Does WAR Reveal a Chance of a Winning 2010 for Baltimore?

Team projections at this time of the year are a fool's game. But I started to try anyway.

Using Sky Kalkman's WAR Spreadsheet, I plugged in the holes based on the current roster and a few assumptions here and there (like the return of Mark Hendrickson or someone like him). Then I used CHONE and Bill James projections (mostly Bill James since they are already in wOBA at FanGraphs.com) and let the spreadsheet run the numbers.

Projection: 83 wins

What? I looked over my numbers again. I only had Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Brad Bergesen outperforming projections by any significant amount and even that was not by much. All other players either got their Bill James projection or were lowered to some degree. And I still get 83 wins. Even with Garrett Atkins and Ty Wigginton manning the corners all year.

Keep in mind that going into Spring Training 2009, my spreadsheet had 77 wins and Baltimore almost lost 100. But the pitching just plain exploded. Barring a significant rash of injuries, this staff won't be as bad as '09, right?

The link to my spreadsheet is here. Any feedback is appreciated. But I got a little unexpected optimism for Christmas.

edit: I gave Nolan Reimold 745 ABs vs. 695 between LF and DH. I adjusted that but it still falls in the 83 win range.

Desert Dog Fever...Catch It!

I have always loved following the Oriole prospects in the Arizona Fall League. In past seasons, I have had to endure the watching Oriole "prospects" like Dustin Yount or Brandon Fahey. But this season, all of the Oriole prospects who have showed up to play in Phoenix are worthy of following. And their teammates on the Desert Dogs from other organizations bring some interesting storylines of their own. Here's the rundown with the Oriole prospects listed first:

3B Josh Bell - Bell came over from the Dodgers in the George Sherrill trade and gave the Orioles their best third base prospect since...I don't know, Leo Gomez? He is also the only player listed as a third baseman for the Desert Dogs so he should get plenty of at bats this fall.

RP Eddie Figueroa - The 2008 21st round pick has gone from the rookie leagues all the way to Bowie in under a season and a half of pro ball. Can he keep mowing them down and killing worms (or scorpions) in Arizona?

SP Brandon Erbe - Coming back from injury, Erbe showed signs of life in Bowie over 14 starts. This will be the toughest competition the 22-year-old Erbe has faced in his career...should be a good test.

RP Josh Perrault - The AFL'er most likely to break camp with Baltimore out of spring training. Perrault pitched 32 innings in Norfolk and struck out 33. A good showing in Arizona will go a long way toward getting him a long look in Sarasota this spring.

SP Ryohei Tanaka - The Orioles' forgotten Japanese import. Tanaka put together a nice season in Bowie as a swingman in '09 winning 4 games, saving 3 and posting a 3.00 ERA. Will his junk fool the rest of the AFL? I'm curious to see what kind of stuff he has. Tanaka makes the season opening start for Phoenix today versus Mesa at 2:35 EDT.

1B Brandon Snyder - Last fall, Snyder's good showing led to a white-hot run in Bowie and gained him a mid-season promotion to Norfolk. Will this fall help ignite similar success in AAA?

1B/3B Brandon Waring - The Carolina League MVP. He beat up on the pitchers in A-ball but can he mash against the top pitchers in the minors?

OF Matt Angle - Frederick centerfielder hasn't shown much at the plate except that he can a) get on base and b) steal a lot of bases. If he can do that in the AFL, those skills could play in Bowie and beyond.

OF Adam Loewen - Former Oriole top pitching prospect arrives as an outfielder for the Jays. Loewen hit pitifully in Dunedin so I'm surprised he's here at all. He will either affirm his status as a hitting prospect or get completely exposed.

RP Drew Storen - The top pick of the Nationals in 2009 and heir apparent to the closer job in 2010. Drew dominated minor league hitters in '09 and along with Stephen Strasburg will give Nats fans something to cheer for in 2010.

SP Stephen Strasburg - No player will be more closely scrutinized this fall than Strasburg. The pitcher described by his agent as a "once a generation" talent will have to prove it against the best hitters in the minors this fall. Nats fans will be watching with baited breath while sport writers across the country will be hoping he fails.

