WAR Graphs: The Great Orioles of the 90's

(click on the graph for a version you can actually read...)

I decided to take a look at the great Orioles players of the 90's to see how they stacked up in terms of WAR (which includes defensive value). I only included players who played more than 5 seasons for the Orioles between 1990-1999 so Rafael Palmiero, Roberto Alomar and the like do not make the cut.

No real surprises here except maybe the inclusion of Mike Devereaux who hit fairly well for a centerfielder over the course of 7 seasons.

There's Cal's monster 1991 season looming above all with only Chris Hoiles huge 1993 as any kind of rival.

Brady Anderson exceeds Hoiles with overall WAR due to his consistency and longevity...that and his own monster season in 1996.

Cal reigns supreme, which is no surprise but I was surprised by the margin over Anderson...I thought it might be a little closer as Cal entered the twilight of his career.

Examining Chris Hoiles and the 1993 AL MVP Voting

OK, I've been out of town for the holiday and haven't seen a lot of the Orioles lately. There's a whole lot to catch up on but let me just say this one thing:

Kevin Millar was safe! No extra innings were necessary!
Anyway....

I'm not here to talk about the present, I'm here to talk about the past. You see, I have three big obsessions involving the Orioles:

1. Jeffrey Maier in the 1996 ALCS
2. The amazing 1987 season of Larry Sheets (you have no idea how close I came to naming this blog "Holy Sheets!")
3. The snubbing of Chris Hoiles for MVP in 1993.

(I'll also grant you that three Oriole obsessions is really understating the case. There are certainly many, many more...I am writing a blog about a baseball team for Christ's sake.)

I'm here today to talk about Mr. Hoiles and give him his due.

Top Ten OPS+ Seasons By A Catcher Since 1900

               Year     OPS+



Mike Piazza    1997     185



Mike Piazza    1995     172



Mike Piazza    1996     166



Johnny Bench   1972     166



Mike Grady     1904     166



Chris Hoiles   1993     162



Carlton Fisk   1972     162



Ernie Lombardi 1942     161



Roy Campanella 1951     159



Gabby Hartnett 1937     158



 

So Hoiles' season ranks only behind three seasons from the greatest hitting catcher of all time (Piazza), another by the second greatest hitting catcher of all time and a fluky season from a journeyman catcher from the deadball era (Grady). Behind him are Fisk, Lombardi, Campanella and Hartnett; all Hall of Famers.

If fact outside of Grady and Hoiles himself, all of these catchers are or will be in the Hall of Fame.

Even more impressive, the top five OPS+ performances by a catcher in the 107 year history of the American League:

Name            OPS+     Year



Chris Hoiles    162      1993



Carlton Fisk    162      1972



Bill Dickey     158      1936



Mickey Cochrane 157      1933



Jorge Posada    154      2007









 

Again, Hoiles leads a list of current or future Hall of Famers.

OPS+ for all position players in the American League in 1993:

Name            OPS+



John Olerud     186



Frank Thomas    177



Ken Griffey     171



Juan Gonazalez  169



Chis Hoiles     162









 

Even though Hoiles had a fantastic year at the plate (.310/.416/.585, 29 HR) there were a lot of great performances in the AL that year. Olerud hit .363, Thomas slugged .617 and drove in 128, Griffey hit .309 with 45 homers and Gonazalez hit 46 with a .310 average. But only Griffey did it at a premium defensive position.

And this is not an argument that Chris Hoiles should have won the MVP. I know how MVP voting works. Your team typically has to make the playoffs or your performance has to stand out in a year where there is clearly no better option (i.e. Cal Ripken, Jr. in 1991 for the last place O's). But he deserved better than this:

                           1st           Max              Season Results



 Rk Name             Team Place Points Points Share   AB  H  HR   BA    OPS  SB  W-L   IP  ERA   WHIP  SO SV



+--+----------------+----+-----+------+------+-----+-----+---+--+-----+-----+---+------+---+-----+-----+---+--+



