Sweet Victory

For a change, it's the O's coming from behind to win!





Two dramatic victories on Friday and Sunday capped a series win over the AL East leading Red Sox. Games like these are great on their own but are also fun for WPA graphs. Here's a couple. First, Friday's game. (I wonder if Red Sox fans are calling it the S'mores Day Massacre...)





The O's were dead to rights after the top of the 8th. Boston had given itself a 95% chance to win before the O's rallied to tie it up. (Thanks Eric Gagne...) Roberts and Mora delivered the big blows as far as WPA.



Now to Sunday...



Circumstances were not quite as dire but again in the bottom of the 8th the O's rally against Gagne to tie it up and win it in extras. As big as Millar's homer was, it was Tejada and Huff with the biggest clutch hitting of the game with Danys Baez getting the most crucial outs of the game.

The only negative of the series was that the Yankees have pulled within 4 games of the Red Sox with Baltimore's win. I don't care about the Red Sox but I've never been able to work up a good hatred for them like I have for the Yankees and Blue Jays, maybe because the Sox and O's haven't had title runs at the same time in the last 25 years. Outside of their annoying fatalism (at least from native New Englanders) I really have nothing against them. So Baltimore needs to smack down the Yankess over the next three days to even up the score...

Mora Flashes the Glove

Since he made a great play yesterday, I thought I'd check in with Melvin Mora's defensive prowess this year. He's second among AL thirdbasemen in Fielding Percentage, first in Range Factor and 5th in the league at reaching balls out of his zone, even with the lost time to injuries. Mora's fielding, if not his bat, has been a reason to watch the O's this season.

Gibbons Is Done

Mercifully, Jay Gibbon's 2007 season has been put out of its misery when the team put him on the DL for season ending shoulder surgery. While I guess it's a silver lining that some of his offensive woes could be due to injury, he certainly wasn't hitting before the May injury either. Jay will have to make a remarkable comeback and have a huge spring if he hopes to don the black and orange in 2008.

O's Swept, Winning Season Slipping Away...

...and Andy McPhail seems to see it that way too.

Looking toward the future, McPhail dumped (essentially) utilityman Chris Gomez and lefty reliever John Parrish yesterday.

I like John Parrish. He's a product of the organization and he can be a good pitcher...in small doses. Parrish was overworked early in the season and was never really the same after mid-May. As strictly a LOOGY type who comes out only to face a lefty hitter or two each appearance, I think he would be fine. Unfortunately, this team doesn't have the luxury of carrying a guy like that, the bullpen is too unsettled and the starting rotation doesn't have guys that go 6 or 7 innings on a regular basis. If you're making a playoff run, Parrish can be useful but not for us. In return the O's get Sebstien Boucher, a AAA outfielder with some speed but a guy who hasn't hit much above A ball.

There seems to be some considerable angst from O's fans about the loss of Chris Gomez for basically nothing. I really don't get it the concern. Gomez is a nice part-time player but that's it. He's hitting .300 but it's a light .300 with as he's only slugging .391. He's versatile but won't Freddie Bynum be just as versatile when healthy? Or Brandon Fahey? Even Luis Hernandez has shown enough to be considered for a utility role. Gomez is also 36 and not in the team's plans beyond this year anyway. Again, a fine role player who I would love to have if Baltimore was thinking playoff run but he's not right for this team now. We have younger, cheaper talent that we can have fill that role next year.

I like that Jim Hoey is up again, hopefully for the rest of the season. He's dominated AA and AAA this year so it's time for him to learn how to get teh big boys out. Now, calling up Tike Redmond I really don't understand. If Jay Gibbons is really that hurt, put him on the DL and bring up J.R House. House can flat out hit and he doesn't have a position either!

Anyway, hopefully some guys who may be involved in the Orioles' future will get a look this fall.

Escapism

The O's get pummeled 10-3...Barry Bonds is the new homeruns champ...the Yankees are claing their way back into the AL East race...

