There are plenty of year end wrapups across the O's Blogosphere so instead of doing one myself, I'll just highlight the good works of others.
The very prolific Anthony Amobi has end of the year awards for the Baltimore Orioles over at Oriole Post.
At Oriole Magic, Heathir Irvin has an article meant as a Christmas wish list for O's fans but does a nice wrapup of the offseason action.
The best of the wrapups thus far has to be the blow-by-blow of 2007 by The Wayward Oriole.
The official 2007 retrospective by your Baltimore Orioles.
*****
I think Roch may have already posted a link to this but here is a link to the Top Ten Oriole Prospects according to TopProspectAlert.com.
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I had a horrible dream last night that Erik Bedard was traded to Seattle but Adam Jones was not included in the deal. But it was just a dream, a terrible, terrible dream.
*****
I'll give some love to a new blog called Swanz's Sandlot who did a nice impartial (he appears to be a fan neither team) breakdown of the Tejada to Houston deal.
*****
Well, that's all I got O's fans. Here's to a brighter 2008 season...
Monday, December 31, 2007
Friday, December 28, 2007
Base Hits: 12/28/2007
A self-righteous and sanctimonious guest column in The Baltimore Sun about the Mitchell Report and appropriate punishment for those implicated.
The author wishes for Major League Baseball to "rise to the occasion" to punish the cheaters:
It is not too late to send a clear message to the players who chose to cheat in order to get ahead: You are not welcome in our clubhouses, in our Hall of Fame or in our record books. Major League Baseball has the opportunity to restore the integrity of the game.
What Mr. Frenkil does not do is outline how to find out who the cheaters are. Does he really believe that the people named in the Mitchell Report are the only guilty parties? What about the players, including Roger Clemens, who claim the accusations are false? How does baseball decide who is telling the truth?
Mr. Frenkil also invokes the 1919 White Sox and the banishment of the cheaters like Kennesaw Mountain Landis did nearly 90 years ago. But where does it end?
I wonder if Mr. Frenkil is familiar with the case of Buck Weaver. Weaver is one of the infamous "eight men out" but was not banned from baseball because he cheated. He was banned because he had knowledge of the plot but did nothing to prevent it.
How many Buck Weavers were present during the Steroids Era? Dozens? Hundreds? There were players in the locker room who knew what was going on who did nothing. The union as a collective refused to allow the league to enact testing that would help alleviate the problem. Should all the players be held responsible? Where does baseball draw the line?
It's pretty clear cut when you stand up and moralize but once you start getting your hands dirty dealing out punishments gets messy indeed.
*****
On a sunnier note, I am adding a link to the Enchanting Sunshine blog's Oriole page. Lots of great pictures from years ago and from the present.
*****
Luis Hernandez, the heir apparent to Miguel Tejada at SS, stunk up the Venezuelan Winter League. Hernandez hit .216 and OPSed .551 for Tiburones de La Guaira. If that's the best he can do, he won't be in Baltimore long. Look for Brandon Fahey to make a strong run at the starting SS job this spring.
*****
Former Oriole LaTroy Hawkins returns to the Al East and signs a one year deal with the Yankees. Let the beatings commence.
The author wishes for Major League Baseball to "rise to the occasion" to punish the cheaters:
It is not too late to send a clear message to the players who chose to cheat in order to get ahead: You are not welcome in our clubhouses, in our Hall of Fame or in our record books. Major League Baseball has the opportunity to restore the integrity of the game.
What Mr. Frenkil does not do is outline how to find out who the cheaters are. Does he really believe that the people named in the Mitchell Report are the only guilty parties? What about the players, including Roger Clemens, who claim the accusations are false? How does baseball decide who is telling the truth?
Mr. Frenkil also invokes the 1919 White Sox and the banishment of the cheaters like Kennesaw Mountain Landis did nearly 90 years ago. But where does it end?
I wonder if Mr. Frenkil is familiar with the case of Buck Weaver. Weaver is one of the infamous "eight men out" but was not banned from baseball because he cheated. He was banned because he had knowledge of the plot but did nothing to prevent it.
How many Buck Weavers were present during the Steroids Era? Dozens? Hundreds? There were players in the locker room who knew what was going on who did nothing. The union as a collective refused to allow the league to enact testing that would help alleviate the problem. Should all the players be held responsible? Where does baseball draw the line?
