Monday, November 1, 2010

Luke Scott: The Invisible Slugger, Part 2

From Roch Kubatko's post on MASN yesterday titled "Deciding the Top DH for 2010":

The Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award will be presented next month, which makes sense, considering that we're down to our final day of this month...


The two leading candidates are Vladimir Guerrero and David Ortiz. One player looked like he was finished and didn't draw a tremendous amount of interest on the free agent market. The other player looked like he was finished once the season began and dealt with all sorts of speculation about being benched or released...


The ballot calls for members of the media to cast votes for first and second place. I just need to figure out the order.


While Roch lays out Scott's numbers, there is no case made for him to be on the ballot. Not once.

Some key stats for the trio overall in 2010:

OPS   wRC+  2B   HR     
Ortiz .899 137 36 32
Guerrero .841 124 27 29
Scott .902 143 29 27


And the trio's DH numbers only"


OPS   OPS+  2B   HR     
Ortiz .908 140 35 31
Guerrero .850 125 25 25
Scott .955 152 19 23





Luke Scott trumps them all.

Now, given the closeness of their rate stats and the fact that Ortiz has more than 150 PAs more than Scott as a DH, you can make the argument that Ortiz should get the edge over Scott. But Guerrero? It's not even close. He certainly belongs on the ballot, if not the winnre of the award.

But Roch Kubatko, a guy who watched Scott all year long, doesn't even make a case for him. Scott's 2010 is going down as one of the most overlooked offensive seasons in Oriole history.

Real NYC Wedding by New York Wedding Photographer, Missy

Hello All!

I wanted to share this beautiful New York City real wedding shot by new york wedding photographer, Missy of Missy Photography. The wedding took place at The Bryant Park Grill, NYC. The pictures are so beautifully airy and serene, just lovely! Congrats to Krystal & Jonathon!

Enjoy!









The Oriole Windfall for 2011, Part 3

Shortstop


Pricey Options

None. The Orioles can't afford, nor should they want, Derek Jeter. Even if the Mets do not pick up Jose Reyes' option, he is an injury risk and would be expensive regardless. Japanese SS Hiroyuki Nakajima will probably not be posted by the Seibu Lions. The Phillies will not decline Jimmy Rollins' option.

That leaves...

Mid-Range Options

J..J Hardy

Hardy isn't hitting like he did a couple years ago but still has some pop in his bat and his glove is still very legitimate at short. He has posted UZRs of 6.1, 6.1 and 8.1 over the past three seasons. But his struggles at the plate have diminished his value. You should be able to sign the guy for 2 seasons at $5-6 mil per season and he will provide a fair bat and good defense until (perhaps) Manny Machado gets to Baltimore.

Orlando Cabrera

Cabrera will be 36 next season but can still play a decent shortstop. There's also a slight chance his bat returns to pre-2010 levels (which would be a nice upgrade from Cesar Izturis' bat). He could be worth a one year gamble in the neighborhood of $3 mil.

Budget Options

Cesar Izturis

Izturis is all about the glove. If you just want a glove who will come cheap, Izturis may be your man. A one year deal at around $2 mil. Or...

Robert Andino

Andino may be able to play just as well at short and play for the league minimum. If you're just going to punt on the shortstop position in 2011 anyway, it may be worth it to just plug Andino in and see what happens. There is still a long shot that his bat improves, we can't say that about Izturis.


Starting Pitching

Pricey Options

None

Sure, the Orioles could go all in on Cliff Lee but the Rangers and the Yankees already have inside tracks on his services.

Mid-Range

Javier Vasquez

Make no mistake, Vasquez had a poor year in his return to the Bronx. And it was for real. His 5.32 ERA was backed by a 5.56 FIP and a 4.90 xFIP. But he could come at a bargain and/or a short contract. A one-year, incentive laden deal could add an average veteran arm. $6-8 mil for one season should get it done.

Jake Westbrook


Westbrook was expected to sign an extension with the Cardinals but all has been quiet on that front. It would probably take a three-year deal to sign Westbrook, probably around $8 mil per season. The only question is, do you want a mediocre pitcher on the wrong side of 32 signed for 3 seasons? He will certainly have value...but in theory, the Orioles have better options coming up through the system.

