19th Century Nicknames for 21st Century Orioles

I ran across this link on FanGraphs.com. The 19th-Century Baltimore Orioles Nickname Generator. And it was funny. For a minute or two. But it started repeating itself in short order. With all the "real" nicknames available from that colorful era, this was the best they could do?

So I decided to give my own nicknames to the current Baltimore Oriole roster. I used actual nicknames that were given to players who played for Baltimore teams prior to 1900 and tried to assign them as best I could. Here's what I came up with.

C "Medicine Matt" Wieters - I have no idea what this means but it's pretty bad ass. And Wieters could use a little of that in his game. "Rounding third and heading for home? Matt is waiting at the plate with your medicine..."

1B "Scoops" Lee - As a first baseman known for his good defense, Scoops seemed like a good name for a guy who can pick 'em out of the dirt. And Lee seems to be a likable guy and who wouldn't like a guy named "Scoops"?

2B "Dandy Brian" Roberts - A name given freely to players with boyish good looks, this seemed pretty appropriate for the diminutive but dreamy Roberts. And it rhymes with "dandelion"

SS "Dimples" Hardy - No, really. Google image him. He has them.

3B "Blondie" Reynolds - He had to trim his locks a bit but it still works for the fair-haired Reynolds.

RF "Rip" Markakis - I had a hard time with Nick but Rip seemed appropriate for a guy who laces line drives all over the park. And it sounds good with his last name.

CF "Phenomenal" Jones - I have a feeling he'd like this name a lot. He's the most outgoing and flashy of the current crew. And it works well for a center fielder.

LF "Bloody Luke" Scott - Do I really have to elaborate?

DH "Papa" Guerrero - "Pa" was a common name given to elder players in the 1800's. "Papa" gives it a Spanish translation for the veteran slugger.

C "Boileryard" Fox - Doesn't Jake look like a dock worker or a pipefitter, something of that ilk? It fits.

IF "Stubby" Izturis - A name for players who are vertically challenged. Izzy's not that short really but it made me chuckle.

OF "Smiling Felix" Pie - Have you ever watched a game where this guy doesn't flash his dynamite smile? It was made for him.

IF "Sleepy Robert" Andino - Because sometimes he goes to sleep on the basepaths. Or in the field.

SP "Doc" Guthrie - These are starting to sound like names for dwarves now. "Doc" was often given to college guys who played the unrefined game of base. Guthrie is a veteran twirler who went to Stanford. And he's kind of cerebral on the mound. Close enough.

SP "Big Brian" or "Moose" Matusz - Brian needs a name with some intimidation factor. He is 6'4" so "Big" seemed good enough. I love "Moose" but, obviously, it conjures up memories of Mike Mussina. Couldn't decide so I listed both.

SP "Kid" Tillman - He made his MLB debut at 21 so it definitely applies. And doesn't it kind of make him sound sort of lovable and an outlaw at the same time? "Another perfect inning for Kid Tillman!"

SP "The Apollo of the Box" (Jake Arrieta) - This one requires a bit of explanation. Tony Mullane was a 19th century hurler who was ambidextrous. But he also was known for having the classic good looks of a Greek god. If fact, Mullane was so handsome that teams would ensure that he pitched on Ladies' Day promotions just to drum up more business. According to an informal poll on Twitter, the ladies love Jake Arrieta's "movie star" looks. And they both have/had moustaches. Done.

SP "Vinegar Brad" Bergesen - Some of the pitching staff needs a bit of edge, a hint of danger, some intimidation factor injected into their image. Again, I have no idea what it means but I might think twice about digging in against "Vinegar Brad".

RP "Lefty" Gonzalez - It's so simple and obvious but while I have had my doubts about Mike Gonzalez, Lefty Gonzalez sounds like a guy I HAVE to have on my team.

RP "Dirty Jim" Johnson - Again, the intimidation factor is high with this one. "Uh oh, Showalter's going to  the mound and he's calling "Dirty Jim" in from the bullpen!" It worked for The Nasty Boys.

RP "Chippy" Accardo - He might throw one in at your hands. Sounds like he's itching for a fight.

RP "Tricky Jason" Berken - You could shorten this to "Tricky J" for a more modern flair. Sounds like a crafty junkballer.

RP "Buttercup" Rupe - Because somebody was getting that one.

