OK, I'm going to be way out on an island, all by myself, with this opinion. I'm going to be far more alone than any of my opinions on Vladimir Guerrero.
I am not happy that the Orioles knocked the Red Sox from the playoffs last night.
Hear me out...
Firstly, last night was an incredible night of baseball. Putting on my MLB fan and amateur baseball analyst hats, it was amazing to behold. But as an Oriole fan, I couldn't get caught up in the big game atmosphere.
What was in it for the Orioles exactly? They were essentially deciding which of our AL East rivals made the playoffs. And we all got excited about that? Again, as a baseball fan, amazing stuff. As an Oriole fan...what do we take away from that? It's like sitting on the floor and begging for the scraps of Boston and Tampa's big game moment. This was not a big game for the Orioles. The difference between 68 and 69 wins is absolutely nothing. We were just living vicariously through good teams. And I couldn't help but being a little depressed by that state of affairs.
This is all we got out of it: Boston fans are obnoxious and we got to send them home with their tails between their legs. A short term thrill, I'm sure. "Yeah, Boston! This is our house! We ended your season! We get the last word for a change!" Awesome.
But even if you cared one way or another how the Rays/Sox playoff race turned out, I would make the argument that Oriole fans should have preferred Boston in the playoffs.
The knee-jerk reaction to the Red Sox collapse is that this will be a devastating blow to the organization. A death blow. A failure that will result in a changing of the guard and a decline of the team into mediocrity. I would love for that to be the case but that's probably not going to happen.
Boston fans are not clamoring for the heads of Terry Francona and Theo Epstein. Nor is the Boston press. While acknowledging that this collapse was really, really horrible, measured responses are being seen in most corners. No one in the Red Sox management seems to be in danger of being forced out.
Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Gonzalez, John Lester, Dustin Pedroia, Clay Bucholz and Jacoby Ellsbury are all coming back. They have prospects popping up all over the end of year Top 20 lists over at Baseball America. This is not the end of the Boston Red Sox. Win or lose, they will fill some holes, resign some guys, heal their injured and be right back among the favorites to take the division in 2012.
Tampa is a formidable organization but they have an Achilles Heel...they have no fans.
Even as dreadful as the Orioles have been, they have outdrawn the Rays 3 of the last 4 years. If the Rays start going to the playoffs on a regular basis...could the fan base start to gel? If you think battling the Yankees and Red Sox is tough, imagine the Rays with a decent source of cash flow. One of the best farm systems in baseball coupled with the cash to keep some of it? Scary.
If we had done this to the Yanks, I could see it being a bigger blow. With the new ownership, heads may have rolled in the Bronx. And they are an aging team with a fair, but not great, farm system. The Sox aren't going anywhere, not yet. The Orioles have enough hurdles to surmount without the Rays being perennial contenders too.
So I don't see the Rays as a fell good story. They aren't cute and cuddly to me. They are a threat. A sleeping giant. They are like Gremlins before they get wet. And I want to crush them like a bug before they become dangerous.
Perhaps I'm wrong about all this. Maybe this will hurt the Sox more than I realize. Maybe the Rays will always have cash flow challenges, no matter how much they win.
But I don't want to look back years from now and realize this game was the turning point that opened the door to a decade long Tampa Bay baseball dynasty. So I hope the Ranger sweep them, in humiliating fashion, right back to the Gulf Coast where they belong.
Showing posts with label Red Sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Red Sox. Show all posts
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Did the Orioles Sink the Red Sox Back in May?
Yesterday I posted a blurb about how the Orioles dealt a death blow to the Angels season and wondered if they might do the same thing to the Red Sox this month. According to the Boston Herald's John Tomase, maybe they did it back in May when they swept the Sox in a three-game set at Camden Yards:
The Red Sox actually began that series on a bit of a roll. They had won 5-of-6 and were coming off a three-game sweep in Toronto that perhaps spoke more to the Blue Jays’ early-season ineptitude against the Sox than anything the visitors had done.
At 11-11, the Red Sox had finally returned to .500 for the first time since 4-4. They already trailed the Tampa Bay Rays by 5 games in the AL East and didn’t want to risk falling any further behind.
The Orioles appeared to be the perfect foes. Baltimore was just 4-18 and in the process of costing manager Dave Trembley his job....
The Red Sox have righted the ship since that 11-14 start, but not enough to seriously reinsert themselves into the playoff race. For that fading goal to have any semblance of hope, they’ll need to do a lot better with the Orioles, who are 16-10 since Buck Showalter took over as manager (Trembley was replaced for a time by Juan Samuel), this week than they did in the spring.
Remember the Mother's Day Massacre from 2007? Of course you do. Lost in all the misery of the losing earlier in 2010 is the fact that we have given the Red Sox their own heartburn, a series they refer to as The Lost Weekend, a time where their playoff-contending momentum was derailed by a wretched, demoralized Baltimore club.
If the Red Sox had swept the Orioles that weekend (as many clubs were doing at that point), they would be 4 games back instead of the 7 they find themselves now. Still a tough hill to climb but 7 games looked nearly insurmountable now, especially given who they are chasing.
If they lose this series to the Orioles, they could find themselves as much as 9-10 games back. Season over. Here's hoping the Orioles oblige them.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Orioles Dash Angels Playoff Hopes...Who's Next?
The Angels entered the weekend 9.5 games behind the Rangers for the AL West title and with, by record, the worst team in the American League coming to town. They and their fans were still deluding themselves about this being the beginning of a run at a playoff spot.
They can't be thinking that now. Over a weekend where they could have made up some ground on the Rangers, they scored one run all sereies, got swept and now sit 10.5 games behind the Rangers with 31 games to go in 2010. Season over, courtesy of the Baltimore Orioles.
Red Sox fans are just as delusional. They really think that they can still catch the Yankees and/or the Rays even though they are 5.5 games back with 31 to go. That's a lot to overcome barring a collapse by one of those teams which is highly unlikely because those teams are both pretty damn good.
Can the Orioles have an impact on the playoff race? Probably not a big one. But with 6 games against the Red Sox in September, they can certainly squash any hope Boston has for a postseason berth.
They can't be thinking that now. Over a weekend where they could have made up some ground on the Rangers, they scored one run all sereies, got swept and now sit 10.5 games behind the Rangers with 31 games to go in 2010. Season over, courtesy of the Baltimore Orioles.
Red Sox fans are just as delusional. They really think that they can still catch the Yankees and/or the Rays even though they are 5.5 games back with 31 to go. That's a lot to overcome barring a collapse by one of those teams which is highly unlikely because those teams are both pretty damn good.