Budget Options


The Motley Crew


There are a ton of interesting options from the group of injury risks and cast-offs out there this year. Tiger hurler Jeremy Bonderman is still just 28 and there is still time to harness some of his potential. Ditto for the Marlins' Andrew Miller, a former 1st round pick who hasn't panned out in the bigs but is just 25 and is a flame-throwing lefty. Former Oriole John Maine is likely to be non-tendered by the Mets. Brandon McCarthy, Jeff Suppan, Zach Duke and Noah Lowry are also going to be out there, as well as other vets nearing the end of their careers.

These are not sexy options but if you sign two or three of them to compete for a spot in the rotation, perhaps one works out. If not, you can send them to the bullpen. Remember, this is how we got Jeremy Guthrie. Low cost, low risk.

The Bullpen


If you read this blog even casually, you know how I fell about the construction of the bullpen. Most of our bullpen for 2011 is already in the organization. Fill out the pen with current players under contract (including Michael Gonzlaez, who we just have to hope and pray can be worth anything close to the $6 mil he'll be making this season) and fill in the holes with arms from AAA and veteran cast-offs (see Will Ohman, 2010).

Next time, we'll (finally) wrap this up with a look at how I think the roster should be constructed and the financial ramifications of those roster moves...

Scenes from the Love In

Night of the Living Dem


Florida Congressman Alan Grayson appears on the Big Ed Show to make one last appeal to the voters of his distict:
"Vote for me or I will eat your flesh."

Rasmussen Explains the Wave

Scott Rasmussen:
In the first week of January 2010, Rasmussen Reports showed Republicans with a nine-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. Scott Brown delivered a stunning upset in the Massachusetts special U.S. Senate election a couple of weeks later.

In the last week of October 2010, Rasmussen Reports again showed Republicans with a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. And tomorrow Republicans will send more Republicans to Congress than at any time in the past 80 years.

This isn't a wave, it's a tidal shift—and we've seen it coming for a long time. Remarkably, there have been plenty of warning signs over the past two years, but Democratic leaders ignored them. At least the captain of the Titanic tried to miss the iceberg. Congressional Democrats aimed right for it.

Trend alert: Big floppy hats

http://i188.photobucket.com/albums/z67/designscene/designscenealbum/DSNEW2/DariaWerbowyforYvesSaintLaurent01.jpghttps://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK2Mqoew3OVU7ws0ZfYAnY110pqHZBQArIJdNzgkdIa8wUfMtblmZZhnNWNMvafMAdCPuJ9YEqdgjSstM_9m5-t4zMHWRAIKP1Mxa3-Li-27S9nMA5gmbbvMJVrtAG3EKT_l4inDOvlz8/s1600/Yves+Saint+Laurent+Pre-Fall+2010+12.jpghttps://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhXq7u8J_1qCeHJJgCb2ye4VRnQ0anU_MQr2dnCOqHvA61pnBPC5QVkZQ-sl-MNRffs5o5u2gUlrihdDXrxj9Voo3DKPA2PBjJHQQ4_5ne1SkrB4EGQWXd75TxFPcrgkJh8CYO1Zr2XkHk/s1600/Yves+Saint+Laurent+Pre-Fall+2010+10.jpghttp://duskviolet.files.wordpress.com/2010/04/ysl3.jpg

YVES SAINT-LAURENT - WOOL FELT HAT - Yves Saint Laurent
YSL felt hat 165 EUR

The new trend: Big floppy wool hats for winter.
An headpiece add character to a simple outfit. The floppy hat add mystery and it's chic. For this season your hat has to be black and wide. In the YSL commercial it covers all the face, we don't want to go so dramatic, leave your face exposeded but choose a wavy design. How to wear it? Don't overdo!The wide floppy hat it's a statement on its own! Pair it with something simple: a simple coat!
And now: where we can buy this hat?
I found this one from American Apparel and i think it's perfect (aldought i would prefere it black). I'm always interested on how things are done and i found a video on how american apparel produces their floppy hats. If you're curious too, have a look!






Other floppy hats
ASOS | ASOS 70s Floppy Felt Hat at ASOS

16 EUR ($22) - lorisshoes.com

Wide-Brim Wool Hat Black - One Size


some matchings

Spooky Chic - Audrey Hepburn Breakfast at Tiffanys costume


Hats Contest!