury. So far, dead wrong about this one.

"Alfredo Simon is out of the rotation by the end of May. He won't be with the big club by July."

Well, Simon was out of the rotation by the end of April but because of injury instead of ineffectiveness. He did suck though. So I'll call this one correct.

"Matt Wieters is here in May."

Nailed it.

"Brad Bergeson is here in July."

Beregesen came up in April due to the Simon injury but he would have forced his way into the rotation by May anyway. He's ahead of where I thought he would be. I'll call this one a push.

"Brian Matusz is here is September."

Matusz dominated A+ Frederick and is dominating AA Bowie. A September call-up looks to be in his future. So far, so good.

"The Orioles win 72 games."

The O's are on pace for 66 wins. They would have to go 32-42 to reach 72 wins this season. Not impossible but for now, I've overestimated the team.

(edit: A commenter named Brett has pointed out that I made a miscalculation; 40-48 is good for a 73 win pace. So I was close...)

"Lou Montanez won't OPS better than .750 at any level...unless he goes back to Bowie."

Montanez posted a 1.000 OPS in AAA Norfolk...but in only 10 games. In 18 games in Baltimore he put up a .6s0 OPS. Montanez is hurt but I'm correct on this one.

"Nick Markakis OPS's .900+"

Whew. I had this one wrong. Barring a white hot second half, Markakis will be lucky to reach an .800 OPS, let alone .900. So much for the Markakis breakout season.

"Felix Pie gets better in the second half."

He couldn't be much worse. But will he even get an opportunity in Baltimore?

Adam Jones hits 20+ home runs.

A couple months ago, this looked like a slam dunk but a recent homerless draught put the goal in question. Jones has 12 homers and should be able to reach 20 with little problem.

Luke Scott and Ty Wigginton provide the best Oriole platoon since...well, in a very long time.

Wigginton and Scott haven't had a straight platoon at all (no surprise) but Wigginton hasn't hit lefties well (his forte before this season) and and Scott has crushed lefties that he hasn't hit well in previous seasons. It's like Scott stole Wigginton's soul. Dead wrong.

*****

Baseball America's Hot Sheet, which ranks recent performances of minor league prospects, ranks Brian Matusz #1 and Chris Tillman #3. That's pretty cool.

*****

I don't think Dave Trembley's job is in jeopardy and it seems like Jeff Zrebiec is trying to create a story where there is none. I'm not sure what makes this column any better than idle speculation on any blog or message board. You expect a little bit more from a real "journalist"; Zrebiec didn't even bother to go as far an Ken Rosenthal and get an anonymous source.

*****

Fort Myers is looking less and less like the next home of Oriole Spring Training. Staying put in Ft. Lauderdale?

(edit: It looks like the Sarasota deal is back from the dead...)

*****

Steve Melewski has the rundown on Bowie reliever Ryohei Tanaka.

*****

He's been kind of overshadowed with all the other talented pitchers in the Oriole farm system but RHP Tim Bascom has rebounded from a bad 2008 season in Frederick to pitch extremely well for the Keys and now the Bowie Baysox. Bascom has struck out 57 against only 23 walks in 90.3 innings pitched between those teams. He's not dominating but it's not difficult to see him in Norfolk's rotation in 2010 and perhaps in Baltimore (either starting or relieving) in 2011.

*****

Adam Loewen is posting a .243/.348./.696 line at high A Dunedin. However, in the last month he is posting a .304/.424/.464 line and .364/.440/.591 over the last 7 days. In other words, he's trending up as a hitter.

Jerk.