Free Nolan Reimold

"Yeah, great to see you too...again..."

So signing Vlad Guerrero has, for the moment, done exactly what I said it would do waaaay back before the Orioles had even signed him:

Vlad's signing would push Scott to left field, Felix Pie to the bench and Nolan Reimold to Norfolk. And that's fine. But what if Reimold goes to AAA and starts tearing it up for a couple months like he did in 2009? Assuming health for all the OF/1B/DH's involved, there is nowhere for him to play.

Nolan Reimold came to camp this spring ready to play. He finally looked healthy and fully recovered from his Achilles surgery. He ran well, played better defense (passable anyway) and hit like crazy. He controlled the strike zone, hit for power and generally looked like the guy who was a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2009.

And where did that get him? Banished to the AAA Norfolk Tides...because there is no room for him on the roster.

The guy needs to play. Some have diminished his value and called Reimold "overrated". But Reimold OPS'ed .831 in 2009...which is the same level of offense that Nick Markakis has provided over his five year career. (And yes...I'm throwing out 2010. He wasn't healthy. Period.) It's nothing to sneeze at. And if he can do that again or even improve on it...well, that's something this team needs to know before 2012's free agent season.

And this is not to disparage Guerrero at all. It was the combination of signing Derrek Lee and Guerrero that caused this situation. One or the other would have been great. Signing them both causes a logjam at positions where the O's have a guy on the farm ready to step in.

I said it then and I'll keep saying it. Reimold should be getting big league at bats. Now.

And until he does....I consider him exiled to Norfolk.

What Vlad Has Wrought, Part 2

This series was going to be a sprawling 3 or 4 part epic in which I tried to meticulously break down all the reactions to the Vladimir Guerrero deal but, quite frankly, I am sick of writing about Vlad, so this will be it.

In my first post, I looked at what Vlad Guerrero brings to the table for the 2011 Baltimore Orioles. In this post, we're going to look at what he does not bring.

A post over at ESPN.com opines that Vlad brings some things to the Oriole lineup that it was lacking. Here's something he doesn't bring: on base percentage.

The Orioles have been ranked in the lower half of the league in terms of OBP for the past 5 seasons and 2010 was especially bad in that respect. Guerrero, free swinger that he is, only got on base at a .345 clip in 2010 despite hitting .300. His walk rates for 2009 and 2010 were the worst of his career and that's saying something. I can't find a projection that puts his OBP for 2011 any higher than .335.

But that's not why the Orioles brought him to town.

This is true. Get people on base and Vlad can drive them in. The problem is, as I stated above, that the Orioles have trouble getting guys on base. The team had a .316 OBP in 2010. I don't think there are many hitters in baseball who can knock in 100 runs when his fellow hitters aren't getting on base.

"Oh, but Vlad had 115 RBI last season! Nobody on the Orioles had more than 76!" Allow me to respond to the RBI argument.

RBI, schmar-bee-aye.

You put Luke Scott in the Rangers last season and he gets 100 RBI too. Guaranteed.

Even among his supporters, I can't find anybody who will admit to thinking that Vlad will make a big impact in the win column:

Mark - 


Everyone talks about the process of becoming a winner. Well, it's gotta start at some point, even if it's a 6 or 8 game improvement. And Vlad can help with that.


Of course he won't put is in contention for anything. If you keep that mindset year in and year out you basically run in place. This organization used up it's goodwill with the fans years and years ago.


"One season doesn't mean anything" is the reason we are still fighting to get out of 5th place. Until a season DOES matter we will be where we've been for the last decade plus.

This is desperation talking. A fan who is happy to be thrown a bone. To be pandered to as the team makes a move that might be worth two or three wins if things break right. Sure, I would love for this team to win in 2011. I will be hoping for it. But this team ain't there yet. It's not. So you've relegated a viable lineup option in Nolan Reimold to Norfolk? I don't care what anybody says, I've made my case for him and I would rather watch a healthy Reimold crash and burn all season long than to watch Vlad take his hacks.