It's pretty clear cut when you stand up and moralize but once you start getting your hands dirty dealing out punishments gets messy indeed.
*****
On a sunnier note, I am adding a link to the Enchanting Sunshine blog's Oriole page. Lots of great pictures from years ago and from the present.
*****
Luis Hernandez, the heir apparent to Miguel Tejada at SS, stunk up the Venezuelan Winter League. Hernandez hit .216 and OPSed .551 for Tiburones de La Guaira. If that's the best he can do, he won't be in Baltimore long. Look for Brandon Fahey to make a strong run at the starting SS job this spring.
*****
Former Oriole LaTroy Hawkins returns to the Al East and signs a one year deal with the Yankees. Let the beatings commence.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
The Crystal Ball '08: Nick Markakis
With all the flux and uncertainty with the Oriole roster this offseason it has been difficult to start any posts examining player performance for 2008. However, I think the safest bet is that Nick Markakis will still be patrolling right field in Camden Yards come April.
First, I present a thing of exquisite beauty. Ladies and gentlemen, Nick Markakis' 2007 hit chart for Oriole Park:
That's what I call hitting to all fields. I am moved. Allow me to shed a tear...(sniff)
What should we expect this year from Markakis? Last year I had hoped that he would slug .500 but he fell just short at .485. Still, hitting .300 with 23 HR and 43 doubles at the age of 23 is nothing to sneeze at.
You should always know your history and I couldn't imagine there would be too many players who posted those kind of numbers at 23. So I searched for all 23 year olds in Major League history who hit at least .290 with at least 40 doubles and 20 homers. The result? Only 16 other players have done it. Unfortunately, Nick is the only one of those players with under .500 SLG. The list includes names like Albert Pujols, Hank Greenberg and Aramis Ramirez. Markakis is never going to be a huge slugger like some of the guys on this list. His power is more line drive type power, which is good, but he's never going to be a guy who routinely hit 35 homers a year. Plus, he's faster than most of the guys on this list.
So I changed the criteria. Must hit .290 with 35 doubles with slugging not to exceed .515 nor be less than .475. Got it? Good.
This list yielded 13 names (including Cal Ripken, Jr.) but I thinned the herd further by including only outfielders. Of the four names left, Markakis compares most favorably to two players:
Hitter Year BA 2B HR OBP SLG OPS OPS+
Enos Slaughter 1939 .320 52 12 .371 .482 .853 122
Ellis Burks 1988 .294 37 25 .367 .481 .848 131
Not too shabby a comparison. Slaughter is a Hall of Famer and Burks was an All-Star caliber player for many years.
So based on Marakis' 2007 stats and projecting them using Burks' and Slaughter's age 24 seasons, here's my guess for Nick's batting line for 2008:
Hitter Year BA 2B HR OBP SLG OPS
Nick Markakis 2008 .309 39 27 .365 .502 .867
I'll take those numbers any day.
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
O's to Dodger Town...Again?
Holy crap. In looking up the latest news about the Orioles home in Ft. Lauderdale and a potential move to Vero Beach, I noticed that I have been blogging about the Baltimore Orioles for exactly one year today. And my first post was regarding the Orioles Spring Training facility in Ft. Lauderdale. Well, it was interesting to me anyway... (See that previous post for a more complete assessment of the Oriole's Spring Training facility)
As that original post highlighted, the club had reached an agreement to stay in Ft. Lauderdale and improve the existing facility. Now, bureaucratic slowdowns have Baltimore eyeing Vero Beach once again.
I have stated this before but I must reiterate that the facility in Ft. Lauderdale is beyond crappy. On top of that, it reeks of Yankee. The Yankees used the facility before 1996 and Angelos and company haven't even given the place a fresh coat of paint in over 10 years. Observe the background of this picture:
As that original post highlighted, the club had reached an agreement to stay in Ft. Lauderdale and improve the existing facility. Now, bureaucratic slowdowns have Baltimore eyeing Vero Beach once again.
I have stated this before but I must reiterate that the facility in Ft. Lauderdale is beyond crappy. On top of that, it reeks of Yankee. The Yankees used the facility before 1996 and Angelos and company haven't even given the place a fresh coat of paint in over 10 years. Observe the background of this picture:
Note the Yankee colors still present on the outside of the stadium. The interior (including the seats) are still done in Yankee colors. There is still a Yankees plaque next to the box office! Outrage!
