I am often critical and dismissive of the bunt. I have the Earl Weaver quote on the front page of this blog for a reason. The bunt, by and large, is a give-up play and usually the payoff does not equal what it costs you.
I should clarify this stance though. And this article over at Beyond the Boxscore got me thinking about the one time I do like the bunt...when you're bunting for a hit.
As it turns out, the Orioles had two of the best players in the game when it came to bunting for hits: Adam Jones and Cesar Izturis.
Jones went 7 for 12 when bunting for hits (.583 hit percentage), leading all of baseball in bunt hit percentage and Izturis went 7 for 17 (.412 hit percentage), good for 10th. If you can drop bunts and get hits that often, you do it. Those guys can drop a bunt whenever they feel like it. (The article is really interesting, well worth reading all of it.)
However, Buck Showalter did show a tendency for using the bunt as a sacrifice play, more than I was comfortable with, to be honest. According to the 2011 Bill James Handbook, although the three Orioles managers were at the helm for about the same number of games, Showalter actually employed the sac bunt 13 times, more than Dave Trembley (10). But less than Juan Samuel (18).
These numbers are a bit higher from what Showalter has done in the past and perhaps with the additions of Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds and J.J. Hardy, Buck won't feel so inclined to try to manufacture runs. I'd like to think so.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Alfredo Simon Suspected of Murder
According to the AP, Oriole reliever Alfredo Simon is being sought by authorities in the Dominican Republic for murder.
The pitcher shot and killed 25-year-old Michel Castillo Almonte and wounded his 17-year-old brother during a New Year's Eve celebration in the northeast coastal town of Luperon, police said in a statement. No motive was disclosed. Simon is from the Dominican Republic, and police said he fled after the violence.
This does not bode well for Simon. Ugueth Urbina got charged with attempted murder in Venezeula in 2005 and is still serving a 14-year sentence.
It may seem trite but this is a baseball blog and I have to consider the baseball implications. Alfredo Simon, even in the best case scenario, will not be with the team at the beginning of the season and may never return. The Oriole bullpen now consists of Koji Uehara, Mike Gonzalez and Jim Johnson from last year. Jason Berken expects to return in time for Spring Training but is coming off a shoulder injury. Jeremy Accardo has been signed. The best case scenario still leaves the Orioles looking for two more arms. David Hernandez is gone, Kam Mickolio, the closest reliever to the majors in the organization is gone.
It's an open audition, folks. The O's should be inviting every reliever who says yes, major league or minor league, to Spring Training to fill the open spots in the bullpen.
The pitcher shot and killed 25-year-old Michel Castillo Almonte and wounded his 17-year-old brother during a New Year's Eve celebration in the northeast coastal town of Luperon, police said in a statement. No motive was disclosed. Simon is from the Dominican Republic, and police said he fled after the violence.
This does not bode well for Simon. Ugueth Urbina got charged with attempted murder in Venezeula in 2005 and is still serving a 14-year sentence.
It may seem trite but this is a baseball blog and I have to consider the baseball implications. Alfredo Simon, even in the best case scenario, will not be with the team at the beginning of the season and may never return. The Oriole bullpen now consists of Koji Uehara, Mike Gonzalez and Jim Johnson from last year. Jason Berken expects to return in time for Spring Training but is coming off a shoulder injury. Jeremy Accardo has been signed. The best case scenario still leaves the Orioles looking for two more arms. David Hernandez is gone, Kam Mickolio, the closest reliever to the majors in the organization is gone.
It's an open audition, folks. The O's should be inviting every reliever who says yes, major league or minor league, to Spring Training to fill the open spots in the bullpen.
Is the Oriole Pitching Prospect Pool Too Shallow?
ESPN's Rob Neyer gives another lesson in the concept of TINSTAAP: "There is no such thing as a pitching prospect."
This time, he took a look at the top prospects as selected by Baseball America over the last 21 years.
I'm going to start with something really simple. Here are the top-rated hitters and pitchers from each year, presented chronologically (in a number of cases, the top-rated guy repeated a year later, and they are noted as such) ...