Ladies and gentlemen, the formula is clear. You have to get younger and you have to let those guys play if you ever hope to build a core of players to compete. The Yanks did it, the Red Sox did it, the Rays did it. The Orioles need to commit to it and just do it. I don't mind the Derrek Lee signing...there are no real options in AAA ready to play first base. I don't mind the Mark Reynolds trade...Josh Bell is clearly not ready and when he is, Reynolds can be moved across the diamond. But this signing blocks a couple younger guys and does nothing to advance the team beyond 2011. Given his recent stats, injury history and age, it is even questionable that he helps much this season either.

Wow, sounds like a great investment of your $8 million, huh?

And he is certainly not a bargain. The Orioles will pay him a total of $8 million which is way more than they needed to. I just don't get it. He seems to have been icing on the cake for this team, not a necessity but they moved off their initial $3-4 million offer even though there were few alternatives (if any) for Guerrero at that point. But ultimately, I can't get too upset over the money. It's an overpay, it's not good but as I always say, it's really hard for a one-year deal to be that bad for a team.

However, Daniel of Camden Crazies lays out a few reasons why we should care about the money and he might be changing my mind.

So, what we have is an aging DH, one that no longer resembles the perennial MVP candidate that he once was, who pushes a lesser defender out to left field, thus blocking the path of a guy who could put up numbers close to what Vlad will post anyway?

It not Vlad that bothers me...it's the philosophy that got him here.

What Vlad Has Wrought, Part 1

The signing if Vlad Guerrero, even the notion of the signing a couple of weeks ago, has brought about a lot of odd things. First, I have been called more names for being opposed to bringing Vlad to Baltimore than at any time during the 4+ years of publishing this blog. (Hell, I'm pretty sure it's the first time it's ever happened...) Baseball nerd. Whiner. Buzzkill. (edit: One of my Twitter followers, @Astand49, demands credit for the buzzkill line. So it is given... :-) )

He is not the first aging slugger I have cautioned against but there is something about Vlad that seems to have struck a chord with Oriole fans. Lots of them (probably most of them) love the guy and are really excited to have him in Baltimore. I am not. So instead of continuing to debate on Twitter or in the comments section of other blogs, I'll lay it out here, in detail, one final time. In this installment, I examine what Vlad will bring to the team.

This is a fairly typical argument I heard on Twitter over the past 24 hours so let's start here. I'll leave the money alone for now do what Vinnie asked. Look at the numbers.

That is a Hall of Fame career, no doubt. But the last two seasons, he has hit more like he did his rookie season and not the heights that he once reached. I've said it before but he and Luke Scott have exactly the same OPS over the last three seasons (.845 OPS). That's a good hitter but not a great one.

Anyone who has watched baseball over the past 15 years knows Vlad's offensive game: great power (now, good power), hits for average and does not walk. Free swingers like Guerrero do not age well historically. His walk rates over the past two seasons have been the lowest of his career and his OBP has suffered.He is  no longer a star.

Some have pointed to some positive clutch numbers from last season. Over his career, his clutch numbers are "un-clutchy" overall. I don't think Vlad is likely to hit like a madman with runner on base all of a sudden.

Running a lineup with Vlad in it through various iterations using the lineup analysis tool, he could add from 10-13 runs to the lineup if he's healthy and depending on how much Pie or Reimold would have played. It's not insignificant and could bring 2-3 extra wins with a little luck.

Vlad did rake against lefties last season. For his career, he hits them slightly better than righties. For the last three seasons, not so much. But he could help the Orioles lineup against left handed pitching, a weakness Baltimore batters over the last couple seasons.

Vlad brings nothing as far as the glove these days. The last two seasons, his rare fielding appearances have been horrific.

But he does provide depth. Even though he is limited to a DH role, it gives Buck Showalter a lot of different configurations for his lineup.

As for trade bait, I'm not sure what an exclusive DH will bring in a mid-season trade. In 2008, the White Sox only netted Justin Fuller, a light-hitting minor league middle infielder for Jim Thome. In 2006, the Yankees got three bad minor league relievers from Detroit for Gary Sheffield. Last season, Houston got a light-hitting minor league infielder and a marginal major league reliever in Mark Melancon. Even with Andy MacPhail trading acumen, I can't see him getting more than a useful major league reliever and even that's a stretch.

Compensation pick after the season? There wasn't much of a market for Guerrero's services this offseason. I can't imagine some team would be willing to surrender a draft pick next offseason to sign him. I find that scenario very unlikely.