RP "Osaka" Uehara - Lots of nicknames were assigned based on the players' place of birth. Jersey. Texas. Or my favorite, Egyptian Healey. Koji was born in Osaka and now he sounds like a villian from Kill Bill.

RP "Jumbo" Gregg - Gregg is 6'6" and 240 lbs. The name "Jumbo" was given to players of far slighter build back in the olden days.

Think any will stick?

Little Italy, NY Engagement Shoot | Ny Wedding Photography Inspiration by Vanessa Joy Photography

How beautiful is this engagement shoot in New York's Little Italy?! It looks like it comes straight from a vintage film. I love it! So photography is so romantic. sigh...

Details:
Photographer: Vanessa Joy Photography
Reception Venue:  Little Italy, New York



xo

Fearless Predictions - Baltimore Orioles 2011

Looking at these predictions, they seem way less fearless than really obvious. At least some of them. But here they are anyway...


If Brian Roberts plays in 130 games, I'm going with 80 wins. If he ends up on the DL, 76 wins.

Zach Britton wins the AL Rookie of the Year. Yeah, Jeremy Hellickson is the odds on favorite but I think Britton comes up on the outside and catches him.

Adam Jones breaks out this season. A mild breakout, something like a .295/.340/.450. 20 home runs. But a breakout nonetheless.

I can't predict playing time but Nolan Reimold will finish the season with a higher OPS than Vladimir Guerrero. So will Luke Scott.

Jeremy Guthrie will, once again, have an ERA lower than his FIP. Probably significantly so.

Nick Markakis will hit 40 doubles. Again. Also will have at least a .360 OBP.

Matt Wieters hits 15 home runs. Anything else he does is anybody's guess.

Luke Scott will OPS north of .850.

Josh Rupe doesn't see May 15th in Baltimore. He sees it from Norfolk.

Zach Britton is in Baltimore before May 15th.

JJ Hardy will be a fan favorite by June 1st.

Matt Albers will outperform most of the Oriole pen while pitching for Boston.

Mark Hendrickson ends up playing a large role in the Oriole season. Take that as you will.

Mark Reynolds hits 30 homers and has 200 Ks.

More round sunglasses

Rounded sunglasses are so hot this season,here's another collection of the styles available for spring.The coolest are the ones in the centre from Pucci.They are both futuristic and steampunk.The ones with the colored lens are from Cynthia Rowley.
If you want to see more have a view at a previous post rounded googles.

Free Nolan Reimold

"Yeah, great to see you too...again..."

So signing Vlad Guerrero has, for the moment, done exactly what I said it would do waaaay back before the Orioles had even signed him:

Vlad's signing would push Scott to left field, Felix Pie to the bench and Nolan Reimold to Norfolk. And that's fine. But what if Reimold goes to AAA and starts tearing it up for a couple months like he did in 2009? Assuming health for all the OF/1B/DH's involved, there is nowhere for him to play.

Nolan Reimold came to camp this spring ready to play. He finally looked healthy and fully recovered from his Achilles surgery. He ran well, played better defense (passable anyway) and hit like crazy. He controlled the strike zone, hit for power and generally looked like the guy who was a Rookie of the Year candidate in 2009.

And where did that get him? Banished to the AAA Norfolk Tides...because there is no room for him on the roster.

The guy needs to play. Some have diminished his value and called Reimold "overrated". But Reimold OPS'ed .831 in 2009...which is the same level of offense that Nick Markakis has provided over his five year career. (And yes...I'm throwing out 2010. He wasn't healthy. Period.) It's nothing to sneeze at. And if he can do that again or even improve on it...well, that's something this team needs to know before 2012's free agent season.

And this is not to disparage Guerrero at all. It was the combination of signing Derrek Lee and Guerrero that caused this situation. One or the other would have been great. Signing them both causes a logjam at positions where the O's have a guy on the farm ready to step in.

I said it then and I'll keep saying it. Reimold should be getting big league at bats. Now.

And until he does....I consider him exiled to Norfolk.

Orioles Trim 3 More, Put Duchscherer on DL

The Orioles re-assigned RHP Zach Britton, IF Brendan Harris and C Craig Tatum to Norfolk today and placed oft-injured former All-Star Justin Duchscherer on the DL.

So the roster looks something like this.

The Infield:
1B Derrek Lee
2B Brian Roberts
SS JJ Hardy
3B Mark Reynolds
C Matt Wieters

This is as expected. Lee looks healthy now, as does Roberts. Hardy has hit well and looks great with the glove. Mark Reynolds looks like you would expect, at the plate and in the field and we are all just waiting for Matt Wieters to really hit although his defense has been sensational this spring.

