As much as I hate commenting on hypothetical moves, it seems I'm already arguing about them on Twitter. So now I will elaborate as to why I am not thrilled with the idea of Vladimir Guerrero coming to Baltimore next season.
1. Vlad Guererro isn't Vlad Guerrero Anymore
From 1996 to 2007, Vlad was a monster. He hit .325/.391/.591 with 365 home runs and an OPS+ of 148. However, for the last 3 seasons he has hit .300/.350/.496 with 71 homers and an OPS+ of 121. That's a good hitter but not a great one. In addition, he can no longer play the field anymore. So given that he is no longer a monster at the plate...
2. Vlad Won't Help This Team That Much
If I believed the Orioles were going to contend this year, loading up on veteran help would make a lot of sense and would be banging the drum loudly for this signing. But this team is not a contender. Not this year. I figured that if everything goes perfectly and Vlad repeats his performance from last year, he might be worth a couple extra wins. Dan at Camden Crazies broke it down some more and figures Vlad would only be worth one win, maybe. So will it make that big a difference if this team wins 73 games instead of 71 or 72? I don't see how. Besides...
3. We Already Have A DH Who Hits Like Vlad
Over the past three seasons, Vlad has an .845 OPS. Luke Scott also has an .845 OPS over that span. In addition, he can still play the outfield or first base making him a versatile and valuable player. But why couldn't the team move Scott back out to left field and let Vlad DH full time? Well they could but...
4. Vlad Robs Young Hitters of At Bats
Vlad's signing would push Scot to left field, Felix Pie to the bench and Nolan Reimold to Norfolk. And that's fine. But what if Reimold goes to AAA and starts tearing it up for a couple months like he did in 2009? Assuming health for all the OF/1B/DH's involved, there is nowhere for him to play. Or by some chance, Brandon Snyder puts it together and tears up the International League. Without Vlad, Snyder could come up and DH with Scott moving to left. Not possible with Vlad on the roster. Ditto for Josh Bell.
At this point, it's more important for Pie and Reimold to get the at bats so the team can see if they will be useful nuggets going forward and to have flexibility to call up hitters from Norfolk who are deserving of promotion.
This team isn't going to win or lose because of Vlad Guerrero. Its fortune ride on the offensive development of Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold and on the advances Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and (possibly) Zach Britton make on the mound. An aging DH isn't going to make or break this team. So leave him alone and let the guys who are a decade younger play ball.
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