It's time to concede some things.
At the beginning of the season, I really thought the O's had the horses to contend this year. Perhaps these expectations were unrealistic but what can I say. I'm a fan.
Time to reconsider. While the O's could still finish as a .500 team this year, they will not contend.
Jaret Wright is hurt again and I fear that he will not give us any meaningful innings this season. I had him penciled in for 150 innings and while he is not a great pitcher, his loss leaves a gaping hole in the rotation as far as someone eating innings.
The bullpen has been great but is being overworked. It can't last at this rate of work. Adam Loewen is still learning and doesn't work deep into games. Only Erik Bedard and Daniel Cabrera have been able to work deep into games and only sporadically. Steve Trachsel has never been a big innings guy. He has exceeded expectations this year but it can't last.
The offense has been anemic. Yes, we just got Jay Payton and Ramon Hernandez back but that didn't help much during the Cleveland series. Our lineup has been mediocre at best and it tends to be feast or famine when it comes to scoring runs.
.500 is the realistic goal. Time to develop the young pitchers and hope for the best.
Monday, April 30, 2007
Friday, April 27, 2007
Sick in more ways than one...
I've been laid up for the last day and a half which gave me plenty of time to watch our two losses to the Red Sox.
The worst news is that if Schilling stays healthy and Beckett doesn't regress, the Sox will be tough to beat this year. They looked unbeatable against the O's and have looked that way against most of the league this year.
The good news is that Cabrera and Loewen both pitched well, they were just up against tougher competition. Cabrera was a bit wild and probably shouldn't have been sent out for the 7th inning when he really lost it. Loewen again was able to show mental toughness as he battled through six innings in which it all wasn't working for him.
Off to Cleveland. The O's will have trouble with Jeremy Sowers as they have had issues with just about any lefty starter the opposition has been able to put on the mound. Jake Westbrook and Francisco Carmona look like good candidates for the O's bats to wake up against.
The Cleveland lineup is one to be feared though and the Indians are on a 6 game win streak while the O's have lost 4 straight.
The worst news is that if Schilling stays healthy and Beckett doesn't regress, the Sox will be tough to beat this year. They looked unbeatable against the O's and have looked that way against most of the league this year.
The good news is that Cabrera and Loewen both pitched well, they were just up against tougher competition. Cabrera was a bit wild and probably shouldn't have been sent out for the 7th inning when he really lost it. Loewen again was able to show mental toughness as he battled through six innings in which it all wasn't working for him.
Off to Cleveland. The O's will have trouble with Jeremy Sowers as they have had issues with just about any lefty starter the opposition has been able to put on the mound. Jake Westbrook and Francisco Carmona look like good candidates for the O's bats to wake up against.
The Cleveland lineup is one to be feared though and the Indians are on a 6 game win streak while the O's have lost 4 straight.
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Around The Red Sox Blogosphere: Series Preview
I really don't have much to comment on from yesterday's game but there are two things I wanted to mention.
After watching Miguel Tejada and Chris Gomez work in simpatico over the weekend and watching Brian Roberts poor decision to throw to second yesterday, I have come to the conclusion that Brian Roberts is the middle infielder who's in a fielding slump. He needs to snap out of it.
Hats off to Jeremy Guthrie who pitched as well as could be expected for a spot starter. Thanks for the quality start Jeremy, it's far better than we would have gotten last year's bullpen.
Now for the Sawx:
Evan Brunell over at Fire Brand of the American League, says the Orioles have a pretty good club this year and highlights Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen but then has this to say as he looks forward to the fall:
"...we get to clean up against Baltimore and Tampa Bay in September for 12 of the 27 games in September, no small number."
Hey! The bully's kicking sand in our face! We'll just see who's beating up on who pal...
At Keep Your Sox On In Brooklyn, they seem to think Boston will take it's frustration from their games with Toronto out on the O's:
"This makes me want to punch something hard. Wait what is that? Another bird? A little orange fellow? So bright and colorful and full of life? Yeah....Orioles... prepare to meet your pane of completely transparent glass. Splat."
Bring it on boys. This team's not a pushover this year.
And at a blog called KC Bean Boy, this insight was given:
"Baltimore may be an interesting trip since it will be in question on which Orioles team shows up for work on Wednesday and Thursday and if Boston will be looking past the O’s and up I-95 for the rematch with the Yanks."
And much like the Red Sox players themselves, the bloggers of Red Sox Nation either deride the O's or overlook them completely to focus on the Yankees series coming up over the weekend.
Hey O's, let's give them something to consider for the next series, OK?