The Outfield:
LF Luke Scott
CF Adam Jones
RF Nick Markakis
DH Vlad Guerrero

Again, no surprises here. Everyone has looked pretty good this spring, even with Scott's slow start at the plate.

The Bench:
C Jake Fox
IF Cesar Izturis
IF Robert Andino
OF Felix Pie

Jake Fox had a hot spring and beats out Craig Tatum for the backup. Some seem to think that Tatum is a far superior defensive catcher than Fox. I have seen very little evidence of that. Just because a guy can't hit, it doesn't automatically make him a good defensive catcher (see Paul Bako, 2007).

Robert Andino and Cesar Izturis both make the club. This seems redundant but I suppose there is still real concern about Roberts' health. Andino has all the physical skills to be Izzy's equal in the field and at least his equal at the plate (low bar and all). But he doesn't hustle. Ever. If you've read this blog for any time at all, you know I do not call out guys on this lightly. But I've watched him at the major league level and in AAA for two seasons now. And he doesn't hustle. Ever. He is subject to defensive lapses, baserunning gaffes and just plain doggin' it at really bad times. Andino and Izturis will not both co-exist on this roster long term. One of them is going.

Pie is out of options and is a prototypical fourth outfielder. He sticks and should all season.

Rotation:
SP Jeremy Guthrie
SP Brian Matusz
SP Brad Bergesen
SP Jake Arrieta
SP Chris Tillman

Guthrie is the Opening Day starter yet again. Matusz seem to be ready to go for his Saturday start. We don't know about Bergesen yet. Arrieta and Tillman have backed into the rotation at this point but I'm glad they are there.

The Bullpen
RP Kevin Gregg
RP Koji Uehara
RP Michael Gonzalez
RP Josh Rupe
RP Jason Berken
RP Jim Johnson
RP Jeremy Accardo

Gregg looks like he's the closer with that big contract and all. Uehara is healthy again...for now. That's great...for now. Gonzalez still doesn't look like the guy I watched in Atlanta for two seasons. I thought they overpaid for him but I thought he'd be better than this. Berken looks fine and Johnson looks really, really good. Accardo, who I thought would be a slightly more expensive version of Matt Albers, has looked very good, throwing strikes and getting swinging strikes. Kudos to the Oriole scouting department for rescuing him from the Toronto farm system.

Josh Rupe made the team while Mark Hendrickson was released. Rupe didn't look so great this spring save for the ERA. Hendrickson is no great shakes but a useful middle reliever. I doubt very sincerely that Rupe will be even that. Hendrickson may decide to report to Norfolk and be called up when needed. But he will probably move on. This may be a blessing in disguise as younger arms in AAA get a shot at the Baltimore pen when Rupe inevitably flames out.

Rick Vandenhurk cleared waivers and will be in the starting rotation for Norfolk.

As for Nolan Reimold...we'll discuss that later...

DIY Stella MCCartney and Zara asymmetric shoes

inspirations

before

chalk tracingsstart cutting

halfway done

Here we are again.
Did you bet on the fact i would cut my version of the new zara asymmetric shoes?
Well i did.I've taken my scissors and cut a common pair of pointy shoes to asymmetric sexiness.
Let's get back for a moment.Those shoes which caused hysterical crysis in zara shops have been inspired by Stella MCCartney Morgana pointed slingbacks shoes you can buy at net a porter clicking on the name.
Have you ever realized how even something cheap can become exclusive when it isn't available in shops anymore?

DIY your own:

1. buy a pair of suedette pointy shoes (this material will be easier to cut)
2. look at the pictures of zara shoes and with a chalk draw the new asymmetric profile on the shoes
3. with scissors cut the profile (manicure scissors will be fine,they're small and accurate)
4. go over the shoes with a brush to erase chalk tracings
5. shoes are made of several layers;if these layers open up at the side glue them together again with vynilic glue
   

and it's done!
These are my new favorites!I've chosen a medium heel for this project.
Pointy toe and sky high heel can be a deadly combination that can force you to wear these shoes only in special occations.That would be a shame for a pair of shoes that go with everything and can rock in many outfits during this spring.

Ci risiamo.

Quanto tempo mi avevate dato prima che prendessi in mano le forbici e trasformassi brutalmente le solite scarpe a punta nelle scarpe che non ho potuto comprare in ben due negozi di zara?