Dodger Town, on the other hand, is beautiful. All you would need is a fresh coat of orange and black and it's ready to go. I hope, I hope. I hope that the O's move north to Vero Beach. It's a great facility and will save me about an hour and a half on the road the next time I go down.
Baltimore Orioles on HitTrackerOnline.com
A little fun with numbers during this lull in the Hot Stove action. Greg Ryabrcyk runs HitTrackerOnline.com and is obsessed with homeruns. As a result, he has developed various tools to determine how far homers actually fly, how atmospherics affect homeruns and who benefits from good or bad atmospheric conditions. I ran some reports on the Orioles to see if there was anything interesting (and I really have nothing better to do).
Now a look at the top homerun distances, standardized. Greg standardizes all homeruns as if they were hit on a clear 70 degree day and fell unobstructed to field level.
Not too surprising that Tejada has the top two blasts on this list, he still possessed the best raw power on the team even if he doesn't display it on a regular basis. I never realized this before looking at these homerun numbers but Tejada hit 10 of his 18 homers in the month of August. I'm not sure how that escaped me before and I can't think of any player who has hit 10 homers in a month that didn't hit 20 total.
Next, a look at the top homeruns measured by speed off the bat (SOB) in mph.
You can see how the ball just jumps off the bat for Nick Markakis and this comes as no surprise. The Hit Tracker also give an elevation angle on each homer and Nick's homers tend to be hit at an angle less than 35 degrees where most homers for a typical slugger get lofted out at an angle of 35-45 degrees. This shows Markakis' line drive power and also explains why he hits 43 doubles in addition to the 23 homers.
Here's the "No Doubt" homers which Hit Tracker defines as ball that clear the fence by 20 vertical feet and land 50 feet past the fence.
Frustrating numbers here as you can see the power Huff possesses but is very inconsistent with. Same with Gibbons who only hit 7 HR in 2007 but 3 were killer shots.
On the flip side, here's the "Just Enough" homers. These clear the wall by less than 10 feet and barely leave the park.
Markakis is not a real shock here due to the line drive nature of his power. Ditto for Roberts.
"Lucky Homers" are balls that would not have left the park on a calm, 70 degree day.
As we have seen the declining power of Mora over the past three seasons, it is interesting that nearly a third of his homers last year were the result of favorable weather conditions. What happens if he's not so lucky next year?
Next time we'll take a look at how the O's pitchers fared in terms of the longball.
Hitter HR
Markakis 23
Tejada 18
Millar 17
Huff 15
Mora 14
Now a look at the top homerun distances, standardized. Greg standardizes all homeruns as if they were hit on a clear 70 degree day and fell unobstructed to field level.
Hitter Date Std Dist
Tejada 4/2/07 428
Tejada 8/21/07 425
Millar 5/16/07 425
Hernandez 9/29/07 421
Markakis 5/14/07 415
Not too surprising that Tejada has the top two blasts on this list, he still possessed the best raw power on the team even if he doesn't display it on a regular basis. I never realized this before looking at these homerun numbers but Tejada hit 10 of his 18 homers in the month of August. I'm not sure how that escaped me before and I can't think of any player who has hit 10 homers in a month that didn't hit 20 total.
Next, a look at the top homeruns measured by speed off the bat (SOB) in mph.
Hitter Date SOB
Tejada 4/2/07 113.8
Markakis 8/28/07 113.6
Markakis 9/24/07 113.5
Millar 5/16/07 113.3
Mora 4/7/07 113.2
You can see how the ball just jumps off the bat for Nick Markakis and this comes as no surprise. The Hit Tracker also give an elevation angle on each homer and Nick's homers tend to be hit at an angle less than 35 degrees where most homers for a typical slugger get lofted out at an angle of 35-45 degrees. This shows Markakis' line drive power and also explains why he hits 43 doubles in addition to the 23 homers.
Here's the "No Doubt" homers which Hit Tracker defines as ball that clear the fence by 20 vertical feet and land 50 feet past the fence.
Hitter HR
Huff 3
Gibbons 3
Mora 2
Tejada 2
Hernandez 1
Frustrating numbers here as you can see the power Huff possesses but is very inconsistent with. Same with Gibbons who only hit 7 HR in 2007 but 3 were killer shots.
