Base Hits: 8/8/2008

Looking back on the week that was, Rob Neyer of ESPN.com wrote about the improbable performance of Matt Waters. It's part of ESPN Insider so here's the main text:

Waters' masterpiece for O's quite a shocker

I'd like to embrace the utter unlikelihood of what Chris Waters did last night.

As we see in a sidebar here, Waters became just the sixth pitcher in the past 50 years to throw eight-plus innings with no runs and one hit in a major league debut.

--snip--

Waters isn't even supposed to be in the major leagues. Look at the ages for each of those pitchers; before Waters, fellow Oriole Milacki was the oldest to make a similarly spectacular debut … and Waters is more than three years older than Milacki was. And although Milacki might not have been a Grade A prospect when he reached the majors in September 1988, that summer he'd gone 12-8 with a 2.70 ERA for Triple-A Rochester.

Just looking at the ages of the other pitchers on this list, it seems likely that all had done impressive work in the minors. We do know that Marichal's a Hall of Famer, and we know that May won 152 games in the majors and was still pitching at 39.

Waters, though?

He's not built like a pitcher. He's listed as being 6 feet tall, 170 pounds, which means he's probably 5-foot-10 and 165 pounds. The Braves did like him enough in 2000 to draft him out of South Florida Community College in the fifth round. After initially pitching well as a professional, Waters stalled out; four years after being drafted, he was still pitching in Class A, and wasn't pitching particularly well. And after an unimpressive Double-A season (2006), the Braves cut Waters loose.

Last year, pitching for the Orioles' Double-A team, Waters went 8-9 with a 4.49 ERA. Before this season, he wasn't even listed among the Orioles' top 30 prospects, and he shouldn't have been. He is (or rather, was) a 27-year-old Double-A pitcher with yawn-inspiring numbers.
This year? Finally, Waters blew through Double-A: 5-0 with a 1.69 ERA in six starts. Then came a promotion to Triple-A, where he … stunk: 3-6 with a 5.70 ERA in 18 games.
So why did he get the call to the majors, finally? In Waters' last start for Norfolk, last Thursday against Lehigh Valley, he pitched seven innings and gave up one hit.
That's right. In what must be the greatest week of his professional life, Waters has given up two hits in 15 innings.

All of which is unlikely enough. Just as unlikely: Waters already is enjoying a significant major league career. He won't be the best pitcher on that list and probably won't match Steve Woodard's 32 career wins. (Interesting tidbit: After three years out of baseball, Woodard is pitching in the minors again, and you never know.)

However, I do give Waters a 50-50 chance of catching Billy Rohr, who finished his career with three major league wins.

Good stuff. But Neyer rarely disappoints.

*****

Chad Bradford got traded to the Rays. Hard to evaluate the trade until we see who we get back but Bradford was the only free agent reliever from the 2006 offseason who did not disappoint.

But Dave Cameron at FanGraphs.com reminds us that submariner pitchers are fun. And he's right! Sometimes we get so caught up in the winning and losing, we don't appreciate a guy until he's gone. But it was nice having another submariner on the team. I mean, who didn't love Todd Frohwirth?

*****

John Sickels reviewed his preseason list of Oriole Top Prospects on his Minor League Ball blog.

It's a mixed bag but Matt Wieters continues to crush minor league pitching and Nolan Reimold looks to be close to the big club as well.

*****

Song of the Week:

I recently bought the re-issue of Liz Phair's classic 1993 album Exile in Guyville. Reissue. They let it go out of print! Criminal!

It's reasons like these that the major labels deserve whatever is coming to them.

Here's "Stratford-On-Guy" from said album. Enjoy.

The Crystal Ball '08: Chad Bradford

For all the bashing the Orioles took in the press for spending so much on free agent relievers (and the bashing that bullpen took all season long), it is important to remember that it wasn't all bad. One of the bright spots of the offseason signings and the Oriole bullpen was Chad Bradford.