Torniamo indietro per un attimo.Le scarpe che hanno generato l'isteria nei negozi spagnoli si ispirano ad un paio di scarpe di Stella MCartney,le Morgana pointed slingbacks che potete acquistare cliccando sul nome su net a porter.

Avete mai riflettuto su come anche qualcosa di accessibile economicamente può diventare esclusivo ed inaccessibile quando non è più disponibile nei negozi?

Se volete invece replicare il look:

1. prendere un paio di scarpe a punta scamosciate (saranno più facili da tagliare)
2. guardando le immagini delle scarpe di zara disegnate con un gessetto il profilo asimmetrico
3. con le forbici (quelle della manicure sono piccole e precise,andranno benissimo) tagliate il profilo
4. passate un pennellino sulle scarpe per togliere tutte le traccie del gesso
5. se gli strati che compono la scarpa appaiono divisi ai lati incollateli di nuovo con della colla vinilica

ed è fatta!

Ecco a voi le mie nuove preferite! Volutamente ho scelto un tacco moderato.Il duo punta stretta tacco alto può essere micidiale e costringerci ad indossare quelle scarpe solo in certe occasioni. Sarebbe un vero peccato per un paio di scarpe che vanno bene con tutto e possono diventare il jolly di molti outfit di primavera.

The Royal Wedding Invitations | Kate and William's Luxury Wedding Invitations

I was so excited when Lela New York was asked by Brides.com to redesign the Royal Wedding Invitations of Prince William and Kate Middleton! Here is our version ;)

Mixing both classic and modern details I wanted to use our very popular silk gatefolds for the invite accessory and keeping the actual invitation card classic. We made a portrait style invitation and used a royal navy for the silk color that was custom embroidered in a deeper navy to give a rich texture. A gold version was also applied on the inside of the invitation which can be seen when the invite is opened. The center closure is a custom made emblem that has the Royal "ER" engraved in the center and adorned with crystal details.
The invitation itself is a cream extra thick cotton stock that has been beveled and printed in a traditional all script gold engraving.
The whole invitation would be sent in a custom diecut envelope that has a custom printed liner in a matching gold pattern.

Here is a closer look!

What do you guys think?
Here is the original invitation

xo

"That's Wedding Planner Esquire To You, Bub!"

County Dems nominate wedding planner to be DA. Couldn't they find an interior decorator?

Quote of the Day:

I have a great respect and admiration for wedding planners. They play a critical role in certain elements of high society,” said county GOP leader Andrew Reilly. “But when it comes to someone serving as Delaware County’s district attorney, our chief law enforcement officer, I would prefer to have an active, practicing attorney in that role.”


On a more serious note, why not?

Kendell Brown has a law degree and a legal track record and the DA's job is more one of management than it is of actually trying cases. Active, practicing attorneys have proven themselves to be drunks, child molestors, and thieves. The GOP nominee, Jack Whalen, is none of those things. But why not someone with a little business experience outside the cloistered world of the legal profession?

David Landau defends the selection of Brown:

“If you were unemployed, a mechanic, and you haven’t worked in two years because you can’t get a job, that’s still your occupation or profession,” Landau said. “She’s trained as an attorney. I don’t see an issue with this.”

Wait a minute, what's Landau got against mechanics?

"It's Just Money"?

Elwyn sues builder and former boardmember James DeLuca for $1.6 million. According the lawsuit, DeLuca failed to pay his subcontractors for two months last year on the nearly complete $11 million Wechsler Residential Building project.

To see the project finished, Elwyn had cough up the $1.6 million a second time.

"It's just money..." said Elwyn President Sandy Cornelius.

Just money?

My print column is up.

Adding by Subtracting

I love this idea.

DIY inspiration: Dior chandelier shoes

I saw these cute shoes by Dior,the heel is decorated with strand of beads. Think at the effect of these beaded fringes while walking! I was thinking that the look could be copied this way:

1. prepare a few strands of beads (choose light weighted beads)
2. then connect them to a little chain,every strand in every loop
3. glue the chain around the heel
4. you can do several layers

and you're done!


Ho visto queste bellissime scarpe di Dior con il tacco decorato da delle file di perline.Pensate all'effetto di wueste frangette quand si cammina! Penso che quest'effetto si possa replicare in questo modo:

1. infilate diverse file di perline
2. connettetele ad una catenella,un filo in ogni anello
3. incollate la catenella intorno al tacco
4. potete farne diversi strati

ed è fatto!