Hitters: Andujar Cedeno, Chipper Jones (2), Cliff Floyd, Alex Rodriguez, Andruw Jones (2), Ben Grieve, J.D. Drew, Pat Burrell, Josh Hamilton, Hank Blalock, Mark Teixeira, Joe Mauer (2), Delmon Young, Alex Gordon, Jay Bruce, Matt Wieters, Jason Heyward.
Pitchers: Todd Van Poppel, Brien Taylor (2), James Baldwin, Armando Benitez, Paul Wilson, Kerry Wood (2), Rick Ankiel (2), Josh Beckett (2), Jesse Foppert, Edwin Jackson, Felix Hernandez, Francisco Liriano, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Joba Chamberlain, David Price, Stephen Strasburg.
I believe that first list accounts for six MVP Awards, and the second for exactly one Cy Young Award.
I believe the first list includes one absolute bust -- arguably Gordon, so far -- while the second includes two absolute busts (Taylor and Foppert) along with a number of pitchers (Van Poppel, Baldwin, Wilson, Wood) who did hang around for a while but never hit the predicted heights.
Ankiel is in a class of his own. The jury is still out on Dice-K and Joba. You really can't say anything negative about Hernandez or Price (except Price is still young and highly susceptible to the same injury woes that have waylaid so many other young pitchers).
It just highlights how uncertain the path of pitching prospects is when compared to hitting prospects. And since the Orioles' philosophy of late has been to "grow the arms", you have to think hard about the direction of their farm system given that pitching prospects are so volatile a commodity.
You have heard me quote Branch Rickey a thousand times. "From quantity comes quality." I applauded the Orioles when they added a second Dominican Summer League team last year, giving them 7 minor league teams in their system. Now, with the excuse that resources are being spread too thin, the Orioles are dropping down to one DSL team and ending their affiliation with Bluefield in the Appalachian League. This gives them only 5 teams full of players for 2011.
Why is this important? As Neyer's exercise highlights and as is generally accepted, you can't always count on your top picks to provide pitching for your major league club. Many times, depth is provided from the later rounds and the more spots you have for guys to play, the better chance you have to stumble upon a diamond in the rough.
A.J. Burnett was an 8th round pick. James Shields a 16th round pick. Jamie Garcia, John Smoltz and Andy Pettitte were all 22nd rounders. Roy Oswalt and Dallas Braden were 23rd and 24th round picks, respectively. I could go on and this doesn't even include relievers who often come from later in the draft.
The point is, if you are going to build your farm system on pitching, the most unpredictable of commodities in baseball, shouldn't you have as many rotation spots for them as possible, especially in the lower levels?
I would assume that with the contraction of two teams in their farm system, they will use that savings to spend more on the draft and on international talent. I hope so or the Oriole farm system may be taking a step backwards in 2011. That would be a shame given the steady progress it's made over the past four years.
This time, he took a look at the top prospects as selected by Baseball America over the last 21 years.
I'm going to start with something really simple. Here are the top-rated hitters and pitchers from each year, presented chronologically (in a number of cases, the top-rated guy repeated a year later, and they are noted as such) ...
Hitters: Andujar Cedeno, Chipper Jones (2), Cliff Floyd, Alex Rodriguez, Andruw Jones (2), Ben Grieve, J.D. Drew, Pat Burrell, Josh Hamilton, Hank Blalock, Mark Teixeira, Joe Mauer (2), Delmon Young, Alex Gordon, Jay Bruce, Matt Wieters, Jason Heyward.
Pitchers: Todd Van Poppel, Brien Taylor (2), James Baldwin, Armando Benitez, Paul Wilson, Kerry Wood (2), Rick Ankiel (2), Josh Beckett (2), Jesse Foppert, Edwin Jackson, Felix Hernandez, Francisco Liriano, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Joba Chamberlain, David Price, Stephen Strasburg.
I believe that first list accounts for six MVP Awards, and the second for exactly one Cy Young Award.