Can the Orioles have an impact on the playoff race? Probably not a big one. But with 6 games against the Red Sox in September, they can certainly squash any hope Boston has for a postseason berth.
Monday, May 3, 2010
Repercussions of the Sweep
As much fun as it was to watch the Oriole sweep of the Red Sox, it is almost as much fun watching the aftermath in New England. Here's a taste:
Eric Wilbur - Boston Globe: O What A Disaster
There are worse things in baseball than getting swept by the Orioles, but...no, actually that's it. Getting swept by the Orioles is the worst thing in baseball. There....
After watching this team for the past 30 days, anyone who thinks they can make a run at the American League East without either making drastic moves or drinking from the Fountain of Youth (provided it is MWRA approved) is driving the optimistic train to la-la land. Run prevention has become a bigger joke than "Where would we play Willie McGee?"
...Perhaps that's a portion of the reason that you can inexplicably find tickets for this week against the Angels for as little as $6 on StubHub - even more surprising, $6 standing room seats for John Lackey's first start against his former club. Still, isn't that telling all the same?
Tony Massorotti -The Boston Globe: Sox Succeeding Only to Keep It Close
The Red Sox already have lost twice as many games to the wretched Baltimore Orioles as they did all of last season, dropping the third and final game yesterday in a weekend sweep at the hands of the worst team in baseball.
It’s starting to feel like this could be a long summah – and the Sox know it.
"It doesn’t get any easier. Everyone thought Baltimore was three easy wins, and we got our [behinds] kicked three times," second baseman Dustin Pedroia told reporters after yesterday’s loss.
Boston Dirt Dogs - The Boston Globe: Widespread Panic
Sox Swept in the Place Formerly Known as Fenway South, A Nation Prepares to Throw in the Towel on 2010...Getting Swept in Baltimore Is Inexcusable and Unforgivable.
John Tomase - Boston Herald: Big Changes Looming After Sox Swept By Lowly O's
The Red Sox are a dysfunctional mess. Victor Martinez can’t hit to save his life. Beltre keeps making poor plays defensively and has become a free-swinging singles hitter. Mike Lowell is struggling to find a groove while playing sporadically. Jacoby Ellsbury [stats]’s injury and absence have killed them.
Eric Wilbur - Boston Globe: O What A Disaster
There are worse things in baseball than getting swept by the Orioles, but...no, actually that's it. Getting swept by the Orioles is the worst thing in baseball. There....
After watching this team for the past 30 days, anyone who thinks they can make a run at the American League East without either making drastic moves or drinking from the Fountain of Youth (provided it is MWRA approved) is driving the optimistic train to la-la land. Run prevention has become a bigger joke than "Where would we play Willie McGee?"
...Perhaps that's a portion of the reason that you can inexplicably find tickets for this week against the Angels for as little as $6 on StubHub - even more surprising, $6 standing room seats for John Lackey's first start against his former club. Still, isn't that telling all the same?
Tony Massorotti -The Boston Globe: Sox Succeeding Only to Keep It Close
The Red Sox already have lost twice as many games to the wretched Baltimore Orioles as they did all of last season, dropping the third and final game yesterday in a weekend sweep at the hands of the worst team in baseball.
It’s starting to feel like this could be a long summah – and the Sox know it.
"It doesn’t get any easier. Everyone thought Baltimore was three easy wins, and we got our [behinds] kicked three times," second baseman Dustin Pedroia told reporters after yesterday’s loss.
Boston Dirt Dogs - The Boston Globe: Widespread Panic
Sox Swept in the Place Formerly Known as Fenway South, A Nation Prepares to Throw in the Towel on 2010...Getting Swept in Baltimore Is Inexcusable and Unforgivable.
John Tomase - Boston Herald: Big Changes Looming After Sox Swept By Lowly O's
The Red Sox are a dysfunctional mess. Victor Martinez can’t hit to save his life. Beltre keeps making poor plays defensively and has become a free-swinging singles hitter. Mike Lowell is struggling to find a groove while playing sporadically. Jacoby Ellsbury [stats]’s injury and absence have killed them.
Evan Brunell -NESN.com: Is It time for Red Sox to Consider Changes?
A month has gone by, and it is clear that things have to change for the Red Sox to start winning. Is it as simple as waiting for Mike Cameron and Jacoby Ellsbury to return?
Or is something bigger needed?
One thing this team could stand to add is home-run power. Well, there's a slugger on fire in the minor leagues that just might be ready. That's none other than Lars Anderson, who slogged through a poor 2009 at Double-A before tearing the level apart this season and getting a promotion to Triple-A.
...Want home runs but don't think Anderson or Reddick is the solution? Perhaps Chris Davis is.
Speaking of looking outside the Red Sox organization ...
...Is the Red Sox' future designated hitter currently cranking home runs in Washington (Adam Dunn)?
...Or could a ex-Boston left fielder assured of making the Hall of Fame and still ripping the cover off the ball make a return to town? Paging Manny Being Manny.
(This is my favorite. Brunell is a tool who has written about Baltimore derisively and arrogantly viewed them as a Sox farm team (especially when he hungrily eyed young Nick Markakis). I love watching him flail for solutions like Chris Davis, Manny Ramirez and rushing young prospects to try to save an lost season. Good stuff.)
Wednesday, July 1, 2009
Red Sox Reaction
Gotta enjoy these while we can...
Surviving Grady
Apparently, sometime after the rain delay of last night's game, Tito decided to give the lads a rest and replaced the entire team -- particularly the bullpen -- with robot doppelgangers. This was evident the moment the Sox headed off the field with only two outs in the bottom of the sixth; robots, despite their advanced computer brains, are notoriously bad at counting outs. And because robot players are also inherently lazy and nonchalant, within what seemed the blink of an eye, our comfy 10-1 lead became an 11-10 kick to the pills. So what should have been a chapter for the John Smoltz memory books became a first-night-in-prison hazing for our relief corps.
Over the Monster
Then, something disastrous happens; the opposing team forgot that they were supposed to lose this game, and the first team (our heroes) reminds us all that an entire bullpen can have an off-night. I'm not sure there's anymore I want to say about this game.
Extra Bases
Manny Delcarmen walked out of the Red Sox clubhouse right behind Justin Masterson, just after midnight, and placed his hand on Masterson’s left shoulder. “Unbelievable, dude,” Delcarmen said, and then they both walked silently down the tunnel toward the exit.