Man, baseball sucks today. Time to have some fun with statistics and create a nice diversion for myself and maybe for you guys too.

Erik Bedard - Strikeout King

Erik Bedard has 192 K's with about 7 starts left on the year. Barring injury, he looks to be a cinch to pass Mike Mussina who currently holds the Baltimore Oriole record for stikeouts in a season with 218. However, he also has a shot at an even more impressive feat of passing the franchise record for K's in a season. Bedard only needs 41 mores punch-outs to surpass Rube Wadell's total of 232 that he set for the St. Louis Browns, a record that has stood since 1908!

O(riole)PS+ Leaders

OPS+
Frank Robinson, 1966 199
Frank Robinson, 1967 188
Jim Gentile, 1961 184
Boog Powell, 1964 176
Ken Singleton, 1977 165
Frank Robinson, 1969 165
Chris Hoiles, 1993 163
Boog Powell, 1970 163
Cal Ripken, 1991 162
Boog Powell, 1969 160

First off, I knew Chris Hoiles had a monster year in 1993 but I had no idea how favorably it would compare to, say, Cal Ripken's MVP season. In retrospect, he was completely overlooked for MVP consideration that year, placing 16th in voting despite putting up the 4th highest OPS in the AL that season from the catcher's position! He didn't even make the All-Star team even though he hit .300 with 18 homers in the first half! Robbery!

Oh, to be an O's fan in the late 60's. You could've seen Frank Robinson put up three of the six best slugging seasons in team history. And you would have seen Boog Powell put up three more in the top 10 (give or take a year).

He's a Winner?

Since he arrived in 2004, only Erik Bedard has as many wins (39) as Daniel Cabrera. I don't know if that means anything...just sayin'.

How Good is It?

Brian Roberts' season? Pretty extraordinary for a secondbaseman. At this pace, he will steal 45 bases, hit 40 doubles and bat better than .300 this season. In the history of baseball, no other player has matched that combination of speed, power and contact except for Craig Biggio's amazing 1998 campaign (.325, 51 2B, 50 SB).

Where Are They Now?: The 1997 Oriole Draftees

I haven't done one of these in awhile so since there's an off-day, let's depress ourselves, shall we? Another Pat Gillick draft so brace yourselves...


Jayson Werth - C - High School - 1st Round

Werth is now in the Phillies organization and up until this point hasn't distinguished himself as anything more than a backup player at the major league level (he is a backup outfielder for Philadelphia now) but the O's traded him away for even less value than that. He was traded to Toronto in 2000 for P John Bale. Remember him? I wouldn't blame you if you didn't. He pitched in 14 games in relief for Baltimore in 2001 and the O's miraculously were able to trade this marginal journeyman pitcher for Gary Matthews Jr. the next offseason. Matthews spent a year and a half with Baltimore before being released. The Orioles would've been better off just keeping Werth ultimately.


Darnell McDonald - OF - High School - 1st Round

McDonald spent 7 long years in the Baltimore organization and finally got a cup of coffee in 2004. He is now in the Minnesota organization. He has hit .269 and OPS'd .721 in 10 minor league seasons.


Ntema Ndungi - OF - High School - 1st Round

Ndungi rose as high as AA Bowie in 2001. Never hit much. Out of baseball.


Sean Douglass - P - High School - 2nd Round

Played bits of three seasons for the O's from 2001-2003 with an ERA over 6.00. Out of baseball.

Matt Riley - P - High School - 3rd Round

"He's got a million dollar arm and a five-cent head." They were referring to Nuke LaLoosh but they may as well have been talking about Riley. Injuries didn't help his development either. He was traded to Texas for RP Gabe White who was way past being an effective relief pitcher by then. Riley is pitching in relief for AAA Las Vegas.


Shannon Carter - OF - High School - 4th Round

Made it as high as AAA but never learned to hit above A ball. Out of baseball.