I believe the first list includes one absolute bust -- arguably Gordon, so far -- while the second includes two absolute busts (Taylor and Foppert) along with a number of pitchers (Van Poppel, Baldwin, Wilson, Wood) who did hang around for a while but never hit the predicted heights.
Ankiel is in a class of his own. The jury is still out on Dice-K and Joba. You really can't say anything negative about Hernandez or Price (except Price is still young and highly susceptible to the same injury woes that have waylaid so many other young pitchers).
It just highlights how uncertain the path of pitching prospects is when compared to hitting prospects. And since the Orioles' philosophy of late has been to "grow the arms", you have to think hard about the direction of their farm system given that pitching prospects are so volatile a commodity.
You have heard me quote Branch Rickey a thousand times. "From quantity comes quality." I applauded the Orioles when they added a second Dominican Summer League team last year, giving them 7 minor league teams in their system. Now, with the excuse that resources are being spread too thin, the Orioles are dropping down to one DSL team and ending their affiliation with Bluefield in the Appalachian League. This gives them only 5 teams full of players for 2011.
Why is this important? As Neyer's exercise highlights and as is generally accepted, you can't always count on your top picks to provide pitching for your major league club. Many times, depth is provided from the later rounds and the more spots you have for guys to play, the better chance you have to stumble upon a diamond in the rough.
A.J. Burnett was an 8th round pick. James Shields a 16th round pick. Jamie Garcia, John Smoltz and Andy Pettitte were all 22nd rounders. Roy Oswalt and Dallas Braden were 23rd and 24th round picks, respectively. I could go on and this doesn't even include relievers who often come from later in the draft.
The point is, if you are going to build your farm system on pitching, the most unpredictable of commodities in baseball, shouldn't you have as many rotation spots for them as possible, especially in the lower levels?
I would assume that with the contraction of two teams in their farm system, they will use that savings to spend more on the draft and on international talent. I hope so or the Oriole farm system may be taking a step backwards in 2011. That would be a shame given the steady progress it's made over the past four years.
DIY lab: cut out dress
spanish moss
Asos
Bona Drag
The DIY inspiration of today comes from these cut out dresses really in the moment.The unespected cut out detail on the ribs is strategic,sexy but not vulgar is wearable by everyone.
I made a selection of these dresses for you, you can click on the images to shop them.
If you have some time we can have some fun cutting out a dress we already own.Try on the dress and in front of the mirror visualize where to cut the dress, on your ribs.Mark with pins where width and the height of the cut,just where it has to start and where to end.
Take off the dress draw a triangular shape,the shape of the part you have to cut, pin it on your dress and cut it out paying attention to leave space for a seam,make sure you leave enought space at the center to keep the dress together.
Refine the cut with a seam.
You can cut the dress only on the front till the lateral sewing or cut it both sides.
You can sew on the borders of your cut a beaded,sequined or studded trim if you like and you're done.
I find very interesting the dress sold at bona drag, the knot detaling on the front.
It looks like this dress can be done with a huge t-shirt dress or a big men's shirt.
Plus for a more parisienne,glamour look you can even make this dress with silk scarfs, even famous brands ones like gucci or hermes turning your diy project in a unique fashion piece.
I'll try to make it and then i'll get back to you with the tutorial!
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Derrek Lee Joins the Orioles
Derrek Lee has joined the Orioles, agreeing to a 1-year deal worth $8 million and could reach $10 mil with incentives.
Once the Orioles lost out on Adam Dunn, signing Lee or Adam LaRoche to a one year deal were the two best outcomes I could hope for. Paul Konerko would have been a expensive mistake and outbidding the Tigers for Victor Martinez would have been a bad overpay.
Lee and LaRoche were attractive for different reasons; Lee has a better upside, LaRoche was a more predictable, steady commodity. Now, I didn't like LaRoche much on a two year deal and even less at the rumored three year $21 million offer. LaRoche is OK...not worth making a commitment to.