Boston Dirt Dogs
Papelblown!
Sox Blow the Biggest Lead in the History of Earth
Final: Baltimore 11, Boston 10
When Push Comes to Save, Papelbon Is No Mariano
But It Was Nice That He Got That Ceremonial Save on Monday
Markakis Cracks Two-Run Double Off Pap to Give Orioles the Improbable Win
Joy of Sox
Okay, so maybe watching last night's game was like passing a kidney stone ...Earl Weaver once said, "This ain't football, we do this every day." And so last night becomes a distant memory -- and lo: A new day and a new game.(Still, if everyone in the bullpen was going to have a shitty outing, it was awfully nice of them to do it all in the same game.)
Red Sox Monster
So there we all were, watching the Red Sox cruise along in the sixth inning with a 10-1 lead against the worst team in the American League East.
And then what happens? A cherry bomb goes off in our hands, that's what....
...it's not every day that a team is historically bad, which the Red Sox qualified for tonight by allowing the biggest comeback win in Baltimore Orioles history.
Comments on the game thread from Sons of Sam Horn:
It's weird, it's the same thing for me. This is a totally ridiculous loss and I'm sure that it'll bother me later, but right now, I'm more amazed than anything.
Embarassing. I haven't seen a little water cause somebody to melt this badly since Margaret Hamilton.
what a nightmare
One of the worst losses I've ever seen. Brutal.
That's the worst loss of the season - hands down - absolutely disgusting and unnecessary. What a choke!
Markakis is 0-7 vs Paps w/ 4 Ks. (1 minute later) Wow. I mean, I am SOOOOOOOOOOOOO GLAD I DIDNT GO TO THIS GAME.
kill me now.
Surviving Grady
Apparently, sometime after the rain delay of last night's game, Tito decided to give the lads a rest and replaced the entire team -- particularly the bullpen -- with robot doppelgangers. This was evident the moment the Sox headed off the field with only two outs in the bottom of the sixth; robots, despite their advanced computer brains, are notoriously bad at counting outs. And because robot players are also inherently lazy and nonchalant, within what seemed the blink of an eye, our comfy 10-1 lead became an 11-10 kick to the pills. So what should have been a chapter for the John Smoltz memory books became a first-night-in-prison hazing for our relief corps.
Over the Monster
Then, something disastrous happens; the opposing team forgot that they were supposed to lose this game, and the first team (our heroes) reminds us all that an entire bullpen can have an off-night. I'm not sure there's anymore I want to say about this game.
Extra Bases
Manny Delcarmen walked out of the Red Sox clubhouse right behind Justin Masterson, just after midnight, and placed his hand on Masterson’s left shoulder. “Unbelievable, dude,” Delcarmen said, and then they both walked silently down the tunnel toward the exit.
Boston Dirt Dogs
Papelblown!
Sox Blow the Biggest Lead in the History of Earth
Final: Baltimore 11, Boston 10
When Push Comes to Save, Papelbon Is No Mariano
But It Was Nice That He Got That Ceremonial Save on Monday
Markakis Cracks Two-Run Double Off Pap to Give Orioles the Improbable Win
Joy of Sox
Okay, so maybe watching last night's game was like passing a kidney stone ...Earl Weaver once said, "This ain't football, we do this every day." And so last night becomes a distant memory -- and lo: A new day and a new game.(Still, if everyone in the bullpen was going to have a shitty outing, it was awfully nice of them to do it all in the same game.)
Red Sox Monster
So there we all were, watching the Red Sox cruise along in the sixth inning with a 10-1 lead against the worst team in the American League East.
And then what happens? A cherry bomb goes off in our hands, that's what....
...it's not every day that a team is historically bad, which the Red Sox qualified for tonight by allowing the biggest comeback win in Baltimore Orioles history.
Comments on the game thread from Sons of Sam Horn:
It's weird, it's the same thing for me. This is a totally ridiculous loss and I'm sure that it'll bother me later, but right now, I'm more amazed than anything.
Embarassing. I haven't seen a little water cause somebody to melt this badly since Margaret Hamilton.
what a nightmare
One of the worst losses I've ever seen. Brutal.
That's the worst loss of the season - hands down - absolutely disgusting and unnecessary. What a choke!
Markakis is 0-7 vs Paps w/ 4 Ks. (1 minute later) Wow. I mean, I am SOOOOOOOOOOOOO GLAD I DIDNT GO TO THIS GAME.
kill me now.
Baltimore 11, Boston 10
I stayed up watching the Pirates vs. Cubs and the Twins vs. Royals waiting for the rain delay to be over but having the day job and being worn out from a post-work hike, I had to surrender to sleep.
And now this.
Honestly, I have no idea what to say. The play by play is insane. Oscar Salazar singles to the catcher?
God bless MLBTV. I'm going to have to go back and watch the rest of the game before I comment. I'm just in shock...
And now this.
Honestly, I have no idea what to say. The play by play is insane. Oscar Salazar singles to the catcher?
God bless MLBTV. I'm going to have to go back and watch the rest of the game before I comment. I'm just in shock...
Monday, March 16, 2009
How Baltimore Can Win the East '09: The Case Against the Red Sox
1. J.D. Drew is Old
OK, he's only 33 but he's an old 33. He played well when he was actually on the field in '08 but he only played in 109 games. Inury-prone throughout his career, back problems during Spring Training are not a good sign. It's being downplayed but getting nerve blocking drugs shot in to your back is hardly normal treatment for a sore back. But don't worry, Rocco Baldelli is the picture of health, right?
2. Jason Varitek is Even Older
I'm not even going into this one. It's just so obvious. Varitek is a useless player with the bat and the glove at this point. His signing was a charity case and he will have to be carried by the rest of the team all season.
3. No Manny
Despite all the headlines reporting otherwise, Manny actually was a really good hitter for the Sox last year (yes, even when he was supposedly slacking off). The acquisition of Jason Bay was a good move fiscally but Bay will not be the player Manny was and is in 2009. Manny is a virtual lock to OPS north of .900 while Bay would be quite fortunate to do so. Furthermore, Bay is a butcher in leftfield. He is not as bad as Manny but he is Adam Dunn bad.
The bottom line is that the value contributed by the Sox leftfield will be greatly diminished.
4. The Rotation
Jon Lester is a legitimate ace and should be able to duplicate last season's success. But the others...