Jake Fox is Rude...Evidently

Faux pas to deep left!

From the Oriole Insider blog at BaltimoreSun.com:

The Orioles had runners on second and third and no outs in the eighth inning today when Fox came to the plate against Tigers minor leaguer Chance Ruffin. The most important aspect of this story is the score was 13-3 at the time, and both teams had subbed out most of their regulars. Ruffin started the at-bat with three straight balls, but Fox decided to take a rip at a 3-0 pitch in a clear take situation.


It certainly qualified as a breach of baseball etiquette. Swinging 3-0 in a 10-run game with no outs in the eighth inning with a minor league pitcher on the mound is a decent way to make sure you get a fastball in the ribs in your next at-bat. The average fan may not think it was a big deal but Orioles manager Buck Showalter and Tigers manager Jim Leyland certainly did.

I'll never fully understand this but...what exactly is the big deal here? If Buck Showalter had the take sign on or had VERY SPECIFICALLY told Fox to start taking on 3-0 this spring, that's fine. Ignoring your manger is worthy of his scorn.

But this doesn't appear to be the case. Both managers were angry and it seemed to be a simple breach of "baseball etiquette".

But would it have been OK if he swung away at 2-0? 3-1? Swung at the first pitch? Which is it, really? And what would be the difference? And isn't this a spring game? What's the big deal?

"Oh man, you never played the game. You wouldn't understand." Well, I've watched plenty. And when I was watching this 30-3 gem the Rangers put on us....NOBODY STOPPED SWINGING! They scored 16 of those 30 runs in the 8th and 9th innings! They swung away like Merrill!

What did Tigers manager Jim Leyland think about the situation?

“Look, once and for all, it’s not going to affect the team at all. All these people are going to get dramatic about this (expletive), it’s not going to affect this team one bit. Trust me. That’s all reading material. Everybody gets all upset, gets real dramatic ..."


Oh wait...he wasn't talking about Jake Fox swinging at a 3-0 pitch. He was talking about his starting first baseman getting arrested for driving while fall-down drunk! So excuse me if I don't trust HIS sense of perspective! Perhaps Fox could have been forgiven for swinging at a 3-0 pitch....IF HE WAS REALLY, REALLY DRUNK!

(pant, pant, pant)

I mean, really. Screw that noise.

FedEx Follies Continue in Newtown Square

After a month of embarassing shilly shallying in Newtown Square, it was announced last night that Gwen Toyzer, the FedEx account abusing secretary, would be suspended from her job for 20 days without pay.

I was not there, but I am told the disciplining was announced by Commissioner George Wood who read a prepared statement that declared the whole matter "political," announced the punishment and then gaveled the meeting to a close.

Then all hell broke loose.

An objection was raised by Commissioner Joe Catania that the matter had to be voted on by the whole board. But township solicitor Bruce Irvine advised that it didn't. He said Township Manager Jim Sheldrake had the power to unilaterally discipline the employee. Why it took him so long to do so is another question.

More later.

Getting Permission from the Arab League But Not Congress?

President Obama's speech last night to explain to the America people why he decided to bomb Libya didn't work very well for Victor Davis Hanson.

President Obama just gave a weird speech. Part George W. Bush, part trademark Obama — filled with his characteristic split-the-difference, straw-man (“some say, others say”), false-choice tropes.

His support for those “yearning for freedom all around the world” was the sort of interventionist foreign policy that a Senator Obama — if his past reaction to the removal of Saddam Hussein is any indication — would have objected to, especially in the case of sending bombers over an Arab Muslim oil-exporting country. Since Saddam was a far greater monster (gassing thousands is far worse than turning off the water to neighborhoods) than the monsters that Obama now wishes to slay, I think he has confused rather than enlightened his audience.

There was no mention of the Congress. Is he going to ever ask its approval? And if not, why the repeated emphasis on asking others such as the Arab League or the UN for their approval — given that their representatives, unlike ours, are largely not elected?

A fair point. The rest can be found here.

The Oriole Rotation Suddenly in Limbo

Brian Matusz was hit by a line drive in today's simulated game and his status for Saturday's start is in jeopardy.

Brad Bergesen was struck in a similar fashion last week, albeit worse, by all reports.

That leaves Jeremy Guthrie, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and Zach Britton as the only completely healthy starters just three days from Opening Day.