After watching Miguel Tejada and Chris Gomez work in simpatico over the weekend and watching Brian Roberts poor decision to throw to second yesterday, I have come to the conclusion that Brian Roberts is the middle infielder who's in a fielding slump. He needs to snap out of it.
Hats off to Jeremy Guthrie who pitched as well as could be expected for a spot starter. Thanks for the quality start Jeremy, it's far better than we would have gotten last year's bullpen.
Now for the Sawx:
Evan Brunell over at Fire Brand of the American League, says the Orioles have a pretty good club this year and highlights Daniel Cabrera and Adam Loewen but then has this to say as he looks forward to the fall:
"...we get to clean up against Baltimore and Tampa Bay in September for 12 of the 27 games in September, no small number."
Hey! The bully's kicking sand in our face! We'll just see who's beating up on who pal...
At Keep Your Sox On In Brooklyn, they seem to think Boston will take it's frustration from their games with Toronto out on the O's:
"This makes me want to punch something hard. Wait what is that? Another bird? A little orange fellow? So bright and colorful and full of life? Yeah....Orioles... prepare to meet your pane of completely transparent glass. Splat."
Bring it on boys. This team's not a pushover this year.
And at a blog called KC Bean Boy, this insight was given:
"Baltimore may be an interesting trip since it will be in question on which Orioles team shows up for work on Wednesday and Thursday and if Boston will be looking past the O’s and up I-95 for the rematch with the Yanks."
And much like the Red Sox players themselves, the bloggers of Red Sox Nation either deride the O's or overlook them completely to focus on the Yankees series coming up over the weekend.
Hey O's, let's give them something to consider for the next series, OK?
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
Williamson to DL, O's Call Up...Johnson?
Raise your hand if you saw this guy getting the call. As I mentioned in last week's minor league wrapup, Jim Johnson has been the best pitcher at AAA this year. He has posted a 2.81 ERA with 13 Ks and 3BB in 16 innings.
As I've mentioned before, Todd Williams is never coming back under normal circumstances. Baltimore would have to be decimated by injuries for him to get the call.
Roch Kubato reports in his blog that Mora tried to signal Patterson three times before he bunted.
"That was my decision," Mora said. "That's the way I play baseball. I play to win. I play to surprise the other team. That's why I've been in the playoffs before, because I like to do the little things."
That's a copout. A) You need to make sure that Patterson understands before you lay down a bunt or B) lay down a decent enough bunt to give the guy a legitimate chance to score. Mora did neither.
And I love you Melvin but you went to the playoffs on a team that featured Mike Piazza, a young Mike Hampton, Al Leiter in his prime and a young Edgar Alfonso. Even your current teammate, Jay Payon, was a more important cog on that team than you.
And if that was a veiled dig at Corey Patterson, he was a major contributor on the 2003 Cubs team that went to the NLCS (even though he was injured by the end of the season.).
As I've mentioned before, Todd Williams is never coming back under normal circumstances. Baltimore would have to be decimated by injuries for him to get the call.
Roch Kubato reports in his blog that Mora tried to signal Patterson three times before he bunted.
"That was my decision," Mora said. "That's the way I play baseball. I play to win. I play to surprise the other team. That's why I've been in the playoffs before, because I like to do the little things."
That's a copout. A) You need to make sure that Patterson understands before you lay down a bunt or B) lay down a decent enough bunt to give the guy a legitimate chance to score. Mora did neither.
And I love you Melvin but you went to the playoffs on a team that featured Mike Piazza, a young Mike Hampton, Al Leiter in his prime and a young Edgar Alfonso. Even your current teammate, Jay Payon, was a more important cog on that team than you.
And if that was a veiled dig at Corey Patterson, he was a major contributor on the 2003 Cubs team that went to the NLCS (even though he was injured by the end of the season.).
What Happened?
After the play, Melvin Mora angrily glared down to third and Corey Patterson looked stunned and confused. It was really hard to tell who was responsible for the bizarre play.
With men on second and third and one out, Mora decided to bunt when a sac fly would've tied the game. It appears that Mora acted independently on this one and that Patterson had no idea what he was planning to do. If you're going to pull a play like this, you better make damn well sure you execute and Mora didn't. But even with a bad bunt, if Patterson had been off at the pitch he would've scored anyway. But he didn't get that opportunity because he wasn't tipped off. A really stupid play that may have cost the O's the game.
With men on second and third and one out, Mora decided to bunt when a sac fly would've tied the game. It appears that Mora acted independently on this one and that Patterson had no idea what he was planning to do. If you're going to pull a play like this, you better make damn well sure you execute and Mora didn't. But even with a bad bunt, if Patterson had been off at the pitch he would've scored anyway. But he didn't get that opportunity because he wasn't tipped off. A really stupid play that may have cost the O's the game.
