Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Time to Grow Up on Obamacare
On the healthcare debate Politico reports:
Larry to Jonathan: Grow up and get real.
UPDATE: A week-old clip of Chris Matthews schooling liberal partisan Rep. Alan Grayson about how legislation is passed and chastising him for sticking to the same silly talking points.
Lawrence O’Donnell, the Democratic Senate Finance Committee staff director during the ’93-’94 health care debate, said we’re now witnessing reform’s death throes – and Democrats know it. The party will not be able to pass another reform bill through the Senate, period. “Pelosi said that, ‘We don’t have the votes for passing the Senate bill’ and that should have just ended it. Any discussion of another scenario is juvenile,” he said. “It’s ridiculous.”As late as yesterday, The New Republic's Jonathan Cohn claimed that healthcare is "At the two-yard line" and only needs to be pushed into the end zone. It's on the two-yard line alright, their OWN two-yard line. Democrats are just trying to avoid a sack for a safety.
Larry to Jonathan: Grow up and get real.
UPDATE: A week-old clip of Chris Matthews schooling liberal partisan Rep. Alan Grayson about how legislation is passed and chastising him for sticking to the same silly talking points.
Monday, February 1, 2010
Base Hits: Surprise Exit for Melvin (?), Payroll, Projections and Irrational Exuberance
Melvin Mora has signed with the Colorado Rockies.
What's with all the "I guess Melvin Mora is really gone" stories? Wasn't it obvious when they declined his option and gave no hint whatsoever that there was still a place for him in Baltimore? Can you imagine his grousing at having to share time with Garrett Atkins or Miguel Tejada? I don't understand why people think this marks the moment that Mora is "officially" no longer an Oriole. That day has long passed.
While we're talking about Melmo, Buster Olney uses Mora's splits to demonstrate the wrong way to use stats for analysis.
Mora had a .260 batting average in 2009, but he really enjoyed the friendly confines of Camden Yards, where he hit .314 compared to .209 on the road. The .105 difference in his home versus road batting average was tied for the second-largest among players with at least 200 at-bats each at home and on the road.
Forget for a minute that batting average is a horrible stat to use for splits over one season and forget that for his Oriole career that Mora has fairly even splits in all his offensive categories, this stat may have been relevant if he was going to a neutral or pitcher's park. He's not. He's going to a field that is even more hitter friendly than OPACY. And he's going to a weaker league. If anything, Mora will enjoy a nice rebound based on this split, not a regression because he is leaving Camden Yards.
*****
Irrational exuberance alert! Another glowing story on the rebuilding O's from the national media, this time from Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated. I wanted to highlight one point about Baltimore's free agent signings during the MacPhail era:
The idea here is to bring aboard players who will contribute immediately at the major league level, but who won't financially hamstring the club in the long term (should their production decline), and who won't block cheaper, and potentially better, alternatives who are nearly ready in the minors.
It's a point that needs more highlighting. This is precisely what The Warehouse is using free agency for in the short term and avoiding questionable multi-year deals. And it will probably work in both the short and the long term.
*****
duck at Camden Chat does his best to unravel the MLB revenue sharing model and finds the Orioles stuck in the middle.
*****
With the addition of Mark Hendrickson and Miguel Tejada, here is my estimated Opening Day payroll for the 2010 Baltimore Orioles. I am assuming that Ty Wigginton is traded away and that Jeremy Guthrie wins arbitration.
Still coming in under $70 mil. It's not a bad team for the price which will be small comfort if they lose 95+ games again.
*****
Baseball Prospectus has had to re-run their PECOTA projections due to a calculation error. The Orioles are now projected for...80 wins. My WAR spreadsheet has them pegged for 80.5 wins.
Ha! Not overly optimistic after all! Who's crazy now?
What's with all the "I guess Melvin Mora is really gone" stories? Wasn't it obvious when they declined his option and gave no hint whatsoever that there was still a place for him in Baltimore? Can you imagine his grousing at having to share time with Garrett Atkins or Miguel Tejada? I don't understand why people think this marks the moment that Mora is "officially" no longer an Oriole. That day has long passed.