Justin Duchscherer is not due back until April 21st at the earliest. The situations for Matusz and Bergesen remain more cloudy. It is not known if either will be ready for their respective starts on Saturday and Sunday.

The fates seem to be conspiring to give Chris Tillman a spot in the rotation. Eliminating Zach Britton from the conversation (if Britton is sent to Norfolk, it won't be due to performance), Tillman has the lowest ERA of the spring and a quick calculation of FIP shows he has the second lowest FIP (4.29) behind Bergesen (4.20).

But Tillman, seemingly, wasn't given a real fair shake coming into Spring Training. He was behind Jake Arrieta in the competition for the rotation from the beginning. And even though he outpitched nearly everybody else, the organization was tyring to find any way to send him back to Norfolk. With Bergesen, Matusz and Duchscherer banged up (to varying degrees), Tillman may sneak into the rotation and get his shot after all.

The team does not need a fifth starter until April 10th. But Matusz and Bergesen would both have to be healthy to push Tillman to Norfolk. Tillman's going north. And he'd better take advantage of the situation if he wants to stay there.

Blacks Flee Liberal States

Walter Russell Meade on the new migration.

Two milestones in the long, painful decline of the blue social model were reached this week and reported, of all places, in the pages of the very éminence grise of the monde bleu: the New York Times.

The first was a piece of national and historical news: The Census reported that waves of blue state blacks fled the stagnant job opportunities, high taxes and rotten social conditions of the mostly blue northern states to seek better lives for themselves in the south. Bob Herbert, for many years the only regular Black columnist on the New York Times‘ op-ed page, has written his last column before stepping down.

Now, if Democrats would unlock the doors to public schools (and allow vouchers), many black families would flee their schools as well. Afterall, the Times didn't actively prevent Herbert from leaving their plantation.

MORE:

The failure of blue social policy to create an environment which works for Blacks is the most devastating possible indictment of the 20th century liberal enterprise in the United States. Helping Blacks achieve the kind of equality and opportunity long denied them was more than one of many justifications for blue social policy: it was the defining moral task that has challenged and shaped American liberalism for the last fifty years.

Meade's piece is a tour de force. Read it all.

Orioles Cut 8; Nolan Reimold and Mark Hendrickson Among Cuts

From the Official Oriole press release:

ORIOLES TRIM SPRING ROSTER BY EIGHT

 

            The Orioles today announced eight spring training roster cuts, bringing their spring roster to 30 players.

            The Orioles optioned OF NOLAN REIMOLD to Triple-A Norfolk and OF RANDY WINN asked for, and was granted, his unconditional release.

            Non-roster invitees LHP CLAY RAPADA, LHP MARK HENDRICKSON, RHP DAVID RISKE, RHP RYAN DRESE, RHP PAT EGAN and INF NICK GREEN have been assigned to minor league camp.

            With the moves, the Orioles have 30 players in camp including 15 pitchers (one non-roster invitee), five outfielders, seven infielders (one non-roster invitees) and three catchers.

            The Orioles have 39 players on their 40-man major league roster, with 28 of them remaining in camp.

More on these cuts later...

Can Kevin Millwood Win in New York?

So I saw this exchange on Twitter on Friday...

Then about the same time, Craw of Camden Depot had left a comment on my "What is Curt Schilling had remained an Oriole?" post directing me to Jeff Zimmerman's post on FanGraphs about a formula he had devised for extimating wins based on ERA and run support. I put the formula into an Excel spreadsheet and decided to find out who was right. Could Kevin Millwood win 15 games for the Yankees this season?

Projected Winning % = 0.112(Run Support)-0.105(ERA)+0.446
with an R-squared = 0.827

Projected Wins = 0.7 * Games Started * Projected Winning %

I took Millwood's ERA from last season, gave him the same number of starts and gave him the Yankee run support (5.3 r/g) from last season. That netted 10.9 wins which we can round up to 11. However, Millwood pitched better than his ERA would indicate last season when you examine his FIP and xFIP numbers. 

His xFIP was 4.66 and since his Marcel projections put him at 4.68 this season, that seemed like a reasonable assumption to make. Plugging in a 4.66 ERA over 31 starts with the 5.3 runs per game of support gives him 12 wins (11.9).

But what if the Yankees score more? Two seasons ago, the Yanks scored 5.6 runs per game. Using that number with the 4.66 ERA, that gives him 13 wins.