Rick Bauer - P - Treasure Valley Community College - 5th Round

Rick had some success as a reliever for Baltimore for a few seasons. He was 11-14 with a 4.34 ERA over 6 major league seasons. He's now reunited with Matt Riley pitching out of the pen in Las Vegas.


Baleb Balbeuna - P - Long Beach State University - 6th Round

Did not sign. Wasted pick. Drafted and signed the next year by Seattle. Out of baseball.


Ricky Casteel - P - Northeast Texas Community College - 7th Round

Casteel went 10-20 with a 4.22 ERA over 3 minor league seasons. Never rose above low A ball.


Jay Spurgeon - P - High School - 8th Round

Got a cup of coffee in 2000. Out of baseball.


Top Ten Draft Pick Stats

Number that are\were regular contributors for the O's: 1
Number still in the organization: 0
Number traded for regular contributors: 0
Number out of baseball: 6
Diamonds in the rough: 1


Conclusion

Next to some other drafts, this one doesn't look so bad (but it ain't great). The diamond in the rough was Jerry Hairston who was almost good enough to displace Brian Roberts at one point but the only other player that was of any use was Rick Bauer. Except for Werth.

The Return of Nestor

Nestor quit blogging there for awhile and even on the odd occasion when he did, the frothing, mindless spewing seemed to have been tabled. I would love to think I had just a little bit to do with that (hell, somebody is reading this) but I figure he just ran out of bile. No spewing from Nestor in his blog post last week concerning "Free The Birds 2" but a couple inconsistencies I would like to highlight:


Dear BALTIMORE Orioles fan:


The time for FREE THE BIRDS 2 has come…


Today, I am reaching out to you to see if you’re still interested in another massive event…If YOU are in, I'M IN! If not, we'll move on...


I have gone on record before saying that the declining attendence figures, half-empty stadiums and general disinterest of the fan base does far more to force Peter Angelos' hand than any staged protest (especially one where people put money in the owner's pockets in the process). The cynic in me also finds it to be a bit of publicity stunt for WNST and a cheap way to get national press. But fine, I'll take it on the face that Nestor wants the team to improve just like the rest of us. This is not what is bothering me today...


Sure, they’ve won a few games over the last month and the new manager seems to be an improvement, but has there been ANY signal that this franchise and this ownership group has “changed its stripes” in regard to how it treats the fans and the city of Baltimore?


Yeah, they've won a few. 15 in July. Winning at a .600 clip. Baltimore hasn't had a month like that since April of 2005. The franchise owes this to the fans; to field a winner. This last month has been a "signal" that maybe they are trying to do the right thing by fans. Just win baby.


We want our memories back and we want our good times at Orioles games back.


Ah, memories. Trading Eddie Murray away for peanuts. Trading Mickey Tettleton away for Jeff Robinson. Trading away Curt Schilling, Pete Harnisch and Steve Finley for Glen Davis. Starting seasons 0-21. Man, those were good times.


This franchise has not been a consistent contender for 24 years. The glory days were from 1964-1983; 20 years of contention. The most we have seen in the last 24 years is fleeting flashes of hope. I'm not pining for the old days, I'm hoping for something new now.


We do not want to stage an “empty” walkout, like those poor people in Pittsburgh.


OK, this is the part I don't understand. You would think Nestor would feel some comraderie with the Pittsburgh fans and cheer their efforts. Instead, he derides them (and this isn't the first time). Why is it empty? According to reports (AP, Pittsburgh Post Gazette) out of Pittsburgh, they had around 1000 people involved in the walkout. According to reports (AP, MLB) out of Baltimore, there were about 1000 people involved in Free The Birds last year. They were very similar in scope and focus. C'mon Nestor, share the love!


We had more than 2,000 people last September – anything less would be an embarrassment, so why bother?


See above. You didn't have that many people...


This is NOT a publicity “stunt” in ANY WAY!