On the flip side, here's the "Just Enough" homers. These clear the wall by less than 10 feet and barely leave the park.
Hitter HR
Markakis 10
Roberts 8
Mora 5
Tejada 4
Hernandez 3
Markakis is not a real shock here due to the line drive nature of his power. Ditto for Roberts.
"Lucky Homers" are balls that would not have left the park on a calm, 70 degree day.
Hitter HR
Mora 4
Roberts 4
Markakis 3
Millar 2
Patterson 2
As we have seen the declining power of Mora over the past three seasons, it is interesting that nearly a third of his homers last year were the result of favorable weather conditions. What happens if he's not so lucky next year?
Next time we'll take a look at how the O's pitchers fared in terms of the longball.
Monday, December 24, 2007
Base Hits: 12/24/2007
I have to apologize to Brian Roberts. I gave Roberts and his supporters a hard time when the Mitchell Report was released as everyone tried to explain away the flimsy evidence that was presented against him. I kept trumpeting the fact that Roberts was reportedly (according to the L.A. Times) named in the Jason Grimsley affidavit as well and that this was more than pure coincidence. Well, last week the affidavit was unsealed and the Times printed this retraction:
Baseball: A front-page article on Oct. 1, 2006, incorrectly reported that in a search warrant affidavit filed in May 2006 in federal court in Phoenix, an investigator alleged that pitcher Jason Grimsley named former teammates Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Brian Roberts and Jay Gibbons as players linked to performance-enhancing drugs. In the affidavit, which was unsealed Thursday, Grimsley did not name those players. The article also said Grimsley alleged that Miguel Tejada had used steroids. The only mention of Tejada in the affidavit was as part of a conversation with teammates about baseball's ban on amphetamines. The Times regrets the error.
Even though Brian has since admitted a dabbling in steroids once, it was unfair for me to characterize him the way I did based on an erroneous report. So I apologize for taking that report as fact.
*****
According to MLB Rumor Central on ESPN.com, the Brian Roberts to the Cubs and the Erik Bedard to the Mariners deals are not dead yet (at least as of Friday). Despite assertions to the contrary, I believe that Andy MacPhail will still be shopping Erik Bedard aggressively and I will be shocked if he is indeed the Opening Day starter for Baltimore in 2008. We shall see.
Baseball: A front-page article on Oct. 1, 2006, incorrectly reported that in a search warrant affidavit filed in May 2006 in federal court in Phoenix, an investigator alleged that pitcher Jason Grimsley named former teammates Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Brian Roberts and Jay Gibbons as players linked to performance-enhancing drugs. In the affidavit, which was unsealed Thursday, Grimsley did not name those players. The article also said Grimsley alleged that Miguel Tejada had used steroids. The only mention of Tejada in the affidavit was as part of a conversation with teammates about baseball's ban on amphetamines. The Times regrets the error.
Even though Brian has since admitted a dabbling in steroids once, it was unfair for me to characterize him the way I did based on an erroneous report. So I apologize for taking that report as fact.
*****
According to MLB Rumor Central on ESPN.com, the Brian Roberts to the Cubs and the Erik Bedard to the Mariners deals are not dead yet (at least as of Friday). Despite assertions to the contrary, I believe that Andy MacPhail will still be shopping Erik Bedard aggressively and I will be shocked if he is indeed the Opening Day starter for Baltimore in 2008. We shall see.
*****
Melvin Mora is squawking about moving to the outfield again. And I quote:
"I'm a third baseman. I won't play no left field [for the Orioles]. They traded [Miguel] Tejada for a left fielder," said Mora, referring to former Houston Astro Luke Scott. "Check my numbers. You can see where I play."
OK, let's check the numbers then.
Melvin Mora Homeruns 2007: 14 - 13th out of 14 AL 3B
Melvin Mora BA 2007: .274 - 8th out of 12 qualifying AL 3B
Melvin Mora OPS 2007: .759 - 8th out of 12 qualifying AL 3B
And even with the improvement in his fielding, Mora is still in the bottom third is just about every fielding metric you can reference.
However, if you put that production out in LF those are not bad numbers among AL LF. Thanks for being a team player Mel.
*****
It's merely a satire but I found this article about Kris and Anna Benson pretty funny.