Now, while all this shows that Millwood would fall short, if I plug CC Sabathia's numbers into the calculations, he should have only won 17 games. He actually won 21. That Yankee offense could bring a couple extra wins. That would be 15 wins for Millwood, if everything broke just right.

Millwood's ERA by month for 2010:

ERA
April      3.38
May        4.29
June       8.82
July      10.66
August     3.54
September  3.82

It's one thing to go through a rough patch for a last place team like the Orioles. One has to wonder if Millwood would get the chance to make 31 starts for the Yankees if he hit a similar rough patch. Since he's starting the season in AAA, that makes the odds of getting 30 or more starts even less likely.

So, if Millwood is able to pitch as well as he did last season AND it actually shows up in his ERA AND the Yankee offense performs a little bit better than it did last year AND he gets 31 or more starts AND he gets a little luck...he could win 15 for the Yankees this season. But it seems pretty unlikely.

However, I do think he will surprise a bit and provide quality innings for New York this season. And double digit wins are a definite possibility.

Inspirational Real Rustic Chic Wedding | Yellow & Gray | Apple Barn Farm, NY

I LOVE this Rustic chic wedding that was held in Apple Farms in Livingston, NY
Kristin and Craig chose a yellow and gray color combo which makes everything so cheery and sunny!
Everything from the cake to the table numbers reflects her sunny theme and I just heart all the sun filled pictures of the couple. SO pretty!
Plus I found out Kristin and Craig got married on the same Septemver day that I did! How cool is that?! I know they must have had a crisp sunny day, I LOVE September weddings. Sigh... I miss my wedding, send in more picts of weddings I like to live through them, LOL!

Details:

Photographer:  Turnquist Photography

Hair Stylist:  Casa Urbana

Caterer:  The Corner Lunchbox

Floral Designer:  The Rosery

Reception Venue:  Apple Barn Farm

DJ:  jtd productions

Ceremony Location:  Apple Barn Farm

Linens and Coverings:  Columbia Tent Rentals

Officiant:  Michael Kaufman


xo

Prohibition for Upper Darby?

First Cheers, now Mike Chitwood wants to shut down Fibbers just because of a little shooting. Why not make Upper Darby a dry township? Carrie Nation would approve.

Loving to Hate TARP

Robert Samuelson defends TARP.

One lesson of the financial crisis is this: When the entire financial system succumbs to panic, only the government is powerful enough to prevent a complete collapse. Panics signify the triumph of fear. TARP was part of the process by which fear was overcome. It wasn't the only part, but it was an essential part. Without TARP, we'd be worse off today. No one can say whether unemployment would be 11 percent or 14 percent; it certainly wouldn't be 8.9 percent.

That benefited all Americans. TARP, says Douglas Elliott of the Brookings Institution, "is the best large federal program to be despised by the public."

DIY Jil Sander color block wedges

the inspiration: Jil Sander color palette,Louboutin,Prada,color blocking

Buy a pair of cord wedges

use acrylic colors

protect the shoes from stains with paper scotch tape and use it to define different color areas.
Paint and let it dry.

Limited!

I just saw Limitless with my daughter. It's about a guy who takes a drug called NZT and becomes way smarter and ends up running for public office.

NZT would explain Obama. But it wouldn't explain Obamacare.

This Week in Chat - 3/26/11

Various Oriole related opinions from various chat sessions around the web:

David Shoenfield, ESPN

Matt (Charlotte)
Between Brian Matsuz, Zach Britton & Jake Arrieta, which one do you see as having the better 2011 season for the Orioles?

David Schoenfield (3:15 PM)
Definitely Matusz. His numbers once Showalter took over last year were very, very good.

David Schoenfield (3:15 PM)
Our scouting/minor league guru Keith Law LOVES Britton, by the way. That could be a really nice 1-2 lefty combo for the O's in a couple years.

Jim Callis, Baseball America

Chris (S.I.N.Y): Who makes the biggest impact in the big leagues this season. Gibson, Drabek, Pineda, Britton, McGee or Banuales?

Jim Callis: I think Gibson. Britton may be the best prepared to succeed right now, but he's on a bad team. Banuelos is intriguing, but the Yankees are going to limit him to 140 or so innings, so he may not get a ton of big league starts.

Jonah Keri, FanGraphs

[Comment From Lost in Europe]
When does Britton get a shot with the big club?
1:42
Jonah Keri: I think he's up this season. Could see June/July, to avoid Super 2 status. Love heavy-GB pitchers.