What he does if bring another good (even if it's declining) bat to the lineup who should post an OPS north of .800 and help offset Baltimore's weaknesses against lefty pitching. He provides depth in case of injury and will make (probably) make the team better, even if the improvement is only slight. If (by some miracle, the Orioles go on a tear and contend, his presence could meant the difference between a wild card spot or going home. I don't think he will net the Orioles a compensation pick or any players of value at the trade deadline. But he may, if early enthusiasm among the fan base can be sustained, help sell more tickets in 2011, no small accomplishment.

Next post, we'll look at the potential drawbacks...

Vlad Guerrero is an Oriole. Double Rainbow Spotted Over Camden Yards

Vladimir Guerrero is reportedly a Baltimore Oriole, signing a 1-year $8 million deal.

You've already heard me rail against this signing enough. The Orioles should be giving at bats to Nolan Reimold and to a lesser extent, Felix Pie. I mean, Vlad OPSed .841 in 2010. Reimold OPSed .831 in his rookie year. I don't see Vlad improving on those numbers. There is a decent chance Reimold could. But I'll delve into that in a later post.

Most fans seem to be looking at the name on the back of the jersey more than Vlad's actual production of late. So they are happy. But Vlad won't help as much as everyone thinks. I've detailed that. Others have too. And I'm sure I will again.

Let's not even discuss the money. There is little chance he will be worth that much and given the reduced market for his services, that's an incredible overpay. It had better not affect the draft budget.

Now, Vlad's season is linked to Felix Pie, Nolan Reimold, maybe even Joe Mahoney. It will, at the very least, be interesting to watch how the season unfolds with all these moving parts. And it'll give me a theme to write about all season...

Why Signing Vlad Guerrero is a Bad Idea

As much as I hate commenting on hypothetical moves, it seems I'm already arguing about them on Twitter. So now I will elaborate as to why I am not thrilled with the idea of Vladimir Guerrero coming to Baltimore next season.

1. Vlad Guererro isn't Vlad Guerrero Anymore

From 1996 to 2007, Vlad was a monster. He hit .325/.391/.591 with 365 home runs and an OPS+ of 148. However, for the last 3 seasons he has hit .300/.350/.496 with 71 homers and an OPS+ of 121. That's a good hitter but not a great one. In addition, he can no longer play the field anymore. So given that he is no longer a monster at the plate...

2. Vlad Won't Help This Team That Much

If I believed the Orioles were going to contend this year, loading up on veteran help would make a lot of sense and would be banging the drum loudly for this signing. But this team is not a contender. Not this year. I figured that if everything goes perfectly and Vlad repeats his performance from last year, he might be worth a couple extra wins. Dan at Camden Crazies broke it down some more and figures Vlad would only be worth one win, maybe. So will it make that big a difference if this team wins 73 games instead of 71 or 72? I don't see how. Besides...

3. We Already Have A DH Who Hits Like Vlad

Over the past three seasons, Vlad has an .845 OPS. Luke Scott also has an .845 OPS over that span. In addition, he can still play the outfield or first base making him a versatile and valuable player. But why couldn't the team move Scott back out to left field and let Vlad DH full time? Well they could but...

4. Vlad Robs Young Hitters of At Bats

Vlad's signing would push Scot to left field, Felix Pie to the bench and Nolan Reimold to Norfolk. And that's fine. But what if Reimold goes to AAA and starts tearing it up for a couple months like he did in 2009? Assuming health for all the OF/1B/DH's involved, there is nowhere for him to play. Or by some chance, Brandon Snyder puts it together and tears up the International League. Without Vlad, Snyder could come up and DH with Scott moving to left. Not possible with Vlad on the roster. Ditto for Josh Bell.

At this point, it's more important for Pie and Reimold to get the at bats so the team can see if they will be useful nuggets going forward and to have flexibility to call up hitters from Norfolk who are deserving of promotion.

This team isn't going to win or lose because of Vlad Guerrero. Its fortune ride on the offensive development of Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold and on the advances Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and (possibly) Zach Britton make on the mound. An aging DH isn't going to make or break this team. So leave him alone and let the guys who are a decade younger play ball.