OK, he's only 33 but he's an old 33. He played well when he was actually on the field in '08 but he only played in 109 games. Inury-prone throughout his career, back problems during Spring Training are not a good sign. It's being downplayed but getting nerve blocking drugs shot in to your back is hardly normal treatment for a sore back. But don't worry, Rocco Baldelli is the picture of health, right?
2. Jason Varitek is Even Older
I'm not even going into this one. It's just so obvious. Varitek is a useless player with the bat and the glove at this point. His signing was a charity case and he will have to be carried by the rest of the team all season.
3. No Manny
Despite all the headlines reporting otherwise, Manny actually was a really good hitter for the Sox last year (yes, even when he was supposedly slacking off). The acquisition of Jason Bay was a good move fiscally but Bay will not be the player Manny was and is in 2009. Manny is a virtual lock to OPS north of .900 while Bay would be quite fortunate to do so. Furthermore, Bay is a butcher in leftfield. He is not as bad as Manny but he is Adam Dunn bad.
The bottom line is that the value contributed by the Sox leftfield will be greatly diminished.
4. The Rotation
Jon Lester is a legitimate ace and should be able to duplicate last season's success. But the others...
Dice-K was extraordinarily lucky last season. His FIP was 4.11 last season, a difference of 1.21 from his actual ERA.
Josh Beckett gave up line drives at a 25% rate last season. Tim Wakefield is 42 years old. Who's the fifth starter? Clay Bucholz whose career highlight is no-hitting the Orioles? Brad Penny, an oft-injured, lazy National League reject?
Thin...the rotation is thin.
5. The Recovery of Lowell and Ortiz
David Ortiz is 33 and has a body type that does not age well. Can he really be counted on to return to 35 HR power again?
Ditto for Mike Lowell except that he will be 35. Can he still play third base? Will he ever hit better than league average again?
Wrist injuries and hip injuries, respectively, are hardly small matters for aging players.
Conclusion
Honestly, the Red Sox are probably the best equipped team to win the AL East in 2009. Their infield defense should be stellar, the bullpen should be top-notch and the offense should be above average barring injury. But they are hardly a juggernaut.
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Markakis Locked Up and Bierd Traded to Sox
The Orioles have reportedly locked up RF Nick Markakis with a 6-year, $66 million deal.
This is welcome news and a (relatively) long time coming. Markakis is overlooked outside of Baltimore but is legitimately one of the best young ballplayers in the majors. For 2008, OPS+ leaders for players under 25:
He's an elite talent, with the bat and the glove, and now he's an Oriole through 2014, his age 31 season.
FanGraphs.com values Markakis' 2008 performance at $24.3 million but even by current values in the marketplace, $11 million per season is a bargain for Markakis. In a market that pays Raul Ibanez $10.5 million per season, the Orioles saved themselves a lot of headaches later on. Especially since Nick Markakis is due for a breakout season in 2009.
In other news, RP Randor Bierd was traded to the Boston Red Sox for SP David Pauley.
Randor, we hardly knew ye. The Orioles acquired Bierd from the Detroit Tigers in last year's Rule 5 draft and he made quite a splash in April by pitching 13.1 innings at a 2.03 ERA. But he hurt his shoulder, didn't return to action until late July and wasn't the same after that. I would not be shocked if he straightens himself out but with a glut on minor league righthanded relievers, The Warehouse viewed him as expendable.
David Pauley is likely cannon fodder for the 2009 rotation, perhaps a long reliever. Pauley did manage to post a 4.52 FIP is a couple cups of coffee with the Sox but seems to be similar to the recently departed Garrett Olson; a soft-tossing finesse guy who may turn out to be a AAAA pitcher.
But as I've said before, the slogan for the 2009 Oriole rotation will be "We'll Take Anybody"...
This is welcome news and a (relatively) long time coming. Markakis is overlooked outside of Baltimore but is legitimately one of the best young ballplayers in the majors. For 2008, OPS+ leaders for players under 25:
OPS+
C. Quentin 148
H. Ramirez 146
D. Wright 141
J. Mauer 137
N. Markakis 134
B. Mcann 134
M. Cabrera 130
G. Sizemore 128
P. Fielder 128
R. Braun 128
He's an elite talent, with the bat and the glove, and now he's an Oriole through 2014, his age 31 season.
FanGraphs.com values Markakis' 2008 performance at $24.3 million but even by current values in the marketplace, $11 million per season is a bargain for Markakis. In a market that pays Raul Ibanez $10.5 million per season, the Orioles saved themselves a lot of headaches later on. Especially since Nick Markakis is due for a breakout season in 2009.
In other news, RP Randor Bierd was traded to the Boston Red Sox for SP David Pauley.
Randor, we hardly knew ye. The Orioles acquired Bierd from the Detroit Tigers in last year's Rule 5 draft and he made quite a splash in April by pitching 13.1 innings at a 2.03 ERA. But he hurt his shoulder, didn't return to action until late July and wasn't the same after that. I would not be shocked if he straightens himself out but with a glut on minor league righthanded relievers, The Warehouse viewed him as expendable.
David Pauley is likely cannon fodder for the 2009 rotation, perhaps a long reliever. Pauley did manage to post a 4.52 FIP is a couple cups of coffee with the Sox but seems to be similar to the recently departed Garrett Olson; a soft-tossing finesse guy who may turn out to be a AAAA pitcher.
But as I've said before, the slogan for the 2009 Oriole rotation will be "We'll Take Anybody"...
Monday, July 21, 2008
Pre-Season Thoughts in Review: Boston Red Sox
Another look back on my thoughts about our AL East opponents. Finally, the Red Sox
1. Schilling Hurts More Than They Want To Admit
I was pretty much wrong on this one. Beckett has pitched well, if not like a Cy Young candidate. Jon Lester has taken a big step forward at age 24. Dice K has been dominant and Tim Wakefield is having one of his best years ever. The only letdown has been Clay Buchholz.
Add all this to the good bullpen performance, they have the staff to contend. They are not really missing Schilling at all…
2. Mike Lowell Falls to Earth
Yeah, this was easy. He obviously wasn’t going to hit .324 again but he’s still having a pretty good season. He didn’t fall far enough to hurt…
3. Some Guys Are Just Plain Getting Old
After a couple of down seasons, Jason Varitek has finally fallen off the table. David Ortiz is banged up. Manny Ramirez has seen a small drop-off but he’s still damn good. A mixed bag on this one but the kids have picked up all the slack.
4. The Ellsbury Enigma
Is Jacoby Ellsbury going to hit .350 and slug .500 this season? Hell no! I would expect something in the range of .290 while slugging something closer to .425 or so.
