What If...Curt Schilling Had Remained an Oriole?

"No, Mr. Schilling. Thank YOU for YOUR service!"

It's a pretty slow day for Oriole news. Cuts are coming but really we are just waiting for Opening Day and spinning our wheels watching what now seem to be meaningless Spring Training contests. And the mind starts to wander...

So...what would've happened if, magically, the Orioles would have kept Curt Schilling instead of trading him to the Astros in 1990?

I used Baseball Refererce's "Neutralized Pitching" Tool. You can learn the particulars here but it allows me to go through, year by year, and adjust Schilling's numbers as he has to pitch in the American League with Memorial Stadium/Camden Yards as his home ballpark. How would that have looked?

It could have looked something like this. The years highlighted in yellow are his post-Oriole years adjusted by the Neutralized Pitching tool for a fictional Oriole career:

A few observations...

First, Schilling would have won much more than he shows here from 1996-1999 when the Oriole offenses were well above average (The tool provides for league average run support...) but that would be evened out by the mediocre offenses of the early 90's and early 2000's so the career win totals would not be affected that much.

Second, who would've liked Baltimore's chances in the playoffs in '96 with Mike Mussina and Schilling at the top of the rotation? Better yet, how about a rotation of Schilling, Mussina, Jimmy Key and Scott Erickson in 1997? It would have been a thing of beauty.

Curt's career numbers in real life and Oriole life:

               W     L     ERA   K   BB   HR   
Reality Curt  216   146   3.46 3116 711  347   
Oriole Curt   205   135   3.65 3024 724  350

Pitching the bulk of his career in the AL would have diminished his overall stats a little but they are still pretty close. And there is a chance that (gasp!) he could have won back to back World Series titles with the Orioles in '96 and '97.

It's fun to dream...

A Quick Note on Steroids...

I am going to post this so I can refer to it in the future...

Another player who played from 1988-2003 has tested positive for steroids. Really, this is no surprise. It has happened before and will surely happen again. When I am 75 years old, people will be coming forward with proof that Player X took steroids back in the 1990's. I haven't been surprised for awhile and will never be surprised in the future. I won't be surprised if it turns out that Calvin Edwin Ripken, Jr. himself used steroids to some extent.

It matters not. The Steroids Era is easily placed into context and nobody should be excluded from the Hall of Fame simply because they are linked to steroid use. The problem was so widespread, we have to assume a great majority of the players from the 1990's were using. No one can be assumed to be "clean".

The best post I've seen lately about steroids is here:

http://www.bugsandcranks.com/the-clubhouse/steve-hulkower/how-are-so-many-people-upset-about-something-they-dont-even-understand/

OK, resume party...

O.G. Orioles...This Ain't Pretty

Reading this article by Matthew Namee at The Hardball Times got me thinking. Namee hypothetically returns all MLB players to the original organizations they signed with and takes a look at the rosters. He only covered the teams that could field competent major league rosters so, of course, the Orioles were left out of the article. You can guess what comes next.

If you aren't eating anything, take a look at the 2008/2009 Baltimore Orioles 25 man roster consisting only of players originally signed by the club.

The Starting Lineup

C Matt Wieters
1B Jayson Werth
2B Brian Roberts
SS Augie Ojeda
3B Brandon Fahey
RF Nick Markakis
CF Willie Harris
LF Nolan Reimold
DH Gregg Zaun

Wieters would have been rushed to the bigs and along with Roberts and Markakis would be the bright spots in the lineup. Fahey would be forced to play third and former catching prospect (and current Phillies outfielder) Werth would be converted to firstbase.

I figured that the organization would rush Reimold to the majors in lieu of trotting out Alex Ochoa in left. Current Nationals centerfielder Harris would be back in black and orange. Ditto at DH for Rick Dempsey's nephew.

The Bench

C Eli Whiteside
Util Jerry Hairston
Util Mike Fontenot

Whiteside would be the only available option for a backup catcher. Eeesh. Hairston could be the fourth outfielder and Fontenot would be a capable infield backup.

The Rotation

SP Mike Mussina
SP Erik Bedard
SP Daniel Cabrera
SP John Maine
SP Garrett Olson

It's not a great rotation but, given good health, it's better than we have right now! Brian Matusz would still be waiting in the minors for a shot to crack this rotation too. John Maine would be competent in the AL but not great and Mussina would be wrapping up an illustrious Oriole career.

The Bullpen

RHP Jim Johnson
RHP Hayden Penn
LHP John Parrish
RHP Chris Britton
RHP Radhames Liz
RHP Jim Hoey
LHP Arthur Rhodes
RHP Chris Ray

Liz and Penn take the Albers\Johnson route to the bigs and are probably better for it. But overall, the pen is shaky outside of Johnson and Ray. Welcome back Arthur Rhodes!

In conclusion, it's just another example of the Oriole's poor drafting over the years. The inability to develop corner infielders and corner outfielders is especially glaring since those prosepcts are usually to easiest to find!

Also, only two players on this list were signed from outside of the U.S. (Cabrera and Liz). That will have to change if the Orioles hope to return to contention.

Tomorrow, a check in with some of those players that we hope will change that!