Bradford appeared in 78 games (3rd most in the AL) for Baltimore in 2007 posting a 3.34 ERA and allowing only 1 homerun all season. The submarine pitcher is an extreme groundball pitcher and continued that trend in '07 with over 60% of balls hit for grounders when he is on the mound.

Look, obviously a groundball pitcher like Bradford is only as good as the fielders behind him. If you believe that Luis Hernandez is a defensive upgrade over Miguel Tejada (I believe he will be), then that only means good things for Mr. Bradford.

By the way, Chad Bradford is an excellent fielder for a relief pitcher. I guess with all those groundballs he induces, he would have to be.

So what does all this rambling mean? I don't know. Relief pitchers can be so volatile. With the improved fielding and, hopefully, not so much use, I expect a groundball pitcher like Bradford to perform slightly better in 2008. Look for an ERA closer to 3.00.

Don't Look Back In Anger

With a lull in the offseason action before the winter meetings, a look back at some items from the past season...

John Maine

Much wailing and gnashing of teeth was heard from some Baltimore fans about the O's trading away John Maine as an afterthought in the Kris Benson deal. Even my faith was shaken a bit early this season as Maine was looking like the real deal, pitcher's park and lack of DHs to face aside. The more I predicted his demise, the better he seemed to pitch. Well, at season's end it looks like Maine is beginning to come down to earth.

After a 10-4, 2.71 ERA first half, Maine posted a 4-6 record with a 5.53 ERA after the All-Star break. Pitching in a pitcher's park. In front of arguably the best defense in the NL. I'll say it again, no way a flyball pitcher like Maine succeeds in the AL, certainly not at Oriole Park. I expect his 3.91 ERA will be about the kind of pitcher he is, at least when he is under the best of circumstances.

Rodrigo Lopez

I thought it was a mistake to let Lopez go since I prophetically guessed that there would be injuries in the rotation this season. But Lopez got hurt out in Colorado and missed most of the season anyway so it all became a moot point.

But we did get a couple of minor league relievers that can strike batters out and keep the ball in the park. Jason Burch was hurt for most of the season but came back to pitch well for Frederick this year. Jim Miller excelled in Bowie and got called up to Norfolk before season's end. Both are young and miss bats so they may provide some inexpensive relief options for the O's in a couple of years. In retrospect, the trade wasn't so bad after all and I'm not even taking into consideration that Lopez had become a malcontent.

The Great Bullpen Experiment

The O's made news last offseason by quickly signing some free agent relievers to the tune of $42 million. How'd that work out?

Chad Bradford was overworked by Sam Perlozzo in my opinion but Dave Trembley nipped that in the bud and got him into a more reasonable 78 games when he was once on a pace for 90+. Bradford was forced to pitch in situations that he was not suited for due to injuries but still posted a very good 3.34 ERA and had 6 Win Shares out of the bullpen. Worth every penny.

Jamie Walker was also overworked a bit by the former manager but still posted a 3.23 ERA over 81 games and contributed 7 Win Shares out of the bullpen. Again, worth every penny.

Danys Baez sucked and as it turned out, he was hurt anyway. Baez got the biggest contract of the free agent relievers which was ironic because he had the most questionable credentials. He's had Tommy John surgery and who knows when he'll be back. Disaster.

Scott Williamson was signed for $900,000 to see if he could recapture that lightning that once resided in his right arm. He couldn't and was released after 16 appearances. But for the price of a Paul Bako, he was worth a flier. This one's a push.

The free agent relievers weren't the disaster they were portrayed to be but when your bullpen is still horrific with help from competent veterans, it doesn't help your case.

Jay Payton

Giving Payton $4.5 million per year was a questionable call made all the more so because the version we fans were treated to was not very Payton-y. However, the Orioles were desperate to find somebody to help out in leftfield so you can forgive them for reaching. Payton responded by posting the worst season of his career. (I'm beginning to think leftfield at Camden Yards is cursed. Curse of Conine? Or Surhoff?)

The last time Payton was so bad with the bat was 2002 and he responded the next year with the best year of his career. Hopefully, this is the case in 2008 and we can trade him to a contender for prospects during the season.