The Crystal Ball '09: Nick Markakis

Nick Markakis turned is another great season for Baltimore in 2008 and continues his steady improvement at the plate.

Like last year, for your enjoyment, Markakis' hit chart at Camden Yards for 2008.

It's like the Sistine Chapel. It's gorgeous.

Last offseason, I compared Markakis favorably to Enos Slaughter and Ellis Burks and used those players' age 24 seasons to predict Nick's 2008. Here is that projection compared to the actual stats:

                      BA   2B  HR   OBP   SLG   OPS
Markakis Predicted   .309  39  27  .365  .502  .867
Markakis Actual      .306  48  20  .406  .491  .897

 

I thought a few more of those doubles would go over the fence and I didn't anticipate Markakis' batting eye to improve so much in one season but the projection was pretty spot on.

As the season went on, I became more convinced that Markakis is the second coming of Enos Slaughter. Both are/were lefties, both play(ed) rightfield and both are/were very good fielders with great arms, at least when young.

Their bats are very similar as well:

OPS+

            Age 22     Age 23     Age 24
Markakis     106        121        134
Slaughter    105        122        133
   

Spooky, huh?

Slaughter's OPS+ at age 25 was 141. How do we get Markakis there? I'll say:

                BA   2B   HR   OBP   SLG   OPS   OPS+
Markakis '09  .315   40   29  .415  .520  .935   141
   

Add to that his Gold Glove caliber defense in right (he should have won a Gold Glove last year), the Orioles would do well to sign him to a long term contract before Spring Training. It will only get harder once his breakout 2009 is under way.