Ellbury has not even lived up the the reduced expectations I had for him. The pluses are that he has already stolen 35 bases and his defense in center has been better than previously advertised.
He does enough but is only posting an 82 OPS+…exactly the same as the much-maligned Coco Crisp.
5. Will Lugo and Drew bounceback?
Lugo has not. Drew has.
I was hoping against hope that Drew would follow the Kirk Gibson career trajectory and start to breakdown in his early 30’s but history shows that Drew has a good year every other season.
Conclusion
Many of the problems I highlighted have come to fruition but not to the extent I thought. And when they did, the weaknesses have been masked by unexpected success in other areas.
They are a flawed team but they are the best equipped to win the AL East at this point.
1. Schilling Hurts More Than They Want To Admit
I was pretty much wrong on this one. Beckett has pitched well, if not like a Cy Young candidate. Jon Lester has taken a big step forward at age 24. Dice K has been dominant and Tim Wakefield is having one of his best years ever. The only letdown has been Clay Buchholz.
Add all this to the good bullpen performance, they have the staff to contend. They are not really missing Schilling at all…
2. Mike Lowell Falls to Earth
Yeah, this was easy. He obviously wasn’t going to hit .324 again but he’s still having a pretty good season. He didn’t fall far enough to hurt…
3. Some Guys Are Just Plain Getting Old
After a couple of down seasons, Jason Varitek has finally fallen off the table. David Ortiz is banged up. Manny Ramirez has seen a small drop-off but he’s still damn good. A mixed bag on this one but the kids have picked up all the slack.
4. The Ellsbury Enigma
Is Jacoby Ellsbury going to hit .350 and slug .500 this season? Hell no! I would expect something in the range of .290 while slugging something closer to .425 or so.
Ellbury has not even lived up the the reduced expectations I had for him. The pluses are that he has already stolen 35 bases and his defense in center has been better than previously advertised.
He does enough but is only posting an 82 OPS+…exactly the same as the much-maligned Coco Crisp.
5. Will Lugo and Drew bounceback?
Lugo has not. Drew has.
I was hoping against hope that Drew would follow the Kirk Gibson career trajectory and start to breakdown in his early 30’s but history shows that Drew has a good year every other season.
Conclusion
Many of the problems I highlighted have come to fruition but not to the extent I thought. And when they did, the weaknesses have been masked by unexpected success in other areas.
They are a flawed team but they are the best equipped to win the AL East at this point.
Friday, May 30, 2008
Base Hits: 5/30/2008
Red Sox come to town tonight! Oriole record at Camden Yards: 16-8 Red Sox record away from Fenway: 11-19. So you're tellin' me there's a chance... I'm going out on a limb here and saying that the starting pitching matchups actually favor the Orioles. We'll see if that turns out to be the case...
*****
I kept meaning to get over to Camden Depot and check out what they had to offer so I finally did. What Crawdaddy and stotle are writing over there is excellent. It's so good they make me want to quit blogging! Just for example, check out their continuing coverage of the upcoming amateur baseball draft from the Oriole's perspective. They are good men. And thorough.
*****
A portion of I-395 will now be known as "Ripken Way". There's an obvious joke here somewhere about "The Ripken Way" but I'll be damned if I can think of one...
*****
A post over at Firebrand of the American League (Red Sox blog) that discusses Boston's woes on the road but throws in this little jab: The Red Sox have a chance this weekend against a floundering Baltimore Orioles team to make a statement and move that road record three games closer to .500. Floundering? The O's are 7-7 over the last two weeks. We just won a series! More than the Red Sox can say. Granted, Baltimore is 2-4 over their last 6 but the Red Sox are 1-5! And we're floundering? OK, OK, I have a statement... The Orioles have a chance this weekend against the uber-floundering Boston Red Sox to move that home record 4 more games over .500. (That dude even got the number of games in this series wrong...) And when I say floundering, I mean really floundering. They make actual flounders appear to walk upright by comparison.
*****
For the Song of the Week, I was going to go really country this week but I stumbled across another band from Austin, TX that is clearly not country at all. This is Ghostland Observatory with "Sad Sad City" GO O's! BEAT THEM SOX!
*****
I kept meaning to get over to Camden Depot and check out what they had to offer so I finally did. What Crawdaddy and stotle are writing over there is excellent. It's so good they make me want to quit blogging! Just for example, check out their continuing coverage of the upcoming amateur baseball draft from the Oriole's perspective. They are good men. And thorough.
*****
A portion of I-395 will now be known as "Ripken Way". There's an obvious joke here somewhere about "The Ripken Way" but I'll be damned if I can think of one...
*****
A post over at Firebrand of the American League (Red Sox blog) that discusses Boston's woes on the road but throws in this little jab: The Red Sox have a chance this weekend against a floundering Baltimore Orioles team to make a statement and move that road record three games closer to .500. Floundering? The O's are 7-7 over the last two weeks. We just won a series! More than the Red Sox can say. Granted, Baltimore is 2-4 over their last 6 but the Red Sox are 1-5! And we're floundering? OK, OK, I have a statement... The Orioles have a chance this weekend against the uber-floundering Boston Red Sox to move that home record 4 more games over .500. (That dude even got the number of games in this series wrong...) And when I say floundering, I mean really floundering. They make actual flounders appear to walk upright by comparison.
*****
For the Song of the Week, I was going to go really country this week but I stumbled across another band from Austin, TX that is clearly not country at all. This is Ghostland Observatory with "Sad Sad City" GO O's! BEAT THEM SOX!
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
Sticking My Head In To Say Hi...
...since I haven't posted anything of substance in two and a half days. Been too busy trying to learn MySQL and some rudimentary Dutch (don't ask) to form much significant Orioles thought.
Until today.
Inspired by the O's mini-sweep of the Boston Red Sox, I had to pen an open letter to substitute Red Sox manager, Brad Mills.
Dear Brad,
Just a little note to thank you for giving us the opportunity to take these last two games from you. You don't know what wins like these mean to a struggling franchise like the the Baltimore Orioles and your generosity is greatly appreciated.
Really, beating Josh Beckett would have been enough for us. Victories over one of baseball's top pitchers just aren't expected and we were thankful enough to see the team catch him on one of the rare days when he was quite hittable.
But today was just too much. You shouldn't have! With the bases loaded, the Orioles were trailing 3-2 in the 7th with two outs. Jay Payton was at the plate and, well, let's just say that Birdland was less than optimistic that a guy hitting .220 would end up the hero.