  1 Frank Thomas      CHW   28    392    392  1.00   549 174 41  .317 1.033   4                       



  2 Paul Molitor      TOR    0    209    392  0.53   636 211 22  .332  .911  22                       



  3 John Olerud       TOR    0    198    392  0.51   551 200 24  .363 1.072   0                       



  4 Juan Gonzalez     TEX    0    185    392  0.47   536 166 46  .310 1.000   4                       



  5 Ken Griffey       SEA    0    182    392  0.46   582 180 45  .309 1.025  17                       



  6 Roberto Alomar    TOR    0    102    392  0.26   589 192 17  .326  .900  55                       



  7 Albert Belle      CLE    0     81    392  0.21   594 172 38  .290  .922  23                       



  8 Rafael Palmeiro   TEX    0     52    392  0.13   597 176 37  .295  .925  22                       



  9 Jack McDowell     CHW    0     51    392  0.13                              22-10 257  3.37  1.29 158



 10 Carlos Baerga     CLE    0     50    392  0.13   624 200 21  .321  .841  15                       



 11 Jimmy Key         NYY    0     29    392  0.07                              18-6  237  3.00  1.11 173



 12 Joe Carter        TOR    0     25    392  0.06   603 153 33  .254  .801   8                       



 13 Jeff Montgomery   KCR    0     15    392  0.04                               7-5   87  2.27  1.01  66 45



 13 Mike Stanley      NYY    0     15    392  0.04   423 129 26  .305  .923   1                       



 15 Kenny Lofton      CLE    0     11    392  0.03   569 185  1  .325  .816  70                       



 16 Chris Hoiles      BAL    0     10    392  0.03   419 130 29  .310 1.001   1                       



 16 Tony Phillips     DET    0     10    392  0.03   566 177  7  .313  .841  16                      









 

Behind Kenny Lofton? Behind Mike Stanley? Mike Freakin Stanley? Jimmy Bleepin' Key?!?!?!

It gets even worse when you consider Win Shares. Hoiles leads all these guys with 6.8 Fielding Win Shares in 1993 on top of the great bat. It still doesn't make up the ground on guys like Thomas and Olerud but it certainly narrows the gap.

Hoiles arguably should've finished in the top 5 of MVP voting and certainly the top ten. As it turns out, he wouldn't even crack the top 15!

A performance worthy of baseball immortals but is largely forgotten, even in Baltimore, and was underappreciated even as it was happening 15 years ago.

Big Homer Index Revisited

FanGraphs.com is slowly putting together a whole bunch of WPA data for decades past. When it is done, it would be interesting to compare my made-up stats with who actually did hit the most big homers in Oriole history.

What's the Big Homer Index (BHI)? Look here. And remember, it's grounded in reality but all in fun.

Chris Hoiles - 151 Career Home Runs

Chris Hoiles was a natural for this "study" because he always had the reputation of hitting the homer when nobody was on base or when it didn't much matter, at least the first half of his career.

BHI shows that Hoiles did hit a lot of solo shots (89 out of 151 career homers were solo). He also hit a bunch of homeruns when the game was already decided (21 homers with the Orioles up by 4 runs, 29 when they were up by at least three) but that's not the whole story. A full 25% of Chris' career homers put the team ahead and another 11% tied the game. Add three walk-off home runs during his career and Hoiles fares very well on the index.

BHI - 240


Brady Anderson - 210 Career Home Runs

Brady has a natural disadvantage in BHI because he was a leadoff hitter. Anderson hit a ton of solo shots (148) but only led off the game with a homer 23 times so I'm not sure things are skewed against him quite as bad as you might think.

In addition to the high number of solo shots, he hit 23% of his home runs with the team either up or down by four or more runs.

What saves Brady's BHI is the 72 homers (34%) he hit to give the team the league and the lone game ending homer he hit against the Twins on April 13th, 1996.

Overall, not too shabby for a leadoff hitter.

BHI - 138


Brooks Robinson - 268 Career Home Runs

Brooks Robinson is the standard bearer for BHI prowess, at least up to this point. Brooks hit 8 walk-off homers, double the number of Cal Ripken despite trailing Cal by nearly 200 career home runs. Only 40 of his home runs came with the Orioles up or down by 4 or more runs and 46% of his homers either tied the game up or gave the team the lead. This doesn't even count the postseason!

I can't imagine anybody topping Brook's BHI. He certainly took pitchers deep when it mattered the most.

BHI - 495


BHI Leaders - Oriole Career
Brooks Robinson - 495
Chris Hoiles - 240
Cal Ripken - 197
Brady Anderson - 138
Jay Gibbons - 42

More to come...