While we're talking about Melmo, Buster Olney uses Mora's splits to demonstrate the wrong way to use stats for analysis.
Mora had a .260 batting average in 2009, but he really enjoyed the friendly confines of Camden Yards, where he hit .314 compared to .209 on the road. The .105 difference in his home versus road batting average was tied for the second-largest among players with at least 200 at-bats each at home and on the road.
Forget for a minute that batting average is a horrible stat to use for splits over one season and forget that for his Oriole career that Mora has fairly even splits in all his offensive categories, this stat may have been relevant if he was going to a neutral or pitcher's park. He's not. He's going to a field that is even more hitter friendly than OPACY. And he's going to a weaker league. If anything, Mora will enjoy a nice rebound based on this split, not a regression because he is leaving Camden Yards.
*****
Irrational exuberance alert! Another glowing story on the rebuilding O's from the national media, this time from Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated. I wanted to highlight one point about Baltimore's free agent signings during the MacPhail era:
The idea here is to bring aboard players who will contribute immediately at the major league level, but who won't financially hamstring the club in the long term (should their production decline), and who won't block cheaper, and potentially better, alternatives who are nearly ready in the minors.
It's a point that needs more highlighting. This is precisely what The Warehouse is using free agency for in the short term and avoiding questionable multi-year deals. And it will probably work in both the short and the long term.
*****
duck at Camden Chat does his best to unravel the MLB revenue sharing model and finds the Orioles stuck in the middle.
*****
With the addition of Mark Hendrickson and Miguel Tejada, here is my estimated Opening Day payroll for the 2010 Baltimore Orioles. I am assuming that Ty Wigginton is traded away and that Jeremy Guthrie wins arbitration.
| Roberts, Brian | $10,000,000 |
| Millwood, Kevin | $9,000,000 |
| Markakis, Nick | $7,100,000 |
| Tejada, Miguel | $6,000,000 |
| Gonzalez, Mike | $6,000,000 |
| Uehara, Koji | $5,000,000 |
| Atkins, Garrett | $4,500,000 |
| Scott, Luke | $4,050,000 |
| Guthrie, Jeremy | $3,625,000 |
| Izturis, Cesar | $2,600,000 |
| Meredith, Cla | $1,250,000 |
| Herdrickson, Mark | $1,200,000 |
| Mora, Melvin, | $1,000,000 |
| Moeller, Chad, | $900,000 |
| Matusz, Brian | $868,000 |
| Albers, Matt | $680,000 |
| Jones, Adam | $500,000 |
| Wieters, Matt | $500,000 |
| Pie, Felix | $450,000 |
| Mickolio, Kam | $450,000 |
| Bergesen, Brad | $450,000 |
| Tillman, Chris | $450,000 |
| Aubrey, Michael | $450,000 |
| Reimold, Nolan | $450,000 |
| Andino, Robert | $450,000 |
| Johnson, Jim | $450,000 |
| TOTAL | $68,373,000 |
Still coming in under $70 mil. It's not a bad team for the price which will be small comfort if they lose 95+ games again.
*****
Baseball Prospectus has had to re-run their PECOTA projections due to a calculation error. The Orioles are now projected for...80 wins. My WAR spreadsheet has them pegged for 80.5 wins.
Ha! Not overly optimistic after all! Who's crazy now?
Help Me, Oriole Rotation. You're My Only Hope.
An Open Letter to the Oriole Starting Five:
Hi guys. It's closing in on Spring Training and Baltimore fans are full of (cautious, admittedly) optimism and hope. Young prospects are on the rise, national media are picking Baltimore to be much improved and even projection systems like PECOTA have the Birds within the margin of error for a winning season.
Kevin Millwood, we know your best days are probably behind you. While you are the de facto ace, nobody expects you to be anything better than league average. We need you to be Rick Sutcliffe circa 1992. You remember the Red Baron, don't you? He came to Baltimore late in his career to help anchor a staff of young hurlers (Mussina, McDonald, Rhodes) and for the first half of the season pitched like the Sutcliffe of old. OK, not like 1984 Sutcliffe but he went 12-6 over the first half of the season with a 4.13 ERA. He finished the season as a slightly below average pitcher in terms of ERA but for half of 1992 (and then some) he was a hero. He helped lead the Orioles, who had lost 97 games in 1991, to an 89 win season in 1992. More importantly, he bought time for the kid pitchers to develop and stabilized the rotation.
Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles claimed off of waivers three seasons ago and you went out of the frying pan and into the fire. 2009 was rough on you. You gave up a league high 35 homers. But that won't happen again because deep down, you are a groundball pitcher with enough of a fastball to strike batters out. Don't give in and keep the ball down in the zone. You finally have help. A veteran to eat innings, kids behind you who will pitch better as the season wears on. You are battle tested, sir. No pitcher in baseball has faced the fearsome lineups you have faced more often over the last three seasons.
Brad Bergesen. You were labeled a AAAA pitcher. You were not supposed to have the stuff to pitch in the AL East. You were not supposed to be in the rotation in 2009. But you were and you were the best of the rotation last season.
Brian Matusz, I have not had so much fun watching a guy pitch since Mike Mussina donned the orange & black. You have four pitches and you command them all extremely well. So on any count, you are likely to throw any of them. It reminds me of Mussina throwing his knuckle-curve on a 3-2 count, buckling the batter's knees and ringing up the K. You are that kind of talent. I can see you tying the hitters up in knots, mentally and physically with each successive at bat.
Chris Tillman, it was not pretty during your 12 major league starts in 2009. A 5.40 ERA and lots of walks. But at the age of 21, you had nothing left to prove in the minors. You destroyed the International League posting a 2.70 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 96 innings for AAA Norfolk. It was your time. It is your time.
Hi guys. It's closing in on Spring Training and Baltimore fans are full of (cautious, admittedly) optimism and hope. Young prospects are on the rise, national media are picking Baltimore to be much improved and even projection systems like PECOTA have the Birds within the margin of error for a winning season.
But I know the truth. This team only goes as far as you five gentlemen take us. The offense is good but not good enough to outslug the Yanks, Sox or maybe even the Rays. No, we need pitching and we need plenty of it to succeed. The good news is, you won't have big shoes to fill. The starting rotation on Opening Day was Alfredo Simon, Koji Uehara, Mark Hendrickson, Adam Eaton and Jeremy Guthrie. Jeremy, you are the only one who remains.
Each of you have a job to do and the Baltimore faithful beg you to do it well.
Kevin Millwood, we know your best days are probably behind you. While you are the de facto ace, nobody expects you to be anything better than league average. We need you to be Rick Sutcliffe circa 1992. You remember the Red Baron, don't you? He came to Baltimore late in his career to help anchor a staff of young hurlers (Mussina, McDonald, Rhodes) and for the first half of the season pitched like the Sutcliffe of old. OK, not like 1984 Sutcliffe but he went 12-6 over the first half of the season with a 4.13 ERA. He finished the season as a slightly below average pitcher in terms of ERA but for half of 1992 (and then some) he was a hero. He helped lead the Orioles, who had lost 97 games in 1991, to an 89 win season in 1992. More importantly, he bought time for the kid pitchers to develop and stabilized the rotation. You can be that hero, Kevin. I know former Braves have not fared well in Charm City (Javy Lopez, Leo Mazzone, B.J. Surhoff v2.0) but this is a different era, an era of hope and resurrection. Seize the day and perhaps the Orioles will relax facial hair policies for you too.
Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles claimed off of waivers three seasons ago and you went out of the frying pan and into the fire. 2009 was rough on you. You gave up a league high 35 homers. But that won't happen again because deep down, you are a groundball pitcher with enough of a fastball to strike batters out. Don't give in and keep the ball down in the zone. You finally have help. A veteran to eat innings, kids behind you who will pitch better as the season wears on. You are battle tested, sir. No pitcher in baseball has faced the fearsome lineups you have faced more often over the last three seasons. We don't need you to try to be the ace anymore. We just need your innings, we just need your experience, we just need your spirit. Just keep the ball in the park and let your defense do the rest.