But Brad, you had pity on us. You took out righty Craig Hansen and brought in lefty Hideki Okijima. At his advanced age, Jay Payton can only do two things; play a passable defensive leftfield and mash lefthanded pitchers. Here's the splits for Payton...as if you didn't know!
Those aren't Ruthian numbers against lefties but at least it gave us a fighting chance. Dave Trembley couldn't have planned it better himself...even if he actually had bench players to use.
Again, thanks for handing over the sweep on a silver platter today. We know Terry Francona wouldn't have been nearly as generous.
Your Friends,
The Oriole Faithful
*****
Daniel Cabrera - mentally tough.
Until today.
Inspired by the O's mini-sweep of the Boston Red Sox, I had to pen an open letter to substitute Red Sox manager, Brad Mills.
Dear Brad,
Just a little note to thank you for giving us the opportunity to take these last two games from you. You don't know what wins like these mean to a struggling franchise like the the Baltimore Orioles and your generosity is greatly appreciated.
Really, beating Josh Beckett would have been enough for us. Victories over one of baseball's top pitchers just aren't expected and we were thankful enough to see the team catch him on one of the rare days when he was quite hittable.
But today was just too much. You shouldn't have! With the bases loaded, the Orioles were trailing 3-2 in the 7th with two outs. Jay Payton was at the plate and, well, let's just say that Birdland was less than optimistic that a guy hitting .220 would end up the hero.
But Brad, you had pity on us. You took out righty Craig Hansen and brought in lefty Hideki Okijima. At his advanced age, Jay Payton can only do two things; play a passable defensive leftfield and mash lefthanded pitchers. Here's the splits for Payton...as if you didn't know!
vs. RHP vs. LHP
Payton 2008 .216/.259/.216 .250/.250/.542
Those aren't Ruthian numbers against lefties but at least it gave us a fighting chance. Dave Trembley couldn't have planned it better himself...even if he actually had bench players to use.
Again, thanks for handing over the sweep on a silver platter today. We know Terry Francona wouldn't have been nearly as generous.
Your Friends,
The Oriole Faithful
*****
Daniel Cabrera - mentally tough.
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
How Baltimore Can Win The East '08: The Case Against The Red Sox
It's kind of tough to tear down a team that just won the World Series twice in the last four seasons but I'll do my best...1. Schilling Hurts More Than They Want To Admit
Yes, he is going to be 41 at the beginning of the season but the loss of Curt Schilling from that rotation is going to hurt. Schilling had the second best ERA among Red Sox starters behind staff ace Josh Beckett and his loss leaves the rotation looking a bit thin. You don't believe me?
Dice K had a Mussina-esque 5.19 ERA after the All-Star break. Either he wore down or hitters started catching up with him. Or both.
Wakefield is a fine back of the rotation guy but is also getting old. He battled back problems last year and posted his worst ERA since 2004.
The loss of Schilling also puts a heavier load on young hurlers John Lester and Clay Bucholz. Guess how many starts these guys made last year? Only 14 combined. (Lester had 11, Clay only 3) They might turn out to be fine pitchers but you're asking largely unproven kids to provide at least 25 starts each on a contending team. Not really sure that's a great idea. It's no wonder the Sox signed Bartolo Colon. They're desperate for help.
2. Mike Lowell Falls to Earth
Like Jorge Posada, Mike Lowell had a career year while in his mid-30's. Do you think a guy with a .280 career batting average is going to hit .324 again? No way. He'll probably hit in the .280 range and hit 20 homers but he is not going to be powering the Sox offense the way he did last year.
3. Some Guys Are Just Plain Getting Old
Jason Varitek will continue to decline this season as he has for the past two. He'll be 36 this year and barring a big fluke will be lucky just to be average at the plate.
Manny Ramirez is one of the greatest hitters of this generation but he has never been one known for really taking care of himself. 2007 may have been the beginning of his decline years as he went from a feared hitter to being a good but ordinary slugger. This may sound crazy to say but it could be that Manny's days of clubbing 30+ homeruns are behind him.
4. The Ellsbury Enigma
Is Jacoby Ellsbury going to hit .350 and slug .500 this season? Hell no! I would expect something in the range of .290 while slugging something closer to .425 or so. Is that bad? Not at all. Is it significantly better than what you might get from Coco Crisp? Not really.
But this is what the Red Sox are facing. If Crisp doesn't win the starter's job in centerfield, he wants out of Boston. Do the Sox, World Series champs and 2008 contenders hand the job to a rookie and let the veteran go?
The Sox have to hope that Ellsbury delivers enough extra offense to offset Crisp's superior defense. Crisp has been one of the best in the AL during his career while Ellsbury really is not known for defense.
Either way, they will not be as strong in center ad they were last year.
5. Will Lugo and Drew bounceback?
Not only did Julio Lugo forget how to hit once he arrived at Fenway, his defense regressed as well. Did the big city pressure and contract mess with his head? The curse of Nomar? Whatever the case, look for Lugo to hit below .260 again. Maybe his fielding rebounds, maybe it doesn't.
History tells us that J.D. Drew should have a rebound of sorts this season. He tends to have a good season every other year and although he avoided major injury in 2007, you can't say that the Sox weren't disappointed by his paltry power numbers (.423 SLG and 11 homeruns, both career lows.) The fragile Drew will be 32 this season and may be breaking down early. Ironically, his career compares pretty favorably to Kirk Gibson (excepting Kirk Gibson prowess at steals). Guess at what age Gibson's body began to truly fail on him? That's right, age 32.
Conclusion
Let's be honest. The Red Sox have a lot of strengths. Their bullpen is outstanding, David Ortiz is still a fearsome slugger in his prime and they have the best young second baseman in the AL not named Cano.
However, age and injuries may catch up with them this year, as well as some unproven players in crucial roles in the rotation and in center.
They aren't going to run away and hide with the AL East title this year...
Next Up: The Case FOR Baltimore
Friday, May 11, 2007
O's Complete The Sweep
I don't care if it is the Devil Rays, any sweep over an opponent in the AL East is a big deal. The O's have won 5 of 7 as they head to Boston for a weekend series.
The bats have been waking up just in time. Corey Patterson is now hitting .286 for the the month after a slow start in April. And don't look now but Jay Gibbons is hitting .294 and OPSing a fat .929 in his limited playing time in May. I know Jay's bitter about lack of playing time but hopefully he learns that he's part of a three or four man rotation in the LF/DH role. He can still be very valuable playing 125 games for is this year. Aubrey Huff is crushing the ball since May Day as well, at a .361 clip while OPSing .895. If this kind of production keeps up, Baltimore will be able to play with anybody.