Here's the WPA graph courtesy of FanGraphs. Melvin Mora's single act swung the odds more than 20% back in Oakland's favor.
For more WPA details of this game, check out the game data on FanGraphs. (Thanks to the guys at Fangraphs for allowing me to post their graphs and such.)
Sam Perlozzo is secondarily responsible. Although no one in the stadium would've expected the move by Mora, Perlozzo should've told him exactly what to do and what not to do. Seems a bit silly but I'll bet he does it next time.
Sam Perlozzo is secondarily responsible. Although no one in the stadium would've expected the move by Mora, Perlozzo should've told him exactly what to do and what not to do. Seems a bit silly but I'll bet he does it next time.
Games in the AL East are precious and it's simply inexcusable to lose one on stupidity alone.
The good news is the O's once again rally to make the game close and give themselves a chance to win. The bullpen was masterful yet again. The Yankess and Red Sox lost last night.
Another concern is Erik Bedard who for the first time looked rattled last night as he was getting touched up by Nick Swisher and company. Bedard needs to perform better, he's our ace.
Scott Williamson left with shoulder issues, expect a roster move today or tomorrow.
The good news is the O's once again rally to make the game close and give themselves a chance to win. The bullpen was masterful yet again. The Yankess and Red Sox lost last night.
Another concern is Erik Bedard who for the first time looked rattled last night as he was getting touched up by Nick Swisher and company. Bedard needs to perform better, he's our ace.
Scott Williamson left with shoulder issues, expect a roster move today or tomorrow.
Monday, April 23, 2007
Around the Oakland Blogosphere: Series Preview
Over at The Drumbeat, San Francisco Chronicle Beat Writer Susan Slusser reports that Rich Harden won't make his start on Tuesday. That's good news for Baltimore as Harden is arguably the A's most talented pitcher. Milton Bradley may not make the trip either, weakening an already lethargic offense.
At Athletics Nation, baseballgirl reports that rookie Dallas Braden will make his major league debut against the O's in place of the hurting Rich Harden. Braden is a lefty who has exhibited fantastic control over his minor league career.
Brad Halsey, now at AAA, thought he would be getting the call for the Tuesday start and ripped the A's for what he suspects were less than honorable motives:
"Then they send you down and screw you. I'm grinding it out, trying to be a team guy, and I get f -- . It's all just a business decision, because if I came up and pitched Tuesday and then had an MRI and had to go on the DL, they'd have to pay me major-league DL money. It's such a mom-and-pop organization."
Ouch. Guess he's not worried about remaining with the organization.
Overall, the A's blogs haven't done a whole lot of previewing for the two game series. For a more thorough preview, check out Heathir Irvin's preview posted on Oriole Magic. Good stuff.
At Athletics Nation, baseballgirl reports that rookie Dallas Braden will make his major league debut against the O's in place of the hurting Rich Harden. Braden is a lefty who has exhibited fantastic control over his minor league career.
Brad Halsey, now at AAA, thought he would be getting the call for the Tuesday start and ripped the A's for what he suspects were less than honorable motives:
"Then they send you down and screw you. I'm grinding it out, trying to be a team guy, and I get f -- . It's all just a business decision, because if I came up and pitched Tuesday and then had an MRI and had to go on the DL, they'd have to pay me major-league DL money. It's such a mom-and-pop organization."
Ouch. Guess he's not worried about remaining with the organization.
Overall, the A's blogs haven't done a whole lot of previewing for the two game series. For a more thorough preview, check out Heathir Irvin's preview posted on Oriole Magic. Good stuff.
Baltimore Sweeps Toronto Aside
Was Toronto at full strength? No. Is it still April? Yes. Forget all the justifications for the experts to dismiss this sweep of the Blue Jays. This weekend the O's sent a message and that message is that they will contend this year. The darkhorse pick in the AL East this year is Toronto and Baltimore took them out like last week's garbage.
If Boston loses tonight, Baltimore will be the hottest team in the AL. (Friday night I assumed the Yankees had won that game vs. Boston). Not everyone has caught on yet but Chris Berman did refer to Baltimore as "red-hot" on Baseball Tonight this evening.