Frankie Pilere, FanGraphs

[Comment From Mozelles]
What team is this years Padres?

12:35
Frankie Piliere: They aren't going to compete seriously for a playoff spot because of the division but the Orioles are going to be at least a very difficult spoiler this year.

[Comment From Luke]
Percentage chance of Rendon or Cole being available to the Orioles at #4????

1:30
Frankie Piliere: 20%. Arbitrary number probably

Dave Cameron, FanGraphs

11:59
[Comment From Jay]
Thoughts on Erik Bedard this year?

12:00
Dave Cameron: He's basically impossible to project, right? He's healthy until he's not, and in general, there aren't any real warning signs with him. He pitches well, then comes off the mound and says his arm hurts. He's throwing really well in Arizona, but who knows what that actually means. His history says he can't be counted on for more than 100 innings, but who really knows, right?

12:04
[Comment From os]
Zach Britton's gonna be a beast - what's your opinion of him this year and long term?

12:04
Dave Cameron: I'm a sucker for high velocity ground ball guys, so Britton is one of the young arms that I'm pretty high on. I think he'll come up mid-summer and be one of the O's better pitchers pretty quickly.

12:07
[Comment From Prince Fielder]
do you see me eating crab cakes in Baltimore for the 2012 season?

12:07
Dave Cameron: Not unless they now have vegetarian crab.

12:20
[Comment From Prince Fielder]
Do you see me eating veggie subs in Baltimore for the 2012 season?

12:20
Dave Cameron: Certainly possible. I'd put Toronto in the mix as well.

Keith Law, ESPN

Mick (Colorado)
Hi KL,O's have targeted HS types in recent drafts, do you think they continue in that direction?

Klaw (3:29 PM)
I have heard they're more inclined to go college this year, although it's early and if the right college guy isn't there I'm sure they'll consider a HS guy. But at worst they'll have Jed Bradley, Hultzen, Gray, and Jungmann all staring them in the face.

Steve (NYC)
You like Travis Snider to bust out this year? 275/350/500 with 30 bombs unreasonable?

Klaw (3:35 PM)
I had Snider, Justin Upton, Wieters, and Bruce all on my breakouts list last year. So, 1) the list sucked and 2) I still like all four guys. (Bruce did break out in the second half, a level I think he'll continue to achieve.)

John (New Brunswick, NJ)
Is Jake Fox legit? Seems like he has the underlying skills, just needs the PT.

Klaw (3:56 PM)
No, PT will be held down by his limited bat.

Scott Shields in Life

Here's a column from 2008 that I wrote about C. Scott Shields. We ran it today's paper with a writer's note.

It was written while Scott was very much alive. That's how I wanted to remember him.

DIY inspiration: fake book bags

Jun Takahashi spring 2011 book bag buy here

Kate Spade book bags spring 2011

What's in a book?Informations,stories,emotions.You don't expect to find in it your wallet or your cell phone.Here you are bags that pretend to be books.There is a fancy cover in the Kate Spade version and the bookmark in the leather version of Jun Takahashi.
I think they look fun and different.
To make one like these you can:

1. unglue the paperboard cover
   
2. glue a piece of fabric in a shape of a V between the the 1° and 4° cover
3. glue a magnetic button

and you're done!

Cosa contiene un libro?Informazioni,racconti,emozioni. Certo non vi aspettate che contenga il vostro cellulare o il vostro portafoglio.Immaginate lo stupore di quelli che vi vedranno aprire il libro per tirar fuori il vostro rossetto.
Ecco a voi una borsa che si finge un libro.C'è la copertina decorata nella versione di Kate Spade e il segnalibro in quella di Jun Takahashi.
Per costruire la vostra borsetta-libro

1. scollate la copertina da un libro
2. incollate tra la prima e la quarta copertina un pezzo di stoffa a forma di v
3. incollate un bottone magnetico

ed è fatta!

Macramè for less

Cavalli 2011

Gucci 2011

Ferragamo 2009

Bershka spring 2011
Asos 2010 clutch

Macramè and crochet dresses made their appereance in spring 2011 runways.Macramè is a textile obtained by knotting the thread.Gucci and Cavalli designs are really sophisticated,i wanted to show you a Ferragamo sweater back from 2009.
If you want to copy this expensive look consider a trip to Bershka they have a couple of options.