Hmmm. OK. Don't you get suspicious of posts with big capital letters? Why is he protesting so vehemently?


If enough people are truly interested, we will organize it. If not, we’ll anxiously await the start of the Ravens season.


You can wait for the Ravens, Nestor. I'll be over here watching the O's take a shot at their first winning season in 9 years.

O's Done With Tejada

I was going to write a lot of stuff this morning about how admirable it was for Erik Bedard to again battle through for a win even when he didn't have his best stuff. or I was going to write about how I like Dave Trambley's no nonsense approach to building an effective bullpen. Or maybe I was just going to write that I'll take 3-3 over the last six games given some of the tough competition the O's have coming up.

But the report from ESPN (and strangely nowhere to be found in the Baltimore Sun...yet) is that the O's tried to pass Miguel Tejada through waivers with the intention of trading him has grabbed my attention and now I can write of nothing else until I address this.

It was nearly impossible for Baltimore to trade Miggy before the deadline, being that he was injured and all and apparently only because they couldn't work out an acceptable deal with the White Sox is the only reason Tejada is still in the black and orange. The team says he will remain with the team for the rest of the year so, for now, it's a non-story except for one point. The Miguel Tejada era seems to be over.

For the first time, the O's have shown true interest in trying to trade Tejada and there is now obvious interest in the marketplace for him. Miggy is not the player he once was but how many teams out there would love to have a shortstop that can hit .300 with 15-20 HR pop left in his bat. That a nice upgrade for 75% of the teams in the league. Expcect Tejada to be somewhere else come Opening Day 2008.

The more interesting prospect is who will replace him. Luis Hernandez looks to be much better than Tejada with the glove at this point but will be a huge dropoff in offense (even though he has shown he can handle a bat at the major league level). Will Brandon Fahey be handed the job? Many in the organization seem to love the guy. Will it be addressed through free agency?

Lots to watch in Andy McPhail's first offseason, that's for sure.

Base Hits: 8/1/2007

The Wayward Oriole points out quite correctly that Dave Trembley bears a striking resemblence to William Shatner.

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Hayden Penn is pitching rehab down in the Gulf Coast League. Don't forget about this guy. As impressive as Garrett Olsen's numbers look at AAA (9-6, 2.95 ERA in 20 games), Penn's numbers were even better last year (7-4, 2.26 in 14 games).

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Ben over at Oriole Central covers the lack of movement at the trading deadline, Dave Trembley and his fixation with Mark Teixera.

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I can't believe I'm doing this but I'm going to quote an Amber Theoharis article and I won't unmercifully mock it. From her column in PresboxOnline.com:

Here's a deep thought out of the mouth of a Yankees scout: Many hitters in the American League say Daniel Cabrera has some of the nastiest stuff when he's on. The problem is he can't always repeat that "stuff" inning after inning and start after start. If that's the case, why isn't he a closer?
Pause here. There isn't supposed to be any retorts in "Deep Thoughts," but there needs to be a voice of reason here. Cabrera is 25 years old. That's it. The man didn't pick up a baseball until he was 16. He's 6-foot-9 after growing two inches in the offseason. Cabrera is still getting used to his own body. Plus, in most of his starts this year, he has gone more than six innings. The Orioles would be crazy to cease grooming him as a starter this early in his career. Maybe in 10 years Cabrera will be a closer, not now.

Couldn't have said it better myself.

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Also from Press Box, Phil Jackman's On The Other Hand column:

It seems a tad hypocritical for WBAL Radio to complain about not being allowed to play tapes of Cal Ripken career milestones leading up to Cooperstown by the current rights holder (CBS Radio) when it pulled a similar stunt last football season.

Outstanding point.

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Haven't posted a WPA graph in awhile. Here's last night's game, courtesy of FanGraphs:

Erik Bedard was the WPA leaders for pitchers, Brian Roberts for batters...