Adam Loewen's performance on Saturday exemplifies what has been so impressive about the "young guns" on this staff. Although Loewen didn't have his best stuff and certainly didn't have a lot of control, he didn't get rattled, he battled and scraped his way through 5.2 innings and let his bullpen come in and protect the lead. (Chad Bradford was huge in relieving Loewen with the bases loaded. Bradford is not a strikeout guy at all but got a big strikeout of Jason Smith to end the inning. Toronto never threatened again.) We have seen this over and over again this season, with Cabrera, Bedard and Loewen not having their best outings but keeping their composure and the club winning the game anyway. It's encouraging.
Also encouraging is that the bats are starting to come around. It doesn't hurt that they are facing less than stellar pitching (save A. J. Burnett) but the O's were struggling to score against anybody a couple of weeks ago. Today you saw a glimpse of what this lineup can do when everyone gets healthy. They didn't ahve to start Jay Gibbons against a lefty and Jay Payton made the lineup a much tougher proposition for Gustavo Chacin. Outside of Alberto Castillo, there was a legitimate major league hitter in the lineup today. Just wait until Ramon Hernandez (and Brian Roberts) come back.
Steve Trachsel got his first win of the season as he held the Jays to one run even though he gave up 4 hits and issued 4 walks over his 5.1 innings of work. Nick Markakis continued his hot hitting with a double and a triple (a near homerun) as he and Miguel Tejada both drove in three. They chased Chacin in the 5th and continued to knock Victor Zambrano around as they bludgeoned the Jays 7-3. Only a two out rally in the 9th against Brian Burres made the score look somewhat respectable.
Now for the reality checks. Adam Loewen needs to find his control. Walking batters like you are the 2005 version of Daniel Cabrera is not a recipe for long term success. The lineup ranks 8th in the American League in slugging. That will also need to improve if Baltimore hopes to keep pace. Steve Trachsel must have a horseshoe stuck where the sun don't shine. He can't possibly keep this up for the whole season. The rotation needs to pitch deeper into games if the bullpen hopes to have season long success. Only the quality start challenged Yankees have more innings logged by their bullpen than Baltimore. Today, the O's will probably face the toughest pitcher they've seen all year.
But am I optimistic? Hell yeah.
P.S. It's sure been weird to be rooting for the Yankees the last two nights. But in a good way.
If Boston loses tonight, Baltimore will be the hottest team in the AL. (Friday night I assumed the Yankees had won that game vs. Boston). Not everyone has caught on yet but Chris Berman did refer to Baltimore as "red-hot" on Baseball Tonight this evening.
Adam Loewen's performance on Saturday exemplifies what has been so impressive about the "young guns" on this staff. Although Loewen didn't have his best stuff and certainly didn't have a lot of control, he didn't get rattled, he battled and scraped his way through 5.2 innings and let his bullpen come in and protect the lead. (Chad Bradford was huge in relieving Loewen with the bases loaded. Bradford is not a strikeout guy at all but got a big strikeout of Jason Smith to end the inning. Toronto never threatened again.) We have seen this over and over again this season, with Cabrera, Bedard and Loewen not having their best outings but keeping their composure and the club winning the game anyway. It's encouraging.
Also encouraging is that the bats are starting to come around. It doesn't hurt that they are facing less than stellar pitching (save A. J. Burnett) but the O's were struggling to score against anybody a couple of weeks ago. Today you saw a glimpse of what this lineup can do when everyone gets healthy. They didn't ahve to start Jay Gibbons against a lefty and Jay Payton made the lineup a much tougher proposition for Gustavo Chacin. Outside of Alberto Castillo, there was a legitimate major league hitter in the lineup today. Just wait until Ramon Hernandez (and Brian Roberts) come back.
Steve Trachsel got his first win of the season as he held the Jays to one run even though he gave up 4 hits and issued 4 walks over his 5.1 innings of work. Nick Markakis continued his hot hitting with a double and a triple (a near homerun) as he and Miguel Tejada both drove in three. They chased Chacin in the 5th and continued to knock Victor Zambrano around as they bludgeoned the Jays 7-3. Only a two out rally in the 9th against Brian Burres made the score look somewhat respectable.
Now for the reality checks. Adam Loewen needs to find his control. Walking batters like you are the 2005 version of Daniel Cabrera is not a recipe for long term success. The lineup ranks 8th in the American League in slugging. That will also need to improve if Baltimore hopes to keep pace. Steve Trachsel must have a horseshoe stuck where the sun don't shine. He can't possibly keep this up for the whole season. The rotation needs to pitch deeper into games if the bullpen hopes to have season long success. Only the quality start challenged Yankees have more innings logged by their bullpen than Baltimore. Today, the O's will probably face the toughest pitcher they've seen all year.
But am I optimistic? Hell yeah.
P.S. It's sure been weird to be rooting for the Yankees the last two nights. But in a good way.
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