2B Jemile Weeks - Ricky Weeks' little brother raked in the high-A California league while stealing bases at will. The Athletics hope he continues that success against tougher competition since they haven't produced an impact position player from their farm system in years.

P Katayama/Mishimura/Yanuki - A trio of pitchers from the Nippon Professional Baseball league will be playing for the desert Dogs in 2009. This is the first time I have seen players unaffiliated with MLB play for teams in the AFL (I have seen them in the Hawaiian Leagues.) There are five total and three will play for Phoenix. They are:

P Hiroshi Katayama - Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

P Ken Mishimura - Hanshin Tigers

P Toshiyuki Yanuki - Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

I always love to see the NPB players get a shot against North American competition especially since the Orioles seem to have turned their eye toward Japan when it comes to scouting. It's a good way to get a sense of how competitive those guys can be.

I don't know about you but I'm excited! I'll be a die-hard Desert Dog fan for the next two months.

WAR Graphs: The Great Orioles of the 90's

(click on the graph for a version you can actually read...)

I decided to take a look at the great Orioles players of the 90's to see how they stacked up in terms of WAR (which includes defensive value). I only included players who played more than 5 seasons for the Orioles between 1990-1999 so Rafael Palmiero, Roberto Alomar and the like do not make the cut.

No real surprises here except maybe the inclusion of Mike Devereaux who hit fairly well for a centerfielder over the course of 7 seasons.

There's Cal's monster 1991 season looming above all with only Chris Hoiles huge 1993 as any kind of rival.

Brady Anderson exceeds Hoiles with overall WAR due to his consistency and longevity...that and his own monster season in 1996.

Cal reigns supreme, which is no surprise but I was surprised by the margin over Anderson...I thought it might be a little closer as Cal entered the twilight of his career.

Base Hits: 5/4/2009

The Orioles have lost six straight and now have a two game series in Tampa squaring off against Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza. Not looking good. But let's see if we can mine for some hope...

Aki Iwamura, Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton have had success versus Adam Eaton in limited action. No one else on the Rays has (including 0-9 for Pat Burrell and 2-9 for Carl Crawford). Could Eaton sneak past the dangerous Rays hitters and defeat a struggling Scott Kazmir (5.40 ERA)? Maybe. Roberts, Markakis and Huff own him.

On the other hand, Matt Garza is 5-0 versus the Orioles. Maybe we can just go for the split.

*****

Dennis Sarfate goes on the DL with numbness in his hand and the Orioles recall RP Bob McCrory from Norfolk. McCrory was bringing it, hitting 95+ on the radar gun when I saw him in Gwinnett last month. It'll be interesting to see if he has good movement on that fastball.

*****

Frederick 1B/3B Brandon Waring is OPSing .867 this season. Find out the backstory of this player acquired from the Reds in the Ramon Hernandez deal.

*****

Danys Baez aka Mr. Reluctant has posted a 2.63 ERA this season and it's no mistake. He's struck out 12 in 13.2 IP and only walked 4 for a WHIP of 0.805. Who saw that coming? On a related note, Jamie Walker has posted a 1.93 ERA in a very LOOGY-type role.

*****

City commissioners in Sarasota will vote this afternoon and are poised to kill the deal to bring the Baltimore Orioles there for Spring Training. No, this time they really mean it.

*****

George Sherrill is not guaranteed the closer role going forward. The path forward? Closer by committee. Dave Trembley:

"...I have to take a look at the situation and do what I feel is in the best interest of the team for today. Further than that, I'll probably take it day by day."

Sherrill is none too pleased:

"The thing is, I would like to have the chance to pitch myself out of the opportunity...We do have a lot of guys to do it, but I want to be the guy to do it. I don't really understand it, but when it all gets said and done, wins are what matters.

"Closer-by-committee doesn't work and won't work. We'll have to sit down and talk about it and figure out what to do."

Well, George is right when he says closer-by-committee won't work. It won't work without willing participants.

I love closer by committee. It allows a more flexible use of your 'pen and give the manager more opportunities to put guys in a place to succeed.

Unfortunately, it almost never works. It's the psychological component that fails. Relievers like to have clearly defined roles. Always have.

I guess George Sherrill will move back to lefty specialist now?