Look at the matchups for this weekend in Boston:
Burres vs. Tavarez
Trachsel vs. Schilling
Guthrie vs. Beckett
Yikes. The Burres/Tavarez matchup really isn't bad, only Burres' being green makes it iffy. Really, tonight is the game we need to get, the other two are uphill battles before they throw the first pitch.
Has anybody seen Freddie Bynum? He appears to be missing but is still taking up a spot on the roster...
The bats have been waking up just in time. Corey Patterson is now hitting .286 for the the month after a slow start in April. And don't look now but Jay Gibbons is hitting .294 and OPSing a fat .929 in his limited playing time in May. I know Jay's bitter about lack of playing time but hopefully he learns that he's part of a three or four man rotation in the LF/DH role. He can still be very valuable playing 125 games for is this year. Aubrey Huff is crushing the ball since May Day as well, at a .361 clip while OPSing .895. If this kind of production keeps up, Baltimore will be able to play with anybody.
Look at the matchups for this weekend in Boston:
Burres vs. Tavarez
Trachsel vs. Schilling
Guthrie vs. Beckett
Yikes. The Burres/Tavarez matchup really isn't bad, only Burres' being green makes it iffy. Really, tonight is the game we need to get, the other two are uphill battles before they throw the first pitch.
Has anybody seen Freddie Bynum? He appears to be missing but is still taking up a spot on the roster...
Friday, April 27, 2007
Sick in more ways than one...
I've been laid up for the last day and a half which gave me plenty of time to watch our two losses to the Red Sox.
The worst news is that if Schilling stays healthy and Beckett doesn't regress, the Sox will be tough to beat this year. They looked unbeatable against the O's and have looked that way against most of the league this year.
The good news is that Cabrera and Loewen both pitched well, they were just up against tougher competition. Cabrera was a bit wild and probably shouldn't have been sent out for the 7th inning when he really lost it. Loewen again was able to show mental toughness as he battled through six innings in which it all wasn't working for him.
Off to Cleveland. The O's will have trouble with Jeremy Sowers as they have had issues with just about any lefty starter the opposition has been able to put on the mound. Jake Westbrook and Francisco Carmona look like good candidates for the O's bats to wake up against.
The Cleveland lineup is one to be feared though and the Indians are on a 6 game win streak while the O's have lost 4 straight.
The worst news is that if Schilling stays healthy and Beckett doesn't regress, the Sox will be tough to beat this year. They looked unbeatable against the O's and have looked that way against most of the league this year.
The good news is that Cabrera and Loewen both pitched well, they were just up against tougher competition. Cabrera was a bit wild and probably shouldn't have been sent out for the 7th inning when he really lost it. Loewen again was able to show mental toughness as he battled through six innings in which it all wasn't working for him.
Off to Cleveland. The O's will have trouble with Jeremy Sowers as they have had issues with just about any lefty starter the opposition has been able to put on the mound. Jake Westbrook and Francisco Carmona look like good candidates for the O's bats to wake up against.
The Cleveland lineup is one to be feared though and the Indians are on a 6 game win streak while the O's have lost 4 straight.
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Around The Red Sox Blogosphere: Series Preview
I really don't have much to comment on from yesterday's game but there are two things I wanted to mention.
After watching Miguel Tejada and Chris Gomez work in simpatico over the weekend and watching Brian Roberts poor decision to throw to second yesterday, I have come to the conclusion that Brian Roberts is the middle infielder who's in a fielding slump. He needs to snap out of it.
Hats off to Jeremy Guthrie who pitched as well as could be expected for a spot starter. Thanks for the quality start Jeremy, it's far better than we would have gotten last year's bullpen.
Now for the Sawx:
Evan Brunell over at Fire Brand of the American League, says the Orioles have a pretty good club this year and highlights Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen but then has this to say as he looks forward to the fall:
"...we get to clean up against Baltimore and Tampa Bay in September for 12 of the 27 games in September, no small number."
Hey! The bully's kicking sand in our face! We'll just see who's beating up on who pal...
At Keep Your Sox On In Brooklyn, they seem to think Boston will take it's frustration from their games with Toronto out on the O's:
"This makes me want to punch something hard. Wait what is that? Another bird? A little orange fellow? So bright and colorful and full of life? Yeah....Orioles... prepare to meet your pane of completely transparent glass. Splat."
Bring it on boys. This team's not a pushover this year.
And at a blog called KC Bean Boy, this insight was given:
"Baltimore may be an interesting trip since it will be in question on which Orioles team shows up for work on Wednesday and Thursday and if Boston will be looking past the O’s and up I-95 for the rematch with the Yanks."
And much like the Red Sox players themselves, the bloggers of Red Sox Nation either deride the O's or overlook them completely to focus on the Yankees series coming up over the weekend.
Hey O's, let's give them something to consider for the next series, OK?
After watching Miguel Tejada and Chris Gomez work in simpatico over the weekend and watching Brian Roberts poor decision to throw to second yesterday, I have come to the conclusion that Brian Roberts is the middle infielder who's in a fielding slump. He needs to snap out of it.
Hats off to Jeremy Guthrie who pitched as well as could be expected for a spot starter. Thanks for the quality start Jeremy, it's far better than we would have gotten last year's bullpen.
Now for the Sawx:
Evan Brunell over at Fire Brand of the American League, says the Orioles have a pretty good club this year and highlights Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen but then has this to say as he looks forward to the fall:
"...we get to clean up against Baltimore and Tampa Bay in September for 12 of the 27 games in September, no small number."
Hey! The bully's kicking sand in our face! We'll just see who's beating up on who pal...
At Keep Your Sox On In Brooklyn, they seem to think Boston will take it's frustration from their games with Toronto out on the O's:
"This makes me want to punch something hard. Wait what is that? Another bird? A little orange fellow? So bright and colorful and full of life? Yeah....Orioles... prepare to meet your pane of completely transparent glass. Splat."
Bring it on boys. This team's not a pushover this year.
And at a blog called KC Bean Boy, this insight was given:
"Baltimore may be an interesting trip since it will be in question on which Orioles team shows up for work on Wednesday and Thursday and if Boston will be looking past the O’s and up I-95 for the rematch with the Yanks."
And much like the Red Sox players themselves, the bloggers of Red Sox Nation either deride the O's or overlook them completely to focus on the Yankees series coming up over the weekend.
Hey O's, let's give them something to consider for the next series, OK?