Where Are They Now?: The 2002 Oriole Draftees
It's now been over 5 years since the 2002 draft and now it's time to check in to see...Where Are They Now!
1st Round - Adam Loewen - P - High School
It's early but so far this pick is right on schedule. The kid will be 24 next season and, if healthy, should be right there helping to anchor the rotation. Even while pitching through an injury early last season, Loewen performed well. So far, great pick.
2nd Round - Corey Shafer - C - High School
Shafer was quickly converted to an outfielder but hasn't distinguished himself in the minors, only rising as high as Class A Frederick. He did not play last year but I don't know whether that was due to injury or if he's been released. Not good either way.
3rd Round - Val Majewski - OF - Rutgers University
Majewski was on a fast track to the majors as of 2004 when he hit .307 with 15 homers at AA Bowie. Unfortunately, he tore the labrumin his left shoulder and missed all of 2005 due to injury. He has yet to regain his stroke and this season in Norfolk is probably his last chance to secure a future in this organization. So far, this is a push. there is no predicting injury.
4th Round - Tim Gilhooly - OF - University of the Pacific
Gilhooly never rose above low-A Aberdeen and last played in the organization in 2003 hitting .203 for his minor league career. Out of baseball.
5th Round - Hayden Penn - P - High School
Penn rocketed through the organization reaching Baltimore in only two years but still has yet to put it all together. He battled injury last season but has proven he can miss AAA bats. If healthy this year, he can restore his status in Norfolk and perhaps join the rotation in 2008. A push for now but good value for the 5th round.
1st Round - Adam Loewen - P - High School
It's early but so far this pick is right on schedule. The kid will be 24 next season and, if healthy, should be right there helping to anchor the rotation. Even while pitching through an injury early last season, Loewen performed well. So far, great pick.
2nd Round - Corey Shafer - C - High School
Shafer was quickly converted to an outfielder but hasn't distinguished himself in the minors, only rising as high as Class A Frederick. He did not play last year but I don't know whether that was due to injury or if he's been released. Not good either way.
3rd Round - Val Majewski - OF - Rutgers University
Majewski was on a fast track to the majors as of 2004 when he hit .307 with 15 homers at AA Bowie. Unfortunately, he tore the labrumin his left shoulder and missed all of 2005 due to injury. He has yet to regain his stroke and this season in Norfolk is probably his last chance to secure a future in this organization. So far, this is a push. there is no predicting injury.
4th Round - Tim Gilhooly - OF - University of the Pacific
Gilhooly never rose above low-A Aberdeen and last played in the organization in 2003 hitting .203 for his minor league career. Out of baseball.
5th Round - Hayden Penn - P - High School
Penn rocketed through the organization reaching Baltimore in only two years but still has yet to put it all together. He battled injury last season but has proven he can miss AAA bats. If healthy this year, he can restore his status in Norfolk and perhaps join the rotation in 2008. A push for now but good value for the 5th round.
6th Round - John Maine - P - UNC Charlotte
Maine was traded with Jorge Julio for Kris Benson prior to the 2006 season. Although he has enjoyed some modest success in New York, I have gone on record stating that it's all smoke and mirrors or more accurately all pitcher's park and stellar defense behind him. Anyway, I still think Maine may have projected as a serviceable long reliever for the O's and he was traded for a legitimate (if injured) major league pitcher. A good pick.
7th Round - Paul Henry - P - Ball State
Henry never had any success above low-A ball. Out of baseball.
8th Round - Ryan Hubele - C - Texas
Hubele spent most of the season at Bowie last year and may get a shot at holding a job in Norfolk this season. But at 27 with a career batting average of .248 in the minors, it is unlikely that Hubele will ever be a decent backup catcher in the majors.
9th Round - Trevor Caughey - P - High School
Caughey posted a 4.62 ERA over 5 seasons in the low minors. Out of baseball.
10th Round - Matt Boland - P - High School
Boland never made it out of the Gulf Coast League. Out of baseball.
It's too soon to really do a good assessment of this draft but with Orioles drafts during the Angelos years there isn't even glimpses of hope left among the top picks. Adam Loewen and Hayden Penn are pretty good prospects and poised to help this team in the near future. 12th round pick Brandon Fahey may turn out to be a serviceable utility player at the major league level. Compared to most drafts I've examined over the last year, this one isn't half bad.
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