Brad Bergesen. You were labeled a AAAA pitcher. You were not supposed to have the stuff to pitch in the AL East. You were not supposed to be in the rotation in 2009. But you were and you were the best of the rotation last season. You're a groundball machine. You walk no one. Nobody's getting a cheap hit off of you. According to The Bill James Handbook, you might just be the best fielding pitcher in the American League. You have the best chance of any of the starters to hit 200 innings pitched like Guthrie did last year. You're a fan favorite already and everyone is pulling for you to succeed. Like it or not, you're the underdog and everyone loves the underdog. Just keep it up. Please.
Brian Matusz, I have not had so much fun watching a guy pitch since Mike Mussina donned the orange & black. You have four pitches and you command them all extremely well. So on any count, you are likely to throw any of them. It reminds me of Mussina throwing his knuckle-curve on a 3-2 count, buckling the batter's knees and ringing up the K. You are that kind of talent. I can see you tying the hitters up in knots, mentally and physically with each successive at bat. You are to inherit the "ace" tag for Baltimore and become the best Baltimore pitcher since the aforementioned Mussina. The rotation is relying more on your success than on any other individual pitcher. But the scouts love you and I think you may be due for a great leap forward in 2010.
Chris Tillman, it was not pretty during your 12 major league starts in 2009. A 5.40 ERA and lots of walks. But at the age of 21, you had nothing left to prove in the minors. You destroyed the International League posting a 2.70 ERA and 99 strikeouts in 96 innings for AAA Norfolk. It was your time. It is your time. But just relax. No one is expecting you to be anything more than the 5th best starter for the Orioles in 2010. But I saw you in AAA. Your fastball moved and you mixed you pitches well. In Baltimore, you overthrew and that fastball flattened out. No need to throw through a brick wall. The baseball is an egg. Hold it like and egg. And by the end of the season, you may just start to show flashes of the ace potential you brought with you from the Seattle organization.
So don't believe the hype. If the Orioles are to surprise the league this season, it won't be because they signed Miguel Tejada and Garrett Atkins, it will be because the five of you.
Now let's go O's!
The Real John Edwards
A review of Andrew Young's "The Politician."
The politician, in question, John Edwards.
How can it miss?
The politician, in question, John Edwards.
How can it miss?
The New Class Warfare: Public v. Private
Haven't seen too many Republicans point out that the only jobs the Democratic stimulus have protected are government jobs.
It is understandable that the Democratic party would do this given that it is the "party of government" and therefore it is protecting one of its most important special interests. But you would think Repbulicans could make a little hay with this information.
Jeff Jacoby runs the numbers. Private sector workers and companies can be justifiably outraged at the disparity.
It is understandable that the Democratic party would do this given that it is the "party of government" and therefore it is protecting one of its most important special interests. But you would think Repbulicans could make a little hay with this information.
Jeff Jacoby runs the numbers. Private sector workers and companies can be justifiably outraged at the disparity.
Since December 2007, when the current downturn began, the ranks of federal employees earning $100,000 and up has skyrocketed. According to a recent analysis by USA Today, federal workers making six-figure salaries - not including overtime and bonuses - “jumped from 14 percent to 19 percent of civil servants during the recession’s first 18 months.’’ The surge has been especially pronounced among the highest-paid employees. At the Defense Department, for example, the number of civilian workers making $150,000 or more quintupled from 1,868 to 10,100. At the recession’s start, the Transportation Department was paying only one person a salary of $170,000. Eighteen months later, 1,690 employees were drawing paychecks that size.Was this the hope and change you were looking for?
All the while, the federal government has been adding jobs at a 10,000-a-month clip. Between December 2007 and June 2009, federal payrolls exploded by nearly 10 percent. “Federal workers are enjoying an extraordinary boom time in pay and hiring,’’ USA Today observes, “during a recession that has cost 7.3 million jobs in the private sector.’’ And to add public-sector insult to private-sector injury, data from the Office of Personnel Management show the average federal salary is now roughly $71,000 - about 76 percent higher than the average private salary.
Which Are You?
Harvey Mansfield ends his insightful piece on Obama's post-partisan presidency with a question:
What is it in human beings that makes some of them love progress more than liberty and makes others love liberty more than progress?
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