So now the Orioles have Lee for 2011 who does not arrive without his own set of concerns and risks. He is coming off the worst full season of his career, will be 35 next season and was hampered by hand injuries all last season. There is a real chance he doesn't rebound from his 2010 levels.
But if he's healthy (and perhaps playing some games at DH will help him stay that way), Lee adds another intriguing right handed power bat to the Oriole lineup. Camden Yards rewards right handed power as the home run factor for RHB at the park is 129 for 2006-2009 (second highest in the majors over that span) according to the Bill James Handbook. They did build OPACY with Cal Ripken in mind, after all. Wrigley allows home runs to right handed batter at about the league average. There is also evidence that Lee was swinging the bat a bit better than his final numbers indicate, that while his power was diminished, he was also pretty unlucky with his line drives.
The more interesting thing is that the addition of Lee and Mark Reynolds give the Orioles one of the best groups of right handed power hitters that they have had in the last 20 years. Reynolds, Lee and Jones could all slug more than .450 (and ISO .175) becoming the only the second trio to do so since Camden Yards was built. (Javy Lopez, Melvin Mora and Miguel Tejada did it in 2004.) Add to that the outside shot of Nolan Reimold and J.J. Hardy doing the same...let's just say if you get seats in the left field bleachers, bring your glove. A lot of balls are going over that fence.
There is no first base prospect in AAA knocking on the door to Baltimore. Lee isn't blocking anybody in 2011 and even if he hits like he did in 2010, it's still a big upgrade. Oriole first baseman combined to OPS .625 last season, the lowest offensive output from any position on a team that was not exactly filled with offensive stars. He's a good stopgap and should help the Oriole offense approach something resembling respectability in 2011. Reynolds, Jones, Lee and Scott at the heart of your lineup with Roberts and Markakis setting the table? It could be fun.
Once the Orioles lost out on Adam Dunn, signing Lee or Adam LaRoche to a one year deal were the two best outcomes I could hope for. Paul Konerko would have been a expensive mistake and outbidding the Tigers for Victor Martinez would have been a bad overpay.
Lee and LaRoche were attractive for different reasons; Lee has a better upside, LaRoche was a more predictable, steady commodity. Now, I didn't like LaRoche much on a two year deal and even less at the rumored three year $21 million offer. LaRoche is OK...not worth making a commitment to.
So now the Orioles have Lee for 2011 who does not arrive without his own set of concerns and risks. He is coming off the worst full season of his career, will be 35 next season and was hampered by hand injuries all last season. There is a real chance he doesn't rebound from his 2010 levels.
But if he's healthy (and perhaps playing some games at DH will help him stay that way), Lee adds another intriguing right handed power bat to the Oriole lineup. Camden Yards rewards right handed power as the home run factor for RHB at the park is 129 for 2006-2009 (second highest in the majors over that span) according to the Bill James Handbook. They did build OPACY with Cal Ripken in mind, after all. Wrigley allows home runs to right handed batter at about the league average. There is also evidence that Lee was swinging the bat a bit better than his final numbers indicate, that while his power was diminished, he was also pretty unlucky with his line drives.
The more interesting thing is that the addition of Lee and Mark Reynolds give the Orioles one of the best groups of right handed power hitters that they have had in the last 20 years. Reynolds, Lee and Jones could all slug more than .450 (and ISO .175) becoming the only the second trio to do so since Camden Yards was built. (Javy Lopez, Melvin Mora and Miguel Tejada did it in 2004.) Add to that the outside shot of Nolan Reimold and J.J. Hardy doing the same...let's just say if you get seats in the left field bleachers, bring your glove. A lot of balls are going over that fence.
There is no first base prospect in AAA knocking on the door to Baltimore. Lee isn't blocking anybody in 2011 and even if he hits like he did in 2010, it's still a big upgrade. Oriole first baseman combined to OPS .625 last season, the lowest offensive output from any position on a team that was not exactly filled with offensive stars. He's a good stopgap and should help the Oriole offense approach something resembling respectability in 2011. Reynolds, Jones, Lee and Scott at the heart of your lineup with Roberts and Markakis setting the table? It could be fun.
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