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
How Baltimore Can Win The East Part 2: The Case Against Boston
Part 2 in my continued fan-boy, wishful thinking column. Why do I sound so negative? Because I have to come up with five plausible reasons Boston may falter this year. Well, here it goes...
1. Catcher Will Be a Problem
Jason Varitek had a poor year at the plate and a rough year behind it as well last year. Varitek will be 35 this year and the mid-30's are when catchers traditionally tend to start breaking down. It happened to Mike Lieberthal, it happened to Sandy Alomar, Jr., it happened to Darrin Fletcher. I mention these guys in particular because these are some of the most similar batters to Varitek through their age 34 seasons. Doug Mirabelli is a very good backup but is not a viable option if Varitek gets hurt. Josh Bard is no longer on deck as he was shipped out to San Diego last year. The catching position looks to be an offensive black hole for the first time since 1995.
2. The Rotation Is A Question Mark
Even though he has never been a starter at the major league level, Jonathan Papelbon is probably the surest thing the Sox have in their rotation. Schilling? He's very, very old. There's no telling if he finally starts to show his age on the mound or if he suffers serious injury. Ditto for Tim Wakefield. Dice-K could be fantastic but he could also be Hideki Irabu once the team goes north. Nobody knows. Josh Beckett was knocked around on his first trip through the American League. He may have won 16 but he had an ERA of 5.01 and a whopping 36 homeruns! Assuming this will be a dominant rotation is a huge assumption at this point. It could be an Achilles heel.
3. The Infield Offense is Lackluster
We all know the heart of the order (Ramirez, Ortiz, Drew) should be formidable but what about the rest? The infield doesn't look like they will strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitching staffs. Mike Lowell is a defensive wiz and a solid performer at the plate but at this point in his career, 20 HR is the best you can expect and he was only slightly above league average as an offensive player last year. Julio Lugo's offense fell off the table once he was traded west to the Dodger last year and he battled injuries the first part of the year. A .270-ish hitter with 12 HR isn't going to scare you. Dustin Pedroia is being handed the job at second base even though he sports a .191 BA in his 89 at-bats in the majors. And while his all-around game is just fine, Kevin Youkilis has never developed the power he was supposed to. He hit only 13 homers in 569 at-bats last season. Like Lowell, above average offensively but not much. Only Peroida looks to be a real liability here but no one else listed could be described as anything more than "solid".
4. It An Odd-Numbered Year for J.D. Drew
Everyone familiar with J.D. Drew knows he has been injury-prone throughout his career. But did you know that there is a pattern? In even-numbered years, he averaged 140 games played. In odd-numbered years, he averages 96 games played. If J.D. Drew doesn't miss significant time this year, he will be breaking an 8 year pattern. J.D., buddy, you're due.
5. No One Knows Who Will Close
Certainly not the fans or the writers in Boston. There is no established closer in the pen, no one has stepped up to take the lead this spring and there are some nagging injuries among some of the more seasoned veterans. Closer-by-committee looks great on paper but the actual humans in the bullpen like to have established roles. Thus far, there are none. Huge weakness for the Sox at this point.
Conclusion
Lots would have to go wrong for this to be a losing team but there's plenty of stumbling blocks waiting for this team, enough that they could be a mediocrity. All Baltimore should be looking for is an open door and Boston doesn't look like they will slam the door on anybody this year.
Next Up: The Yankees
1. Catcher Will Be a Problem
Jason Varitek had a poor year at the plate and a rough year behind it as well last year. Varitek will be 35 this year and the mid-30's are when catchers traditionally tend to start breaking down. It happened to Mike Lieberthal, it happened to Sandy Alomar, Jr., it happened to Darrin Fletcher. I mention these guys in particular because these are some of the most similar batters to Varitek through their age 34 seasons. Doug Mirabelli is a very good backup but is not a viable option if Varitek gets hurt. Josh Bard is no longer on deck as he was shipped out to San Diego last year. The catching position looks to be an offensive black hole for the first time since 1995.
2. The Rotation Is A Question Mark
Even though he has never been a starter at the major league level, Jonathan Papelbon is probably the surest thing the Sox have in their rotation. Schilling? He's very, very old. There's no telling if he finally starts to show his age on the mound or if he suffers serious injury. Ditto for Tim Wakefield. Dice-K could be fantastic but he could also be Hideki Irabu once the team goes north. Nobody knows. Josh Beckett was knocked around on his first trip through the American League. He may have won 16 but he had an ERA of 5.01 and a whopping 36 homeruns! Assuming this will be a dominant rotation is a huge assumption at this point. It could be an Achilles heel.
3. The Infield Offense is Lackluster
We all know the heart of the order (Ramirez, Ortiz, Drew) should be formidable but what about the rest? The infield doesn't look like they will strike fear into the hearts of opposing pitching staffs. Mike Lowell is a defensive wiz and a solid performer at the plate but at this point in his career, 20 HR is the best you can expect and he was only slightly above league average as an offensive player last year. Julio Lugo's offense fell off the table once he was traded west to the Dodger last year and he battled injuries the first part of the year. A .270-ish hitter with 12 HR isn't going to scare you. Dustin Pedroia is being handed the job at second base even though he sports a .191 BA in his 89 at-bats in the majors. And while his all-around game is just fine, Kevin Youkilis has never developed the power he was supposed to. He hit only 13 homers in 569 at-bats last season. Like Lowell, above average offensively but not much. Only Peroida looks to be a real liability here but no one else listed could be described as anything more than "solid".
4. It An Odd-Numbered Year for J.D. Drew
Everyone familiar with J.D. Drew knows he has been injury-prone throughout his career. But did you know that there is a pattern? In even-numbered years, he averaged 140 games played. In odd-numbered years, he averages 96 games played. If J.D. Drew doesn't miss significant time this year, he will be breaking an 8 year pattern. J.D., buddy, you're due.
5. No One Knows Who Will Close
Certainly not the fans or the writers in Boston. There is no established closer in the pen, no one has stepped up to take the lead this spring and there are some nagging injuries among some of the more seasoned veterans. Closer-by-committee looks great on paper but the actual humans in the bullpen like to have established roles. Thus far, there are none. Huge weakness for the Sox at this point.
Conclusion
Lots would have to go wrong for this to be a losing team but there's plenty of stumbling blocks waiting for this team, enough that they could be a mediocrity. All Baltimore should be looking for is an open door and Boston doesn't look like they will slam the door on anybody this year.
Next Up: The Yankees
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